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J. Barkley Rosser [68]J. Barkley Rosser Jr [2]
  1. Mohammed H. I. Dore & J. Barkley Rosser, Do Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics Amount to a Kuhnian Paradigm Shift?
    Much empirical analysis and econometric work recognizes that there are nonlinearities, regime shifts or structural breaks, asymmetric adjustment costs, irreversibilities and lagged dependencies. Hence, empirical work has already transcended neoclassical economics. Some progress has also been made in modeling endogenously generated cyclical growth and fluctuations. All this is inconsistent with neoclassical general equilibrium. Hence there is growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. It therefore follows that there is a Kuhnian crisis in economics and further research in nonlinear dynamics and complexity can (...)
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  2. Richard P. F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, Economics at the Edge.
    This book is about the economics profession, or more precisely, the process by which economic thinking changes. We believe that this process is important because economics is currently at a turning point; it is changing from a static approach to understanding, in which deductive reasoning is the key method used, to a complexity approach to understanding, in which inductive and deductive methods are used simultaneously, and the full complexity of the system is acknowledged and dealt with. The change is ongoing (...)
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  3. Richard P. F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, Live and Dead Issues in the Methodology of Economics.
    We attempt to clarify divisions made by us in previous work (Colander et al., 2004a,b) between “orthodox, mainstream, and heterodox” in economics, following very useful remarks in Dequech (2007-08), whom we thank. We also provide specific advice for heterodox economists, namely: worry less about methodology, focus on being economists first and heterodox economists second, and prepare ideas to leave the incubator of heterodoxy to enter the mainstream economic debate.
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  4. Richard P. F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, The Cutting Edge of Economics.
    This book is about the economics profession, or more precisely, the cutting edge of the economics profession. Economics is currently at a turning point; it is changing from a static approach to understanding, in which deductive reasoning is the key method used, to a complexity approach to understanding, in which inductive and deductive methods are used simultaneously, and the full complexity of the system is acknowledged and dealt with. The change is just beginning, but the groundwork is currently being laid. (...)
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  5. Richard P. F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, The Complexity Era in Economics.
    This article argues that the neoclassical era in economics has ended and is being replaced by a new era. What best characterizes the new era is its acceptance that the economy is complex, and thus that it might be called the complexity era. The complexity era has not arrived through a revolution. Instead, it has evolved out of the many strains of neoclassical work, along with work done by less orthodox mainstream and heterodox economists. It is only in its beginning (...)
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  6. J. Barkley Rosser, A New Perspective On Economic Discontinuity.
    In 1991 this author published a book entitled, From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities with Kluwer Academic Publishers. Due to the con troversial and unusual nature of this book’s content, there was considerable difficulty in getting publishers to agree to publish it prior to its being accepted by Kluwer. Initially conceived as a heterodox challenge to established economic thinking, this book became viewed by many readers as a reference volume on applications of nonlinear dynamics in general (...)
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  7. J. Barkley Rosser, A Review of An Out to Lunch Economist, by Tailor Coward. [REVIEW]
    Needless to say, Coward has not only innovated the main ideas of Cowen, but has succeeded in going much further in suggesting how to implement them in a successful effort to consume exciting while inexpensive cuisine. Thus, while Cowen recommend seeking out low price outlets such as carts and cheap Chinese restaurants in obscure shopping malls with ugly women in them and awful décor, not to mention scowling and feuding members of the ethnic groups associated with the restaurants, Coward has (...)
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  8. J. Barkley Rosser, Between Cambridge and Vienna: The Risky Business of New Austrian Business Cycle Theory.
    This essay reviews the arguments made for a New Austrian theory of business cycles by Tyler Cowen, based on risk analysis and assuming rational expectations. This contrasts with the Old Austrian view that questions measurable risk in economic analysis. The way risk is applied to analyze business cycles suffers from serious inconsistencies. The use of rational expectations is mistaken in the face of economic complexity as understood by the traditional Austrians. However, Cowen is commended for his open-mindedness, even as this (...)
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  9. J. Barkley Rosser, Complex Dynamics and Post Keynesian Economics.
    distraction that leads innocent Post Keynesians into “classical sin.” Davidson (1994, 1996) argues that core Post Keynesian (PK) ideas such as that insufficient aggregate demand arise from fundamental uncertainty in a monetary economy do not depend on nonlinearity or complexity, that these core concepts are axiomatically and ontologically true, and that the inability of agents to forecast well in dynamically complex situations reflects mere epistemological problems of insufficient computational abilities. Thus complex dynamics is merely a classical stalking horse. This writer (...)
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  10. J. Barkley Rosser, Complex Dynamics of Macroeconomic Collapse and Its Aftermath in Transition Economies.
    This paper presents a view of the process of transition from planned command socialism to mixed market capitalism involving nonlinear complex dynamical phenomena. After the former institutional structure disappears a coordination failure can bring about macroeconomic collapse as in almost all of the former Soviet bloc or macroeconomic boom as in China. A closely linked phenomenon is the rise of the underground economy as inflation and income inequality increase. This can lead to a jump from one equilibrium to a very (...)
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  11. J. Barkley Rosser, Complex Ecologic-Economic Dynamics and Environmental Policy Forthcoming, Ecological Economics.
    Various complex dynamics in ecologic-economic systems are presented with an emphasis upon models of global warming dynamics and fishery dynamics. Chaotic and catastrophic dynamic patterns are shown to be possible, along with other complex dynamics arising from nonlinearities in such combined systems. Problems associated with amplified oscillations due to these nonlinear interactions in the combined interactions of human economic decisionmaking with ecological dynamics are identified and discussed. Implications for policy are examined with strong recommendations for greater emphasis in particular upon (...)
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  12. J. Barkley Rosser, Complexity in Economics.
    Increasingly in economics what had been considered to be unusual and unacceptable has come to be considered usual and acceptable, if not necessarily desirable. Whereas it had been widely believed that economic reality could be reasonably described by sets of pairs of linear supply and demand curves intersecting in single equilibrium points to which markets easily and automatically moved, now it is understood that many markets and situations do not behave so well. Economic reality is rife with nonlinearity, discontinuity, and (...)
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  13. J. Barkley Rosser, Colloquium: Statistical Mechanics of Money, Wealth, and Income.
    The paper reviews statistical models for money, wealth, and income distributions developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. By analogy with the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics, it is shown that the probability distribution of money is exponential for certain classes of models with interacting economic agents. Alternative scenarios are also reviewed. Data analysis of the empirical distributions of wealth and income reveals a two-class distribution. The majority of the population belongs to the lower class, characterized by (...)
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  14. J. Barkley Rosser, Chaos Theory Before Lorenz.
    September 2008 Abstract: We consider the precursors to the discovery of sensitive dependence on initial conditions by Edward Lorenz (1963) in his model of climatic fluid dynamics. This will focus on work in various disciplines that imply either such sensitivity, irregular endogenous dynamic patterns, or fractal nature of an attractor, as is also found in the attractor underlying the model Lorenz studied. Going from ancient hints in Anaxagoras through nineteenth century mathematics and physics, the main areas of such development will (...)
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  15. J. Barkley Rosser, Dynamic Discontinuities in Ecologic-Economic Systems.
    “A Public Domain, once a velvet carpet of rich buffalo-grass and grama, now an illimitable waste of rattlesnake-bush and tumbleweed, too impoverished to be accepted as a gift by the states within which it lies. Why? Because the ecology of the Southwest happened to be set on a hair trigger.”.
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  16. J. Barkley Rosser, Econophysics.
    According to Bikas Chakrabarti (2005, p. 225), the term econophysics was neologized in 1995 at the second Statphys-Kolkata conference in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India by the physicist H. Eugene Stanley, who was also the first to use it in print (Stanley, 1996). Mantegna and Stanley (2000, pp. viii-ix) define “the multidisciplinary field of econophysics” as “a neologism that denotes the activities of physicists who are working on economics problems to test a variety of new conceptual approaches deriving from the physical (...)
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  17. J. Barkley Rosser, Emergence and Complexity in Austrian Economics.
    A deep theme of Austrian economics has been that of spontaneous order or selforganization of the economy. The origin of this theme dates to the putative founder of the Austrian School, Carl Menger, with his theory of the spontaneous emergence of money for transactions purposes in primitive economies being archetypal example (Menger, 1892). Menger drew this approach from the Scottish Enlightenment figures David Hume, Adam Ferguson, and Adam Smith, with the latter’s Wealth of Nations (1776) particularly important. The most important (...)
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  18. J. Barkley Rosser, Failure of the Washington Consensus On Inequality and the Underground Economy in the Transition Economies.
    James Madison University Harrisonburg, VA 22807 Tel: 540-568-3212 Fax: 540-568-3010 Email: rosserjb@jmu.edu..
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  19. J. Barkley Rosser, Honggang Li.
    A time series of the Shanghai stock index in China for the 1990s is studied for the possible existence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. Three alternative specifications of fundamentals are estimated using VAR models of domestic and international variables. These are subjected to regime switching tests and rescaled range analysis tests. Nulls of no persistence were mostly rejected, suggesting the strong possibility of bubbles. Nonlinearities beyond ARCH effects using the BDS test could not be rejected. The paper also discusses the special (...)
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  20. J. Barkley Rosser, Harrisonburg, VA USA.
    We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction, and control in economics, based on Morgenstern's analysis of the Holmes-Moriarty problem. The first uses a standard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting the future. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in infinite dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting an economy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly the product of something other than calculative (...)
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  21. J. Barkley Rosser, Institutional Evolution and the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
    This paper examines how institutions for managing environmental resources change over time with economic development and the seriousness of environmental problems. Different problems tend to be more serious at different levels of development requiring different approaches. A major point is that traditional systems of management in poorer countries were often effective at managing common good resources, and institutions that replicate their advantages should be encouraged at higher levels of economic development as well.
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  22. J. Barkley Rosser, Multiple Unofficial Economy Equilibria and Income Distribution Dynamics in Systemic Transition.
    Large increases unofficial economies in many transition economies arise from a dynamic interaction with rising income inequality and public sector changes in multiple equilibria system. Returns to unofficial activity are first increasing and then decreasing, implying two distinct stable equilibria, with changes in inequality possibly causing a jump from one to the other. Multiple regressions of data from 18 transition economies find income inequality significantly correlated with the size of the unofficial economy, with the maximum annual rate of inflation also (...)
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  23. J. Barkley Rosser, On the Foundations of Mathematical Economics.
    Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai [74] presents a constructivist perspective on the foundations of mathematical economics, praising the views of Feynman in developing path integrals and Dirac in developing the delta function. He sees their approach as consistent with the Bishop constructive mathematics and considers its view on the Bolzano-Weierstrass, Hahn-Banach, and intermediate value theorems, and then the implications of these arguments for such “crown jewels” of mathematical economics as the existence of general equilibrium and the second welfare theorem. He also relates (...)
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  24. J. Barkley Rosser, Rosserjb@Jmu.Edu.
    I am writing this in December, 2010, the final month that I am Editor of the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (JEBO), having first assumed this position effectively in August, 2001.1 It has mostly been a rewarding, if increasingly time-consuming, experience, as submissions have approximately doubled over this period. I have gotten better at doing things more quickly, and the switch from snail mail to electronic handling of matters has speeded things up, but the workload has increased substantially. In (...)
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  25. J. Barkley Rosser, Special Problems of Forests as Ecologic-Economic Systems.
    Ecologic-economic systems tend to exhibit greater complexity than systems that are purely ecological or economic. The interactions between the two types often generates nonlinear relations that lead to various kinds of complex dynamics that complicate management and decisionmaking regarding them. Of these, forests have characteristics that lead them to have special problems not usually encountered in the management of such systems. A central one is the long time periods involved managing forests compared to most other such systems. This means that (...)
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  26. J. Barkley Rosser, The New Institutional Economy and the New Traditional Economy in Korea: Does the Confucian Tradition Give It a Competitive Edge?
    A new traditional economy combines elements of traditional culture, such as Confucianism, with a modern, technologically advanced economy, while a new institutional economy minimizes transactions costs through its institutional structure. South Korea has enhanced its competitive edge by drawing on Confucian elements such as respect for education and the search for family-like harmony in chaebol corporations that can reduce transactions costs (despite problems) in an open system. Despite also emphasizing respect for education, North Korea has drawn on anti-mercantile elements of (...)
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  27. J. Barkley Rosser & Robert W. Bond, Chaotic Hysteresis and Systemic Economic Transformation: Soviet Investment Patterns.
    Economies making a transition from centrally planned socialism to market capitalism can experience chaotic hysteresis. This can arise from elements of the previous system persisting even as institutions are transformed with the system possibly experiencing chaos during this conflict. A model of investment cycles accompanied by technological stagnation shows this phenomenon which can be viewed from a cusp catastrophe perspective. Empirical tests of Soviet investment and construction data provide incomplete support for the cusp structure with chaos. Nonlinear structures are found (...)
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  28. J. Barkley Rosser & L. Kramer, Paradigm Lost: The Transformation of Comparative Economics.
    James Madison University Harrisonburg, VA 22807 USA Tel: 540-568-3212 Fax: 540-568-3010 Email: rosserjb@jmu.edu..
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  29. J. Barkley Rosser & L. Kramer, State-Space Estimation of Rational Bubbles in the Yen/Deutschemark Exchange Rate.
    The literature on speculative bubbles in foreign exchange rates is voluminous, with much of it failing to reject the presence of bubbles in many exchange markets.1 Serious testing of this issue began with the work of Meese (1986), Evans (1986), and Woo (1987). Each used a different approach, and each found evidence failing to reject the presence of bubbles in at least some exchange markets.
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  30. J. Barkley Rosser & Jamshed Y. Uppal, Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?
    Daily returns of stock markets in 27 emerging markets in Asia, Africa, South America, and Eastern Europe from the early 1990s through 2006 are analyzed for the possible presence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. The absence of these is tested for by studying residuals of VAR-based fundamentals, using the Hamilton regime-switching model and the rescaled range analysis of Hurst. For the first test absence of bubbles is rejected for 24 countries (except Mexico, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan), and for the second it (...)
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  31. J. Barkley Rosser & Jamshed Y. Uppal, Financial Development and Bubbles: The Case of the Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan.
    Speculative bubbles present a problem for the development of sophisticated financial markets in developing economies. This paper discusses the evolution of regulatory institutions in Pakistan pertaining to the Karachi stock exchange and empirically tests for the presence of stock market bubbles in that stock market in recent years. A fundamental is estimated using a VAR approach, and residuals of this fundamental are tested for trends using Hamilton regime switching and Hurst rescaled range methods. Nonlinearities beyond ARCH are also tested for (...)
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  32. Richard P. F. Holt & J. Barkley Rosser, How to Win Friends and (Possibly) Influence Mainstream Economists.
    The first is that we are wrong to suggest that the mainstream is no longer limited to a restrictive orthodoxy of beliefs and assumptions that discourages dissenting voices. In developing his argument, Vernengo claims that our characterization of a cutting edge branch of the mainstream that does not hold to a neoclassical orthodoxy is misleading. Although he states that he accepts our characterization of the economics profession as a complex adaptive system, with many competing views, he sees the cutting edge (...)
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  33. J. Barkley Rosser, How Complex Are the Austrians?
    Roger Koppl (2009, p. 1) argues that “Austrian economics is a school of thought within the broader complexity movement in economics.” Is he correct? While there are many who have argued for some overlapping between the two, I shall argue that this is probably an overly strong statement. The main reason is that there are substantial elements and strands within Austrian economics that do not fit in with any of the multiple varieties of complexity theory, even though there are some (...)
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  34. Victor M. Yakovenko & J. Barkley Rosser, Colloquium: Statistical Mechanics of Money, Wealth, and Income.
    The paper reviews statistical models for money, wealth, and income distributions developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. By analogy with the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics, it is shown that the probability distribution of money is exponential for certain classes of models with interacting economic agents. Alternative scenarios are also reviewed. Data analysis of the empirical distributions of wealth and income reveals a two-class distribution. The majority of the population belongs to the lower class, characterized by (...)
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  35. J. Barkley Rosser Jr (2014). The Foundations of Economic Complexity in Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations. Journal of Economic Methodology 21 (3):308-312.
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  36. J. Barkley Rosser Jr (2004). Epistemological Implications of Economic Complexity. Annals of the Japan Association for Philosophy of Science 13 (1):45-57.
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  37. J. Barkley Rosser (2000). Risk and Austrian Business‐Cycle Theory: Rejoinder to Cowen. Critical Review 14 (1):95-97.
    abstract Cowen and I agree that rational?expectations theory is unrealistic and that risk is difficult to quantify. However, we continue to disagree about the riskiness of consumption as opposed to investment. Since more investment might lead to a recession if investment is relatively risky, Cowen's use of rational?expectations theory to buttress the Austrian school's claim that market economies can shift toward relatively more investment without experiencing macroeconomic disruption remains suspect.
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  38. J. Barkley Rosser (1999). Between Vienna and Cambridge: The Risky Business of New Austrian Business‐Cycle Theory. Critical Review 13 (3-4):373-389.
    Abstract Tyler Cowen's ?New Austrian? theory of business cycles is based on risk analysis and the assumption of rational expectations. This contrasts with the Old Austrian view, which questions the feasibility of measuring economic risk. Despite Cowen's admirable eclecticism, the way he applies risk analysis to business cycles suffers from serious inconsistencies, and his use of rational expectations is mistaken in the face of economic complexity?a phenomenon that was accurately understood by the traditional Austrians.
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  39. J. Barkley Rosser & Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser (1994). Long Wave Chaos and Systemic Economic Transformation. World Futures 39 (4):197-207.
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  40. J. Barkley Rosser (1978/2008). Logic for Mathematicians. Dover Publications.
     
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  41. J. Barkley Rosser (1977). Many-Valued Logics. Greenwood Press.
  42. J. Barkley Rosser (1975). Review: William B. Easton, Powers of Regular Cardinals; J. R. Shoenfield, Unramified Forcing. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 40 (3):460-461.
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  43. J. Barkley Rosser (1970). Review: Karl Schroter, Methoden zur Axiomatisierung Beliebiger Aussagen- und Pradikatenkalkule. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 35 (1):140-140.
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  44. J. Barkley Rosser (1968). Review: Harald Dickson, Variable, Function, Derivative. A Semantic Study in Mathematics and Economics. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 33 (2):284-285.
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  45. J. Barkley Rosser (1967). Review: Haskell B. Curry, Combinatory Logic. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 32 (2):267-268.
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  46. J. Barkley Rosser (1964). Review: S. C. Kleene, Lambda-Definable Functionals of Finite Types. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 29 (2):104-105.
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  47. J. Barkley Rosser (1962). Review: Joseph Dopp, Essai d'Une Presentation de la Logique Combinatoire. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 27 (1):77-77.
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  48. David D. Comey & J. Barkley Rosser (1960). Review: Stephen Cole Kleene, A. S. Esenin-Vol'pin, V. A. Uspenskij, Vvedenie v Metamatematiku. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 25 (3):280-282.
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  49. J. Barkley Rosser (1960). Axiomatization of Infinite-Valued Logics. Logique Et Analyse 3:137-153.
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  50. J. Barkley Rosser (1959). Review: Daniel Lacombe, Roger Apery, Maurice Frechet, Daniel Lacombe, Andre Lalande, Jean Porte, Jean Ullmo, Maurice Frechet, Les Idees Actuelles Sur la Structure des Mathematiques; Daniel Lacombe, Expose Complementaire Sur le Theoreme de Godel. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 24 (3):228-229.
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