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  1. Jiaying Zhao & Daniel Osherson, Detecting Deviations From Randomness.
    We explore the ability to distinguish random from non-random events. Randomness is defined in terms of radioactive decay whereas non-randomness is quantified by excess repetitions (“repeat”) or alternations (“switch”) between successive bits. In the first four experiments no mention was made of randomness, probability, or related concepts in task instructions. We found superior performance in distinguishing random stimuli from repeat stimuli compared to switch stimuli. The last three experiments explicitly evoked the concept of randomness, thus allowing comparison of perceptual and (...)
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  2. Jiaying Zhao & Daniel Osherson, Descriptive Assessment of Jeffrey's Rule.
    Jeffrey (1983) proposed a generalization of conditioning as a means of updating probability distributions when new evidence drives no event to certainty. His rule requires the stability of certain conditional probabilities through time. We tested this assumption (“invariance”) from the psychological point of view. In Experiment 1 participants offered probability estimates for events in Jeffrey’s candlelight example. Two further scenarios were investigated in Experiment 2, one in which invariance seems justified, the other in which it does not. Results were in (...)
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  3. Jiaying Zhao & Daniel Osherson (2013). Category-Based Updating. Thinking and Reasoning 20 (1):1-15.
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  4. Jiaying Zhao, Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori, Branden Fitelson & Daniel Osherson (2012). Updating: Learning Versus Supposing. Cognition 124 (3):373-378.
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  5. Daniel Osherson & Jiaying Zhao (2011). Updating Beliefs in Light of Uncertain Evidence: Descriptive Assessment of Jeffrey's Rule. Thinking and Reasoning 16 (4):288-307.
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  6. Jiaying Zhao, Anuj Shah & Daniel Osherson (2009). On the Provenance of Judgments of Conditional Probability. Cognition 113 (1):26-36.
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