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  1. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, Wahrscheinlichkeiistheorie.
    uniquely into a convex combination of a countably additive probability and a purely finitely additive (PFA) one. The coefficient of the PFA probability..
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  2. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane, Preference for Equivalent Random Variables: A Price for Unbounded Utilities.
    When real-valued utilities for outcomes are bounded, or when all variables are simple, it is consistent with expected utility to have preferences defined over probability distributions or lotteries. That is, under such circumstances two variables with a common probability distribution over outcomes – equivalent variables – occupy the same place in a preference ordering. However, if strict preference respects uniform, strict dominance in outcomes between variables, and if indifference between two variables entails indifference between their difference and the status quo, (...)
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  3. Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld, What Experiment Did We Just Do?
    Experimenters sometimes insist that it is unwise to examine data before determining how to analyze them, as it creates the potential for biased results. I explore the rationale behind this methodological guideline from the standpoint of an error statistical theory of evidence, and I discuss a method of evaluating evidence in some contexts when this predesignation rule has been violated. I illustrate the problem of potential bias, and the method by which it may be addressed, with an example from the (...)
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  4. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (forthcoming). Stopping to Reflect. Journal of Philosophy.
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  5. Gordon Belot, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane, Miles MacLeod, Nancy J. Nersessian, Hylarie Kochiras, Bryan W. Roberts, Elay Shech & Richard Healey (2013). 1. Bayesian Orgulity Bayesian Orgulity (Pp. 483-503). Philosophy of Science 80 (4).
     
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  6. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2013). The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions. Philosophy of Science 80 (4):504-532.
  7. Teddy Seidenfel, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2012). What Kind of Uncertainty is That? Using Personal Probability for Expressing One's Thinking About Logical and Mathematical Propositions. Journal of Philosophy 109 (8-9):516-533.
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  8. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2010). Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty. Synthese 172 (1):157 - 176.
    We discuss several features of coherent choice functions —where the admissible options in a decision problem are exactly those that maximize expected utility for some probability/utility pair in fixed set S of probability/utility pairs. In this paper we consider, primarily, normal form decision problems under uncertainty—where only the probability component of S is indeterminate and utility for two privileged outcomes is determinate. Coherent choice distinguishes between each pair of sets of probabilities regardless the “shape” or “connectedness” of the sets of (...)
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  9. Joseph B. Kadane & Gaia Bellone (2009). De Finetti on Risk Aversion. Economics and Philosophy 25 (2):153-159.
    According to Mark Rubinstein (2006) The purpose of this note is to ascertain the extent to which this is true, and at the same time, to correct certain minor errors that appear in de Finetti's work.
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  10. Joseph B. Kadane, Mark Schervish & Teddy Seidenfield (2008). Is Ignorance Bliss? Journal of Philosophy 105 (1):5-36.
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  11. Joseph B. Kadane, Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark J. Schervish, A Rubinesque Theory of Decision.
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  12. Alex John London & Joseph B. Kadane (2003). Sham Surgery and Genuine Standards of Care: Can the Two Be Reconciled? American Journal of Bioethics 3 (4):61-64.
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  13. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2002). A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing. Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S248-S264.
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  14. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2002). A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed‐Level Testing. Philosophy of Science 69 (S3):S248-S264.
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  15. Robert F. Bordley & Joseph B. Kadane (1999). Experiment-Dependent Priors in Psychology and Physics. Theory and Decision 47 (3):213-227.
    Sometimes conducting an experiment to ascertain the state of a system changes the state of the system being measured. Kahneman & Tversky modelled this effect with ‘support theory’. Quantum physics models this effect with probability amplitude mechanics. As this paper shows, probability amplitude mechanics is similar to support theory. Additionally, Viscusi's proposed generalized expected utility model has an analogy in quantum mechanics.
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  16. Joseph B. Kadane, Christopher A. Stone & Garrick Wallstrom (1999). The Donation Paradox for Peremptory Challenges. Theory and Decision 47 (2):139-155.
    A donation paradox occurs when a player gives an apparently valuable prerogative to another player, but ‘does better’, according to some criterion. Peremptory challenges, used in choosing a American jury, permit each side to veto a certain number of potential jurors. With even a very simple model of jury selection, it is shown that for one side to give a peremptory challenge to the other side may lead to a more favorable jury, an instance of the donation paradox. Both a (...)
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  17. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, Two Measures of Incoherence: How Not to Gamble If You Must.
    The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by either of two rates at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is considered as an investment from the points of view of both the bookie and a gambler who takes the bet. From each viewpoint, we define an amount invested (or escrowed) for each bet, and the sure loss of incoherent previsions is divided by the escrow (...)
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  18. Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld (1996). When Several Bayesians Agree That There Will Be No Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion. Philosophy of Science 63 (3):289.
    When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspective of an onlooker who agrees with the investigator about the statistical model (...)
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  19. Joseph B. Kadane (1992). Healthy Scepticism as an Expected-Utility Explanation of the Phenomena of Allais and Ellsberg. Theory and Decision 32 (1):57-64.
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  20. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, State-Dependent Utilities.
    Several axiom systems for preference among acts lead to a unique probability and a state-independent utility such that acts are ranked according to their expected utilities. These axioms have been used as a foundation for Bayesian decision theory and subjective probability calculus. In this article we note that the uniqueness of the probability is relative to the choice of whatcounts as a constant outcome. Although it is sometimes clear what should be considered constant, in many cases there are several possible (...)
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  21. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane, Decisions Without Ordering.
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  22. Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane & Mark J. Schervish (1989). On the Shared Preferences of Two Bayesian Decision Makers. Journal of Philosophy 86 (5):225-244.
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  23. Joseph B. Kadane (1986). Progress Toward a More Ethical Method for Clinical Trials. Journal of Medicine and Philosophy 11 (4):385-404.
    Methodology for conducting clinical trials of new drugs and treatments on people need not be regarded as fixed. After reviewing the currently most popular method (randomization) and its ethical problems, this paper explores the possibilities of a new method for conducting such trials. It relies on new Bayesian technology for eliciting the opinions of medical experts. These opinions are conditioned on specific predictor variables, and are held in a computer. At any stage in a trial, these opinions can be updated (...)
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  24. Jessi Cisewski, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Rafael Stern, The Rest of Sleeping Beauty.
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