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Horacio Arló-Costa [40]Horacio L. Arlo-Costa [1]
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Profile: Horacio Arlo-Costa (Carnegie Mellon University)
  1. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Epistemological Foundations for the Representation of Discourse Context.
    forthcoming in Studies on Language and Information (CSLI), Stanford.
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  2. Horacio Arlo-Costa, The Logic of Conditionals. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
    entry for the Entry for the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2007.
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  3. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Eric Pacuit, First Order Classical Modal Logic, Studia Logica, 84, 2, 171-210, 2006.
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  4. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Rohit Parikh, Conditional Probability and Defeasible Inference.
    Journal of Philosophical Logic 34, 97-119, 2005.
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  5. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Belief Revision Conditionals: Models of Suppositional.
    It is now well known that, on pain of triviality, the probability of a conditional cannot be identified with the corresponding conditional probability [27]. This surprising impossibility result has a qualitative counterpart. In fact, Peter Gardenfors showed in [13] that believing 'If A then B' cannot be equated with the act of believing B on the supposition that A.
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  6. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Belief Revision Conditionals: Basic Iterated.
    Recent work has shown that in spite of these negative results, the question 'how to accept a conditional?' has a clear answer. Even if conditionals are not truth-carriers, they do have precise acceptability conditions. Nevertheless most epistemic models of conditionals do not provide acceptance conditions for iterated conditionals. One of the main goals of this essay is to provide a comprehensive account of the notion of epistemic conditionality covering all forms of iteration.
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  7. Varun Dutt, Horacio Arlo-Costa, Jeffrey Helzner & Cleotilde Gonzalez (2014). The Description–Experience Gap in Risky and Ambiguous Gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 27 (4):316-327.
  8. Horacio Arló-Costa & Arthur Paul Pedersen (2013). Fast and Frugal Heuristics: Rationality and the Limits of Naturalism. Synthese 190 (5):831-850.
    Gerd Gigerenzer and Thomas Sturm have recently proposed a modest form of what they describe as a normative, ecological and limited naturalism. The basic move in their argument is to infer that certain heuristics we tend to use should be used in the right ecological setting. To address this argument, we first consider the case of a concrete heuristic called Take the Best (TTB). There are at least two variants of the heuristic which we study by making explicit the choice (...)
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  9. Horacio Arlo-Costa (2010). Review of Franz Huber, Christoph Schmidt-Petri (Eds.), Degrees of Belief. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2010 (1).
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  10. Horacio Arló-Costa & Eduardo Fermé (2010). Formal Epistemology and Logic. In Susana Nuccetelli, Ofelia Schutte & Otávio Bueno (eds.), A Companion to Latin American Philosophy. Wiley-Blackwell.
  11. Horacio Arló-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner (2010). Ambiguity Aversion: The Explanatory Power of Indeterminate Probabilities. Synthese 172 (1):37 - 55.
    Daniel Ellsberg presented in Ellsberg (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75:643–669, 1961) various examples questioning the thesis that decision making under uncertainty can be reduced to decision making under risk. These examples constitute one of the main challenges to the received view on the foundations of decision theory offered by Leonard Savage in Savage (1972). Craig Fox and Amos Tversky have, nevertheless, offered an indirect defense of Savage. They provided in Fox and Tversky (1995) an explanation of Ellsberg’s two-color problem (...)
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  12. Horacio Arló-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner (2010). Introduction. Synthese 172 (1):1-6.
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  13. Horacio Arló-Costa, Social Norms, Rational Choice and Belief Change.
    This article elaborates on foundational issues in the social sciences and their impact on the contemporary theory of belief revision. Recent work in the foundations of economics has focused on the role external social norms play in choice. Amartya Sen has argued in [Sen93] that the traditional rationalizability approach used in the theory of rational choice has serious problems accommodating the role of social norms. Sen’s more recent work [Sen96, Sen97] proposes how one might represent social norms in the theory (...)
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  14. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner, Iterated Random Selection as Intermediate Between Risk and Uncertainty.
    In (Hertwig et al. , 2003) Hertwig et al. draw a distinction between decisions from experience and decisions from description. In a decision from experience an agent does not have a summary description of the possible outcomes or their likelihoods. A career choice, deciding whether to back up a computer hard drive, cross a busy street, etc., are typical examples of decisions from experience. In such decisions agents can rely only of their encounters with the corresponding prospects. By contrast, an (...)
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  15. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Arthur Paul Pedersen, Social Norms, Rational Choice and Belief Change.
    This article elaborates on foundational issues in the social sciences and their impact on the contemporary theory of belief revision. Recent work in the foundations of economics has focused on the role external social norms play in choice. Amartya Sen has argued in [Sen93] that the traditional rationalizability approach used in the theory of rational choice has serious problems accommodating the role of social norms. Sen's more recent work [Sen96, Sen97] proposes how one might represent social norms in the theory (...)
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  16. Horacio Arló-costa (2008). Formal Epistemology, Context and Content: Introduction to Special Issue on Recent Developments in Formal Epistemology. Review of Symbolic Logic 1 (4):395-401.
  17. Horacio Arló-Costa & Cristina Bicchieri (2007). Knowing and Supposing in Games of Perfect Information. Studia Logica 86 (3):353 - 373.
    The paper provides a framework for representing belief-contravening hypotheses in games of perfect information. The resulting t-extended information structures are used to encode the notion that a player has the disposition to behave rationally at a node. We show that there are models where the condition of all players possessing this disposition at all nodes (under their control) is both a necessary and a sufficient for them to play the backward induction solution in centipede games. To obtain this result, we (...)
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  18. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Cristina Bicchieri, Knowing and Supposing in Games with Perfect Information.
    The paper provides a framework for representing belief-contravening hypotheses in games of perfect information. The resulting t-extended information structures are used to encode the notion that a player has the disposition to behave rationally at a node. We show that there are models where the condition of all players possessing this disposition at all nodes (under their control) is both a necessary and a sufficient for them to play the backward induction solution in centipede games. To obtain this result, we (...)
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  19. Jeffrey Helzner & Horacio Arlo-Costa, On the Explanatory Power of Indeterminate Probabilities.
    Building on work that we reported at ISIPTA 2005 we revisit claims made by Fox and Tversky concerning their "comparative ignorance" hypothesis for decision making under uncertainty.
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  20. Horacio Arló-Costa (2006). Rationally Choosing Beliefs: Some Open Questions. Análisis Filosófico 26 (1):93-114.
    Carlos Alchourrón, Peter Gärdenfors and David Makinson published in 1985 a seminal article on belief change in the Journal of Symbolic Logic . Researchers from various disciplines, from computer science to mathematical economics to philosophical logic, have continued the work first presented in this seminal paper during the last two decades. This paper explores some salient foundational trends that interpret the act of changing view as a decision. We will argue that some of these foundational trends are already present, although (...)
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  21. Horacio Arló-Costa (2006). Review of Sherrilyn Roush, Tracking Truth: Knowledge, Evidence and Science. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2006 (7).
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  22. Horacio Arló-Costa (2006). Review of Vincent F. Hendricks, Mainstream and Formal Epistemology. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 2006 (7).
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  23. Horacio Arló-Costa & Isaac Levi (2006). Contraction: On the Decision-Theoretical Origins of Minimal Change and Entrenchment. Synthese 152 (1):129 - 154.
    We present a decision-theoretically motivated notion of contraction which, we claim, encodes the principles of minimal change and entrenchment. Contraction is seen as an operation whose goal is to minimize loses of informational value. The operation is also compatible with the principle that in contracting A one should preserve the sentences better entrenched than A (when the belief set contains A). Even when the principle of minimal change and the latter motivation for entrenchment figure prominently among the basic intuitions in (...)
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  24. Horacio Arló-Costa & Eric Pacuit (2006). First-Order Classical Modal Logic. Studia Logica 84 (2):171 - 210.
    The paper focuses on extending to the first order case the semantical program for modalities first introduced by Dana Scott and Richard Montague. We focus on the study of neighborhood frames with constant domains and we offer in the first part of the paper a series of new completeness results for salient classical systems of first order modal logic. Among other results we show that it is possible to prove strong completeness results for normal systems without the Barcan Formula (like (...)
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  25. Horacio Arló-Costa (2005). Models of Preference Reversals and Personal Rules: Do They Require Maximizing a Utility Function with a Specific Structure? Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (5):650-651.
    One of the reasons for adopting hyperbolic discounting is to explain preference reversals. Another is that this value structure suggests an elegant theory of the will. I examine the capacity of the theory to solve Newcomb's problem. In addition, I compare Ainslie's account with other procedural theories of choice that seem at least equally capable of accommodating reversals of preference.
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  26. Horacio Arló-Costa (2005). Similarity in Logical Reasoning and Decision-Making. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (1):14-15.
    Normative accounts in terms of similarity can be deployed in order to provide semantics for systems of context-free default rules and other sophisticated conditionals. In contrast, procedural accounts of decision in terms of similarity (Rubinstein 1997) are hard to reconcile with the normative rules of rationality used in decision-making, even when suitably weakened.
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  27. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Jeffrey Helzner, Comparative Ignorance and the Ellsberg Phenomenon.
    The "Ellsberg phenomenon" has played a significant role in research on imprecise probabilities. Fox and Tversky [5] have attempted to explain this phenomenon in terms of their "comparative ignorance" hypothesis. We challenge that explanation and present empirical work suggesting an explanation that is much closer to Ellsberg's own diagnosis.
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  28. Horacio Arlo-Costa & William Taysom, Contextual Modals.
    In a series of recent articles Angelika Kratzer has argued that the standard account of modality along Kripkean lines is inadequate in order to represent context-dependent modals. In particular she argues that the standard account is unable to deliver a non-trivial account of modality capable of overcoming inconsistencies of the underlying conversational background.
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  29. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Isaac Levi, Contraction: On the Decision Theoretical Origins of Minimal Change and Entrenchment.
    Horacio Arlo-Costa and Issac Levi. Contraction: On the Decision Theoretical Origins of Minimal Change and Entrenchment.
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  30. Horacio Arló-Costa (2001). Bayesian Epistemology and Epistemic Conditionals: On the Status of the Export-Import Laws. Journal of Philosophy 98 (11):555-593.
    Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.
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  31. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Bayesian Epistemology and Epistemic Conditionals: On the Status of the Export-Import Laws.
    The notion of probability occupies a central role in contemporary epistemology and cognitive science. Nevertheless, the classical notion of probability is hard to reconcile with the central notions postulated by the epistemological tradition.
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  32. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Eric Pacuit, First Order Classical Modal Logic.
    This paper focuses on extending to the first order case the semantical program for modalities first introduced by Dana Scott and Richard Montague. We focus on the study of neighborhood frames with constant domains and we offer in the first part of the paper a series of new completeness results for salient classical systems of first order modal logic.
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  33. Horacio Arló-Costa & Richmond H. Thomason (2001). Iterative Probability Kinematics. Journal of Philosophical Logic 30 (5):479-524.
    Following the pioneer work of Bruno De Finetti [12], conditional probability spaces (allowing for conditioning with events of measure zero) have been studied since (at least) the 1950's. Perhaps the most salient axiomatizations are Karl Popper's in [31], and Alfred Renyi's in [33]. Nonstandard probability spaces [34] are a well know alternative to this approach. Vann McGee proposed in [30] a result relating both approaches by showing that the standard values of infinitesimal probability functions are representable as Popper functions, and (...)
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  34. Horacio Arlo-Costa & Richmond H. Thomason, Iterative Probability Kinematics.
    Following the pioneer work of Bruno De Finetti, conditional probability spaces (allowing for conditioning with events of measure zero) have been studied since (at least) the 1950's.
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  35. Horacio Arlo-Costa, First Order Extensions of Classical Systems of Modal Logic: The Role of Barcan Schemas.
    Horacio Arlo-Costa. First Order Extensions of Classical Systems of Modal Logic: The Role of Barcan Schemas.
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  36. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Qualitative and Probabilistic Models of Full Belief.
    Let L be a language containing the modal operator B - for full belief. An information model is a set E of stable L-theories. A sentence is valid if it is accepted in all theories of every model.
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  37. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Belief Revision Conditionals: Basic Iterated Systems.
    It is now well known that, on pain of triviality, the probability of a conditional cannot be identified with the corresponding conditional probability [25]. This surprising impossibility result has a qualitative counterpart. In fact, Peter Gärdenfors showed in [13] that believing ‘If A then B’ cannot be equated with the act of believing B on the supposition that A — as long as supposing obeys minimal Bayesian constraints. Recent work has shown that in spite of these negative results, the question (...)
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  38. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Full Belief, Supposition, and Personal Probablility.
  39. Horacio Arlo-Costa, Belief Revision Conditionals: Models of Suppositional Reasoning.
  40. Horacio L. Arlo-Costa, Epistemic Conditionals, Snakes and Stars.
    Consider a rational agent X at certain point of time t. X's epistemic state can be represented in different ways.
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  41. Horacio Arlo-Costa, John Collins & Isaac Levi (1995). Desire-as-Belief Implies Opinionation or Indifference. Analysis 55 (1):2-5.