Search results for 'Prediction' (try it on Scholar)

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  1. Roberto Festa (2007). Verisimilitude, Cross Classification and Prediction Logic. Approaching the Statistical Truth by Falsified Qualitative Theories. Mind and Society 6 (1):91-114.score: 24.0
    In this paper it is argued that qualitative theories (Q-theories) can be used to describe the statistical structure of cross classified populations and that the notion of verisimilitude provides an appropriate tool for measuring the statistical adequacy of Q-theories. First of all, a short outline of the post-Popperian approaches to verisimilitude and of the related verisimilitudinarian non-falsificationist methodologies (VNF-methodologies) is given. Secondly, the notion of Q-theory is explicated, and the qualitative verisimilitude of Q-theories is defined. Afterwards, appropriate measures for the (...)
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  2. Kristin Andrews (2003). Knowing Mental States: The Asymmetry of Psychological Prediction and Explanation. In Quentin Smith & Aleksandar Jokic (eds.), Consciousness: New Philosophical Perspectives. Oxford University Press.score: 24.0
    Perhaps because both explanation and prediction are key components to understanding, philosophers and psychologists often portray these two abilities as though they arise from the same competence, and sometimes they are taken to be the same competence. When explanation and prediction are associated in this way, they are taken to be two expressions of a single cognitive capacity that differ from one another only pragmatically. If the difference between prediction and explanation of human behavior is merely pragmatic, (...)
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  3. [deleted]Elliot C. Brown & Martin Brüne (2012). The Role of Prediction in Social Neuroscience. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 6 (147):147-147.score: 24.0
    Research has shown that the brain is constantly making predictions about future events. Theories of prediction in perception, action and learning suggest that the brain serves to reduce the discrepancies between expectation and actual experience, i.e. by reducing the prediction error. Forward models of action and perception propose the generation of a predictive internal representation of the expected sensory outcome, which is matched to the actual sensory feedback. Shared neural representations have been found when experiencing one’s own and (...)
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  4. Jennie Louise (2009). I Won't Do It! Self-Prediction, Moral Obligation and Moral Deliberation. Philosophical Studies 146 (3):327 - 348.score: 24.0
    This paper considers the question of whether predictions of wrongdoing are relevant to our moral obligations. After giving an analysis of ‘won’t’ claims (i.e., claims that an agent won’t Φ), the question is separated into two different issues: firstly, whether predictions of wrongdoing affect our objective moral obligations, and secondly, whether self-prediction of wrongdoing can be legitimately used in moral deliberation. I argue for an affirmative answer to both questions, although there are conditions that must be met for self- (...) to be appropriate in deliberation. The discussion illuminates an interesting and significant tension between agency and prediction. (shrink)
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  5. Simon Blackburn (1973). Reason and Prediction. London,Cambridge University Press.score: 24.0
    An original study of the philosophical problems associated with inductive reasoning. Like most of the main questions in epistemology, the classical problem of induction arises from doubts about a mode of inference used to justify some of our most familiar and pervasive beliefs. The experience of each individual is limited and fragmentary, yet the scope of our beliefs is much wider; and it is the relation between belief and experience, in particular the belief that the future will in some respects (...)
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  6. John Byron Manchak (2008). Is Prediction Possible in General Relativity? Foundations of Physics 38 (4):317-321.score: 24.0
    Here we briefly review the concept of "prediction" within the context of classical relativity theory. We prove a theorem asserting that one may predict one's own future only in a closed universe. We then question whether prediction is possible at all (even in closed universes). We note that interest in prediction has stemmed from considering the epistemological predicament of the observer. We argue that the definitions of prediction found thus far in the literature do not fully (...)
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  7. Friedrich Stadler (2011). The Road to "Experience and Prediction" From Within: Hans Reichenbach's Scientific Correspondence From Berlin to Istanbul. Synthese 181 (1):137 - 155.score: 24.0
    Ever since the first meeting of the proponents of the emerging Logical Empiricism in 1923, there existed philosophical differences as well as personal rivalries between the groups in Berlin and Vienna, headed by Hans Reichenbach and Moritz Schlick, respectively. Early theoretical tensions between Schlick and Reichenbach were caused by Reichenbach's (neo) Kantian roots (esp. his version of the relativized a priori), who himself regarded the Vienna Circle as a sort of anti-realist "positivist school"—as he described it in his Experience and (...)
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  8. Andy Clark (2013). The Many Faces of Precision (Replies to Commentaries on “Whatever Next? Neural Prediction, Situated Agents, and the Future of Cognitive Science”). Frontiers in Psychology 4.score: 24.0
    An appreciation of the many roles of ‘precision-weighting’ (upping the gain on select populations of prediction error units) opens the door to better accounts of planning and ‘offline simulation’, makes suggestive contact with large bodies of work on embodied and situated cognition, and offers new perspectives on the ‘active brain’. Combined with the complex affordances of language and culture, and operating against the essential backdrop of a variety of more biologically basic ploys and stratagems, the result is a maximally (...)
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  9. Lincoln Colling, William Thompson & John Sutton (2013). Motor Experience Interacts with Effector Information During Action Prediction. Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society:2082-2087.score: 24.0
    Recent theory suggests that action prediction relies of a motor emulation mechanism that works by mapping observed actions onto the observer action system so that predictions can be generated using that same predictive mechanisms that underlie action control. This suggests that action prediction may be more accurate when there is a more direct mapping between the stimulus and the observer. We tested this hypothesis by comparing prediction accuracy for two stimulus types. A mannequin stimulus which contained information (...)
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  10. Michael D. Lee, Mark Steyvers, Mindy de Young & Brent Miller (2012). Inferring Expertise in Knowledge and Prediction Ranking Tasks. Topics in Cognitive Science 4 (1):151-163.score: 24.0
    We apply a cognitive modeling approach to the problem of measuring expertise on rank ordering problems. In these problems, people must order a set of items in terms of a given criterion (e.g., ordering American holidays through the calendar year). Using a cognitive model of behavior on this problem that allows for individual differences in knowledge, we are able to infer people's expertise directly from the rankings they provide. We show that our model-based measure of expertise outperforms self-report measures, taken (...)
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  11. Stephen D. O'Leary (1997). Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: The Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction. [REVIEW] Argumentation 11 (3):293-313.score: 24.0
    This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (O‘Leary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake (...), in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bell‘sdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation. (shrink)
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  12. Anne Springer, Simone Brandstädter & Wolfgang Prinz (2013). Dynamic Simulation and Static Matching for Action Prediction: Evidence From Body Part Priming. Cognitive Science 37 (5):936-952.score: 24.0
    Accurately predicting other people's actions may involve two processes: internal real-time simulation (dynamic updating) and matching recently perceived action images (static matching). Using a priming of body parts, this study aimed to differentiate the two processes. Specifically, participants played a motion-controlled video game with either their arms or legs. They then observed arm movements of a point-light actor, which were briefly occluded from view, followed by a static test pose. Participants judged whether this test pose depicted a coherent continuation of (...)
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  13. [deleted]A. Bubic, D. Y. Cramon & R. I. Schubotz (2009). Prediction, Cognition and the Brain. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 4:25-25.score: 24.0
    The term “predictive brain” depicts one of the most relevant concepts in cognitive neuroscience which emphasizes the importance of “looking into the future”, namely prediction, preparation, anticipation, prospection or expectations in various cognitive domains. Analogously, it has been suggested that predictive processing represents one of the fundamental principles of neural computations and that errors of prediction may be crucial for driving neural and cognitive processes as well as behavior. This review discusses research areas which have recognized the importance (...)
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  14. Fabian Chersi, Marcello Ferro, Giovanni Pezzulo & Vito Pirrelli (2014). Topological Self‐Organization and Prediction Learning Support Both Action and Lexical Chains in the Brain. Topics in Cognitive Science 6 (3):476-491.score: 24.0
    A growing body of evidence in cognitive psychology and neuroscience suggests a deep interconnection between sensory-motor and language systems in the brain. Based on recent neurophysiological findings on the anatomo-functional organization of the fronto-parietal network, we present a computational model showing that language processing may have reused or co-developed organizing principles, functionality, and learning mechanisms typical of premotor circuit. The proposed model combines principles of Hebbian topological self-organization and prediction learning. Trained on sequences of either motor or linguistic units, (...)
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  15. Hanneke Em den Ouden, Peter Kok & Floris P. De Lange (2012). How Prediction Errors Shape Perception, Attention, and Motivation. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 24.0
    Prediction errors are a central notion in theoretical models of reinforcement learning, perceptual inference, decision-making and cognition, and prediction error signals have been reported across a wide range of brain regions and experimental paradigms. Here, we will make an attempt to see the forest for the trees, considering the commonalities and differences of reported prediction errors signals in light of recent suggestions that the computation of prediction errors forms a fundamental mode of brain function. We discuss (...)
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  16. Gary Lupyan (2012). Language Augmented Prediction. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 24.0
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  17. W. Garrett Mitchener (2011). A Mathematical Model of Prediction-Driven Instability: How Social Structure Can Drive Language Change. [REVIEW] Journal of Logic, Language and Information 20 (3):385-396.score: 24.0
    I discuss a stochastic model of language learning and change. During a syntactic change, each speaker makes use of constructions from two different idealized grammars at variable rates. The model incorporates regularization in that speakers have a slight preference for using the dominant idealized grammar. It also includes incrementation: The population is divided into two interacting generations. Children can detect correlations between age and speech. They then predict where the population’s language is moving and speak according to that prediction, (...)
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  18. Malte Schilling, Katharina Rohlfing & Holk Cruse (2012). Prediction as Internal Simulation: Taking Chances in What to Do Next. Frontiers in Psychology 3:405.score: 24.0
    Prediction as Internal Simulation: Taking Chances in What to Do Next.
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  19. [deleted]Sonja A. Kotz Sarah Jessen (2013). On the Role of Crossmodal Prediction in Audiovisual Emotion Perception. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 7.score: 24.0
    Humans rely on multiple sensory modalities to determine the emotional state of others. In fact, such multisensory perception may be one of the mechanisms explaining the ease and efficiency by which others’ emotions are recognized. But how and when exactly do the different modalities interact? One aspect in multisensory perception that has received increasing interest in recent years is the concept of crossmodal prediction. In emotion perception, as in most other settings, visual information precedes the auditory one. Thereby, leading (...)
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  20. [deleted]Waltraud Stadler, Derek V. M. Ott, Anne Springer, Ricarda I. Schubotz, Simone Schütz-Bosbach & Wolfgang Prinz (2012). Repetitive TMS Suggests a Role of the Human Dorsal Premotor Cortex in Action Prediction. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 6.score: 24.0
    Predicting the actions of other individuals is crucial for our daily interactions. Recent evidence suggests that the prediction of object-directed arm and full-body actions employs the PMd. Thus, the neural substrate involved in action control may also be essential for action prediction. Here, we aimed to address this issue and hypothesised that disrupting the PMd impairs action prediction. Using fMRI-guided coil navigation, rTMS (5 pulses, 10 Hz) was applied over the left PMd and over the vertex (control (...)
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  21. David Trafimow (2013). To Disconfirm or Not to Disconfirm: A Null Prediction Vs. No Prediction. Frontiers in Psychology 4.score: 24.0
    To disconfirm or not to disconfirm: a null prediction vs. no prediction.
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  22. Takuya Honda, Nobuhiro Hagura, Toshinori Yoshioka & Hiroshi Imamizu (2013). Imposed Visual Feedback Delay of an Action Changes Mass Perception Based on the Sensory Prediction Error. Frontiers in Psychology 4.score: 24.0
    While performing an action, the timing of when the sensory feedback is given can be used to establish the causal link between the action and its consequence. It has been shown that delaying the visual feedback while carrying an object makes people feel the mass of the object to be greater, suggesting that the feedback timing can also impact the perceived quality of an external object. In this study, we investigated the origin of the feedback timing information that influences the (...)
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  23. [deleted]Matthew D. Lieberman Joshua C. Poore, Jennifer H. Pfeifer, Elliot T. Berkman, Tristen K. Inagaki, Benjamin L. Welborn (2012). Prediction-Error in the Context of Real Social Relationships Modulates Reward System Activity. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 6.score: 24.0
    The human reward system is sensitive to both social (e.g., validation) and non-social rewards (e.g., money) and is likely integral for relationship development and reputation building. However, data is sparse on the question of whether implicit social reward processing meaningfully contributes to explicit social representations such as trust and attachment security in pre-existing relationships. This event-related fMRI experiment examined reward system prediction-error activity in response to a potent social reward—social validation—and this activity’s relation to both attachment security and trust (...)
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  24. [deleted]André Lee, Shinichi Furuya, Matthias Karst & Eckart Altenmüller (2013). Alteration in Forward Model Prediction of Sensory Outcome of Motor Action in Focal Hand Dystonia. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 7.score: 24.0
    Focal hand dystonia in musicians is a movement disorder affecting highly trained movements. Rather than being a pure motor disorder related to movement execution only, movement planning, error prediction and sensorimotor integration are also impaired. Internal models, of which two types, forward and inverse models have been described and most likely processed in the cerebellum, are known to be involved in these tasks. Recent results indicate that the cerebellum may be involved in the pathophysiology of focal dystonia. Thus the (...)
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  25. J. P. De Ruiter Lilla Magyari (2012). Prediction of Turn-Ends Based on Anticipation of Upcoming Words. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 24.0
    During conversation listeners have to perform several tasks simultaneously. They have to comprehend their interlocutor’s turn, while also having to prepare their own next turn. Moreover, a careful analysis of the timing of natural conversation reveals that next speakers also time their turns very precisely. This is possible only if listeners can predict accurately when the speaker’s turn is going to end. But how are people able to predict when a turn ends? We propose that people know when a turn (...)
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  26. Maarten Speekenbrink Magda Osman (2012). Prediction and Control in a Dynamic Environment. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 24.0
    The present study compared the accuracy of cue-outcome knowledge gained during prediction-based and control-based learning in stable and unstable dynamic environments. Participants either learnt to make cue interventions in order to control an outcome, or learnt to predict the outcome from observing changes to the cue values. Study 1 (N = 60) revealed that in tests of control, after a short period of familiarization, performance of Predictors was equivalent to Controllers. Study 2 (N = 28) showed that Controllers showed (...)
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  27. Sébastien Paquette, Genevieve Mignault Goulet & Kathrin Rotermich (2013). Prediction, Attention and Unconscious Processing in Hierarchical Auditory Perception. Frontiers in Psychology 4:955.score: 24.0
    Prediction, attention, and unconscious processing in hierarchical auditory perception.
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  28. [deleted]P. Read Montague Ramiro Salas, Philip Baldwin, Mariella de Biasi (2010). BOLD Responses to Negative Reward Prediction Errors in Human Habenula. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 4.score: 24.0
    Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Although positive reward prediction error, a key element in learning that is signaled by dopamine cells has been extensively studied, little is known about negative reward prediction errors in humans. Detailed animal electrophysiology (...)
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  29. [deleted]Joshua C. Poore, Jennifer H. Pfeifer, Elliot T. Berkman, Tristen K. Inagaki, Benjamin L. Welborn & Matthew D. Lieberman (2012). Prediction-Error in the Context of Real Social Relationships Modulates Reward System Activity. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 6.score: 24.0
    The human reward system is sensitive to both social (e.g., validation) and non-social rewards (e.g., money) and is likely integral for relationship development and reputation building. However, data is sparse on the question of whether implicit social reward processing meaningfully contributes to explicit social representations such as trust and attachment security in pre-existing relationships. This event-related fMRI experiment examined reward system prediction-error activity in response to a potent social reward—social validation—and this activity’s relation to both attachment security and trust (...)
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  30. Gregor Betz (2010). What’s the Worst Case? The Methodology of Possibilistic Prediction. Analyse and Kritik 32 (1):87-106.score: 22.0
    Frank Knight (1921) famously distinguished the epistemic modes of certainty, risk, and uncertainty in order to characterize situations where deterministic, probabilistic or possibilistic foreknowledge is available. Because our probabilistic knowledge is limited, i.e. because many systems, e.g. the global climate, cannot be described and predicted probabilistically in a reliable way, Knight's third category, possibilistic foreknowledge, is not simply swept by the probabilistic mode. This raises the question how to justify possibilistic predictionsincluding the identication of the worst case. The development of (...)
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  31. Gregor Betz (2006). Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences. DUV.score: 22.0
    Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
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  32. Genevieve Maricle (2011). Prediction as an Impediment to Preparedness: Lessons From the US Hurricane and Earthquake Research Enterprises. Minerva 49 (1):87-111.score: 22.0
    No matter one’s wealth or social position, all are subject to the threats of natural hazards. Be it fire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or drought, the reality of hazard risk is universal. In response, governments, non-profits, and the private sector all support research to study hazards. Each has a common end in mind: to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities. While this end goal is shared across hazards, the conception of how to get there can diverge considerably. The earthquake and (...)
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  33. Ayhan Sol & Halil Turan (2004). The Ethics of Earthquake Prediction. Science and Engineering Ethics 10 (4):655-666.score: 22.0
    Scientists’ responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be (...)
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  34. Talis Bachmann (2012). Neurobiological Mechanisms Behind the Spatiotemporal Illusions of Awareness Used for Advocating Prediction or Postdiction. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 22.0
    The fact that it takes time for the brain to process information from the changing environment underlies many experimental phenomena of awareness of spatiotemporal events, including a number of astonishing illusions. These phenomena have been explained from the predictive and postdictive theoretical perspectives. Here I describe the most extensively studied phenomena in order to see how well the two perspectives can explain them. Next, the neurobiological perceptual retouch mechanism of producing stimulation awareness is characterized and its work in causing the (...)
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  35. Nicholas Shea (2014). Reward Prediction Error Signals Are Meta‐Representational. Noûs 48 (2):314-341.score: 21.0
  36. L. Jonathan Cohen (1979). On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose is the Fallacy? Cognition 7 (December):385-407.score: 21.0
  37. Carlton W. Berenda (1953). On Emergence and Prediction. Journal of Philosophy 50 (April):269-74.score: 21.0
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  38. Haskell Fain (1958). Prediction and Constraint. Mind 67 (July):366-378.score: 21.0
  39. SteveAnthony FleetwoodHesketh (2006). Prediction in Social Science - The Case of Research on the Human Resource Management-Organisational Performance Link. [REVIEW] Journal of Critical Realism 5 (2):228-250.score: 21.0
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  40. Petter Næss (2010). Prediction, Regressions and Critical Realism. Journal of Critical Realism 3 (1):133-164.score: 21.0
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  41. Regina Pally (2005). Non-Conscious Prediction and a Role for Consciousness in Correcting Prediction Errors. Cortex. Special Issue 41 (5):643-662.score: 21.0
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  42. Gregor Betz (2011). Prediction. In Ian Jarvie & Jesus Zamora-Bonilla (eds.), Handbook of Philosophy of Social Science. Sage.score: 21.0
  43. Peter L. Derks & Marianne I. Paclisanu (1967). Simple Strategies in Binary Prediction by Children and Adults. Journal of Experimental Psychology 73 (2):278.score: 21.0
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  44. Natalie Sebanz & Guenther Knoblich (2009). Prediction in Joint Action: What, When, and Where. Topics in Cognitive Science 1 (2):353-367.score: 21.0
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  45. [deleted]Chiara Gambi & Martin J. Pickering (2013). Prediction and Imitation in Speech. Frontiers in Psychology 4.score: 21.0
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  46. G. Bonanno (2001). Prediction in Branching Time Logic. Mathematical Logic Quarterly 47 (2):239-248.score: 21.0
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  47. [deleted]Jennifer T. Coull (2008). Using Time-To-Contact Information to Assess Potential Collision Modulates Both Visual and Temporal Prediction Networks. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 2:10.score: 21.0
  48. Julian O. Morrissette & William H. Pearson (1963). Prediction of Behavior Under Conditions of Uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology 65 (4):391.score: 21.0
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  49. Tsukasa Nakamura, Osamu Takahashi, Kunihiko Matsui, Shiro Shimizu, Motoichi Setoyama, Masahisa Nakagawa, Tsuguya Fukui & Takeshi Morimoto (2006). Clinical Prediction Rules for Bacteremia and in‐Hospital Death Based on Clinical Data at the Time of Blood Withdrawal for Culture: An Evaluation of Their Development and Use. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 12 (6):692-703.score: 21.0
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  50. Abram M. Barch (1961). Prediction of Recurrent Sequences as Related to Level of Irrelevant Cues. Journal of Experimental Psychology 61 (5):410.score: 21.0
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