Search results for 'Forecasting Methodology' (try it on Scholar)

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  1. Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
     
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  2.  4
    Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David (2005). Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930. Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.
    This paper examines some economic forecasts made in late 1930 that were intended to predict economic activity in the United States in order to shed light on several methodological issues. We document that these forecasts were extremely optimistic, predicting that the recession in the US would soon end, and that 1931 would show a recovery. These forecasts displayed egregious errors, because 1931 witnessed the largest negative growth rate for the US economy in any year in the twentieth century. A specific (...)
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  3. Michio Kaku (1997). Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century. Anchor Books.
    In a spellbinding narrative that skillfully weaves together cutting-edge research among today's foremost scientists, theoretical physicist Michio Kaku--author of the bestselling book Hyperspace --presents a bold, exhilarating adventure into the science of tomorrow. In Visions, Dr. Kaku examines in vivid detail how the three scientific revolutions that profoundly reshaped the twentieth century--the quantum, biogenetic, and computer revolutions--will transform the way we live in the twenty-first century. The fundamental elements of matter and life--the particles of the atom and the nucleus of (...)
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  4.  20
    Peter Coles (2006). From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability. Oxford University Press.
    Cosmology has undergone a revolution in recent years. The exciting interplay between astronomy and fundamental physics has led to dramatic revelations, including the existence of the dark matter and the dark energy that appear to dominate our cosmos. But these discoveries only reveal themselves through small effects in noisy experimental data. Dealing with such observations requires the careful application of probability and statistics. But it is not only in the arcane world of fundamental physics that probability theory plays such an (...)
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  5.  5
    J. B. Nation (ed.) (2003). Formal Descriptions of Developing Systems. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    A cutting-edge survey of formal methods directed specifically at dealing with the deep mathematical problems engendered by the study of developing systems, in particular dealing with developing phase spaces, changing components, structures and functionalities, and the problem of emergence. Several papers deal with the modelling of particular experimental situations in population biology, economics and plant and muscle developments in addition to purely theoretical approaches. Novel approaches include differential inclusions and viability theory, growth tensors, archetypal dynamics, ensembles with variable structures, and (...)
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  6.  2
    Nicholas Rescher (1997). Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting. State University of New York Press.
    Develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems.
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  7. Jessica M. Wilson (2013). Three Dogmas of Metaphysical Methodology. In Matthew Haug (ed.), Philosophical Methodology: The Armchair or the Laboratory? Routledge 145-165.
    In what does philosophical progress consist? 'Vertical' progress corresponds to development within a specific paradigm/framework for theorizing (of the sort associated, revolutions aside, with science); 'horizontal' progress corresponds to the identification and cultivation of diverse paradigms (of the sort associated, conservativism aside, with art and pure mathematics). Philosophical progress seems to involve both horizontal and vertical dimensions, in a way that is somewhat puzzling: philosophers work in a number of competing frameworks (like artists or mathematicians), while typically maintaining that only (...)
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  8.  81
    Christian List & Laura Valentini (forthcoming). The Methodology of Political Theory. In Oxford Handbook of Philosophical Methodology. Oxford University Press
    Political theory, sometimes also called “normative political theory”, is a subfield of the disciplines of philosophy and political science that addresses conceptual, normative, and evaluative questions concerning politics and society, broadly construed. Examples are: When is a society just? What does it mean for its members to be free? When is one distribution of goods socially preferable to another? What makes a political authority legitimate? How should we trade off different values, such as liberty, prosperity, and security, against one another? (...)
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  9. Jack Reynolds & Patrick Stokes (forthcoming). Writing the First Person: Existentialist Methodology and Perspective. In Soren Overgaard & Giuseppina D'Oro (eds.), Cambridge Companion to Philosophical Methodology. Cambridge UP
    Without proposing anything quite so grandiose as a return to existentialism, in this paper we aim to articulate and minimally defend certain core existentialist insights concerning the first-person perspective, the relationship between theory and practice, and the mode of philosophical presentation conducive to best making those points. We will do this by considering some of the central methodological objections that have been posed around the role of the first-person perspective and “lived experience” in the contemporary literature, before providing some neo-existentialist (...)
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  10.  30
    Benjamin C. Jantzen, Deborah G. Mayo & Lydia Patton (2015). Ontology & Methodology. Synthese 192 (11):3413-3423.
    Philosophers of science have long been concerned with the question of what a given scientific theory tells us about the contents of the world, but relatively little attention has been paid to how we set out to build theories and to the relevance of pre-theoretical methodology on a theory’s interpretation. In the traditional view, the form and content of a mature theory can be separated from any tentative ontological assumptions that went into its development. For this reason, (...)
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  11. Murat Aydede (ed.) (2005). Pain: New Essays on its Nature and the Methodology of its Study. MIT Press.
    What does feeling a sharp pain in one's hand have in common with seeing a red apple on the table? Some say not much, apart from the fact that they are both conscious experiences. To see an object is to perceive an extramental reality -- in this case, a red apple. To feel a pain, by contrast, is to undergo a conscious experience that doesn't necessarily relate the subject to an objective reality. Perceptualists, however, dispute this. They say that both (...)
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  12. James Woodward (2015). Methodology, Ontology, and Interventionism. Synthese 192 (11):3577-3599.
    This paper defends an interventionist account of causation by construing this account as a contribution to methodology, rather than as a set of theses about the ontology or metaphysics of causation. It also uses the topic of causation to raise some more general issues about the relation between, on the one hand, methodology, and, on the other hand, ontology and metaphysics, as these are understood in contemporary philosophical discussion, particularly among so-called analytic metaphysicians. It concludes with the suggestion (...)
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  13. Imre Lakatos (1978). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press.
    Imre Lakatos' philosophical and scientific papers are published here in two volumes. Volume I brings together his very influential but scattered papers on the philosophy of the physical sciences, and includes one important unpublished essay on the effect of Newton's scientific achievement. Volume II presents his work on the philosophy of mathematics (much of it unpublished), together with some critical essays on contemporary philosophers of science and some famous polemical writings on political and educational issues. Imre Lakatos had an influence (...)
     
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  14.  63
    James Justus (2012). Carnap on Concept Determination: Methodology for Philosophy of Science. [REVIEW] European Journal for Philosophy of Science 2 (2):161-179.
    Abstract Recent criticisms of intuition from experimental philosophy and elsewhere have helped undermine the authority of traditional conceptual analysis. As the product of more empirically informed philosophical methodology, this result is compelling and philosophically salutary. But the negative critiques rarely suggest a positive alternative. In particular, a normative account of concept determination—how concepts should be characterized—is strikingly absent from such work. Carnap's underappreciated theory of explication provides such a theory. Analyses of complex concepts in empirical sciences illustrates and supports (...)
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  15.  10
    Kenneth Einar Himma (2015). Conceptual Jurisprudence. An Introduction to Conceptual Analysis and Methodology in Legal Theory. Revus 26.
    This essay attempts to provide an accessible introduction to the topic area of conceptual analysis of legal concepts and its methodology. I attempt to explain, at a fairly foundational level, what conceptual analysis is, how it is done and why it is important in theorizing about the law. I also attempt to explain how conceptual analysis is related to other areas in philosophy, such as metaphysics and epistemology. Next, I explain the enterprise of conceptual jurisprudence, as concerned to provide (...)
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  16.  19
    Lucy Frith (2012). Symbiotic Empirical Ethics: A Practical Methodology. Bioethics 26 (4):198-206.
    Like any discipline, bioethics is a developing field of academic inquiry; and recent trends in scholarship have been towards more engagement with empirical research. This ‘empirical turn’ has provoked extensive debate over how such ‘descriptive’ research carried out in the social sciences contributes to the distinctively normative aspect of bioethics. This paper will address this issue by developing a practical research methodology for the inclusion of data from social science studies into ethical deliberation. This methodology will be based (...)
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  17. Vadim V. Vasilyev (2013). Hume's Methodology and the Science of Human Nature. History of Philosophy Yearbook 2012:62-115.
    In this paper I try to explain a strange omission in Hume’s methodological descriptions in his first Enquiry. In the course of this explanation I reveal a kind of rationalistic tendency of the latter work. It seems to contrast with “experimental method” of his early Treatise of Human Nature, but, as I show that there is no discrepancy between the actual methods of both works, I make an attempt to explain the change in Hume’s characterization of his own methods. This (...)
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  18. Lars-Göran Johansson & Keizo Matsubara (2011). String Theory and General Methodology: A Mutual Evaluation. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B 42 (3):199-210.
    String theory has been the dominating research field in theoretical physics during the last decades. Despite the considerable time elapse, no new testable predictions have been derived by string theorists and it is understandable that doubts have been voiced. Some people have argued that it is time to give up since testability is wanting. But the majority has not been convinced and they continue to believe that string theory is the right way to go. This situation is (...)
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  19.  45
    D. Napoletani, M. Panza & D. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, (...)
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  20.  46
    Gregor Betz (2010). What’s the Worst Case? The Methodology of Possibilistic Prediction. Analyse & Kritik 32 (1):87-106.
    Frank Knight (1921) famously distinguished the epistemic modes of certainty, risk, and uncertainty in order to characterize situations where deterministic, probabilistic or possibilistic foreknowledge is available. Because our probabilistic knowledge is limited, i.e. because many systems, e.g. the global climate, cannot be described and predicted probabilistically in a reliable way, Knight's third category, possibilistic foreknowledge, is not simply swept by the probabilistic mode. This raises the question how to justify possibilistic predictionsincluding the identication of the worst case. The development of (...)
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  21.  69
    Thomas Eberle (2010). The Phenomenological Life-World Analysis and the Methodology of the Social Sciences. Human Studies 33 (2):123-139.
    This Alfred Schutz Memorial Lecture discusses the relationship between the phenomenological life-world analysis and the methodology of the social sciences, which was the central motive of Schutz’s work. I have set two major goals in this lecture. The first is to scrutinize the postulate of adequacy, as this postulate is the most crucial of Schutz’s methodological postulates. Max Weber devised the postulate ‘adequacy of meaning’ in analogy to the postulate of ‘causal adequacy’ (a concept used in jurisprudence) and regarded (...)
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  22.  56
    Donald Thomas Campbell (1988). Methodology and Epistemology for Social Science: Selected Papers. University of Chicago Press.
    Since the 1950s, Donald T. Campbell has been one of the most influential contributors to the methodology of the social sciences. A distinguished psychologist, he has published scores of widely cited journal articles, and two awards, in social psychology and in public policy, have been named in his honor. This book is the first to collect his most significant papers, and it demonstrates the breadth and originality of his work.
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  23. Nicholas Shackel (2005). The Vacuity of Postmodernist Methodology. Metaphilosophy 36 (3):295-320.
    Many of the philosophical doctrines purveyed by postmodernists have been roundly refuted, yet people continue to be taken in by the dishonest devices used in proselytizing for postmodernism. I exhibit, name, and analyse five favourite rhetorical manoeuvres: Troll's Truisms, Motte and Bailey Doctrines, Equivocating Fulcra, the Postmodernist Fox Trot, and Rankly Relativising Fields. Anyone familiar with postmodernist writing will recognise their pervasive hold on the dialectic of postmodernism and come to judge that dialectic as it ought to be judged.
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  24.  67
    Hugo Fjelsted Alrøe & Erik Steen Kristensen (2002). Towards a Systemic Research Methodology in Agriculture: Rethinking the Role of Values in Science. [REVIEW] Agriculture and Human Values 19 (1):3-23.
    The recent drastic developmentof agriculture, together with the growingsocietal interest in agricultural practices andtheir consequences, pose a challenge toagricultural science. There is a need forrethinking the general methodology ofagricultural research. This paper takes somesteps towards developing a systemic researchmethodology that can meet this challenge – ageneral self-reflexive methodology that forms abasis for doing holistic or (with a betterterm) wholeness-oriented research and providesappropriate criteria of scientific quality.From a philosophy of research perspective,science is seen as an interactive learningprocess with both (...)
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  25.  38
    Nicholas Rescher (2001). Philosophical Reasoning: A Study in the Methodology of Philosophizing. Blackwell Publishers.
    This book is a study in the methodology of philosophical inquiry.
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  26.  23
    Gabriel Henriques (2014). In Search of Collective Experience and Meaning: A Transcendental Phenomenological Methodology for Organizational Research. Human Studies 37 (4):451-468.
    The Husserlian phenomenological approach to organisational research as a way to understand how collectives experience and mean their work context, is rarely used although, when it is, it often functions as a negative criticism of objectivist methods. The sociological potential of phenomenological concepts to enable understanding of subjective experience of social contexts, and the characterisation of those social contexts through ideal type construction, deserves to be used more extensively in a positive proposal of organisational research methodologies. However, a consistent phenomenological (...)
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  27.  46
    Scott Scheall, Lesser Degrees of Explanation: Some Implications of F.A. Hayek’s Methodology of Sciences of Complex Phenomena.
    From the early-1950s on, F.A. Hayek was concerned with the development of a methodology of sciences that study systems of complex phenomena. Hayek argued that the knowledge that can be acquired about such systems is, in virtue of their complexity (and the comparatively narrow boundaries of human cognitive faculties), relatively limited. The paper aims to elucidate the implications of Hayek’s methodology with respect to the specific dimensions along which the scientist’s knowledge of some complex phenomena may be limited. (...)
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  28.  14
    M. C. Bettoni (2007). The Yerkish Language: From Operational Methodology to Chimpanzee Communication. Constructivist Foundations 2 (2-3):32-38.
    Purpose: Yerkish is an artificial language created in 1971 for the specific purpose of exploring the linguistic potential of nonhuman primates. The aim of this paper is to remind the research community of some important issues and concepts related to Yerkish that seem to have been forgotten or appear to be distorted. These are, particularly, its success, its promising aspects for future research and last but not least that it was Ernst von Glasersfeld who invented Yerkish: he coined the term (...)
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  29.  4
    Chris Durante (2009). Bioethics in a Pluralistic Society: Bioethical Methodology in Lieu of Moral Diversity. [REVIEW] Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy 12 (1):35-47.
    In an attempt to promote in-depth dialogue amongst bioethicists coming from distinct disciplinary and religious backgrounds this essay offers a critical analysis of a number of the leading methods of addressing pluralism in bioethics and. Exploring the critiques and methodological proposals coming from the social sciences, the contract theorists, and the pragmatists, this study describes the problems which arise when confronting moral diversity in a bioethical context and examines the ability of these various methodologies to adequately resolve these matters. Finally, (...)
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  30.  30
    Maria Kon & Kristie Miller (2015). Temporal Experience: Models, Methodology and Empirical Evidence. Topoi 34 (1):201-216.
    This paper has two aims. First, to bring together the models of temporal phenomenology on offer and to present these using a consistent set of distinctions and terminologies. Second, to examine the methodologies currently practiced in the development of these models. To that end we present an abstract characterisation in which we catalogue all extant models. We then argue that neither of the two extreme methodologies currently discussed is suitable to the task of developing a model of temporal phenomenology. An (...)
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  31.  49
    Janet Levin (2013). Armchair Methodology and Epistemological Naturalism. Synthese 190 (18):4117-4136.
    In traditional armchair methodology, philosophers attempt to challenge a thesis of the form ‘F iff G’ or ‘F only if G’ by describing a scenario that elicits the intuition that what has been described is an F that isn’t G. If they succeed, then the judgment that there is, or could be, an F that is not G counts as good prima facie evidence against the target thesis. Moreover, if these intuitions remain compelling after further (good faith) reflection, then (...)
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  32.  4
    Lisa Leimar Price (2001). Demystifying Farmers' Entomological and Pest Management Knowledge: A Methodology for Assessing the Impacts on Knowledge From IPM-FFS and NES Interventions. [REVIEW] Agriculture and Human Values 18 (2):153-176.
    Enhancing the environmental soundness of agricultural practices, particularly in high input systems, is of increasing concern to those involved in agricultural research and development. The Integrated Pest Management Farmer Field School, which is based on farmer participatory environmental education, is compared to the No Early Spray intervention, which is a simple rule approach. A research methodology was developed and tested in the Philippines to document farmers' pre- and post-intervention knowledge of rice field insects, insect/plant interactions, and pesticides. The results (...)
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  33.  35
    Jutta Schickore (2011). What Does History Matter to Philosophy of Science? The Concept of Replication and the Methodology of Experiments. Journal of the Philosophy of History 5 (3):513-532.
    Scientists and philosophers generally agree that the replication of experiments is a key ingredient of good and successful scientific practice. “One-offs“ are not significant; experiments must be replicable to be considered valid and important. But the term “replication“ has been used in a number of ways, and it is therefore quite difficult to appraise the meaning and significance of replications. I consider how history may help - and has helped - with this task. I propose that: 1) Studies of past (...)
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  34.  51
    Thomas A. Boylan & Paschal F. O'Gorman (2003). Pragmatism in Economic Methodology: The Duhem-Quine Thesis Revisited. [REVIEW] Foundations of Science 8 (1):3-21.
    Contemporary developments in economicmethodology have produced a vibrant agenda ofcompeting positions. These include, amongothers, constructivism, critical realism andrhetoric, with each contributing to the Realistvs. Pragmatism debate in the philosophies of thesocial sciences. A major development in theneo-pragmatist contribution to economicmethodology has been Quine's pragmatic assaulton the dogmas of empiricism, which are nowclearly acknowledged within contemporaryeconomic methodology. This assault isencapsulated in the celebrated Duhem-Quinethesis, which according to a number ofcontemporary leading philosophers of economics,poses a particularly serious methodologicalproblem for economics. This (...)
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  35.  17
    Desh Raj Sirswal, The Problem of Mind, Cognitive Science and Integrated Research Methodology.
    There are numerous aspects of the nature of man, and each aspect gives rise to many problems. Some of these problems are comparatively simple, other deep and perplexing. Throughout time, people have made distinction between the material or physical world and mental or psychical world, the former may be perceived by any observer; the later remains a private experience. Philosophy of mind, today dealing with four issues: the nature of mind and body, mental content, mental causation and consciousness. The nature (...)
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  36.  42
    Steffen Ducheyne (2010). Whewell's Tidal Researches: Scientific Practice and Philosophical Methodology. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 41 (1):26-40.
    Primarily between 1833 and 1840, Whewell attempted to accomplish what natural philosophers and scientists since at least Galileo had failed to do: to provide a systematic and broad-ranged study of the tides and to attempt to establish a general scientific theory of tidal phenomena. In the essay at hand, I document the close interaction between Whewell’s philosophy of science (especially his methodological views) and his scientific practice as a tidologist. I claim that the intertwinement between Whewell’s methodology and his (...)
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  37.  4
    Zenonas Norkus (2012). Modeling in Historical Research Practice and Methodology: Contributions From Poland. History and Theory 51 (2):292-304.
    This selection of texts should interest those who study analytical philosophy of history, methodology of history, and historical sociology. It contains contributions by Polish historians and philosophers since 1931, with pride of place given to the work of the Poznań school in the philosophy of science and humanities. With Jerzy Kmita, Leszek Nowak, and Jerzy Topolski as its leaders, it emerged in late 1960s as a synthesis of Marxism and the Polish brand of logical positivism known as the Lwow-Warsaw (...)
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  38.  11
    Corrado Viafora (1999). Toward a Methodology for the Ethical Analysis of Clinical Practice. Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy 2 (3):283-297.
    The scope of this essay is to introduce and explain the methodology underlying the Lanza Foundation Protocol for the analysis of clinical cases. The essay is divided in three parts. Part one examines the Protocol's methodology within the whole evolutionary framework of argumentation in bioethics. Particular attention is given to the most significant methodologies developed in European bioethics. Part two describes the system of argumentation which serves as a frame for both approaches, namely, the normative and the hermeneutical. (...)
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  39.  20
    Roger Backhouse (ed.) (1998). Explorations in Economic Methodology: From Lakatos to Empirical Philosophy of Science. Routledge.
    Is methodology fruitless? Intense controversy has resulted from attempts to understand economics through philosophy of science. This collection clarifies and responds to the issues raised, arguing that methodology is an essential activity.
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  40.  31
    Derong Pan (2009). Reader and Text in the Horizon of Understanding Methodology: Gadamer and Methodological Hermeneutics. [REVIEW] Frontiers of Philosophy in China 4 (3):417-436.
    Judging Gadamer’s theoretical stance is a complicated matter, and his ontological hermeneutics is usually regarded as a text-centered theory of understanding. Through an analysis of the phenomenological premises from which his theories take off, however, we can clearly see his reader-centric stance. On the basis of this stance some cease to seek for the original intention of the author or the original meaning of the text, which ineluctably leads to the ignorance of an understanding methodology. As far (...)
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  41.  10
    Hans Paul Prümm (2012). The Didactic Turn of German Legal Methodology. Jurisprudence 18 (4):1233-1282.
    We note an increasing consciousness of weakness of legal methodology taught to law students today: The students get neither real idea nor feeling of legal decision-making as mixture of legal matters, issue of facts, personal inputs, diverging interests, and the interplay with other actors. For minimize these defects it is necessary that law students learn in legal studies the following points: (1) Legal decision-making is a special kind of decision-making and is embedded in all problems of this process. (2) (...)
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  42.  6
    Hans Paul Prümm (2009). Reducing Irrationality of Legal Methodology by Realistic Description of Interpretative Tools and Teaching the Causes of Irrationality in Legal Education. Jurisprudence 115 (1):199-219.
    Lawyers pretend as if the process of application of laws, as well as its outcome, could be an analytic-deductive derivation; especially law students learn that legal decision-making is primarily a logic process. But we know that application of laws depends on analytic-logical as well as on voluntaristic (wilful) elements. Exact relations between these components are unknown and will be unknown. At most German law schools students as the most important imperative tool learn the so called “Auslegung” through the use of (...)
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  43.  13
    D. C. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited (...)
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  44.  5
    Nicholas McClaren (2015). The Methodology in Empirical Sales Ethics Research: 1980–2010. Journal of Business Ethics 127 (1):121-147.
    The study examines the research methodology of more than 200 empirical investigations of ethics in personal selling and sales management between 1980 and 2010. The review discusses the sources and authorship of the sales ethics research. To better understand the drivers of empirical sales ethics research, the foundations used in business, marketing, and sales ethics are compared. The use of hypotheses, operationalization, measurement, population and sampling decisions, research design, and statistical analysis techniques were examined as part of theory development (...)
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  45.  15
    Jenny Steinnes (2011). An Act of Methodology: A Document in Madness—Writing Ophelia. Educational Philosophy and Theory 44 (8):818-830.
    This paper is an attempt to stage some questions concerning methodology and education, inspired by Ophelia in Shakespeare's Hamlet and by Jacques Derrida's poetic philosophical oeuvres. What are at stake are the long traditions of preferences of sanity over madness, friend over enemy, male over female and of clean, unambiguous univocal language over the poetic. I will argue that educators will have an extra responsibility towards challenging the ancient tradition of phallogocentrism, both in our teaching and in our research.
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  46.  14
    Joachim Stolz (1996). Bericht: 10th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science (August 19–25, 1995; Florence, Italy). [REVIEW] Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 27 (1):167-170.
    The International Union of History and Philosophy of Science organizing the 10th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science is at its cross-road: the alternative is mass-performance or creative exchange of ideas. The program is criticized because the thematic center in History and Philosophy of Science has been shifted too far into the realm of micro-fields of Logic and the time reduction for presentation and discussion of papers to 20 minutes should be reconsidered. Several outstanding papers are (...)
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  47.  18
    Daniel Osherson, Aggregating Forecasts of Chance From Incoherent and Abstaining Experts.
    Decision makers often rely on expert opinion when making forecasts under uncertainty. In doing so, they confront two methodological challenges: the elicitation problem, which requires them to extract meaningful information from experts; and the aggregation problem, which requires them to combine expert opinion by resolving disagreements. Linear averaging is a justifiably popular method for addressing aggregation, but its robust simplicity makes two requirements on elicitation. First, each expert must offer probabilistically coherent forecasts; second, each expert must respond to all our (...)
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  48.  14
    P. A. Lewis (2003). Recent Developments in Economic Methodology: The Rhetorical and Ontological Turns. [REVIEW] Foundations of Science 8 (1):51-68.
    Recent developments in themethodology of economics have drawn uponpragmatist and realist philosophies of socialscience. These recent developments areoutlined. It is argued that a specific variantof realist philosophy known as critical realismcan provide the basis for a prescriptiveeconomic methodology that is not susceptible topragmatist criticisms.
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  49.  14
    John Wettersten (1990). Integrating Psychology and Methodology. Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 21 (2):293-308.
    Summary The importance of the problem of how to integrate psychology and methodology was rediscovered by Oswald Külpe. He noted that Wundt's psychology was inadequate and that a new methodology was needed to construct an alternative. Külpe made real progress but his program turned out to be quite difficult: he had no appropriate method for integrating the two fields. August Messer tried to fill the gap but failed. The problem was largely dropped due to poor methods at hand (...)
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    Francis Heylighen (2000). Foundations and Methodology for an Evolutionary World View: A Review of the Principia Cybernetica Project. [REVIEW] Foundations of Science 5 (4):457-490.
    The Principia Cybernetica Project was created to develop an integrated philosophy or world view, based on the theories of evolution, self-organization, systems and cybernetics. Its conceptual network has been implemented as an extensive website. The present paper reviews the assumptions behind the project, focusing on its rationale, its philosophical presuppositions, and its concrete methodology for computer-supported collaborative development. Principia Cybernetica starts from a process ontology, where a sequence of elementary actions produces ever more complex forms of organization through the (...)
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