The relationship between methods, statistics and models in the social sciences is discussed. New models generalizing commonly used linear models to deal with qualitative and ordinal data are introduced; their basic similarity to linear models is pointed out. Rate models and stochastic linear differential equations to model social processes in continuous time are mentioned. The implications of weak substantial theory and the correct use of statistical significance tests for any kind of model are demonstrated.

Eighteenth-century German Statistik was an empirical and descriptive discipline of "the land and the people." As the study of material conditions it provided governments with information to assess the strength of their own state in comparison with others. Its adherents' claim that Statistik was a useful science, however, was severely tempered by their empirical method and holistic view of society. As a "science of the present" it was seriously challenged by the recognition of the essential historicity of its (...) subject matter. Both circumstances explain the decline of Statistik from which mathematical statistics, political economy, and political historiography profited. (shrink)

The present paper focuses on the work of Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874), the Belgian author of the Social Physics who worked in the tradition of the French mathématique sociale, and of Otto Neurath (1882-1945), the Vienna Circle’s member who supported a “sociology within physicalism”. They shared some important philosophical and methodological positions: an empiricist approach to the social sciences, a unitary conception of the natural and the social sciences, and the appreciation of statistics as a tool for investigating and also reforming (...) society. My paper analyses these elements of continuity between the two authors, in order to highlight how an empirical-quantitative approach to society was (at least partially) inherited by Austrian sociology from an earlier French tradition. On the contrary, most German statisticians refused such an approach at the time in which social sciences were developing in Germany, and they strongly believed in an in-principle difference between natural and social sciences. From a systematic point of view, my paper devotes a special attention to the relationship between the application of statistics (praxis) and a unitary conception of the sciences (theory). Both in Quetelet’s and in Neurath’s work these two aspects support each other. Nevertheless Neurath can be said to have turned Quetelet’s reasoning upside-down: While Quetelet appealed to statistics to claim that the social sciences can reach the same objectivity and determinacy as the natural ones, Neurath referred to statistics to argue that the natural sciences – exactly like the social ones – are characterized by a certain degree of indeterminacy and underdetermination. (shrink)

Der soziotechnische Wandel bringt neue Phänomene des Zufalls hervor, die sich den üblichen Strategien des Umgangs mit Risiken und Unsicherheit entziehen. Diese Akzidenzphänomene sind prinzipiell unvorhersehbar und in ihrer komplexen Effektgesamtheit jenseits von Kalkulation und Antizipation. Eine allgemeine Verzukünftigung unseres Weltbezuges mit spezifischen weitreichenden Problemen ist die Folge und lässt klassische Agenturen des Risikomanagements und der Unsicherheitsbewältigung an ihre Leistungsgrenzen stoßen. Bruno Gransche zeigt, dass Philosophie und Zukunftsforschung gemeinsam großes Potenzial aufweisen, hier zu helfen.

The great promises that "Statistik" yielded in the 19th century in Belgium, did not materialise. At least as far as political statistics are concerned. In the second half of the 20th century the output was rather limited and thus very incomplete, not very professionally conceived and elaborated, disorderly provided, strongly related to an outrunned institutional approach and thus quite conservative in its orientation, veiled in inaccurate categories with the static view rather dominant. Therefore, starting from a global approach of (...) the 3 P's, a rebuilding is necessary. This should provide for an inventory of existing statistical data and -above all -a masterplan to achieve a straightforward view on the 3 P's in Belgium: polity, politics and policy. A polyarchy has the right and the need to in depth information that is as complete as feasible. Statistics are very handy tools to provide this information to both policymakers and citizens. (shrink)

It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by applying the concept of empirical (...) content to statistical hypotheses. It is shown that empirical content is a substitute for ‘power’ as defined by Neyman and Pearson. Since the empirical content of a hypothesis is independent of alternative hypotheses, the proposed theory of statistical testing allows for tests of isolated hypotheses. (shrink)

Úspěšná kniha MUDr. Františka Koukolíka Mocenská posedlost se vrací na knižní trh v novém vydání, od základu přepracovaná a doplněná bohatou věcnou dokumentací. Fenomén moci od prvního vydání knihy (Karolinum 2011) zdá se posílil a více prorostl mnoha, prakticky všemi oblastmi života populace na planetě Zemi. Nové zpracování problému se opírá o čísla statistik, o interpretaci každodenních událostí ve světě, o výsledky anket a psychologických experimentů, nepomíjí ani autorovu doménu – neurovědu jako zdroj poznání nejniternějších lidských podnětů i úchylek. (...) Metodou pohledu je ovšem vždy kritický rozum. Skrze něj a v širokých souvislostech podává autor obraz světa, který je stále více varující. (shrink)

The paper considers the status of mathematics and mathematicians in German industrial labs from the 1920s. As an example, we take the use of statistical methods in the electrical engineering company Osram in Berlin. In the United States, the former employee and member of a special mathematical research department of the Bell Telephone Laboratories, Walter Andrew Shewhart (1891–1967), is regarded as the father of statistical quality control. Although the first textbook on applications of mathematical statistics to problems of mass production (...) was published in Germany in 1927, Germany was nevertheless generally considered as conservative in using statistical methods until 1945. In the past we have known little about whether and how these methods were actually applied in German industry before 1945. The present analysis is based on laboratory reports and other sources. It shows that in this field of research there was a close cooperation between industry and university, which was cut off in the mid 1930s due to the Nazi regime. Furthermore, we discovered that female researchers – such as Iris Runge (1888–1966) in the Osram company – could as individuals play a decisive role as mathematical consultants. The position of Runge will be described and compared with the position of mathematical researchers in other industrial labs. am Beispiel früher Anwendung von mathematischer Statistik in der Osram G.m.b.H.Hans Wußing zum 80. Geburtstag gewidmet. (shrink)

Entscheidungen verweisen in einem begrifflichen Sinne auf Gründe. Entscheidungssysteme bieten eine probabilistische Verlässlichkeit als Rechtfertigung von Empfehlungen an. Doch nicht für alle Situationen mögen Verlässlichkeitsgründe auch angemessene Gründe sein. Damit eröffnet sich die Idee, die Güte von Gründen von ihrer Angemessenheit zu unterscheiden. Der Aufsatz betrachtet an einem Beispiel, einem KI-Lügendetektor, die Frage, ob eine (zumindest aktuell nicht gegebene) hohe Verlässlichkeit den Einsatz rechtfertigen kann. Gleicht er nicht einem Richter, der anhand einer Statistik Urteile fällen würde?

The article starts from an examination of the authorship of the ‘Geleitwort’, the programmatic statement which appeared in the Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft when it came under new editors in 1904. Recently scholars have begun to view it as an important text by Max Weber recovered from obscurity, but this is a mistake. Examination of major contemporary works by Weber and Werner Sombart – the obvious co-author – as well as the first public disclosure of an entirely new MS. by Weber, (...) show that in all probability the text was drafted by Sombart and then revised fairly lightly by Weber. This story of a combined, if unequal, authorship leads into two broader seams of intellectual history: the relationship between Weber and Sombart, and the history of the Archiv as a journal. An unusual starting point thus casts fresh and unexpected light on some of the most central figures and episodes in German social science at the beginning of the 20th century, not least Weber's seminal essay on “Objectivity” in social science. ☆ This paper relies on intellectual interchange and the generosity of colleagues to a quite unusual degree. I note three particular debts: to Prof. Friedrich Lenger, for a copy of Sombart's important 1897 essay on ‘Social Scientific Journals’; to Prof. Guenther Roth for letter transcripts bearing on the Archiv from and to Edgar Jaffé, and for showing me in draft his ground-breaking work ‘Edgar Jaffé and Else von Richthofen: a biographical essay based on the family archive of Christopher Jeffrey’ [hereafter ‘Biographical Essay]; and to Dr. Edith Hanke and Prof. Rainer Lepsius (on behalf of the Max Weber Gesamtausgabe). Dr. Hanke brought to my notice the existence of the MS. which I have called Weber's draft Editorial Notice (see §.IV below), and Prof. Lepsius then gave permission for me to see and to cite from this document. — Some abbreviations: AfSS for Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik; AfGS for Archiv für Soziale Gesetzgebung und Statistik; Lebensbild for Marianne Weber, Max Weber. Ein Lebensbild [1926] (Tübingen, 1989); MWG for Max Weber Gesamtausgabe ed. Horst Baier et al. (Tübingen, 1984-). Letters by Weber within the MWG are cited as Briefe; ‘Nachlaß Max Weber’ for unpublished letters in the Geheimes Staatsarchiv Preußischer Kulturbesitz, VI. HA Nachlaß Max Weber. (shrink)

RésuméĽutilisation de tests statistiques sans en connaître les conditions de validité peut être fort discutable. Appliqués à des résultats déjà obtenus, il peuvent conduire à des conclusions erronées. Ľemploi de la statistique, au niveau de la planification de ľexpérience déjà, permet ?on;augmenter très généralement ?on;une façon sensible la précision des résultats.It may be debatable to use statistical tests without knowing the conditions under which they are valid. If tests are applied to result which have already been obtained, the conclusion drawn (...) may be incorrect. The use of statistics at the level of experimental design can often considerably improve the precision of the results.ZusammenfassungDie Verwendung statistischer Tests, ohne deren Gültigkeitsbedingungen zu kennen, kann sehr fraglich sein. Auf schon vorhandene Ergebnisse angewandt, können sie zu falschen Schlüssen führen. Eine Planung des Versuchsprogramms mit Hilfe der Statistik kann oft die Genauigkeit der Resultate merklich verbessern. (shrink)

What’s in a Price? History of Economic Ideologies vs. History of Economic Ideas. This paper suggests applying the approach of a historical epistemology to the field of economics. We observe that an assumedly fundamental opposition between the market and the state dominates popular images of the history of economic ideas. Two conflicting ideologies are roughly assigned to the two opposing sides in the Cold War. To this historical narrative the paper opposes a different view. The argument is that when taking (...) the technical practices of economic knowledge production in the twentieth century into view, similarities abound across ideological ruptures. The chief characteristic change in the recent history of economics was a radical turn towards quantification, measurement, and mathematical modelling. A historical epistemology of economics could show how deeply both, admirers of the state and of the market, share a history. The paper concludes that to‐date critique of political economy should also take into consideration a critical perspective towards the unfolding of this measurement revolution in the social sciences. (shrink)

Weltweit leben auch heute noch – je nach Messung – hunderte Millionen Kinder in Armut, und Kinderarmut ist sowohl in reichen wie auch armen Ländern zu finden. Gemäß der Zahlen der Weltbank mussten 2013 fast 400 Millionen Kinder weltweit mit weniger als 1,90$ am Tag auskommen, und die offizielle Statistik für die EU spricht für das Jahr 2016 von fast 25 Millionen Kindern, die in Europa in armutsgefährdeten Haushalten leben. Diese Zahlen zeigen ein ethisches Problem an, sie geben aber (...) noch keine Auskunft darüber, welche Fragen Kinderarmut für die Philosophie und insbesondere eine Philosophie der Kindheit aufwirft. Obwohl Armut schon seit längerem innerhalb der Philosophie thematisiert wird, gibt es erst sehr wenige Arbeiten, die sich explizit mit Kinderarmut auseinandersetzen. (shrink)

Weltweit leben auch heute noch – je nach Messung – hunderte Millionen Kinder in Armut, und Kinderarmut ist sowohl in reichen wie auch armen Ländern zu finden. Gemäß der Zahlen der Weltbank mussten 2013 fast 400 Millionen Kinder weltweit mit weniger als 1,90 $ am Tag auskommen, und die offizielle Statistik für die EU spricht für das Jahr 2016 von fast 25 Millionen Kindern, die in Europa in armutsgefährdeten Haushalten leben.

Das Bild des vormodernen Staates wird in der Regel mit der Repräsentation des Königskörpers in Verbindung gebracht. Demgegenüber legt die Autorin ihr Augenmerk auf Visualisierungen staatlicher Zusammenhänge in Form der Kunstkammer, des Setzkastens, der Staatstafel und der Tabelle, die das Bild des Staates zu konstruieren suchten. Mit Blick auf die Handhabung von gesammelten Objekten und Informationen beschreibt sie Ordnungsverfahren und Argumentationsstrategien aus Museologie und Statistik. Im Zentrum steht dabei die Frage nach dem spezifisch politischen Potential frühneuzeitlicher Sammlungspraktiken. Inwiefern bilden (...) diese gesellschaftspolitische Verhältnisse nicht nur ab, sondern produzieren sie selbst mit? Welche Argumentationstopoi tauchen in den museologischen und staatsbeschreibenden Texten wiederholt auf? Wie wurden vor dem Hintergrund von Ordnungsbestrebungen Daten und Objekte in funktionale Kontexte gesetzt? (shrink)

Dieser Bericht enthält zunächst eine Skizze der Entwicklung der Wissenschaftsgeschichtsschreibung in den USA und Canada. Sodann werden die Aktivitäten der History of Science Society of North America besonders vorgestellt. Schließlich betrachtet der Bericht besonders wichtige Publikationen im einzelnen. Im Anhang finden sich Übersichten über die jährlichen Versammlungen, eine vergleichende Statistik der Forschungsschwerpunkte der amerikanischen und internationalen Tätigkeit auf den einzelnen Gebieten sowie eine Liste der Forschungsstätten und der "Grading Programs".

Socioeconomic inequalities are functions not only of intrinsic differences between persons or groups, but also of the dynamics of their interactions. Inequalities can arise and become stabilized if there are advantages (such as generalized wealth including “human capital”) which are self-enhancing, whereas depletion of limiting resources is widely distributed. A recent theory of biological pattern formation has been generalized, adapted and applied to deal with this process. Applications include models for the non-Gaussian distribution of personal income and wealth, for overall (...) economic growth in relation to inequalities and for effects of uncoupling strategies between developing and developed countries. Note added after publication: The equations (14) for the model of the income distribution, with its characteristic non-Gaussian extension towards higher incomes (fig.4), are closely related to the Fokker-Planck equation that is widely applied in many fields of physics. (shrink)