Search results for 'Technological forecasting Methodology' (try it on Scholar)

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  1. Ota Sulc (1977). Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution. Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.score: 585.0
     
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  2. Michio Kaku (1997). Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century. Anchor Books.score: 174.0
    In a spellbinding narrative that skillfully weaves together cutting-edge research among today's foremost scientists, theoretical physicist Michio Kaku--author of the bestselling book Hyperspace --presents a bold, exhilarating adventure into the science of tomorrow. In Visions, Dr. Kaku examines in vivid detail how the three scientific revolutions that profoundly reshaped the twentieth century--the quantum, biogenetic, and computer revolutions--will transform the way we live in the twenty-first century. The fundamental elements of matter and life--the particles of the atom and the nucleus of (...)
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  3. Laura German, Jeremias Mowo & Margaret Kingamkono (2006). A Methodology for Tracking the “Fate” of Technological Interventions in Agriculture. Agriculture and Human Values 23 (3):353-369.score: 148.0
    The primary focus of agricultural research and extension in eastern Africa is technology generation and dissemination. Despite prior critiques of the shortcomings of this approach, the consequences of such activities continue to be measured through the number of technologies developed and introduced into the supply chain. At best, impact is assessed by the total numbers of adopters and by the household and system factors influencing adoption. While the diffusion research tradition has made substantive advances in recent decades, attention to what (...)
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  4. Tom Froese & Shaun Gallagher (2010). Phenomenology and Artificial Life: Toward a Technological Supplementation of Phenomenological Methodology. Husserl Studies 26 (2):83-106.score: 120.0
    The invention of the computer has revolutionized science. With respect to finding the essential structures of life, for example, it has enabled scientists not only to investigate empirical examples, but also to create and study novel hypothetical variations by means of simulation: ‘life as it could be’. We argue that this kind of research in the field of artificial life, namely the specification, implementation and evaluation of artificial systems, is akin to Husserl’s method of free imaginative variation as applied to (...)
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  5. Carolyn R. Miller (1994). Opportunity, Opportunism, and Progress:Kairos in the Rhetoric of Technology. [REVIEW] Argumentation 8 (1):81-96.score: 94.0
    As the principle of timing or opportunity,kairos serves both as a powerful theme within technological discourse and as an analytical concept that explains some of the suasory force by which such discourse maintains itself and its position in our culture. This essay makes a case for a rhetoric of technology that is distinct from the rhetoric of science and illustrates the value of the classical vocabulary for understanding contemporary rhetoric. This case is made by examining images and models of (...)
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  6. Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David (2005). Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930. Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.score: 90.0
    This paper examines some economic forecasts made in late 1930 that were intended to predict economic activity in the United States in order to shed light on several methodological issues. We document that these forecasts were extremely optimistic, predicting that the recession in the US would soon end, and that 1931 would show a recovery. These forecasts displayed egregious errors, because 1931 witnessed the largest negative growth rate for the US economy in any year in the twentieth century. A specific (...)
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  7. Augusto Forti (ed.) (1984). Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW] Pergamon.score: 86.0
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  8. Philip Brey (2012). Anticipatory Ethics for Emerging Technologies. NanoEthics 6 (1):1-13.score: 66.0
    Abstract In this essay, a new approach for the ethical study of emerging technology ethics will be presented, called anticipatory technology ethics (ATE). The ethics of emerging technology is the study of ethical issues at the R&D and introduction stage of technology development through anticipation of possible future devices, applications, and social consequences. I will argue that a major problem for its development is the problem of uncertainty, which can only be overcome through methodologically sound forecasting and futures studies. (...)
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  9. Ivan A. Boldyrev (2012). Philosophy of Science or Science and Technology Studies? Economic Methodology and Auction Theory. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 26 (3):289-307.score: 60.0
    This article addresses some recent tendencies in economic methodology defined as a philosophy of science for economics. I review the problem of normative/positive distinction in methodology and argue that normativity in its past forms is intolerable today but is, at the same time, indispensable for methodological inquiry. Using recent texts by Mirowski and Nik-Khah and by Alexandrova and Northcott on the applications of auction theory as a case study, I compare in more detail various approaches to economic (...) inspired by the science and technology studies (STS) and philosophy of science literatures, respectively. On the basis of this comparison, I show that the STS programme in economic methodology may prove fruitful in the future, but there is still a place for more aprioristic philosophical thinking. Methodology and history of economics also play a fundamental role that goes beyond the descriptive analysis of STS and offer conceptual clarification paired with normative concerns provided by philosophers of science. (shrink)
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  10. Cameron Shelley (2012). Fairness in Technological Design. Science and Engineering Ethics 18 (4):663-680.score: 58.0
    This paper addresses an important multi-disciplinary issue of current interest, that is, the implications of technological design for fairness. A visual, graphical methodology centered on the Taylor-Russell diagram is proposed to address this issue. The Taylor-Russell diagram helps to identify and explore ways in which predictions built into designs can pit the interests of different constituencies against one another. The configuration of the design represents a trade-off between the interests of the communities involved. Whether or not the trade-off (...)
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  11. Kristen C. Nelson, David A. Andow & Michael J. Banker (2009). Problem Formulation and Option Assessment (PFOA) Linking Governance and Environmental Risk Assessment for Technologies: A Methodology for Problem Analysis of Nanotechnologies and Genetically Engineered Organisms. Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics 37 (4):732-748.score: 56.7
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  12. Benoît Godin (2010). Innovation Without the Word: William F. Ogburn's Contribution to the Study of Technological Innovation. [REVIEW] Minerva 48 (3):277-307.score: 54.0
    The history of innovation as a category is dominated by economists and by the contribution of J. A. Schumpeter. This paper documents the contribution of a neglected but influential author, the American sociologist William F. Ogburn. Over a period of more than 30 years, Ogburn developed pioneering ideas on three dimensions of technological innovation: origins, diffusion, and effects. He also developed the first conceptual framework for innovation studies—based on the concept of cultural lags—which led to studying and forecasting (...)
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  13. Natalia Fischetti (2012). A kaleidoscope - Big wave: Technological rationality dialectics in Herbert Marcuse's work. Estudios de Filosofía Práctica E Historia de Las Ideas 14 (2):29-44.score: 54.0
    El presente texto corresponde a la presentación de la defensa de la tesis "La racionalidad científico-tecnológica. Aportes a la reflexión epistemológica en la obra de Herbert Marcuse", dirigida por la Dra. Delia Albarracín en la Maestría en Metodología de la Investigación Científica de la Universidad Nacional de Lanús, que dirige Esther Díaz, el 26 de agosto de 2011. En lo que sigue queremos sintetizar una lectura de la obra de Herbert Marcuse que pone el énfasis en un cruce posible entre (...)
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  14. Matthias Adam, The Changing Significance of Chance Experiments in Technological Development.score: 54.0
    Industrial drug design methodology has undergone remarkable changes in the recent history. Up to the 1970s, the screening of large numbers of randomly selected substances in biological test system was often a crucial step in the development of novel drugs. From the early 1980s, such ‘blind’ screening was increasingly rejected by many pharmaceutical researchers and gave way to ‘rational drug design’, a method that grounds the design of new drugs on a detailed mechanistic understanding of the drug action. Surprisingly, (...)
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  15. Kenichi Uchiyama & Satoshi Suzuki (2013). Rethinking 'IT/IS Use in a Technological Mature Society' From the Actuality Point of View: Critical Learning in Reflection on SSM Meeting About 'IT/IS Use'. [REVIEW] AI and Society 28 (4):389-398.score: 54.0
  16. Liliana Alexandrova (ed.) (1982). Some Philosophical and Methodological Problems of the Scientific and Technological Revolution: Lecture. Academy of Social Sciences and Social Management at the C.C. Of the B.C.P..score: 54.0
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  17. Christopher Freeman (1969). The Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities. Oldenbourg in Komm.].score: 54.0
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  18. Maria Rosaria Nucci Pearce & David Pearce (1989). Economics and Technological Change: Some Conceptual and Methodological Issues. Erkenntnis 30 (1-2):101 - 127.score: 50.0
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  19. Lynda Stone (2006). From Technologization to Totalization in Education Research: US Graduate Training, Methodology, and Critique. Journal of Philosophy of Education 40 (4):527–545.score: 50.0
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  20. Mark Coeckelbergh (2011). Human Development or Human Enhancement? A Methodological Reflection on Capabilities and the Evaluation of Information Technologies. Ethics and Information Technology 13 (2):81-92.score: 48.0
    Nussbaum’s version of the capability approach is not only a helpful approach to development problems but can also be employed as a general ethical-anthropological framework in ‘advanced’ societies. This paper explores its normative force for evaluating information technologies, with a particular focus on the issue of human enhancement. It suggests that the capability approach can be a useful way of to specify a workable and adequate level of analysis in human enhancement discussions, but argues that any interpretation of what these (...)
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  21. António Carvalho & João Arriscado Nunes (2013). Technology, Methodology and Intervention: Performing Nanoethics in Portugal. [REVIEW] NanoEthics 7 (2):149-160.score: 48.0
    During the last few decades we have witnessed a proliferation of exercises dealing with the public participation of citizens in various different dimensions of their societies, including issues of science and technology. On the one hand, these mechanisms provide more robust forms of public engagement with matters that were traditionally dealt with by experts; on the other hand, they raise concerns relating to their design, efficiency or potential for the empowerment of citizens. As part of the EC-funded project DEEPEN (Deepening (...)
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  22. Peter Coles (2006). From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability. Oxford University Press.score: 48.0
    Cosmology has undergone a revolution in recent years. The exciting interplay between astronomy and fundamental physics has led to dramatic revelations, including the existence of the dark matter and the dark energy that appear to dominate our cosmos. But these discoveries only reveal themselves through small effects in noisy experimental data. Dealing with such observations requires the careful application of probability and statistics. But it is not only in the arcane world of fundamental physics that probability theory plays such an (...)
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  23. Maartje Schermer & Jozef Keulartz (2003). Pragmatism as a Research Program – a Reply to Arras. Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 24 (1):19-29.score: 48.0
    This paper is a reaction to an article by John Arras published earlier in this journal. In this article Arras argues that freestanding pragmatism has little new to offer to bioethics. We respond to some of Arras' arguments and conclude that, although he overstates his case at certain points, his critique is, broadly speaking, correct. We then introduce and discuss an alternative approach to pragmatist ethics, one which puts to work the ideas and insights of pragmatism conceived as a broad (...)
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  24. Verónica Devenin & Guillermo Henríquez (2011). Narrativas Tecnológicas: Un Ejemplo de Aplicación de la Sociología de Las Asociaciones. Cinta de Moebio 41:167-181.score: 48.0
    Are social explanations, as we know them, adequate to account for the complexity of contemporary society and the ongoing emergence of new actors and new phenomena? To the Actor-Network Theory, there are no doubts: social factors are not sufficient to explain the dynamics of society. It is necessary ..
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  25. J. B. Nation (ed.) (2003). Formal Descriptions of Developing Systems. Kluwer Academic Publishers.score: 48.0
    A cutting-edge survey of formal methods directed specifically at dealing with the deep mathematical problems engendered by the study of developing systems, in particular dealing with developing phase spaces, changing components, structures and functionalities, and the problem of emergence. Several papers deal with the modelling of particular experimental situations in population biology, economics and plant and muscle developments in addition to purely theoretical approaches. Novel approaches include differential inclusions and viability theory, growth tensors, archetypal dynamics, ensembles with variable structures, and (...)
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  26. Mary Tiles (1995). Living in a Technological Culture: Human Tools and Human Values. Routledge.score: 46.0
    Holding the promise of both emancipation and oppression, technology at once terrifies and disturbs the social order. Its dazzles, seduces, yet it also unsettles and raises the specter of the loss of human values and our replacement by machines and silicon. In Living with Technology , Hans Oberdiek and Mary Tiles explore the cultural and philosophical tensions shrouding technology and its place in society. Examing the relationship between instrumental reason and technology, fact and value, efficient and responsibility, Oberdiek and Tiles (...)
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  27. Joachim Stolz (1996). Bericht: 10th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science (August 19–25, 1995; Florence, Italy). [REVIEW] Journal for General Philosophy of Science 27 (1):167-170.score: 44.0
    The International Union of History and Philosophy of Science organizing the 10th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science is at its cross-road: the alternative is mass-performance or creative exchange of ideas. The program is criticized because the thematic center in History and Philosophy of Science has been shifted too far into the realm of micro-fields of Logic and the time reduction for presentation and discussion of papers to 20 minutes should be reconsidered. Several outstanding papers are (...)
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  28. D. S. Horner (2005). Anticipating Ethical Challenges: Is There a Coming Era of Nanotechnology? [REVIEW] Ethics and Information Technology 7 (3):127-138.score: 42.0
    In this paper I question the claims made for a ‘coming era of nanotechnology’ and the ethical challenges, it is argued, that are entailed by this particular technological revolution. I argue that such futurist claims are sustained by an untenable modernist narrative which separates the technical and the social. This is exemplified by the work of K. Eric Drexler and his claim that whilst the course of scientific knowledge may remain unpredictable we nevertheless can predict with accuracy the trajectory (...)
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  29. Ana C. Santos (2007). The 'Materials' of Experimental Economics: Technological Versus Behavioral Experiments. Journal of Economic Methodology 14 (3):311-337.score: 42.0
    In the natural sciences there is a general consensus on the epistemic value conferred by the participation of the ?material world? in the experimental process of knowledge production. This is no different in experimental economics. However, an inquiry into the epistemic role of the ?materials? of economics is still underdeveloped. The present paper is meant as a contribution to this inquiry. Two categories of experiments are identified according to the differentiated role of the ?materials? of economics. It is argued that (...)
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  30. Wesley Shrum & John J. Beggs (1997). Methodology for Studying Research Networks in the Developing World: Generating Information for Science and Technology Policy. Knowledge, Technology and Policy 9 (4):62-85.score: 42.0
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  31. Jean Clement (2009). Hyperdocuments: What Are the Methodological Consequences?: 10. Hypertext, an Intellectual Technology in the Era of Complexity. In Bernard Reber & Claire Brossaud (eds.), Digital Cognitive Technologies: Epistemology and Knowledge Society. Iste Ltd.score: 42.0
     
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  32. John R. Fanchi (2012). Energy Forecast Technologies. In Jan Kyrre Berg Olsen Friis, Stig Andur Pedersen & Vincent F. Hendricks (eds.), A Companion to the Philosophy of Technology. Wiley-Blackwell.score: 42.0
     
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  33. Maria Bakardjieva & Georgia Gaden (2012). Web 2.0 Technologies of the Self. Philosophy and Technology 25 (3):399-413.score: 40.0
    Although no scholarly consensus exists on the issue, the claim that a substantive reconfiguration of the Internet has occurred in the beginning of the 2000s has settled firmly in public common sense. The label tentatively chosen for the new turn in the medium’s evolution is Web 2.0. The developments constituting this turn have been contemplated from different perspectives in technical and business publications (O’Reilly 2005), in treatises on convergence or participatory culture (Jenkins 2006; Jenkins et al. 2009), and could be (...)
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  34. Neelke Doorn (2010). Paul Sollie and Marcus Düwell (Eds): Evaluating New Technologies. Methodological Problems for the Ethical Assessment of Technology Developments. Science and Engineering Ethics 16 (1):217-219.score: 40.0
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  35. Peter Gärdenfors (1982). Dynamic Models as Tools for Forecasting and Planning: A Presentation and Some Methodological Aspects. Theory and Decision 14 (3):237-273.score: 40.0
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  36. MariaRosaria Nucci Pearce & David Pearce (1989). Economics and Technological Change: Some Conceptual and Methodological Issues. [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 30 (1-2):101-127.score: 40.0
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  37. Maria Rosaria Di Nucci Pearce & David Pearce (1989). Economics and Technological Change: Some Conceptual and Methodological Issues. [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 30 (1/2):101 - 127.score: 40.0
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  38. K. Boucek (1984). Methodological Approaches to the Utilization of Science and Technology in Praxis. Filosoficky Casopis 32 (4):521-533.score: 40.0
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  39. Ian Harris, Richard C. Jennings, David Pullinger, Simon Rogerson & Penny Duquenoy (2011). Ethical Assessment of New Technologies: A Meta-Methodology. Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society 9 (1):49-64.score: 40.0
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  40. Massimo Negrotti (2013). The Turing Test and the Technology of the Artificial: Theoretical and Methodological Issues. Epistemologia 1:7-17.score: 40.0
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  41. Ángel Vázquez‐Alonso, María‐Antonia Manassero‐Mas & José‐Antonio Acevedo‐Díaz (2006). An Analysis of Complex Multiple‐Choice Science–Technology–Society Items: Methodological Development and Preliminary Results. Science Education 90 (4):681-706.score: 40.0
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  42. Mieke Boon (2008). Diagrammatic Models in the Engineering Sciences. Foundations of Science 13 (2):127-142.score: 36.0
    This paper is concerned with scientific reasoning in the engineering sciences. Engineering sciences aim at explaining, predicting and describing physical phenomena occurring in technological devices. The focus of this paper is on mathematical description. These mathematical descriptions are important to computer-aided engineering or design programs (CAE and CAD). The first part of this paper explains why a traditional view, according to which scientific laws explain and predict phenomena and processes, is problematic. In the second part, the reasons of these (...)
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  43. Junren Wan (2009). Ethics and Ethicists in the Modern Context. Frontiers of Philosophy in China 4 (2):227-237.score: 36.0
    Ethics in the modern context is under the dual pressure of scientific-technological rationality and market commercialization, which has led to breakthroughs in the original boundaries of knowledge and academic methodology. The gradual separation of the domain of public life and that of private life in modern society and the former’s increasing pressure on the latter, in addition to the above dual pressure on ethics, is causing a dramatic transformation of the structure of ethical knowledge itself. All of these (...)
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  44. Wan Junren & Yan Xin (2009). Ethics and Ethicists in the Modern Context. Frontiers of Philosophy in China 4 (2):227 - 237.score: 36.0
    Ethics in the modern context is under the dual pressure of scientific-technological rationality and market commercialization, which has led to breakthroughs in the original boundaries of knowledge and academic methodology. The gradual separation of the domain of public life and that of private life in modern society and the former's increasing pressure on the latter, in addition to the above dual pressure on ethics, is causing a dramatic transformation of the structure of ethical knowledge itself. All of these (...)
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  45. Nicholas Rescher (1997). Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting. State University of New York Press.score: 36.0
    Develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems.
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  46. Rosalyn W. Berne & Daniel Raviv (2004). Eight-Dimensional Methodology for Innovative Thinking About the Case and Ethics of the Mount Graham, Large Binocular Telescope Project. Science and Engineering Ethics 10 (2):235-242.score: 34.0
    This paper introduces the Eight Dimensional Methodology for Innovative Thinking (the Eight Dimensional Methodology), for innovative problem solving, as a unified approach to case analysis that builds on comprehensive problem solving knowledge from industry, business, marketing, math, science, engineering, technology, arts, and daily life. It is designed to stimulate innovation by quickly generating unique “out of the box” unexpected and high quality solutions. It gives new insights and thinking strategies to solve everyday problems faced in the workplace, by (...)
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  47. Mieke Boon (2006). How Science is Applied in Technology. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 20 (1):27 – 47.score: 34.0
    Unlike basic sciences, scientific research in advanced technologies aims to explain, predict, and (mathematically) describe not phenomena in nature, but phenomena in technological artefacts, thereby producing knowledge that is utilized in technological design. This article first explains why the covering-law view of applying science is inadequate for characterizing this research practice. Instead, the covering-law approach and causal explanation are integrated in this practice. Ludwig Prandtl's approach to concrete fluid flows is used as an example of scientific research in (...)
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  48. Daniel Osherson, Aggregating Forecasts of Chance From Incoherent and Abstaining Experts.score: 34.0
    Decision makers often rely on expert opinion when making forecasts under uncertainty. In doing so, they confront two methodological challenges: the elicitation problem, which requires them to extract meaningful information from experts; and the aggregation problem, which requires them to combine expert opinion by resolving disagreements. Linear averaging is a justifiably popular method for addressing aggregation, but its robust simplicity makes two requirements on elicitation. First, each expert must offer probabilistically coherent forecasts; second, each expert must respond to all our (...)
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  49. Cassandra L. Pinnick (1996). Epistemology of Technology Assessment. Philosophy in the Contemporary World 3 (1):14-18.score: 34.0
    This paper criticizes Coliingridge’s arguments against an epistemology of technological control. Collingridge claims that because prediction mechanisms are inadequate, his “dilemma of control” demonstrates that the sociopolitical impact of new technologies cannot be forecasted, and that, consequently, policy makers must concentrate their control measures on minimizing the costs required to alter entrenched technologies. I argue that Collingridge does not show on either horn that forecasting is impossible, and that his criticisms of forecasting methods are self-defeating for they (...)
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  50. Jarrett Leplin (1992). Realism and Methodological Change. PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:435 - 445.score: 34.0
    Some recent theories in theoretical physics are not subject to epistemic evaluation by empiricist standards of evidential warrant. The advantage of these theories is not pragmatic but explanationist; they fail to yield testable consequences that distinguish them from earlier theories. But this is essentially a technological limitation, rather than a theoretical defect. There is an explanation, itself confirmed by empiricist standards, of the unconfirmability of these theories. This paper considers what epistemic stance is proper in this situation, and explores (...)
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