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Michael Smithson [7]Michael J. Smithson [2]
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Profile: Michael Smithson (Australian National University)
  1. Alan Hájek & Michael Smithson (2012). Rationality and Indeterminate Probabilities. Synthese 187 (1):33-48.
    We argue that indeterminate probabilities are not only rationally permissible for a Bayesian agent, but they may even be rationally required . Our first argument begins by assuming a version of interpretivism: your mental state is the set of probability and utility functions that rationalize your behavioral dispositions as well as possible. This set may consist of multiple probability functions. Then according to interpretivism, this makes it the case that your credal state is indeterminate. Our second argument begins with our (...)
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  2. Michael Smithson (2012). A Simple Statistic for Comparing Moderation of Slopes and Correlations. Frontiers in Psychology 3.
    Given a linear relationship between two continuous random variables $X$ and $Y$ that may be moderated by a third, $Z$, the extent to which the correlation $\rho$ is (un)moderated by $Z$ is equivalent to the extent to which the regression coefficients $\beta_y$ and $\beta_x$ are (un)moderated by $Z$ iff the variance ratio $\sigma_y^2/\sigma_x^2$ is constant over the range or states of $Z$. Otherwise, moderation of slopes and of correlations must diverge. Most of the literature on this issue focuses on tests (...)
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  3. Michael Smithson (2011). How Many Alternatives? Partitions Pose Problems for Predictions and Diagnoses. Social Epistemology 23 (3):347-360.
    This paper focuses on one matter that poses a problem for both human judges and standard probability frameworks, namely the assumption of a unique (privileged) and complete partition of the state-space of possible events. This is tantamount to assuming that we know all possible outcomes or alternatives in advance of making a decision, but it is clear that there are many practical situations in prediction, diagnosis, and decision-making where such partitions are contestable and/or incomplete. The paper begins by surveying the (...)
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  4. Michael J. Smithson (2008). Social Theories of Ignorance. In Robert N. Proctor & Londa Schiebinger (eds.), Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance. Stanford University Press Stanford, California. 209--229.
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  5. Michael Smithson (2006). Scale Construction From a Decisional Viewpoint. Minds and Machines 16 (3):339-364.
    Many quantitative scales are constructed using cutoffs on a continuum with scores assigned to the cutoffs. This paper develops a framework for using or constructing such scales from a decision-making standpoint. It addresses questions such as: How many distinct thresholds or cutoffs on a scale (i.e., what levels of granularity) are useful for a rational agent? Where should these thresholds be placed given a rational agent’s preferences and risk-orientation? Do scale score assignments have any bearing on decision-making and if so, (...)
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  6. Joseph P. Reser & Michael J. Smithson (1988). When Ignorance is Adaptive: Not Knowing About the Nuclear Threat. Knowledge in Society 1 (4):7-27.
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  7. Michael Smithson (1985). Toward a Social Theory of Ignorance. Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 15 (2):151–172.
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  8. Michael Smithson (1982). Models for Fuzzy Nominal Data. Theory and Decision 14 (1):51-74.
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  9. Michael Smithson (1980). Interests and the Growth of Uncertainty. Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 10 (3):157–168.
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