Search results for 'Science Forecasting' (try it on Scholar)

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  1.  26
    David A. Bessler & Zijun Wang (2012). D-Separation, Forecasting, and Economic Science: A Conjecture. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 73 (2):295-314.
    The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic (...)
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  2. Michio Kaku (1997). Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century. Anchor Books.
    In a spellbinding narrative that skillfully weaves together cutting-edge research among today's foremost scientists, theoretical physicist Michio Kaku--author of the bestselling book Hyperspace --presents a bold, exhilarating adventure into the science of tomorrow. In Visions, Dr. Kaku examines in vivid detail how the three scientific revolutions that profoundly reshaped the twentieth century--the quantum, biogenetic, and computer revolutions--will transform the way we live in the twenty-first century. The fundamental elements of matter and life--the particles of the atom and the nucleus (...)
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  3.  20
    Peter Coles (2006). From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability. Oxford University Press.
    Cosmology has undergone a revolution in recent years. The exciting interplay between astronomy and fundamental physics has led to dramatic revelations, including the existence of the dark matter and the dark energy that appear to dominate our cosmos. But these discoveries only reveal themselves through small effects in noisy experimental data. Dealing with such observations requires the careful application of probability and statistics. But it is not only in the arcane world of fundamental physics that probability theory plays such an (...)
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  4. Werner Arber, N. Cabibbo & Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo (eds.) (2008). The Proceedings of the Plenary Session on Predictability in Science: Accuracy and Limitations: 3-6 November 2006. Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
     
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  5. George Steiner & Emílio Rui Vilar (eds.) (2008). Is Science Nearing its Limits? Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian.
     
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  6. Augusto Forti (ed.) (1984). Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW] Pergamon.
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  7. B. J. Mason, Peter Mathias & J. H. Westcott (eds.) (1986). Predictability in Science and Society: A Joint Symposium of the Royal Society and the British Academy Held on 20 and 21 March 1986. [REVIEW] Distributed by Scholium International.
     
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  8. Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
     
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  9.  47
    D. Napoletani, M. Panza & D. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, and (...)
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  10.  14
    D. C. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, and we label (...)
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  11. Nelson Goodman (1983). Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Harvard University Press.
    In his new foreword to this edition, Hilary Putnam forcefully rejects these nativist claims.
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  12.  22
    M. A. Gareev (1998). If War Comes Tomorrow?: The Contours of Future Armed Conflict. Frank Cass.
    Military affairs have been affected by major changes in the 19902. The bipolar world of two superpowers has gone. The Cold War and the global military confrontation that accompanied it have ended. A new military and political order has emerged, but the world has not become more stable, indeed, wars and armed conflict have become much more common. Forecasting the contours of future armed conflict is the primary object of this work. Focusing on the impact of new technologies, General (...)
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  13.  6
    J. B. Nation (ed.) (2003). Formal Descriptions of Developing Systems. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    A cutting-edge survey of formal methods directed specifically at dealing with the deep mathematical problems engendered by the study of developing systems, in particular dealing with developing phase spaces, changing components, structures and functionalities, and the problem of emergence. Several papers deal with the modelling of particular experimental situations in population biology, economics and plant and muscle developments in addition to purely theoretical approaches. Novel approaches include differential inclusions and viability theory, growth tensors, archetypal dynamics, ensembles with variable structures, and (...)
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  14.  72
    Eric C. Barnes (2008). The Paradox of Predictivism. Cambridge University Press.
    This account of predictivism has considerable consequences for the realist/anti-realist debate.
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  15. Michio Kaku (2012). 2100 Ke Ji da Wei Lai: Cong Xian Zai Dao 2100 Nian, Ke Ji Jiang Ru He Gai Bian Wo Men de Sheng Huo. Shi Bao Wen Hua Chu Ban Qi Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si.
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  16.  6
    Michael Specter (2009). Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives. Penguin Press.
    Vioxx and the fear of science -- Vaccines and the great denial -- The organic fetish -- The era of echinacea -- Race and the language of life -- Surfing the exponential.
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  17.  14
    Lauren N. Harkrider, Alexandra E. MacDougall, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Michael D. Mumford, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport (2014). Retracted Article: Improving Case-Based Ethics Training: How Modeling Behaviors and Forecasting Influence Effectiveness. Science and Engineering Ethics 20 (1):299-299.
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  18. Tʻae-chʻang Kim & James Allen Dator (eds.) (1999). Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for Future Generations. Praeger.
  19. Zengquan Zhu (2005). Guan Zhan Bi Ji: Yi Ge Zhongguo Jiang Jun Yan Zhong de Wei Lai Zhan Zheng. Chang Jiang Wen Yi Chu Ban She.
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  20.  43
    Brent Ranalli (2012). Climate Science, Character, and the "Hard-Won" Consensus. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 22 (2):183-210.
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  21.  10
    Robert Evans (2007). Social Networks and Private Spaces in Economic Forecasting. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  22. Carlo Maria Flumiani (1978). The Economic Philosophy of History & the Science of Maximal Prediction. American Classical College Press.
     
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  23. Neil F. Johnson (2009). Simply Complexity: A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory. Oneworld.
    What exactly is complexity science? Two's company, three is complexity ; Disorder rules, OK? ; Chaos and all that jazz ; Mob mentality ; Getting connected -- What can complexity science do for me? Forecasting financial markets ; Tackling traffic networks and climbing the corporate ladder ; Looking for Mr./Mrs. Right ; Coping with conflict : next-generation wars and global terrorism -- Catching a cold, avoiding super-flu and curing cancer ; The mother of all complexities : our (...)
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  24.  15
    Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith, Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist (...)
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  25.  11
    Carolyn R. Miller (1994). Opportunity, Opportunism, and Progress:Kairos in the Rhetoric of Technology. [REVIEW] Argumentation 8 (1):81-96.
    As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of (...)
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  26.  1
    Leon Wansleben (2014). Consistent Forecasting Vs. Anchoring of Market Stories: Two Cultures of Modeling and Model Use in a Bank. Science in Context 27 (4):605-630.
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  27.  3
    William Thomas & Lambert Williams (2009). The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part I: Industrial Dynamics and Management Pedagogy at MIT. Science in Context 22 (2):245.
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  28.  3
    Lambert Williams & William Thomas (2009). The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part II: Climate, Chaos, Computing Style, and the Contextual Plasticity of Error. Science in Context 22 (2):271.
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  29.  2
    Devon Stillwell (2013). Genetic Counseling in Historical Perspective: Understanding Our Hereditary Past and Forecasting Our Genomic Future. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):618-622.
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  30. Wei Huang, Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang, Yukun Bao & Lin Wang (2006). Computational Finance and Business Intelligence-Comparisons of the Different Frequencies of Input Data for Neural Networks in Foreign Exchange Rates Forecasting. In O. Stock & M. Schaerf (eds.), Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer-Verlag 517-524.
     
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  31. Jones Jeans (2008). Today and Tomorrow Volume 9 Science and Medicine: Eos or the Wider Aspects of Cosmogony Hermes, or the Future of Chemistry Sybilla, or the Revival of Prophecy Archimedes or the Future of Physics. Routledge.
    Eos or the Wider Aspects of Cosmogony J H Jeans Originally published in 1928 "A fascinating summary of his tremendous conclusions…" Times Literary Supplement "No book in the series surpasses Eos in brilliance and profundity…" Is this universe permanent or transitory? If transitory, is it near its end or just beginning? Is life common or rare? Where does life stand in relation t the stupendous mass of inert matter? These and other issues are lucidly dealt with in this book. (...)
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  32. William Meyer (2003). Scanning the Skies: A History of Tornado Forecasting. [REVIEW] Isis: A Journal of the History of Science 94:779-780.
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  33. Alexander Mourelatos (2005). The Ancients''Meteorology': Forecasting and Cosmic Natural History. Rhizai. A Journal for Ancient Philosophy and Science 2:279-291.
    A Critical Notice of Liba Taub, Ancient Meteorology, Routledge, London and New York, 2003.
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  34. Anthony J. Marcel & E. Bisiach (eds.) (1988). Consciousness in Contemporary Science. Oxford University Press.
    The significance of consciousness in modern science is discussed by leading authorities from a variety of disciplines. Presenting a wide-ranging survey of current thinking on this important topic, the contributors address such issues as the status of different aspects of consciousness; the criteria for using the concept of consciousness and identifying instances of it; the basis of consciousness in functional brain organization; the relationship between different levels of theoretical discourse; and the functions of consciousness.
     
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  35. Nancy Cartwright (1999). The Dappled World: A Study of the Boundaries of Science. Cambridge University Press.
    It is often supposed that the spectacular successes of our modern mathematical sciences support a lofty vision of a world completely ordered by one single elegant theory. In this book Nancy Cartwright argues to the contrary. When we draw our image of the world from the way modern science works - as empiricism teaches us we should - we end up with a world where some features are precisely ordered, others are given to rough regularity and still others behave (...)
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  36. Jerry A. Fodor (1998). Concepts: Where Cognitive Science Went Wrong. Oxford University Press.
    The renowned philosopher Jerry Fodor, a leading figure in the study of the mind for more than twenty years, presents a strikingly original theory on the basic constituents of thought. He suggests that the heart of cognitive science is its theory of concepts, and that cognitive scientists have gone badly wrong in many areas because their assumptions about concepts have been mistaken. Fodor argues compellingly for an atomistic theory of concepts, deals out witty and pugnacious demolitions of rival theories, (...)
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  37. Jerry A. Fodor (1981). Representations: Philosophical Essays on the Foundations of Cognitive Science. MIT Press.
  38. Ian Hacking (1983). Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge University Press.
    This is a lively and clearly written introduction to the philosophy of natural science, organized around the central theme of scientific realism. It has two parts. 'Representing' deals with the different philosophical accounts of scientific objectivity and the reality of scientific entities. The views of Kuhn, Feyerabend, Lakatos, Putnam, van Fraassen, and others, are all considered. 'Intervening' presents the first sustained treatment of experimental science for many years and uses it to give a new direction to debates about (...)
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  39.  82
    Philip Kitcher (1993). The Advancement of Science: Science Without Legend, Objectivity Without Illusions. Oxford University Press.
    During the last three decades, reflections on the growth of scientific knowledge have inspired historians, sociologists, and some philosophers to contend that scientific objectivity is a myth. In this book, Kitcher attempts to resurrect the notions of objectivity and progress in science by identifying both the limitations of idealized treatments of growth of knowledge and the overreactions to philosophical idealizations. Recognizing that science is done not by logically omniscient subjects working in isolation, but by people with a variety (...)
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  40.  59
    Bruno Latour (1987). Science in Action: How to Follow Scientists and Engineers Through Society. Harvard University Press.
    In this book Bruno Latour brings together these different approaches to provide a lively and challenging analysis of science, demonstrating how social context..
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  41. Stathis Psillos (1999). Scientific Realism: How Science Tracks Truth. Routledge.
    Scientific Realism is the optimistic view that modern science is on the right track: that the world really is the way our best scientific theories describe it to be. In his book, Stathis Psillos gives us a detailed and comprehensive study, which restores the intuitive plausibility of scientific realism. We see that throughout the twentieth century, scientific realism has been challenged by philosophical positions from all angles: from reductive empiricism, to instrumentalism and modern skeptical empiricism. Scientific Realism explains that (...)
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  42.  22
    Evelyn Fox Keller (1996). Reflections on Gender and Science. Yale University Press.
    "-Barbara Ehrenreich, Mother Jones "This book represents the expression of a particular feminist perspective made all the more compelling by Keller's evident commitment to and understanding of science.
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  43.  21
    Larry Laudan (1984). Science and Values: The Aims of Science and Their Role in Scientific Debate. University of California Press.
    Laudan constructs a fresh approach to a longtime problem for the philosopher of science: how to explain the simultaneous and widespread presence of both agreement and disagreement in science. Laudan critiques the logical empiricists and the post-positivists as he stresses the need for centrality and values and the interdependence of values, methods, and facts as prerequisites to solving the problems of consensus and dissent in science.
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  44. E. J. Lowe (2006). The Four-Category Ontology: A Metaphysical Foundation for Natural Science. Oxford University Press.
    E. J. <span class='Hi'>Lowe</span>, a prominent figure in contemporary metaphysics, sets out and defends his theory of what there is. His four-category ontology is a metaphysical system which recognizes four fundamental categories of beings: substantial and non-substantial particulars and substantial and non-substantial universals. <span class='Hi'>Lowe</span> argues that this system has an explanatory power which is unrivaled by more parsimonious theories and that this counts decisively in its favor. He shows that it provides a powerful explanatory framework for a unified account (...)
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  45.  34
    Michael Gibbons (ed.) (1994). The New Production of Knowledge: The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies. Sage Publications.
    As we approach the end of the twentieth century, the ways in which knowledge--scientific, social, and cultural--is produced are undergoing fundamental changes. In The New Production of Knowledge, a distinguished group of authors analyze these changes as marking the transition from established institutions, disciplines, practices, and policies to a new mode of knowledge production. Identifying such elements as reflexivity, transdisciplinarity, and heterogeneity within this new mode, the authors consider their impact and interplay with the role of (...) in social relations. While the knowledge produced by research and development in science and technology is accorded central focus, the authors also outline the changing dimensions of social scientific and humanities knowledge and the relations between the production of knowledge and its dissemination through education. Placing science policy and scientific knowledge within the broader context of contemporary society, this book will be essential reading for all those concerned with the changing nature of knowledge, with the social study of science, with educational systems, and with the correlation between research and development and social, economic, and technological development. "Thought-provoking in its identification of issues that are global in scope; for policy makers in higher education, government, or the commercial sector." --Choice "By their insightful identification of the recent social transformation of knowledge production, the authors have been able to assert new imperatives for policy institutions. The lessons of the book are deep." --Alexis Jacquemin, Universite Catholique de Louvain and Advisor, Foreign Studies Unit, European Commission "Should we celebrate the emergence of a 'post-academic' mode of postmodern knowledge production of the post-industrial society of the 21st Century? Or should we turn away from it with increasing fear and loathing as we also uncover its contradictions. A generation of enthusiasts and/or critics will be indebted to the team of authors for exposing so forcefully the intimate connections between all the cognitive, educational, organizational, and commercial changes that are together revolutionizing the sciences, the technologies, and the humanities. This book will surely spark off a vigorous and fruitful debate about the meaning and purpose of knowledge in our culture." --Professor John Ziman, (Wendy, Janey at Ltd. is going to provide affiliation. Contact if you don't hear from her.) "Jointly authored by a team of distinguished scholars spanning a number of disciplines, The New Production of Knowledge maps the changes in the mode of knowledge production and the global impact of such transformations. . . . The authors succeed . . . at sketching out, in very large strokes, the emerging trends in knowledge production and their implications for future society. The macro focus of the book is a welcome change from the micro obsession of most sociologists of science, who have pretty much deconstructed institutions and even scientific knowledge out of existence." --Contemporary Sociology "This book is a timely contribution to current discussion on the breakdown of and need to renegotiate the social contract between science and society that Vannevar Bush and likeminded architects of science policy constructed immediately after World War II. It goes far beyond the usual scattering of fragmentary insights into changing institutional landscapes, cognitive structures, or quality control mechanisms of present day science, and their linkages with society at large. Tapping a wide variety of sources, the authors provide a coherent picture of important new characteristics that, taken altogether, fundamentally challenge our traditional notions of what academic research is all about. This well-founded analysis of the social redistribution of knowledge and its associated power patterns helps articulate what otherwise tends to remain an--albeit widespread--intuition. Unless they adapt to the new situation, universities in the future will find the centers of gravity of knowledge production moving even further beyond their ken. Knowledge of the social and cognitive dynamics of science in research is much needed as a basis of science and technology policymaking. The New Production of Knowledge does a lot to fill this gap. Another unique feature is its discussion of the humanities, which are usually left out in works coming out of the social studies of science." --Aant Elzinga, University od Goteborg. (shrink)
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  46.  50
    Philip Kitcher (2001). Science, Truth, and Democracy. Oxford University Press.
    Striving to boldly redirect the philosophy of science, this book by renowned philosopher Philip Kitcher examines the heated debate surrounding the role of science in shaping our lives. Kitcher explores the sharp divide between those who believe that the pursuit of scientific knowledge is always valuable and necessary--the purists--and those who believe that it invariably serves the interests of people in positions of power. In a daring turn, he rejects both perspectives, working out a more realistic image of (...)
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  47. Maya J. Goldenberg (forthcoming). Public Misunderstanding of Science? Reframing the Problem of Vaccine Hesitancy. Perspectives on Science:552-581.
    Public resistance towards scientific claims regarding vaccine safety is widely thought to stem from public misunderstanding (or ignorance) of science. Repeated failures to alleviate this ignorance make the problem of vaccine hesitancy seem intractable. I challenge this presumption of knowledge deficit and reinterpret vaccine hesitancy to be a problem of public mistrust of scientific experts and institutions. This finding invites new corrective measures: self-scrutiny by our scientific and governmental bodies regarding their own credibility as well as investment in dialogical (...)
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  48. Torsten Wilholt (2013). Epistemic Trust in Science. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (2):233-253.
    Epistemic trust is crucial for science. This article aims to identify the kinds of assumptions that are involved in epistemic trust as it is required for the successful operation of science as a collective epistemic enterprise. The relevant kind of reliance should involve working from the assumption that the epistemic endeavors of others are appropriately geared towards the truth, but the exact content of this assumption is more difficult to analyze than it might appear. The root of the (...)
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  49.  62
    Evan Thompson (1994). Colour Vision: A Study in Cognitive Science and Philosophy of Science. Routledge.
    Colour fascinates all of us, and scientists and philosophers have sought to understand the true nature of colour vision for many years. In recent times, investigations into colour vision have been one of the main success stories of cognitive science, for each discipline within the field - neuroscience, psychology, linguistics, computer science and artificial intelligence, and philosophy - has contributed significantly to our understanding of colour. Evan Thompson's book is a major contribution to this interdisciplinary project. Colour Vision (...)
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  50. Robert King Merton (1973). The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations. University of Chicago Press.
     
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