Search results for 'Science Forecasting' (try it on Scholar)

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  1. David A. Bessler & Zijun Wang (2012). D-Separation, Forecasting, and Economic Science: A Conjecture. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 73 (2):295-314.score: 88.0
    The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic (...)
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  2. Peter Coles (2006). From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability. Oxford University Press.score: 84.0
    Cosmology has undergone a revolution in recent years. The exciting interplay between astronomy and fundamental physics has led to dramatic revelations, including the existence of the dark matter and the dark energy that appear to dominate our cosmos. But these discoveries only reveal themselves through small effects in noisy experimental data. Dealing with such observations requires the careful application of probability and statistics. But it is not only in the arcane world of fundamental physics that probability theory plays such an (...)
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  3. Michio Kaku (1997). Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century. Anchor Books.score: 84.0
    In a spellbinding narrative that skillfully weaves together cutting-edge research among today's foremost scientists, theoretical physicist Michio Kaku--author of the bestselling book Hyperspace --presents a bold, exhilarating adventure into the science of tomorrow. In Visions, Dr. Kaku examines in vivid detail how the three scientific revolutions that profoundly reshaped the twentieth century--the quantum, biogenetic, and computer revolutions--will transform the way we live in the twenty-first century. The fundamental elements of matter and life--the particles of the atom and the nucleus (...)
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  4. Werner Arber, N. Cabibbo & Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo (eds.) (2008). The Proceedings of the Plenary Session on Predictability in Science: Accuracy and Limitations: 3-6 November 2006. Pontifical Academy of Sciences.score: 78.0
     
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  5. George Steiner & Emílio Rui Vilar (eds.) (2008). Is Science Nearing its Limits? Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian.score: 78.0
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  6. M. A. Gareev (1998). If War Comes Tomorrow?: The Contours of Future Armed Conflict. Frank Cass.score: 66.0
    Military affairs have been affected by major changes in the 19902. The bipolar world of two superpowers has gone. The Cold War and the global military confrontation that accompanied it have ended. A new military and political order has emerged, but the world has not become more stable, indeed, wars and armed conflict have become much more common. Forecasting the contours of future armed conflict is the primary object of this work. Focusing on the impact of new technologies, General (...)
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  7. J. B. Nation (ed.) (2003). Formal Descriptions of Developing Systems. Kluwer Academic Publishers.score: 66.0
    A cutting-edge survey of formal methods directed specifically at dealing with the deep mathematical problems engendered by the study of developing systems, in particular dealing with developing phase spaces, changing components, structures and functionalities, and the problem of emergence. Several papers deal with the modelling of particular experimental situations in population biology, economics and plant and muscle developments in addition to purely theoretical approaches. Novel approaches include differential inclusions and viability theory, growth tensors, archetypal dynamics, ensembles with variable structures, and (...)
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  8. Augusto Forti (ed.) (1984). Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW] Pergamon.score: 66.0
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  9. B. J. Mason, Peter Mathias & J. H. Westcott (eds.) (1986). Predictability in Science and Society: A Joint Symposium of the Royal Society and the British Academy Held on 20 and 21 March 1986. [REVIEW] Distributed by Scholium International.score: 66.0
     
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  10. Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.score: 66.0
     
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  11. Eric C. Barnes (2008). The Paradox of Predictivism. Cambridge University Press.score: 60.0
    This account of predictivism has considerable consequences for the realist/anti-realist debate.
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  12. D. Napoletani, M. Panza & D. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.score: 60.0
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, and we label (...)
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  13. D. C. Struppa (2011). Agnostic Science. Towards a Philosophy of Data Analysis. Foundations of Science 16 (1):1-20.score: 60.0
    In this paper we will offer a few examples to illustrate the orientation of contemporary research in data analysis and we will investigate the corresponding role of mathematics. We argue that the modus operandi of data analysis is implicitly based on the belief that if we have collected enough and sufficiently diverse data, we will be able to answer most relevant questions concerning the phenomenon itself. This is a methodological paradigm strongly related, but not limited to, biology, and we label (...)
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  14. Michio Kaku (2012). 2100 Ke Ji da Wei Lai: Cong Xian Zai Dao 2100 Nian, Ke Ji Jiang Ru He Gai Bian Wo Men de Sheng Huo. Shi Bao Wen Hua Chu Ban Qi Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si.score: 60.0
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  15. Nelson Goodman (1983). Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Harvard University Press.score: 54.0
    In his new foreword to this edition, Hilary Putnam forcefully rejects these nativist claims.
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  16. Michael Specter (2009). Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives. Penguin Press.score: 54.0
    Vioxx and the fear of science -- Vaccines and the great denial -- The organic fetish -- The era of echinacea -- Race and the language of life -- Surfing the exponential.
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  17. Tʻae-chʻang Kim & James Allen Dator (eds.) (1999). Co-Creating a Public Philosophy for Future Generations. Praeger.score: 48.0
  18. Zengquan Zhu (2005). Guan Zhan Bi Ji: Yi Ge Zhongguo Jiang Jun Yan Zhong de Wei Lai Zhan Zheng. Chang Jiang Wen Yi Chu Ban She.score: 48.0
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  19. Lauren N. Harkrider, Alexandra E. MacDougall, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Michael D. Mumford, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport (2014). Retracted Article: Improving Case-Based Ethics Training: How Modeling Behaviors and Forecasting Influence Effectiveness. Science and Engineering Ethics 20 (1):299-299.score: 36.0
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  20. Neil F. Johnson (2009). Simply Complexity: A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory. Oneworld.score: 36.0
    What exactly is complexity science? Two's company, three is complexity ; Disorder rules, OK? ; Chaos and all that jazz ; Mob mentality ; Getting connected -- What can complexity science do for me? Forecasting financial markets ; Tackling traffic networks and climbing the corporate ladder ; Looking for Mr./Mrs. Right ; Coping with conflict : next-generation wars and global terrorism -- Catching a cold, avoiding super-flu and curing cancer ; The mother of all complexities : our (...)
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  21. Carolyn R. Miller (1994). Opportunity, Opportunism, and Progress:Kairos in the Rhetoric of Technology. [REVIEW] Argumentation 8 (1):81-96.score: 36.0
    As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of (...)
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  22. Brent Ranalli (2012). Climate Science, Character, and the "Hard-Won" Consensus. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal 22 (2):183-210.score: 30.0
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  23. Carlo Maria Flumiani (1978). The Economic Philosophy of History & the Science of Maximal Prediction. American Classical College Press.score: 30.0
     
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  24. Kristine C. Harper (2006). Meteorology's Struggle for Professional Recognition in the USA (1900–1950). Annals of Science 63 (2):179-199.score: 30.0
    Summary Meteorology, a scientific discipline almost exclusively associated with weather forecasting in the first half of the twentieth century in the USA, was viewed with disdain by more mathematically based scientific communities. A descriptive science lacking in physical and mathematical rigor, meteorology was typically without an academic home in US colleges and universities. This stood in sharp contrast to the meteorological communities across the Atlantic which were supported by dedicated geophysical institutes. Four factors kept US meteorologists, unlike their (...)
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  25. Dana Cook Grossman & Heinz Valtin (eds.) (1999). Great Issues for Medicine in the Twenty-First Century: Ethical and Social Issues Arising Out of Advances in the Biomedical Sciences. New York Academy of Sciences.score: 26.0
     
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  26. Barbara L. Neuby (ed.) (1998). Relevancy of the Social Sciences in the Next Millennium. The State University of West Georgia.score: 26.0
     
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  27. Benoît Godin (2010). Innovation Without the Word: William F. Ogburn's Contribution to the Study of Technological Innovation. [REVIEW] Minerva 48 (3):277-307.score: 24.0
    The history of innovation as a category is dominated by economists and by the contribution of J. A. Schumpeter. This paper documents the contribution of a neglected but influential author, the American sociologist William F. Ogburn. Over a period of more than 30 years, Ogburn developed pioneering ideas on three dimensions of technological innovation: origins, diffusion, and effects. He also developed the first conceptual framework for innovation studies—based on the concept of cultural lags—which led to studying and forecasting the (...)
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  28. Andy Miah, Genetic Modification (Gm) in Sport: Legal Implications.score: 24.0
    Despite an emerging body of literature, an analysis of the legal issues arising from science and technology in sport remains largely unexplored.1 Perhaps one of the most common areas for the synthesis of these issues is found in regard to the use of drugs and other doping methods. However, there remains no theorising about legal issues arising from the possibility of using genetic technologies in sport. Nevertheless, an awareness of the imminent use of genetic technologies by athletes is beginning (...)
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  29. Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith, Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.score: 24.0
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist (...)
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  30. Cory Doctorow, By His Things Will You Know Him.score: 24.0
    In 2013 at Institute for the Future, the non-profit forecasting thinktank where I'm a researcher, we explored what we're calling the Coming Age of Networked Matter. Over the next few decades, a confluence of breakthroughs in physics, engineering, biology, computation, and complexity science will give us new lenses to observe the wondrous interconnections surrounding us and within us. In the future we’re moving toward, we won’t only observe complex systems, we’ll also modify and even create them in vivo (...)
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  31. Robert Evans (2007). Social Networks and Private Spaces in Economic Forecasting. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.score: 24.0
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  32. Joachim Schummer, Reading Nano: The Public Interest in Nanotechnology as Reflected in Purchase Patterns of Books.score: 24.0
    There is a rapidly growing public interest in nanotechnology such that people increasingly buy various books to inform themselves about nanotechnology. This paper tries to measure the public interest focus on nanotechnology and its relation to the public interest in other fields of knowledge by applying a new method. I combine formal network analysis of co-purchase book data with traditional content analysis. The method is successful in identifying the books that the public reads to be informed about nanotechnology, in distinguishing (...)
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  33. Michael Kohlhase, Compensating the Computational Bias of Spreadsheets with MKM Techniques.score: 24.0
    Spreadsheets are mathematical documents that are heavily employed in administration, financial forecasting, education, and science because of their intuitive, flexible, and direct approach to computation. In this paper we show that spreadsheets are interesting applications for MKM techniques which can alleviate usability and maintenance problems as spreadsheet-based applications grow evermore complex and longlived. We present the software and information architecture of a semantic enhancement of MS Excel spreadsheets that aims at compensating the computational bias in spreadsheets.
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  34. Michael Kohlhase, Compensating the Semantic Bias of Spreadsheets.score: 24.0
    Spreadsheets are heavily employed in administration, financial forecasting, education, and science because of their intuitive, flexible, and direct approach to computation. They represent examples for “active documents” which are considered very worthwhile in the field of Knowledge Management. But these activity traits also lead to usability and maintenance problems, as spreadsheet-based applications grow evermore complex and longlived. We argue that these difficulties come from a fundamental bias of spreadsheets towards computational aspects of the conceptual models underlying the applications, (...)
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  35. David Loye (1987). The Human Mind and the Image of the Future. World Futures 23 (1):67-78.score: 24.0
    This paper presented during the Physis: Inhabiting the Earth conference, Florence, Italy, October 28?31,1986 examines how new brain research, by radically expanding our knowledge of the physiological foundation for empirical social science, makes possible a new understanding of the nature of higher mind and the place of the human being in evolution. It reports research supporting a model of right, left and frontal brain interaction in forecasting. It also describes development of measures and methods indicating a primarily frontal (...)
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  36. Devon Stillwell (2013). Genetic Counseling in Historical Perspective: Understanding Our Hereditary Past and Forecasting Our Genomic Future. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):618-622.score: 24.0
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  37. Newton C. A. da Costa & FranciscoAntonio Doria (1994). Gödel Incompleteness in Analysis, with an Application to the Forecasting Problem in the Social Sciences. Philosophia Naturalis 31 (1):1-24.score: 24.0
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  38. Wei Huang, Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang, Yukun Bao & Lin Wang (2006). Computational Finance and Business Intelligence-Comparisons of the Different Frequencies of Input Data for Neural Networks in Foreign Exchange Rates Forecasting. In O. Stock & M. Schaerf (eds.), Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer-Verlag. 517-524.score: 24.0
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  39. Michael Kohlhase, What You Understand is What You Get: Assessment in Spreadsheets.score: 24.0
    Spreadsheets are heavily employed in administration, financial forecasting, education, and science because of their intuitive, flexible, and direct approach to computation. In previous work we have studied how an explicit representation of the background knowledge associated with the spreadsheet can be exploited to alleviate usability problems with spreadsheet-based applications. The SACHS system implements this approach to provide a semantic help system for DCS, an Excelbased financial controlling system.
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  40. Alexander Mourelatos (2005). The Ancients''Meteorology': Forecasting and Cosmic Natural History. Rhizai. A Journal for Ancient Philosophy and Science 2:279-291.score: 24.0
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  41. William Thomas & Lambert Williams (2009). The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part I: Industrial Dynamics and Management Pedagogy at MIT. Science in Context 22 (2):245.score: 24.0
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  42. Lambert Williams & William Thomas (2009). The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part II: Climate, Chaos, Computing Style, and the Contextual Plasticity of Error. Science in Context 22 (2):271.score: 24.0
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  43. Massimo Pigliucci (2013). When Science Studies Religion: Six Philosophy Lessons for Science Classes. Science and Education 22 (1):49-67.score: 21.0
    It is an unfortunate fact of academic life that there is a sharp divide between science and philosophy, with scientists often being openly dismissive of philosophy, and philosophers being equally contemptuous of the naivete ́ of scientists when it comes to the philosophical underpinnings of their own discipline. In this paper I explore the possibility of reducing the distance between the two sides by introducing science students to some interesting philosophical aspects of research in evolutionary biology, using biological (...)
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  44. Massimo Pigliucci & Maarten Boudry (2011). Why Machine-Information Metaphors Are Bad for Science and Science Education. Science and Education 20 (453):471.score: 21.0
    Genes are often described by biologists using metaphors derived from computa- tional science: they are thought of as carriers of information, as being the equivalent of ‘‘blueprints’’ for the construction of organisms. Likewise, cells are often characterized as ‘‘factories’’ and organisms themselves become analogous to machines. Accordingly, when the human genome project was initially announced, the promise was that we would soon know how a human being is made, just as we know how to make airplanes and buildings. Impor- (...)
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  45. Nicholas Maxwell (1997). Must Science Make Cosmological Assumptions If It is to Be Rational?,. In T. Kelly (ed.), The Philosophy of Science: Proceedings of the Irish Philosophical Society Spring Conference. Irish Philosophical Society.score: 21.0
    Cosmological speculation about the ultimate nature of the universe, being necessary for science to be possible at all, must be regarded as a part of scientific knowledge itself, however epistemologically unsound it may be in other respects. The best such speculation available is that the universe is comprehensible in some way or other and, more specifically, in the light of the immense apparent success of modern natural science, that it is physically comprehensible. But both these speculations may be (...)
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  46. Sharon Crasnow (2008). Feminist Philosophy of Science: 'Standpoint' and Knowledge. [REVIEW] Science and Education 17 (10):1089-1110.score: 21.0
    Feminist philosophy of science has been criticized on several counts. On the one hand, it is claimed that it results in relativism of the worst sort since the political commitment to feminism is prima facie incompatible with scientific objectivity. On the other hand, when critics acknowledge that there may be some value in work that feminists have done, they comment that there is nothing particularly feminist about their accounts. I argue that both criticisms can be addressed through a better (...)
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  47. Thomas Mormann (2013). Topology as an Issue for History of Philosophy of Science. In Hanne Andersen, Dennis Dieks, Wenceslao J. Gonzalez, Thomas Uebel & Gregory Wheeler (eds.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Springer. 423--434.score: 21.0
    Since antiquity well into the beginnings of the 20th century geometry was a central topic for philosophy. Since then, however, most philosophers of science, if they took notice of topology at all, considered it as an abstruse subdiscipline of mathematics lacking philosophical interest. Here it is argued that this neglect of topology by philosophy may be conceived of as the sign of a conceptual sea-change in philosophy of science that expelled geometry, and, more generally, mathematics, from the central (...)
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  48. Ave Mets & Piret Kuusk (2009). The Constructive Realist Account of Science and its Application to Ilya Prigogine's Conception of Laws of Nature. Foundations of Science 14 (3):239-248.score: 21.0
    Sciences are often regarded as providing the best, or, ideally, exact, knowledge of the world, especially in providing laws of nature. Ilya Prigogine, who was awarded the Nobel Prize for his theory of non-equilibrium chemical processes—this being also an important attempt to bridge the gap between exact and non-exact sciences [mentioned in the Presentation Speech by Professor Stig Claesson (nobelprize.org, The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1977)]—has had this ideal in mind when trying to formulate a new kind of science. (...)
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  49. Babette Babich (2006). Gay Science: Science and Wissenschaft, Leidenschaft and Music. In Keith Ansell-Pearson (ed.), Gay Science: Science and Wissenschaft, Leidenschaft and Music. Blackwell.score: 21.0
    On Nietzsche, science, the oral tradition -- or the troubadours and ancient Greek music drama.
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  50. Nicholas Maxwell (2009). The Metaphysics of Science: An Account of Modern Science in Terms of Principles, Laws and Theories. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 23 (2):228 – 232.score: 21.0
    This is a review of Craig Dilworth's The Metaphysics of Science (Dordrecht, Springer, 2007). The book propounds an immensely important idea. Science makes metaphysical presuppositions. Unfortunately, Dilworth ignores work that has been done on this issue which takes the matter much further than he does.
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