Search results for 'Prediction (Psychology' (try it on Scholar)

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  1.  55
    L. Jonathan Cohen (1979). On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose is the Fallacy? Cognition 7 (December):385-407.
  2.  15
    David Loye (1995). Prediction in Chaotic Social, Economic, and Political Conditions: The Conflict Between Traditional Chaos Theory and the Psychology of Prediction, and Some Implications for General Evolution Theory. World Futures 44 (1):15-31.
    (1995). Prediction in chaotic social, economic, and political conditions: The conflict between traditional chaos theory and the psychology of prediction, and some implications for general evolution theory. World Futures: Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 15-31.
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  3. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky (1973). On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review 80 (4):237-251.
    Considers that intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic-representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness was supported in a series of studies with both naive and sophisticated university students. The ranking of outcomes by likelihood coincided with the ranking (...)
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  4.  69
    M. Forster & Lawrence A. Shapiro (2000). Prediction and Accommodation in Evolutionary Psychology. Psychological Inquiry 11:31-33.
    Ketelaar and Ellis have provided a remarkably clear and succinct statement of Lakatosian philosophy of science and have also argued compellingly that the neo-Darwinian theory of evolution fills the Lakatosian criteria of progressivity. We find ourselves in agreement with much of what Ketelaar and Ellis say about Lakatosian philosophy of science, but have some questions about (1) the place of evolutionary psychology in a Lakatosian framework, and (2) the extent to which evolutionary psychology truly predicts new findings.
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  5. Barbara Mellers, Eric Stone, Pavel Atanasov, Nick Rohrbaugh, S. Emlen Metz, Lyle Ungar, Michael M. Bishop, Michael Horowitz, Ed Merkle & Philip Tetlock (2015). The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 21 (1):1-14.
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  6. T. R. Sarbin (1944). The Logic of Prediction in Psychology. Psychological Review 51 (4):210-228.
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  7. Charles A. Baylis (1948). Passmore J. A.. Logical Positivism. The Australasian Journal of Psychology and Philosophy, Vol. 21 , Pp. 65–92, and Vol. 22 , Pp. 129–153.Passmobe J. A.. Prediction and Scientific Law. The Australasian Journal of Psychology and Philosophy, Vol. 21 , Vol. 24 , Pp. 1–33. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 13 (1):58.
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  8. G. Raymond Stone (1952). Prediction in Clinical Psychology and Behavior Theory. Psychological Review 59 (2):95-97.
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  9. K. F. Walker (1941). Sociology and Psychology in the Prediction of Behaviour. Psychological Review 48 (5):443-449.
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  10. Daniel D. Hutto (2004). The Limits of Spectatorial Folk Psychology. Mind and Language 19 (5):548-73.
    It is almost universally agreed that the main business of commonsense psychology is that of providing generally reliable predictions and explanations of the actions of others. In line with this, it is also generally assumed that we are normally at theoretical remove from others such that we are always ascribing causally efficacious mental states to them for the purpose of prediction, explanation and control. Building on the work of those who regard our primary intersubjective interactions as a form of (...)
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  11. Adam Morton (1996). Folk Psychology is Not a Predictive Device. Mind 105 (417):119-37.
    I argue that folk psychology does not serve the purpose of facilitating prediction of others' behaviour but if facilitating cooperative action. (See my subsequent book *The Importance of Being Understood*.
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  12. Neil Van Leeuwen (2013). Review of Kristin Andrews' Do Apes Read Minds? Toward a New Folk Psychology. [REVIEW] Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews 4.
    Kristin Andrews proposes a new framework for thinking about folk psychology, which she calls Pluralistic Folk Psychology. Her approach emphasizes kinds of psychological prediction and explanation that don't rest on propositional attitude attribution. Here I review some elements of her theory and find that, although the approach is very promising, there's still work to be done before we can conclude that the manners of prediction and explanation she identifies don't involve implicit propositional attitude attribution.
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  13.  59
    A. R. Louch (1962). Science and Psychology. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 12 (February):314-327.
  14.  27
    Donald F. Gustafson (1964). Explanation in Psychology. Mind 73 (April):280-281.
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  15.  77
    Eric Hochstein (2012). Minds, Models and Mechanisms: A New Perspective on Intentional Psychology. Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence 24 (4):547-557.
    In this article, I argue that intentional psychology (i.e. the interpretation of human behaviour in terms of intentional states and propositional attitudes) plays an essential role in the sciences of the mind. However, this role is not one of identifying scientifically respectable states of the world. Rather, I argue that intentional psychology acts as a type of phenomenological model, as opposed to a mechanistic one. I demonstrate that, like other phenomenological models in science, intentional psychology is a methodological tool with (...)
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  16. Kristin Andrews (2008). It's in Your Nature: A Pluralistic Folk Psychology. Synthese 165 (1):13 - 29.
    I suggest a pluralistic account of folk psychology according to which not all predictions or explanations rely on the attribution of mental states, and not all intentional actions are explained by mental states. This view of folk psychology is supported by research in developmental and social psychology. It is well known that people use personality traits to predict behavior. I argue that trait attribution is not shorthand for mental state attributions, since traits are not identical to beliefs or desires, and (...)
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  17.  53
    Kristin Andrews (2008). It's in Your Nature: A Pluralistic Folk Psychology. Synthese 165 (1):13 - 29.
    I suggest a pluralistic account of folk psychology according to which not all predictions or explanations rely on the attribution of mental states, and not all intentional actions are explained by mental states. This view of folk psychology is supported by research in developmental and social psychology. It is well known that people use personality traits to predict behavior. I argue that trait attribution is not shorthand for mental state attributions, since traits are not identical to beliefs or desires, and (...)
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  18. Christopher Gauker (2003). Attitudes Without Psychology. Facta Philosophica 5 (2):239-56.
    Many philosophers hold that beliefs and desires are theoretical entities postulated for the sake of predicting and explaining people's behaviors. This paper offers a very different perspective on the nature of beliefs and desires. According to this, the first step is to understand the nature of assertion and command. Then, to understand the nature of belief and desire, what one must do is extend one's understanding of assertion and commandto assertions and commands on behalf of others; for to attribute a (...)
     
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  19. Joshua Knobe (2006). The Concept of Intentional Action: A Case Study in the Uses of Folk Psychology. Philosophical Studies 130 (2):203-231.
    It is widely believed that the primary function of folk psychology lies in the prediction, explanation and control of behavior. A question arises, however, as to whether folk psychology has also been shaped in fundamental ways by the various other roles it plays in people’s lives. Here I approach that question by considering one particular aspect of folk psychology – the distinction between intentional and unintentional behaviors. The aim is to determine whether this distinction is best understood as a (...)
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  20.  14
    Fabian Chersi, Marcello Ferro, Giovanni Pezzulo & Vito Pirrelli (2014). Topological Self‐Organization and Prediction Learning Support Both Action and Lexical Chains in the Brain. Topics in Cognitive Science 6 (3):476-491.
    A growing body of evidence in cognitive psychology and neuroscience suggests a deep interconnection between sensory-motor and language systems in the brain. Based on recent neurophysiological findings on the anatomo-functional organization of the fronto-parietal network, we present a computational model showing that language processing may have reused or co-developed organizing principles, functionality, and learning mechanisms typical of premotor circuit. The proposed model combines principles of Hebbian topological self-organization and prediction learning. Trained on sequences of either motor or linguistic units, (...)
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  21.  27
    Raymond J. Nelson (1975). Behaviorism, Finite Automata, and Stimulus-Response Theory. Theory and Decision 6 (August):249-67.
    In this paper it is argued that certain stimulus-response learning models which are adequate to represent finite automata (acceptors) are not adequate to represent noninitial state input-output automata (transducers). This circumstance suggests the question whether or not the behavior of animals if satisfactorily modelled by automata is predictive. It is argued in partial answer that there are automata which can be explained in the sense that their transition and output functions can be described (roughly, Hempel-type covering law explanation) while their (...)
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  22.  7
    James A. Beshai (1971). Psychology's Dilemma: To Explain or To Understand. Journal of Phenomenological Psychology 1 (2):209-223.
    At one time behavioristic psychology depreciated the value of introspection and descriptive observation in an attempt to exorcise the ghosts of mentalism and introspectionism. The roots of this bias were traced to a Cartesian dualism of subject and object. Behavioristic research has typically concentrated on a specific kind of data requiring the controls of a detached third-person observer. Its findings have been far removed from the concrete "lived world" of the subject, notwithstanding the sophistication and utility of its experimental designs. (...)
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  23. Peter Hayward (2008). Developing Wisdom: How Foresight Develops in Individuals and Groups. Vdm Verlag Dr. Müller.
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  24.  60
    Michael A. Bishop (2005). Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment. Oxford University Press.
    Bishop and Trout here present a unique and provocative new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Their approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, Bishop and Trout show how (...)
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  25. Kristin Andrews, The Functions of Folk Psychology.
    The debates about the form of folk psychology and the potential eliminability of folk psychology rest on a particular view about how humans understand other minds. That is, though folk psychology is described as --œour commonsense conception of psychological phenomena--� (Churchland 1981, p. 67), there have been implicit assumptions regarding the nature of that commonsense conception. It has been assumed that folk psychology involves two practices, the prediction and explanation of behavior. And it has been assumed that one cognitive (...)
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  26.  10
    Emmanuel M. Pothos & Jerome R. Busemeyer (2013). Quantum Principles in Psychology: The Debate, the Evidence, and the Future. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):310-327.
    The attempt to employ quantum principles for modeling cognition has enabled the introduction of several new concepts in psychology, such as the uncertainty principle, incompatibility, entanglement, and superposition. For many commentators, this is an exciting opportunity to question existing formal frameworks (notably classical probability theory) and explore what is to be gained by employing these novel conceptual tools. This is not to say that major empirical challenges are not there. For example, can we definitely prove the necessity for quantum, as (...)
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  27.  40
    Mark Nesti (2011). Phenomenology and Sports Psychology: Back To The Things Themselves! Sport, Ethics and Philosophy 5 (3):285 - 296.
    It is argued that the increasing interest in the use of phenomenological methods in sport psychology could help rescue research in this area from its current obsession with measurement and prediction. Phenomenology proceeds from a very different set of philosophical assumptions from the natural science approach that underlies most research and practice in sport psychology. Phenomenology insists that psychology should focus on meaning and investigate the essence of human experience. The concept of anxiety occupies a central position within phenomenological (...)
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  28.  26
    Harald Atmanspacher & Hans Primas (1996). The Hidden Side of Wolfgang Pauli: An Eminent Physicists Extraordinary Encounter with Depth Psychology. Journal of Consciousness Studies 3 (2):112-126.
    Wolfgang Pauli is well recognized as an outstanding theoretical physicist, famous for his formulation of the two-valuedness of the electron spin, for the exclusion principle, and for his prediction of the neutrino. Less well known is the fact that Pauli spent a lot of time in different avenues of human experience and scholarship, ranging over fields such as the history of ideas, philosophy, religion, alchemy and Jung's psychology. Pauli's philosophical and particularly his psychological background is not overt in his (...)
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  29. Michael A. Bishop & J. D. Trout (2004). Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment. Oxford University Press Usa.
    Bishop and Trout here present a unique and provocative new approach to epistemology. Their approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, Bishop and Trout show how people can improve their reasoning by relying (...)
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  30.  78
    Robyn M. Dawes (2002). The Ethics of Using or Not Using Statistical Prediction Rules in Psychological Practice and Related Consulting Activities. Proceedings of the Philosophy of Science Association 2002 (3):S178-S184.
    Professionals often believe that they must “exercise judgment” in making decisions critical to other people’s lives. The relative superiority of statistical prediction rules to intuitive judgment for combining incomparable sources of information to predict important human outcomes leads us to question this personal input belief. Some professionals hence use SPR’s to “educate” intuitive judgment, rather than replace it. In psychology in particular, such amalgamation is not justified. If a well‐validated SPR that is superior to professional judgment exists in a (...)
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  31.  17
    Michael A. Bishop & J. D. Trout (2005). Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment. OUP Usa.
    Bishop and Trout here present a unique and provocative new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Their approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic epistemology, and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science. The approach is novel in its use of cost-benefit analysis to guide people facing real reasoning problems and in its framework for resolving normative disputes in psychology. Based on empirical data, Bishop and Trout show how (...)
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  32.  14
    Christopher D. Green, Classics in the History of Psychology.
    Psychology as the behaviorist views it is a purely objective experimental branch of natural science. Its theoretical goal is the prediction and control of behavior. Introspection forms no essential part of its methods, nor is the scientific value of its data dependent upon the readiness with which they lend themselves to interpretation in terms of consciousness. The behaviorist, in his efforts to get a unitary scheme of animal response, recognizes no dividing line between man and brute. The behavior of (...)
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  33.  5
    Charles S. Wallis (1990). Stich, Content, Prediction, and Explanation in Cognitive Science. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990:327 - 340.
    In this paper I consider Stich's principle of autonomy argument (From Folk Psychology To Cognitive Science) as an argument that computationalism is an incorrect approach to explanation and prediction in cognitive science. After considering the principle of autonomy argument in light of several computational systems and psychological examples, I conclude that the argument is unsound. I formulate my reasons for rejecting Stich's argument as unsound into the conjunction argument. Finally, I argue that the conjunction argument is sound, and that (...)
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  34. Andy Clark (2016). Surfing Uncertainty: Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind. Oxford University Press Usa.
    How is it that thoroughly physical material beings such as ourselves can think, dream, feel, create and understand ideas, theories and concepts? How does mere matter give rise to all these non-material mental states, including consciousness itself? An answer to this central question of our existence is emerging at the busy intersection of neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and robotics.In this groundbreaking work, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores exciting new theories from these fields that reveal minds like ours to (...)
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  35. Shaun Nichols (1992). Commonsense Psychology. Dissertation, Rutgers the State University of New Jersey - New Brunswick
    In contemporary philosophy of mind, the status of commonsense psychology has been vigorously discussed. However, philosophers have spent relatively little time determining what the commonsense theory is. In the thesis, I try to uncover the essential features of commonsense psychology. I use philosophical analysis as well as evidence from anthropology, linguistics, and psychology to develop an account of the theory. ;In the first chapter, I defend the claim that we rely on a psychological theory in the lay prediction of (...)
     
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  36.  10
    Peter L. Derks & Marianne I. Paclisanu (1967). Simple Strategies in Binary Prediction by Children and Adults. Journal of Experimental Psychology 73 (2):278.
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  37.  2
    E. Scott Geller & Charles P. Whitman (1972). Prediction Outcome and Choice Reaction Time: A Memory-Dependent Relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology 96 (2):334.
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  38. E. Scott Geller (1974). Preceding Prediction Outcome and Prediction Outcome Probability: Interacting Determinants of Choice Reaction Time. Journal of Experimental Psychology 103 (3):426.
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  39.  4
    Julian O. Morrissette & William H. Pearson (1963). Prediction of Behavior Under Conditions of Uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology 65 (4):391.
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  40.  1
    Max S. Schoeffler (1962). Prediction of Some Stochastic Events: A Regret Equalization Model. Journal of Experimental Psychology 64 (6):615.
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  41.  1
    William W. Grings & Harriet I. Sukoneck (1971). Prediction Probability as a Determiner of Anticipatory and Preparatory Electrodermal Behavior. Journal of Experimental Psychology 91 (2):310.
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  42.  1
    Werner K. Honig (1962). Prediction of Preference, Transposition, and Transposition-Reversal From the Generalization Gradient. Journal of Experimental Psychology 64 (3):239.
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  43.  1
    Charles P. Whitman & E. Scott Geller (1972). Sequential Effects of Stimulus Probability and Prediction Outcome on Choice Reaction Time. Journal of Experimental Psychology 93 (2):373.
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  44.  2
    John J. Furedy & John Scull (1971). Orienting-Reaction Theory and an Increase in the Human GSR Following Stimulus Change Which is Unpredictable but Not Contrary to Prediction. Journal of Experimental Psychology 88 (2):292.
  45.  2
    Charles P. Whitman & E. Scott Geller (1972). Prediction Outcome and Choice Reaction Time: Stimulus Versus Response Anticipation. Journal of Experimental Psychology 93 (1):193.
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  46. E. Scott Geller & Gordon F. Pitz (1970). Effects of Prediction, Probability, and Run Length on Choice Reaction Speed. Journal of Experimental Psychology 84 (2):361.
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  47.  1
    E. Scott Geller (1974). Prediction Outcome of a Response-Irrelevant Stimulus as a Determinant of Choice Reaction Time. Journal of Experimental Psychology 103 (3):546.
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  48.  1
    Lloyd R. Peterson (1956). Prediction of Response in Verbal Habit Hierarchies. Journal of Experimental Psychology 51 (4):249.
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  49.  1
    Wayne Lee & W. R. Garner (1966). Prediction and Estimation of a Random Fluctuation. Journal of Experimental Psychology 71 (4):516.
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  50.  1
    Richard Colker & Jerome L. Myers (1971). Effects of Sequential Structure Upon Binary Prediction Under an All-Correct Procedure. Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (2):416.
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