1. Michael K. Miller, Guanchun Wang, Sanjeev R. Kulkarni & Daniel N. Osherson, Wishful Thinking and Social Influence in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election.
    This paper analyzes individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, ours is the first study of electoral forecasting to involve multiple subnational predictions and to incorporate the influence of respondents’ home states. We relate a range of demographic, political, and cognitive variables to individual accuracy and predictions, as well as to how accuracy improved over time. We find strong support for wishful thinking bias in expectations, as (...)
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  2. Michael K. Miller (2008). Judgment Aggregation and Subjective Decision-Making. Economics and Philosophy 24 (2):205-231.
    I present an original model in judgment aggregation theory that demonstrates the general impossibility of consistently describing decision-making purely at the group level. Only a type of unanimity rule can guarantee a group decision is consistent with supporting reasons, and even this possibility is limited to a small class of reasoning methods. The key innovation is that this result holds when individuals can reason in different ways, an allowance not previously considered in the literature. This generalizes judgment aggregation to subjective (...)
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  3. Michael K. Miller & C. Shannon Stokes (1985). Teenage Fertility, Socioeconomic Statue and Infant Mortality. Journal of Biosocial Science 17 (2):147-155.
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