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  1. Raymond Dacey (forthcoming). Guest Editor's Preface: Formal Analysis in International Relations. Synthese.
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  2. Lisa J. Carlson & Raymond Dacey (2010). Social Norms and the Traditional Deterrence Game. Synthese 176 (1):105 - 123.
    Bicchieri (The grammar of society: The nature and dynamics of norms, 2006, xi) presents a formal analysis of norms that answers the questions of "when, how, and to what degree" norms affect human behavior in the play of games. The purpose of this paper is to apply a variation of the Bicchieri norms analysis to generate a model of norms-based play of the traditional deterrence game (Zagare and Kilgour, Int Stud Q 37: 1-27, 1993; Morrow, Game theory for political scientists, (...)
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  3. Raymond Dacey, Piotr Zielonka, Tadeusz Tyszka & Przemysław Sawicki (2008). Perception of Randomness and Predicting Uncertain Events. Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1):83-110.
    Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy ; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run (...)
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  4. Przemysław Sawicki, Raymond Dacey, Piotr Zielonka & Tadeusz Tyszka (2008). Perception of Randomness and Predicting Uncertain Events. Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1):83-110.
    Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy ; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run (...)
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  5. Tadeusz Tyszka, Piotr Zielonka, Raymond Dacey & Przemys (2008). Perception of Randomness and Predicting Uncertain Events. Thinking and Reasoning 14 (1):83 – 110.
    Using randomly generated sequences of binary events we asked participants to make predictions about the next event. It turned out that while predicting uncertain events, people do not behave unsystematically. Our research identifies four types of relatively consistent strategies for predicting uncertain binary events: a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run majority events, hereafter called the long-run momentum strategy ; a strategy immune to short-run sequential dependencies consisting of the persistent prediction of long-run (...)
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  6. Raymond Dacey (2004). Interrogative Logic and the Economic Theory of Information. In D. Kolak & J. Symons (eds.), Quantifiers, Questions and Quantum Physics. Springer. 61--74.
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  7. Raymond Dacey (2003). Inferential Traps in an Escalation Process. In A. Rojszczak, J. Cachro & G. Kurczewski (eds.), Philosophical Dimensions of Logic and Science. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 373--390.
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  8. Raymond Dacey (2003). Preface. Synthese 135 (2):165-169.
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  9. Raymond Dacey & Kevin P. Murrin (1997). Nineteenth Century Britain as a Subtle Commercial Hegemon. Synthese 113 (2):205-216.
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  10. Raymond Dacey (1996). Taking Chances: Essays on Rational Choice. Philosophical Books 37 (3):214-216.
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  11. Raymond Dacey (1994). Epistemic Honesty. In Dag Prawitz & Dag Westerståhl (eds.), Logic and Philosophy of Science in Uppsala. Kluwer. 333--343.
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  12. Raymond Dacey (1994). Formal Analysis in International-Relations. Synthese 100 (3):329-332.
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  13. Raymond Dacey (1994). Introduction. Synthese 100 (3):329-332.
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  14. Raymond Dacey (1994). Inducing Fair Trade Out of Hegemonic Trade. Synthese 100 (3):497 - 504.
    This paper provides a model of the transition from hegemonic trade to contemporary (or fair) trade. Hegemonic trade is an instance of the two player game called Bully (Poundstone 1992) and Called Bluff (Snyder and Diesing 1977); contemporary trade is an instance of Prisoner's Dilemma (Krugman and Obstfeld 1991). In this paper, I show that a nation under the thumb of a hegemon, called the conciliatory nation, can induce fair trade. Further, I show that to induce fair trade, the conciliatory (...)
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  15. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla & Raymond Dacey (1988). The Probability of War in Then-Crises Problem: Modeling New Alternatives to Wright's Solution. Synthese 76 (2):285 - 305.
    In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p) n , wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli''s St. Petersburg Paradox as an (...)
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  16. Raymond Dacey (1988). Formal Analysis in International Relations: A Special Issue. Synthese 76.
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  17. Raymond Dacey (1988). Guest Editor's Preface. Synthese 76 (2):183-184.
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  18. Raymond Dacey (1981). An Interrogative Account of the Dialectical Inquiring System Based Upon the Economic Theory of Information. Synthese 47 (1):43 - 55.
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  19. Raymond Dacey (1981). Detection, Inference and the Arms Race. Bowling Green Studies in Applied Philosophy 3:87-100.
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  20. Raymond Dacey (1979). The Role of Ambiguity in Manipulating Voter Behavior. Theory and Decision 10 (1-4):265-279.
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  21. Raymond Dacey (1978). A Theory of Conclusions. Philosophy of Science 45 (4):563-574.
    This paper presents a theory of conclusions based upon the suggestions of Tukey [21]. The logic offered here is based upon two rules of detachment that occur naturally in probabilistic inference, a traditional rule of acceptance, and a rule of rejection. The rules of detachment provide flexibility: the theory of conclusions can account for both statistical and deductive arguments. The rule of acceptance governs the acceptance of new conclusions, is a variant of the rule of high probability, and is a (...)
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  22. Raymond Dacey, Richard E. Simmons, David J. Curry & John W. Kennelly (1977). A Cognitivist Solution to Newcomb's Problem. American Philosophical Quarterly 14 (1):79 - 84.
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  23. Raymond Dacey (1975). The Role of Economic Theory in Supporting Counterfactual Arguments. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 35 (3):402-410.
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