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Leonid Grinin [23]Leonid E. Grinin [2]
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  1. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2014). Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting? World Futures 70 (8):515-545.
    The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening (...)
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  2. Leonid Grinin (2012). Macrohistory and Globalization. Uchitel Publishing House.
    The present monograph considers some macrohistorical trends along with the aspects of globalization. Macrohistory is history on the large scale that tells the story of the entire world or of some major dimensions of historical process. For the present study three aspects of macrohistory have been chosen. These are technological and political aspects, as well as the one of historical personality. Taken together they give a definite picture of unfolding historical process which is described from the beginning of human society (...)
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  3. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2012). Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration? World Futures 68 (7):471 - 505.
    In a previous article, ?The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future? (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on (...)
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  4. Leonid Grinin (2011). Complex Chiefdom: Precursor of the State or Its Analogue? Social Evolution and History 10 (1):234–275.
    It is often noted in the academic literature that chiefdoms frequently prove to be troublesome for scholars because of the disagreement as to whether to categorize this or that polity as a complex chiefdom or as an early state. This is no wonder, because complex chiefdoms, early states, as well as different other types of sociopolitical systems (large confederations, large self-governed civil and temple communities etc.) turn out to be at the same evolutionary level. In the present article it is (...)
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  5. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2011). The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future. World Futures 67 (8):531 - 563.
    This article analyzes some important aspects of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article is devoted to the study of some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. In particular, it is shown that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global (...)
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  6. Leonid Grinin (2010). The Role of the Individual in History: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution and History 9 (2).
    This article is devoted to the significant at all times and sounding anew in every epoch problem of the role of an individual (also a Hero, Great Man) in history, including such an aspect as the role of an individual in the process of state formation and progress. It is argued that in the age of globalization, when the humankind has found itself at the new developmental turning point, in the epoch when the influence of various individuals could affect dramatically (...)
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  7. Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.) (2010). History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    A more and more important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. The history is studied more and more as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. This issue is the third collective monograph in the series of (...)
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  8. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2010). Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions. Journal of Globalization Studies 1 (2):166-183.
    This article presents possible answers, and their respective probabilities, to the question, ‘What are the consequences of the present global crisis in the proximate future of the World System?’ It also attempts to describe the basic characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’ and to forecast certain future conditions. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What does the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System centre mean? Will there be a (...)
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  9. Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev & Sergey Malkov (2010). A Mathematical Model of Juglar Cycles and the Current Global Crisis. In Leonid Grinin, Peter Herrmann, Andrey Korotayev & Arno Tausch (eds.), History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics.
    The article presents a verbal and mathematical model of medium-term business cycles (with a characteristic period of 7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles. The model takes into account a number of approaches to the analysis of such cycles; in the meantime it also takes into account some of the authors' own generalizations and additions that are important for understanding the internal logic of the cycle, its variability and its peculiarities in the present-time conditions. The authors argue that the most important (...)
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  10. Leonid Grinin (2009). 'People of Celebrity' as a New Social Stratum and Elite. In Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Cultural Dimensions. Moscow: KRASAND.
    However, strange though it may seem, personal celebrity (as well as fame, popularity etc.) is hardly included in the list of those resources. This happens despite the increasing role of this phenome-non in modern life and the fact that the aspiration for it affects value aims of a growing number of people. What is more, it begins to influence the changes of social relations and stratification. The subject of the present article is the investigation of the influence of the personal (...)
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  11. Leonid Grinin (2009). The Pathways of Politogenesis and Models of the Early State Formation. Social Evolution and History 8 (1):92-132.
    This article considers concrete manifestations of the politogenesis multilinearity and the variation of its forms; it analyzes the main causes that determined the politogenetic pathway of a given society. The respective factors include the polity's size, its ecological and social environment. The politogenesis should be never reduced to the only one evolutionary pathway leading to the statehood. The early state formation was only one of many versions of development of complex late archaic social systems. The author designates various complex non-state (...)
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  12. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2009). Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Cultural Dimensions. Moscow: KRASAND.
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  13. Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477 – 506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  14. Leonid Grinin, Alexander Markov, Markov & Andrey Korotayev (2009). Aromorphoses in Biological and Social Evolution: Some General Rules for Biological and Social Forms of Macroevolution. Social Evolution and History 8 (2).
    The comparison between biological and social macroevolution is a very important (though insufficiently studied) subject whose analysis renders new significant possibilities to comprehend the processes, trends, mechanisms, and peculiarities of each of the two types of macroevolution. Of course, there are a few rather important (and very understandable) differences between them; however, it appears possible to identify a number of fundamental similarities. One may single out at least three fundamental sets of factors determining those similarities. First of all, those similarities (...)
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  15. Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin (2009). Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures 65 (7):477-506.
    There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed (...)
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  16. Leonid Grinin (2008). Early State, Developed State, Mature State: The Statehood Evolutionary Sequence. Social Evolution and History 7 (1).
    In the theory of the early state it was fundamentally new and important from a methodological point of view to define the early state as a separate stage of evolution essentially different from the following stage, the one of the full-grown or mature state. ‘To reach the early state level is one thing, to develop into a full-blown, or mature state is quite another’ (Claessen and Skalník 1978b: 22). At the same time they (as well as a number of other (...)
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  17. Leonid Grinin (2008). Periodization of History. Proceedings of the Xxii World Congress of Philosophy 38:33-40.
    Many historians and philosophers emphasize the great importance of periodization for the study of history. There is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, though it deals with exceptionally complex types of processual and temporal phenomena. For any periodization its basis is a very important point. One can choose different bases for periodization if he constantly uses the same criteria. According to the theory that we propose, the historical process can be subdivided more (...)
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  18. Leonid Grinin (2008). Transformation of Sovereignty and Globalization. In Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity. Librocom.
    . In our opinion, the processes of changing of sovereignty nowadays are among those of much significance. Presumably, if such processes (of course with much fluctuation) gain strength it will surely affect all spheres of life, including change of ideology and social psychology (the moment which is still underestimated by many analysts). Generally speaking, notwithstanding an avalanche of works devoted to the transformation of sovereignty, some topical aspects of the problem mentioned appear to have been disregarded. The present article is (...)
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  19. Leonid Grinin, Dmitry Beliaev & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2008). Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilisations: Political Aspects of Modernity. Librocom.
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  20. Leonid Grinin (2007). Once More on the Question of the Role of Personality in History. The Proceedings of the Twenty-First World Congress of Philosophy 12:169-173.
    In order for the philosophy of history to be a really necessary methodological science in relation to theoretical and epistemological problems of history, it is quite necessary to get away from the practice of general discourse and from attempts to find universal solutions suitable for all times. On the contrary, it is desirable to focus on a search for principles and for methods of applying them to the problems of different levels, which, by no means predetermining the results of concrete (...)
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  21. Leonid Grinin (2007). Production Revolutions and Periodization of History: A Comparative and Theoretic-Mathematical Approach. Social Evolution and History 6 (2).
    There is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, but it deals with exceptionally complex types of processual and temporal phenomena and thus it simplifies historical reality. Many scholars emphasize the great importance of periodization for the study of history. In fact, any periodization suffers from one-sidedness and certain deviations from reality. However, the number and significance of such deviations can be radically diminished as the effectiveness of periodization is directly connected with its (...)
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  22. Dmitri M. Bondarenko, Leonid E. Grinin & Andrey V. Korotayev (2004). Alternatives of Social Evolution. In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. 3--27.
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  23. Leonid Grinin (2004). Early State and Democracy. In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. 419--463.
    The present article is devoted to the problem which is debated actively to-day, namely whether Greek poleis and the Roman Republic were early states or they represented a specific type of stateless societies. In particular, Moshe Berent examines this problem by the example of Athens in his contribution to this volume. He arrives at the conclusion that Athens was a stateless society. However, I am of the opinion that this conclusion is wrong: and I believe that Athens and Rome were (...)
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  24. Leonid E. Grinin (2004). The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis. In Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.), The Early State, its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House. 88--136.
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  25. Leonid Grinin, Robert Carneiro, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nikolay Kradin & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) (2004). The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues. ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House.
    Henri JM Claessen Was the State Inevitable? ● Leonid E. Grinin The Early State and Its Analogues: A Comparative Analysis ...
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