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  1. Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann (2012). Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits? Critical Review 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
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  2. Philip E. Tetlock (2010). Second Thoughts Aboutexpert Political Judgment:Reply to the Symposium. Critical Review 22 (4):467-488.
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  3. Philip E. Tetlock (2005). Gauging the Heuristic Value of Heuristics. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (4):562-563.
    Heuristics are necessary but far from sufficient explanations for moral judgment. This commentary stresses: (a) the need to complement cold, cognitive-economizing functionalist accounts with hot, value-expressive, social-identity-affirming accounts; and (b) the importance of conducting reflective-equilibrium thought and laboratory experiments that explore the permeability of the boundaries people place on the “thinkable.”.
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  4. Philip E. Tetlock & Erika Henik (2005). Theory- Versus Imagination-Driven Thinking About Historical Counterfactuals: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions? In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge.
     
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  5. Hal R. Arkes & Philip E. Tetlock (2004). Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or" Would Jesse Jackson'Fail'the Implicit Association Test?", 15 Psychol. Inquiry 257:275.
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  6. Philip E. Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes (2004). The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy, 15 Psychol. Inquiry 311.
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  7. Philip E. Tetlock (2003). Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7 (7):320-324.
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  8. Philip E. Tetlock (1998). The Ever‐Shifting Psychological Foundations of Democratic Theory: Do Citizens Have the Right Stuff? Critical Review 12 (4):545-561.
    Abstract Timur Kuran's Private Truths, Public Lies makes a compelling case that people often misrepresent their private preferences in response to real or imagined social pressures, that the relative power of competing interest groups to punish opinion deviance and reward conformity determines the patterns and pervasiveness of preference falsification, and that preference falsifi?cation helps explain such diverse outcomes as the persistence and sudden collapse of communism and the precarious persistence of racial preferences in the United States and of the caste (...)
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  9. Philip E. Tetlock (1994). The Consequences of Taking Consequentialism Seriously. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31.
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  10. Philip E. Tetlock (1991). Some Thoughts About Thought Systems. In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum. 4--197.
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  11. A. S. R. Manstead, Philip E. Tetlock & Tony Manstead (1989). Cognitive Appraisals and Emotional Experience: Further Evidence. Cognition and Emotion 3 (3):225-239.
  12. Philip E. Tetlock (1989). The Selfishness-Altruism Debate: In Defense of Agnosticism. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (4):723.
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