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  1. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, Wahrscheinlichkeiistheorie.
    uniquely into a convex combination of a countably additive probability and a purely finitely additive (PFA) one. The coefficient of the PFA probability..
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  2. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane, Preference for Equivalent Random Variables: A Price for Unbounded Utilities.
    When real-valued utilities for outcomes are bounded, or when all variables are simple, it is consistent with expected utility to have preferences defined over probability distributions or lotteries. That is, under such circumstances two variables with a common probability distribution over outcomes – equivalent variables – occupy the same place in a preference ordering. However, if strict preference respects uniform, strict dominance in outcomes between variables, and if indifference between two variables entails indifference between their difference and the status quo, (...)
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  3. Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld, What Experiment Did We Just Do?
    Experimenters sometimes insist that it is unwise to examine data before determining how to analyze them, as it creates the potential for biased results. I explore the rationale behind this methodological guideline from the standpoint of an error statistical theory of evidence, and I discuss a method of evaluating evidence in some contexts when this predesignation rule has been violated. I illustrate the problem of potential bias, and the method by which it may be addressed, with an example from the (...)
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  4. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (forthcoming). Stopping to Reflect. Journal of Philosophy.
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  5. Gordon Belot, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane, Miles MacLeod, Nancy J. Nersessian, Hylarie Kochiras, Bryan W. Roberts, Elay Shech & Richard Healey (2013). 1. Bayesian Orgulity Bayesian Orgulity (Pp. 483-503). Philosophy of Science 80 (4).
     
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  6. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2013). The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions. Philosophy of Science 80 (4):504-532.
  7. Teddy Seidenfel, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2012). What Kind of Uncertainty is That? Using Personal Probability for Expressing One's Thinking About Logical and Mathematical Propositions. Journal of Philosophy 109 (8-9):516-533.
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  8. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2010). Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty. Synthese 172 (1):157 - 176.
    We discuss several features of coherent choice functions —where the admissible options in a decision problem are exactly those that maximize expected utility for some probability/utility pair in fixed set S of probability/utility pairs. In this paper we consider, primarily, normal form decision problems under uncertainty—where only the probability component of S is indeterminate and utility for two privileged outcomes is determinate. Coherent choice distinguishes between each pair of sets of probabilities regardless the “shape” or “connectedness” of the sets of (...)
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  9. Joseph B. Kadane, Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark J. Schervish, A Rubinesque Theory of Decision.
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  10. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2002). A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing. Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S248-S264.
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  11. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane (2002). A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed‐Level Testing. Philosophy of Science 69 (S3):S248-S264.
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  12. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, Two Measures of Incoherence: How Not to Gamble If You Must.
    The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by either of two rates at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is considered as an investment from the points of view of both the bookie and a gambler who takes the bet. From each viewpoint, we define an amount invested (or escrowed) for each bet, and the sure loss of incoherent previsions is divided by the escrow (...)
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  13. Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish & Teddy Seidenfeld (1996). When Several Bayesians Agree That There Will Be No Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion. Philosophy of Science 63 (3):289.
    When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspective of an onlooker who agrees with the investigator about the statistical model (...)
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  14. Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Joseph B. Kadane, State-Dependent Utilities.
    Several axiom systems for preference among acts lead to a unique probability and a state-independent utility such that acts are ranked according to their expected utilities. These axioms have been used as a foundation for Bayesian decision theory and subjective probability calculus. In this article we note that the uniqueness of the probability is relative to the choice of whatcounts as a constant outcome. Although it is sometimes clear what should be considered constant, in many cases there are several possible (...)
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  15. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane, Decisions Without Ordering.
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  16. Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph B. Kadane & Mark J. Schervish (1989). On the Shared Preferences of Two Bayesian Decision Makers. Journal of Philosophy 86 (5):225-244.
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  17. Teddy Seidenfeld & Mark J. Schervish (1983). A Conflict Between Finite Additivity and Avoiding Dutch Book. Philosophy of Science 50 (3):398-412.
    For Savage (1954) as for de Finetti (1974), the existence of subjective (personal) probability is a consequence of the normative theory of preference. (De Finetti achieves the reduction of belief to desire with his generalized Dutch-Book argument for Previsions.) Both Savage and de Finetti rebel against legislating countable additivity for subjective probability. They require merely that probability be finitely additive. Simultaneously, they insist that their theories of preference are weak, accommodating all but self-defeating desires. In this paper we dispute these (...)
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  18. Jessi Cisewski, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld & Rafael Stern, The Rest of Sleeping Beauty.
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