There are a number of reasons for being interested in uncertainty, and there are also a number of uncertainty formalisms. These formalisms are not unrelated. It is argued that they can all be reflected as special cases of the approach of taking probabilities to be determined by sets of probability functions defined on an algebra of statements. Thus, interval probabilities should be construed as maximum and minimum probabilities within a set of distributions, Glenn Shafer's belief functions should be construed as (...) lower probabilities, etc. Updating probabilities introduces new considerations, and it is shown that the representation of belief as a set of probabilities conflicts in this regard with the updating procedures advocated by Shafer. The attempt to make subjectivistic probability plausible as a doctrine of rational belief by making it more flowery -- i.e., by adding new dimensions -- does not succeed. But, if one is going to represent beliefs by sets of distributions, those sets of distributions might as well be based in statistical knowledge, as they are in epistemological or evidential probability. (shrink)
The dominant argument for the introduction of propensities or chances as an interpretation of probability depends on the difficulty of accounting for single case probabilities. We argue that in almost all cases, the "single case" application of probability can be accounted for otherwise. "Propensities" are needed only in theoretical contexts, and even there applications of probability need only depend on propensities indirectly.
Bishop Butler, [Butler, 1736], said that probability was the very guide of life. But what interpretations of probability can serve this function? It isn't hard to see that empirical (frequency) views won't do, and many recent writers—for example John Earman, who has said that Bayesianism is "the only game in town"—have been persuaded by various dutch book arguments that only subjective probability will perform the function required. We will defend the thesis that probability construed in this way offers very little (...) guidance, dutch book arguments notwithstanding. We will sketch a way out of the impasse. (shrink)
Toma-se como referências básicas algumas reflexões do filósofo Martin Heidegger sobre o domínio planetário da técnica para mostrar a penúria de uma época marcada pelo fim da filosofia mediante sua realização como metafísica nas ciências técnicas. Explicita-se ainda como esse fim da filosofia na era do domínio planetário da técnica pode se constituir o ponto de partida para um novo começo do pensar, que pensa para além dos limites impostos pelo pensamento calculador. Na parte conclusiva do artigo procura-se determinar o (...) caráter e a tarefa que caberia a essa nova forma de pensar e conhecer que nos aproxima das coisas tais como são. (shrink)
Este artigo procura desenvolver o âmbito da assim chamada ontopolítica como contribuição original do pensamento do G. Deleuze para a filosofia política contemporânea. Com este objetivo, veremos que Deleuze toma o conceito de poder em Foucault e lhe confere alçada ontológica. Este conceito de poder dá acesso a outro elemento importante da filosofia política deleuzeana, ou seja, o estudo dos diagramas históricos do poder nas denominadas sociedades disciplinar e de controle. Com o diagrama de funcionamento das mesmas podemos entender qual (...) o retrato deleuzeano para a democracia em sociedades contemporâneas. Adentrando a ontopolítica deleuzeana, nos dedicaremos aos conceitos de maioria, minoria e devir-minoritário. É neste ponto que se faz o encontro da ontopolítica de Deleuze com a ontologia matemática de Ch. Sanders Peirce. Acontece que os conceitos ontopolíticos de Deleuze, além de sua vinculação com uma ontologia do poder, recebem também um tratamento matemático, tendo em vista certas noções aritméticas (contável e não contável) e geométricas (linhas). As maiorias e minorias são conjuntos contáveis que são atravessados por devires não contáveis. Com isso, chegaremos ao ponto central do presente artigo, onde realizamos uma incursão inicial à imagem dos conceitos de maioria e minoria em Deleuze, com base na teoria das coleções e multidões de C. S. Peirce, principalmente com relação à ontologia matemática nela incluída. Quanto a isso, a principal operação será mostrar de que forma a distinção deleuzeana entre maiorias/minorias contáveis e devir-minoritário não contável pode ser escandida em termos de coleções discretas denominadas enumeráveis, denumeráveis e abnumeráveis ou pós-numeráveis, de acordo com a terminologia de Peirce. (shrink)
To understand better why evidence of student cheating is often ignored, a national sample of psychology instructors was sampled for their opinions. The 127 respondents overwhelmingly agreed that dealing with instances of academic dishonesty was among the most onerous aspects of their profession. Respondents cited insufficient evidence that cheating has occurred as the most frequent reason for overlooking student behavior or writing that might be dishonest. A factor analysis revealed 4 other clusters of reasons as to why cheating may be (...) ignored. Emotional reasons included stress and lack of courage. Difficult reasons included the extensive time and effort required to deal with cheating students. Fear reasons included concern about retaliation or a legal challenge. Denial reasons included beliefs that cheating students would fail anyway and that the worst offenders do not get caught. The reasons why instances of academic dishonesty should be proactively confronted are presented. (shrink)
The system presented by the author in The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference (Kyburg 1974) suffered from certain technical difficulties, and from a major practical difficulty; it was hard to be sure, in discussing examples and applications, when you had got hold of the right reference class. The present paper, concerned mainly with the characterization of randomness, resolves the technical difficulties and provides a well structured framework for the choice of a reference class. The definition of randomness that leads (...) to this framework is simplified and clarified in a number of respects. It resolves certain puzzles raised by S. Spielman and W. Harper in their contributions to Profiles: Henry E. Kyburg, Jr. and Isaac Levi (R. Bogdan (ed.) 1982). (shrink)
Henry Johnstone's philosophical development was guided by a persistent need to reform the concept of validity -either by reinterpreting it or by finding a substitute for it. This project lead Johnstone into interesting confrontations with the concept of rhetoric and especiaUy with the work of Chaim Perelman and Olbrechts-Tyteca. The project culminated in a failed attempt to develop a formal ethics of rhetoric and argumentation, but this attempt was itself not consistent with some of Johnstone's other characterizations ofan ethics (...) of argument ation. A virtue ethics would be truer to the Johnstonian philosophical project than a formal ethics of argument. Resume. (shrink)
Given the pragmatic tum recently taken by argumentation studies, we owe renewed attention to Henry Johnstone's views on the primacy of process over product. In particular, Johnstone's decidedly non-cooperative model is a refreshing alternative to the current dialogic theories of arguing, one which opens the way for specifically rhetorical lines of inquiry.
HenryKyburg’s lottery paradox (1961, p. 197) arises from considering a fair 1000 ticket lottery that has exactly one winning ticket. If this much is known about the execution of the lottery it is therefore rational to accept that one ticket will win. Suppose that an event is very likely if the probability of its occurring is greater than 0.99. On these grounds it is presumed rational to accept the proposition that ticket 1 of the lottery will not (...) win. Since the lottery is fair, it is rational to accept that ticket 2 won’t win either—indeed, it is rational to accept for any individual ticket i of the lottery that ticket i will not win. However, accepting that ticket 1 won’t win, accepting that ticket 2 won’t win, . . . , and accepting that ticket 1000 won’t win entails that it is rational to accept that no ticket will win, which entails that it is rational to accept the contradictory proposition that one ticket wins and no ticket wins. (shrink)