Search results for 'Philip E. Tetlock' (try it on Scholar)

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  1.  7
    Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann (2012). Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits? Critical Review 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
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  2.  2
    Alan Page Fiske & Philip E. Tetlock (1997). Taboo Trade-Offs: Reactions to Transactions That Transgress the Spheres of Justice. Political Psychology 18 (2):255-297.
    Taboo trade-offs violate deeply held normative intuitions about the integrity, even sanctity, of certain relationships and the moral-political values underlying those relationships. For instance, if asked to estimate the monetary worth of one's children, of one's loyalty to one's country, or of acts of friendship, people find the questions more than merely confusing or cognitively intractable: they find such questions themselves morally offensive. This article draws on Fiske's relational theory and Tetlock's value pluralism model: to identify the conditions under (...)
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  3. Philip E. Tetlock (2003). Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7 (7):320-324.
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  4.  11
    José L. Duarte, Jarret T. Crawford, Charlotta Stern, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim & Philip E. Tetlock (2014). Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences:1-54.
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  5. Hal R. Arkes & Philip E. Tetlock (2004). ""Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or" Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail'the Implicit Association Test?", 15 Psychol. Inquiry 257:275.
     
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  6.  11
    A. S. R. Manstead, Philip E. Tetlock & Tony Manstead (1989). Cognitive Appraisals and Emotional Experience: Further Evidence. Cognition and Emotion 3 (3):225-239.
  7.  3
    Philip E. Tetlock (1989). The Selfishness-Altruism Debate: In Defense of Agnosticism. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (4):723.
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  8.  2
    David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock (2016). Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising. Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  9. Philip E. Tetlock & Erika Henik (2005). Theory- Versus Imagination-Driven Thinking About Historical Counterfactuals: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions? In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge
     
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  10.  15
    Philip E. Tetlock (2010). Second Thoughts Aboutexpert Political Judgment:Reply to the Symposium. Critical Review 22 (4):467-488.
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  11.  11
    Philip E. Tetlock (1994). The Consequences of Taking Consequentialism Seriously. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31.
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  12. Philip E. Tetlock (2002). Social Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors. Psychological Review 109 (3):451-471.
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  13.  2
    Philip E. Tetlock (1998). The Ever‐Shifting Psychological Foundations of Democratic Theory: Do Citizens Have the Right Stuff? Critical Review 12 (4):545-561.
    Abstract Timur Kuran's Private Truths, Public Lies makes a compelling case that people often misrepresent their private preferences in response to real or imagined social pressures, that the relative power of competing interest groups to punish opinion deviance and reward conformity determines the patterns and pervasiveness of preference falsification, and that preference falsifi?cation helps explain such diverse outcomes as the persistence and sudden collapse of communism and the precarious persistence of racial preferences in the United States and of the caste (...)
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  14. Philip E. Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes (2004). The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy, 15 Psychol. Inquiry 311.
     
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  15.  18
    Philip E. Tetlock (2005). Gauging the Heuristic Value of Heuristics. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (4):562-563.
    Heuristics are necessary but far from sufficient explanations for moral judgment. This commentary stresses: (a) the need to complement cold, cognitive-economizing functionalist accounts with hot, value-expressive, social-identity-affirming accounts; and (b) the importance of conducting reflective-equilibrium thought and laboratory experiments that explore the permeability of the boundaries people place on the “thinkable.”.
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  16. Philip E. Tetlock & Antony S. Manstead (1985). Impression Management Versus Intrapsychic Explanations in Social Psychology: A Useful Dichotomy? Psychological Review 92 (1):59-77.
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  17. Philip E. Tetlock (1991). Some Thoughts About Thought Systems. In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum 4--197.
  18. Jarret T. Crawford, José L. Duarte, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, Charlotta Stern & Philip E. Tetlock (2015). It May Be Harder Than We Thought, but Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38.
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  19. Katrina M. Fincher & Philip E. Tetlock (2016). Perceptual Dehumanization of Faces is Activated by Norm Violations and Facilitates Norm Enforcement. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145 (2):131-146.
  20. Barbara A. Mellers, Michael P. Haselhuhn, Philip E. Tetlock, José C. Silva & Alice M. Isen (2010). Predicting Behavior in Economic Games by Looking Through the Eyes of the Players. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 139 (4):743-755.
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  21. J. R. Martel (2008). Review Essays: Who Am I to Judge?: The Heart of Judgment: Practical Wisdom, Neuroscience, and Narrative, by Leslie Paul Thiele. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006. 321 Pp. $85.00 . Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005. 321 Pp. $19.95. [REVIEW] Political Theory 37 (2):290-295.
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  22. Philip Tetlock & Aaron Belkin (1996). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives. Monograph Collection (Matt - Pseudo).
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  23.  5
    Ross King, Whelan D., E. Kenneth, Ffion Jones, Reiser M., G. K. Philip, Christopher Bryant, Muggleton H., H. Stephen, Douglas Kell, Oliver B. & G. Stephen (2004). Functional Genomic Hypothesis Generation and Experimentation by a Robot Scientist. Nature 427 (6971):247--52.
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  24.  1
    Barbara Mellers, Eric Stone, Pavel Atanasov, Nick Rohrbaugh, S. Emlen Metz, Lyle Ungar, Michael M. Bishop, Michael Horowitz, Ed Merkle & Philip Tetlock (2015). The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 21 (1):1-14.
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  25.  3
    B. R. Philip & H. E. Peixotto (1943). Generalization in the Initial Stages of Learning Nonsense Syllables: I. Integral Responses. Journal of Experimental Psychology 33 (1):50.
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  26.  1
    B. R. Philip & H. E. Peixotto (1943). Generalization in the Initial Stages of Learning Nonsense Syllables: II. Partial and Inadequate Responses. Journal of Experimental Psychology 33 (2):136.
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  27. Franklin Philip, Francis Crick, Anthony Serafini, Arthur Kornberg & Lily E. Kay (1992). The Statue Within. Journal of the History of Biology 25 (1):149-155.
     
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  28.  17
    Philip E. Devine (1996). Creation and Evolution: PHILIP E. DEVINE. Religious Studies 32 (3):325-337.
    Despite the bad reputation of the legal profession, law remains king in America. A highly diverse society relies on the laws to maintain a working sense of the dignity and inviability of each individual. And a persistent element in contemporary debates is the fear that naturalistic theories of the human person will erode our belief that we have a dignity greater than that of other natural objects. Thus the endurance of the creation vs. evolution debate is due less to the (...)
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  29.  11
    Philip E. Devine (1978). The Moral Basis of Vegetarianism: Philip E. Devine. Philosophy 53 (206):481-505.
    If someone abstains from meat-eating for reasons of taste or personal economics, no moral or philosophical question arises. But when a vegetarian attempts to persuade others that they, too, should adopt his diet, then what he says requires philosophical attention. While a vegetarian might argue in any number of ways, this essay will be concerned only with the argument for a vegetarian diet resting on a moral objection to the rearing and killing of animals for the human table. The vegetarian, (...)
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  30.  2
    Philip E. Devine (1975). The Religious Significance of the Ontological Argument: PHILIP E.DEVINE. Religious Studies 11 (1):97-116.
    It seems clear that the ontological argument can no longer be dismissed as a silly fallacy. The dogma of the impossibility of necessary existence is seriously threatened by the case of necessary existential truths in mathematics, and as for the claim that the ontological argument must beg the question, since by mentioning God in the premise his existence is presupposed, it is undermined by the fact that we often refer to things—Hamlet for instance— we do not for a moment think (...)
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  31.  1
    Philip E. Devine (1980). Homicide Revisited: Philip E. Devine. Philosophy 55 (213):329-347.
    Jonathan Glover and I, while not in such deep disagreement about the ethics of killing as to make all communication impossible, still disagree enough to make sustained confrontation worthwhile. At minimum, such confrontation should make it clear what are the most fundamental issues at stake in ethical arguments about various kinds of killing.
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  32. Philip E. Devine (1975). Does St Anselm Beg the Question?: Philip E. Devine. Philosophy 50 (193):271-281.
    The following objection to the ‘ontological’ argument of St Anselm has a continuing importance. The argument begs the question by introducing into the first premise the name ‘God’. In order for something to be truly talked about, to have properties truly attributed to it—it has been said—it must exist; a statement containing a vacuous name must either be false, meaningless, or lacking in truth-value, if it is not a misleading formulation to be explained by paraphrase into other terms. In any (...)
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  33. Walter Leszl (1970). Philip Merlan e la metafisica aristotelica. Rivista di Storia Della Filosofia 25 (1):3.
    The paper offers a discussion of Philip Merlan's contributions (in "From Platonism to Neoplatonism, The Hague 1960, e in some papers of his, now included in his "Kleine Philosophische Schriften", Hildesheim 1976) to the understanding of Aristotle's metaphysics, with particular reference to the science of being qua being.
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  34. E. Nissan (1997). On Computational Theories of Interaction and Agency (Philip E. Agre and Stanley J. Rosenschein, Eds). Pragmatics and Cognition 5:384-394.
     
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  35. B. A. (1998). Philip E. Devine. Human Diversity and the Culture Wars: Philosophical Perspectives on Contemporary Cultural Conflict. (Wesport, Connecticut: Praeger.) Pp. 192. £43.95. [REVIEW] Religious Studies 34 (2):231-234.
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  36.  14
    John Goyette (2001). Devine, Philip E. Natural Law Ethics. Review of Metaphysics 54 (4):914-915.
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  37.  6
    Paul Carus (1911). The New Logic and the New Mathematics. In Comment on Mr. Philip E. B. Jourdain's Articles. The Monist 21 (4):630-633.
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  38.  8
    Patrick Lee (1981). The Ethics of Homicide. By Philip E. Devine. Modern Schoolman 59 (1):75-76.
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  39.  5
    Barrie Paskins (1982). The Ethics of Homicide By Philip E. Devine Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1978, 248 Pp., $12.95. [REVIEW] Philosophy 57 (220):272-.
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  40.  7
    Peter R. Grillo (1987). Wolfgang van Emden and Philip E. Bennett, Eds., with Alexander Kerr, Guillaume d'Orange and the Chanson de Geste: Essays Presented to Duncan McMillan in Celebration of His Seventieth Birthday by His Friends and Colleagues of the Société Rencesvals. Reading, Eng.: Société Rencesvals (British Branch), 1984. Paper. Pp. Xi, 218; Frontispiece. [REVIEW] Speculum 62 (1):242-243.
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  41.  7
    Laurence Dickie (2001). Devine, Philip E., Natural Law Ethics. Teaching Business Ethics 5 (4):475-476.
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  42.  3
    A. B. P. (1998). Philip E. Devine. Human Diversity and the Culture Wars: Philosophical Perspectives on Contemporary Cultural Conflict. (Wesport, Connecticut: Praeger.) Pp. 192. £43.95. [REVIEW] Religious Studies 34 (2):231-234.
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  43.  2
    Alice M. Colby-Hall (2008). Philip E. Bennett, Carnaval héroïque et écriture cyclique dans la geste de Guillaume d'orange. Paris: Honoré Champion, 2006. Pp. 431. €97.28. [REVIEW] Speculum 83 (4):954-956.
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  44.  2
    Jane Ellen Harrison (1917). Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, by Philip E. B. Jourdain. Ethics 28 (1):129.
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  45.  1
    Jacques Follon (2003). Philip E. Johnson, Le darwinisme en question: science ou métaphysique? Traduit de l'américain et préfacé par Laurent Guyénot. Postface du Dr. Anne Dambricourt-Malassé. Deuxième édition revue et augmentée. [REVIEW] Revue Philosophique De Louvain 101 (2):340-344.
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  46.  1
    J. (1920). Essays on the Life and Work of Newton by Augustus De Morgan; Philip E. B. Jourdain. [REVIEW] Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 3:283-285.
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  47.  1
    J. (1920). Newton's Hypotheses of Ether and of Gravitation From 1693 to 1726 by Philip E. B. Jourdain; Newton. [REVIEW] Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 3:288-289.
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  48.  1
    J. (1920). The Flying Arrow; An Anachronism by Philip E. B. Jourdain. [REVIEW] Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 3:277-278.
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  49.  1
    H. B. Miles (1970). Intelligence and Cultural Environment. By Philip E Vernon. Pp. Vii+257. (Methuen, London, 1969.) Price 45s. Journal of Biosocial Science 2 (2):147-150.
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  50.  1
    George Sarton & Laura Jourdain (1923). Philip E. B. Jourdain. Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 5 (2):126-136.
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