Search results for 'Forecasting History' (try it on Scholar)

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  1. William Meyer (2003). Scanning the Skies: A History of Tornado Forecasting. [REVIEW] Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 94:779-780.
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  2. Alexander Mourelatos (2005). The Ancients''Meteorology': Forecasting and Cosmic Natural History. Rhizai. A Journal for Ancient Philosophy and Science 2:279-291.
    A Critical Notice of Liba Taub, Ancient Meteorology, Routledge, London and New York, 2003.
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  3. Carlo Maria Flumiani (1978). The Economic Philosophy of History & the Science of Maximal Prediction. American Classical College Press.
     
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  4. Peter Hayward (2008). Developing Wisdom: How Foresight Develops in Individuals and Groups. Vdm Verlag Dr. Müller.
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  5.  22
    M. A. Gareev (1998). If War Comes Tomorrow?: The Contours of Future Armed Conflict. Frank Cass.
    Military affairs have been affected by major changes in the 19902. The bipolar world of two superpowers has gone. The Cold War and the global military confrontation that accompanied it have ended. A new military and political order has emerged, but the world has not become more stable, indeed, wars and armed conflict have become much more common. Forecasting the contours of future armed conflict is the primary object of this work. Focusing on the impact (...)
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  6. Michio Kaku (2012). 2100 Ke Ji da Wei Lai: Cong Xian Zai Dao 2100 Nian, Ke Ji Jiang Ru He Gai Bian Wo Men de Sheng Huo. Shi Bao Wen Hua Chu Ban Qi Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si.
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  7. Luigi Vinci (2007). Quale Soggetto Per Quale Trasformazione: Note Sul Soggetto Sociale Anticapitalistico, Sulla Sua Forma Politica E Sul Socialismo Agli Albori Del Xxi Secolo. Edizioni Punto Rosso.
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  8. William B. Williams (1995). Future Perfect Present Empowerment a Road Map for Success in the 21st Century. Monograph Collection (Matt - Pseudo).
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  9.  9
    Robert Evans (2007). Social Networks and Private Spaces in Economic Forecasting. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  10.  41
    Benoît Godin (2010). Innovation Without the Word: William F. Ogburn's Contribution to the Study of Technological Innovation. [REVIEW] Minerva 48 (3):277-307.
    The history of innovation as a category is dominated by economists and by the contribution of J. A. Schumpeter. This paper documents the contribution of a neglected but influential author, the American sociologist William F. Ogburn. Over a period of more than 30 years, Ogburn developed pioneering ideas on three dimensions of technological innovation: origins, diffusion, and effects. He also developed the first conceptual framework for innovation studies—based on the concept of cultural lags—which led to studying and forecasting (...)
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  11.  2
    Devon Stillwell (2013). Genetic Counseling in Historical Perspective: Understanding Our Hereditary Past and Forecasting Our Genomic Future. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):618-622.
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  12. Jack Meiland (1973). The Historical Relativism of Charles A. Beard. History and Theory 12 (4):405-413.
    Despite seemingly ambiguous writings, Beard is a relativist. Beard states that if historical conceptions are relative, then relativity is relative; this is not a rejection of relativism. As times change, doctrines become outmoded. Beard's times were right for relativism, so he was a relativist, despite his knowledge of its eventual demise. Relativism cannot provide the historian with a frame of reference to interpret the "totality of history." He must choose a comprehensive and informed frame. Beard seems to indicate that (...)
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  13. Maria Rosa Antognazza (2015). The Benefit to Philosophy of the Study of its History. British Journal for the History of Philosophy 23 (1):161-184.
    This paper advances the view that the history of philosophy is both a kind of history and a kind of philosophy. Through a discussion of some examples from epistemology, metaphysics, and the historiography of philosophy, it explores the benefit to philosophy of a deep and broad engagement with its history. It comes to the conclusion that doing history of philosophy is a way to think outside the box of the current philosophical orthodoxies. (...)
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  14.  15
    Francis Fukuyama (1992/2006). The End of History and the Last Man. Free Press ;.
    Ever since its first publication in 1992, The End of History and the Last Man has provoked controversy and debate. Francis Fukuyama's prescient analysis of religious fundamentalism, politics, scientific progress, ethical codes, and war is as essential for a world fighting fundamentalist terrorists as it was for the end of the Cold War. Now updated with a new afterword, The End of History and the Last Man is a modern classic.
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  15. Hilary Putnam (1981). Reason, Truth, and History. Cambridge University Press.
    Hilary Putnam deals in this book with some of the most fundamental persistent problems in philosophy: the nature of truth, knowledge and rationality. His aim is to break down the fixed categories of thought which have always appeared to define and constrain the permissible solutions to these problems.
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  16. Ericka Tucker (2013). The Subject of History: Historical Subjectivity and Historical Science. Journal of the Philosophy of History 7 (2):205-229.
    In this paper, I show how the phenomenological and hermeneutic traditions and method converge on their treatment of the historical subject. Thinkers from both traditions claim that subjectivity is shaped by a historical worldview. Each tradition provides an account of how these worldviews are shaped, and thus how essentially historical subjective experience is molded. I argue that both traditions, although offering helpful ways of understanding the way history shapes subjectivity, go too far in their epistemic claims for the (...)
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  17.  15
    Joeri Witteveen (forthcoming). Suppressing Synonymy with a Homonym: The Emergence of the Nomenclatural Type Concept in Nineteenth Century Natural History. Journal of the History of Biology.
    Type’ in biology is a polysemous term. In a landmark article, Paul Farber (Journal of the History of Biology 9(1): 93–119, 1976) argued that this deceptively plain term had acquired three different meanings in early nineteenth century natural history alone. ‘Type’ was used in relation to three distinct type concepts, each of them associated with a different set of practices. Important as Farber’s analysis has been for the historiography of natural history, his account conceals (...)
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  18.  58
    Robert A. Wilson (2015). The Role of Oral History in Surviving a Eugenic Past. In Steven High (ed.), Beyond Testimony and Trauma: Oral History in the Aftermath of Mass Violence. 119-138.
    Despite the fact that the history of eugenics in Canada is necessarily part of the larger history of eugenics, there is a special role for oral history to play in the telling of this story, a role that promises to shift us from the muddled middle of the story. Not only has the testimony of eugenics survivors already played perhaps the most important role in revealing much about the practice of eugenics in Canada, but the willingness and (...)
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  19. Paul Redding (2013). The Necessity of History for Philosophy – Even Analytic Philosophy. Journal of the Philosophy of History 7 (3):299-325.
    Analytic philosophers are often said to be indifferent or even hostile to the history of philosophy – that is, not to the idea of history of philosophy as such, but regarded as a species of the genus philosophy rather than the genus history. Here it is argued that such an attitude is actually inconsistent with approaches within the philosophies of mind that are typical within analytic philosophy. It is suggested that the common “argument rather (...)
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  20.  11
    Marianne Sommer (2008). History in the Gene: Negotiations Between Molecular and Organismal Anthropology. [REVIEW] Journal of the History of Biology 41 (3):473 - 528.
    In the advertising discourse of human genetic database projects, of genetic ancestry tracing companies, and in popular books on anthropological genetics, what I refer to as the anthropological gene and genome appear as documents of human history, by far surpassing the written record and oral history in scope and accuracy as archives of our past. How did macromolecules become "documents of human evolutionary history"? Historically, molecular anthropology, a term introduced by Emile Zuckerkandl in 1962 to characterize the (...)
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  21.  30
    Gary Hatfield (2005). The History of Philosophy as Philosophy. In Tom Sorell & G. A. J. Rogers (eds.), Analytic Philosophy and History of Philosophy. Oxford University Press 82-128.
    The chapter begins with an initial survey of ups and downs of contextualist history of philosophy during the twentieth century in Britain and America, which finds that historically serious history of philosophy has been on the rise. It then considers ways in which the study of past philosophy has been used and is used in philosophy, and makes a case for the philosophical value and necessity of a contextually oriented approach. It examines some uses of past (...)
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  22. Ian Hunter (2007). The History of Philosophy and the Persona of the Philosopher. Modern Intellectual History 4 (3):571-600.
    Although history is the pre-eminent part of the gallant sciences, philosophers advise against it from fear that it might completely destroy the kingdom of darkness—that is, scholastic philosophy—which previously has been wrongly held to be a necessary instrument of theology.
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  23. Pauline Kleingeld (1999). Kant, History, and the Idea of Moral Development. History of Philosophy Quarterly 16 (1):59-80.
    I examine the consistency of Kant's notion of moral progress as found in his philosophy of history. To many commentators, Kant's very idea of moral development has seemed inconsistent with basic tenets of his critical philosophy. This idea has seemed incompatible with his claims that the moral law is unconditionally and universally valid, that moral agency is noumenal and atemporal, and that all humans are equally free. Against these charges, I argue not only that Kant's notion of moral (...)
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  24.  4
    James Alexander (forthcoming). The Philosophy of Political History in Oakeshott and Collingwood. New Content is Available for Journal of the Philosophy of History.
    _ Source: _Page Count 25 Every political philosopher has a philosophy of political history, if sometimes not a very good one. Oakeshott and Collingwood are two twentieth century political philosophers who were particularly concerned with the significance of history for political philosophy; and who both, in the 1940s, sketched what I call philosophies of political history: that is, systematic schemes which could make sense of the entire history of political philosophy. In this (...)
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  25.  4
    Michael Beaney (forthcoming). Historiography, Philosophy of History and the Historical Turn in Analytic Philosophy. New Content is Available for Journal of the Philosophy of History.
    _ Source: _Page Count 24 This article has three main interconnected aims. First, I illustrate the historiographical conceptions of three early analytic philosophers: Frege, Russell and Wittgenstein. Second, I consider some of the historiographical debates that have been generated by the recent historical turn in analytic philosophy, looking at the work of Scott Soames and Hans-Johann Glock, in particular. Third, I discuss Arthur Danto’s _Analytic Philosophy of History_, published 50 years ago, and argue for a reinvigorated analytic philosophy of (...). (shrink)
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  26.  4
    Craig Lundy (2016). The Necessity and Contingency of Universal History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 10 (1):51-75.
    _ Source: _Volume 10, Issue 1, pp 51 - 75 History occupies a somewhat awkward position in the work of Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari. Although they often criticise history as a practice and advance alternatives that are explicitly anti-historical, such as ‘nomadology’ and ‘geophilosophy’, their scholarship is nevertheless littered with historical encounters and deeply influenced by historians such as Fernand Braudel. One of Deleuze and Guattari’s more significant engagements with history occurs through their (...)
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  27. Aaron D. Cobb (2011). History and Scientific Practice in the Construction of an Adequate Philosophy of Science: Revisiting a Whewell/Mill Debate. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 42 (1):85-93.
    William Whewell raised a series of objections concerning John Stuart Mill’s philosophy of science which suggested that Mill’s views were not properly informed by the history of science or by adequate reflection on scientific practices. The aim of this paper is to revisit and evaluate this incisive Whewellian criticism of Mill’s views by assessing Mill’s account of Michael Faraday’s discovery of electrical induction. The historical evidence demonstrates that Mill’s reconstruction is an inadequate reconstruction of this historical episode and (...)
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  28.  11
    Jan Plamper (2010). The History of Emotions: An Interview with William Reddy, Barbara Rosenwein, and Peter Stearns. History and Theory 49 (2):237-265.
    The history of emotions is a burgeoning field—so much so, that some are invoking an “emotional turn.” As a way of charting this development, I have interviewed three of the leading practitioners of the history of emotions: William Reddy, Barbara Rosenwein, and Peter Stearns. The interviews retrace each historian’s intellectual-biographical path to the history of emotions, recapitulate key concepts, and critically discuss the limitations of the available analytical tools. In doing so, they touch on Reddy’s concepts of (...)
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  29.  86
    Serge Grigoriev (2012). Dewey: A Pragmatist View of History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 6 (2):173-194.
    Despite the centrality of the idea of history to Dewey's overall philosophical outlook, his brief treatment of philosophical issues in history has never attracted much attention, partly because of the dearth of the available material. Nonetheless, as argued in this essay, what we do have provides for the outlines of a comprehensive pragmatist view of history distinguished by an emphasis on methodological pluralism and a principled opposition to thinking of historical knowledge in correspondence terms. (...)
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  30.  14
    J. B. Schneewind (1998). The Invention of Autonomy: A History of Modern Moral Philosophy. Cambridge University Press.
    This remarkable book is the most comprehensive study ever written of the history of moral philosophy in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Its aim is to set Kant's still influential ethics in its historical context by showing in detail what the central questions in moral philosophy were for him and how he arrived at his own distinctive ethical views. The book is organised into four main sections, each exploring moral philosophy by discussing the work of many influential philosophers of (...)
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  31.  18
    Richard W. Burkhardt (1999). Ethology, Natural History, the Life Sciences, and the Problem of Place. Journal of the History of Biology 32 (3):489 - 508.
    Investigators of animal behavior since the eighteenth century have sought to make their work integral to the enterprises of natural history and/or the life sciences. In their efforts to do so, they have frequently based their claims of authority on the advantages offered by the special places where they have conducted their research. The zoo, the laboratory, and the field have been major settings for animal behavior studies. The issue of the relative advantages of these different sites has (...)
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  32.  84
    Anya Plutynski (2011). Four Problems of Abduction: A Brief History. Hopos: The Journal of the International Society for the History of Philosophy of Science 1 (2):227-248.
    Debates concerning the character, scope, and warrant of abductive inference have been active since Peirce first proposed that there was a third form of inference, distinct from induction and deduction. Abductive reasoning has been dubbed weak, incoherent, and even nonexistent. Part, at least, of the problem of articulating a clear sense of abductive inference is due to difficulty in interpreting Peirce. Part of the fault must lie with his critics, however. While this article will argue that Peirce indeed left a (...)
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  33.  21
    R. G. Collingwood (1993). The Idea of History. Oxford University Press.
    The Idea of History is the best-known book of the great Oxford philosopher, historian, and archaeologist R.G. Collingwood. It was originally published posthumously in 1946, having been mainly reconstructed from Collingwood's manuscripts, many of which are now lost. For this revised edition, Collingwood's most important lectures on the philosophy of history are published here for the first time. These texts have been prepared by Jan van der Dussen from manuscripts that have only recently become available. The (...)
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  34.  66
    Immanuel Kant (2007). Anthropology, History, and Education. Cambridge University Press.
    Anthropology, History, and Education contains all of Kant's major writings on human nature. Some of these works, which were published over a thirty-nine year period between 1764 and 1803, have never before been translated into English. Kant's question 'What is the human being?' is approached indirectly in his famous works on metaphysics, epistemology, moral and legal philosophy, aesthetics and the philosophy of religion, but it is approached directly in his extensive but less well-known writings on physical and cultural anthropology, (...)
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  35.  4
    Mary E. Sunderland (2013). Modernizing Natural History: Berkeley's Museum of Vertebrate Zoology in Transition. [REVIEW] Journal of the History of Biology 46 (3):369-400.
    Throughout the twentieth century calls to modernize natural history motivated a range of responses. It was unclear how research in natural history museums would participate in the significant technological and conceptual changes that were occurring in the life sciences. By the 1960s, the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at the University of California, Berkeley, was among the few university-based natural history museums that were able to maintain their specimen collections and support active research. The MVZ (...)
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  36.  4
    David L. Marshall (2013). The Implications of Robert Brandom's Inferentialism for Intellectual History. History and Theory 52 (1):1-31.
    Quentin Skinner’s appropriation of speech act theory for intellectual history has been extremely influential. Even as the model continues to be important for historians, however, philosophers now regard the original speech act theory paradigm as dated. Are there more recent initiatives that might reignite theoretical work in this area? This article argues that the inferentialism of Robert Brandom is one of the most interesting contemporary philosophical projects with historical implications. It shows how Brandom’s work emerged out of the (...)
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  37.  92
    Alix A. Cohen (2008). Kant's Biological Conception of History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 2 (1):1-28.
    The aim of this paper is to argue that Kant's philosophy of biology has crucial implications for our understanding of his philosophy of history, and that overlooking these implications leads to a fundamental misconstruction of his views. More precisely, I will show that Kant's philosophy of history is modelled on his philosophy of biology due to the fact that the development of the human species shares a number of peculiar features with the functioning of organisms, these (...)
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  38.  34
    Joan W. Scott (2012). The Incommensurability of Psychoanalysis and History. History and Theory 51 (1):63-83.
    ABSTRACTThis article argues that, although psychoanalysis and history have different conceptions of time and causality, there can be a productive relationship between them. Psychoanalysis can force historians to question their certainty about facts, narrative, and cause; it introduces disturbing notions about unconscious motivation and the effects of fantasy on the making of history. This was not the case with the movement for psychohistory that began in the 1970s. Then the influence of American ego‐psychology on history‐writing promoted the (...)
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  39.  3
    M. Eulàlia Gassó Miracle (2008). The Significance of Temminck's Work on Biogeography: Early Nineteenth Century Natural History in Leiden, the Netherlands. [REVIEW] Journal of the History of Biology 41 (4):677 - 716.
    C. J. Temminck, director of the Rijksmuseum van Natuurlijke Historie (now the National Museum of Natural History in Leiden) and a renowned ornithologist, gained his contemporary's respect thanks to the description of many new species and to his detailed monographs on birds. He also published a small number of works on biogeography describing the fauna of the Dutch colonies in South East Asia and Japan. These works are remarkable for two reasons. First, in them Temminck accurately described the (...)
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  40.  74
    Noël Carroll (2011). History and the Philosophy of Art. Journal of the Philosophy of History 5 (3):370-382.
    In this essay I trace the role of history in the philosophy of art from the early twentieth century to the present, beginning with the rejection of history by formalists like Clive Bell. I then attempt to show how the arguments of people like Morris Weitz and Arthur Danto led to a re-appreciation of history by philosophers of art such as Richard Wollheim, Jerrold Levinson, Robert Stecker and others.
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  41.  17
    Michael R. Matthews (2014). Pendulum Motion: A Case Study in How History and Philosophy Can Contribute to Science Education. In International Handbook of Research in History, Philosophy and Science Teaching. Springer 19-56.
    The pendulum has had immense scientific, cultural, social and philosophical impact. Historical, methodological and philosophical studies of pendulum motion can assist teachers to improve science education by developing enriched curricular material, and by showing connections between pendulum studies and other parts of the school programme, especially mathematics, social studies, technology and music. The pendulum is a universal topic in high-school science programmes and some elementary science courses; an enriched approach to its study can result in deepened science literacy across the (...)
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  42.  35
    D. Timothy Goering (2013). Concepts, History and the Game of Giving and Asking for Reasons: A Defense of Conceptual History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 7 (3):426-452.
    This article offers a defense of the theoretical foundations of Conceptual History. While Conceptual History has successfully established itself as an historical discipline, details in the philosophy of language that underpin Conceptual History continue to be opaque. Specifically the definition of what constitutes a “basic concept” remains problematic. Reinhart Koselleck famously claimed that basic concepts are “more than words,” but he never spelled out how these abstract entities relate to words or can be subject to semantic (...)
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  43.  31
    Jouni-Matti Kuukkanen (2009). Towards a Philosophy of the History of Thought? Journal of the Philosophy of History 3 (1):25-54.
    There are a large number of disciplines that are interested in the theoretical aspects of the history of thought. Their perspectives and subjects may vary, but fundamentally they have a common research interest: the history of human thinking and its products. Despite this, they are studied in relative isolation. I argue that having different subjects as specific objects of research, such as political or scientific thinking, is not a valid justification for the separation. I propose the (...)
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  44.  3
    Simon T. Kaye (2010). Challenging Certainty: The Utility and History of Counterfactualism. History and Theory 49 (1):38-57.
    Counterfactualism is a useful process for historians as a thought-experiment because it offers grounds to challenge an unfortunate contemporary historical mindset of assumed, deterministic certainty. This article suggests that the methodological value of counterfactualism may be understood in terms of the three categories of common ahistorical errors that it may help to prevent: the assumptions of indispensability, causality, and inevitability. To support this claim, I survey a series of key counterfactual works and reflections on counterfactualism, arguing that the practice of (...)
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  45.  53
    Stephen Gaukroger (2011). What Does History Matter to the History of Philosophy? Journal of the Philosophy of History 5 (3):406-424.
  46.  65
    Joseph Margolis (2011). Toward a Theory of Human History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 4 (3-4):245-273.
    I show the sense in which the concept of history as a human science affects our theory of the natural sciences and, therefore, our theory of the unity of the physical and human sciences. The argument proceeds by way of reviewing the effect of the Darwinian contribution regarding teleologism and of post-Darwinian paleonanthropology on the transformation of the primate members of Homo sapiens into societies of historied selves. The strategy provides a novel way of recovering the unity of (...)
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  47.  1
    Mark A. Winstanley (forthcoming). Genetic Epistemology, a Universalist Approach to the History of Science. New Content is Available for Journal of the Philosophy of History.
    _ Source: _Page Count 30 GER Lloyd discerns two conflicting hypotheses concerning human cognition: cross-cultural universality and cultural relativity. The history of science is one discipline among many actively contributing to our understanding of human cognition at present. Not surprisingly, then, the dichotomy is also present in the history of science. In contrast to current approaches to the history of science, which highlight cultural relativity, genetic epistemology, which is conceived by Jean Piaget as a (...)
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  48.  1
    Adam Timmins (2016). Towards an Evolutionary Epistemology of History. Journal of the Philosophy of History 10 (1):98-115.
    _ Source: _Volume 10, Issue 1, pp 98 - 115 What has come to be known as the ‘linguistic turn’ in historical theory over the past forty years or so has finished what the two World Wars began in demolishing the confidence that the historical discipline possessed at the turn of the twentieth century. This confidence was most memorably expressed by Lord Acton that one day we would possess ‘ultimate history’. Today most historians are probably more inclined to subscribe (...)
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  49.  10
    James Llana (2000). Natural History and the "Encyclopédie". Journal of the History of Biology 33 (1):1 - 25.
    The general popularity of natural history in the eighteenth century is mirrored in the frequency and importance of the more than 4,500 articles on natural history in the "Encyclopédie". The main contributors to natural history were Daubenton, Diderot, Jaucourt and d'Holbach, but some of the key animating principles derive from Buffon, who wrote nothing specifically for the "Encyclopédie". Still, a number of articles reflect his thinking, especially his antipathy toward Linnaeus. There was in principle (...)
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  50.  9
    Mark V. Barrow (2000). The Specimen Dealer: Entrepreneurial Natural History in America's Gilded Age. [REVIEW] Journal of the History of Biology 33 (3):493 - 534.
    The post-Civil War American natural history craze spawned a new institution -- the natural history dealer -- that has failed to receive the historical attention it deserves. The individuals who created these enterprises simultaneously helped to promote and hoped to profit from the burgeoning interest in both scientific and popular specimen collecting. At a time when other employment and educational prospects in natural history were severely limited, hundreds of dealers across the nation provided encouragement, (...)
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