Search results for 'Uncertainty' (try it on Scholar)

1000+ found
Sort by:
  1. Alessandro Giordani & Luca Mari (2014). Modeling Measurement: Error and Uncertainty. In Marcel Boumans, Giora Hon & Arthur Petersen (eds.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice. Pickering & Chatto. 79-96.score: 27.0
    In the last few decades the role played by models and modeling activities has become a central topic in the scientific enterprise. In particular, it has been highlighted both that the development of models constitutes a crucial step for understanding the world and that the developed models operate as mediators between theories and the world. Such perspective is exploited here to cope with the issue as to whether error-based and uncertainty-based modeling of measurement are incompatible, and thus alternative with (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  2. Roger M. Cooke (1991). Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press.score: 24.0
    This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is (...)
    Direct download  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  3. Jean E. Burns (2012). The Action of Consciousness and the Uncertainty Principle. Journal of Nonlocality 1 (1).score: 24.0
    The term action of consciousness is used to refer to an influence, such as psychokinesis or free will, that produces an effect on matter that is correlated to mental intention, but not completely determined by physical conditions. Such an action could not conserve energy. But in that case, one wonders why, when highly accurate measurements are done, occasions of non-conserved energy (generated perhaps by unconscious PK) are not detected. A possible explanation is that actions of consciousness take place within the (...)
    Translate to English
    | Direct download (2 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  4. J. Smith, W. Shields & D. Washburn (2003). The Comparative Psychology of Uncertainty Monitoring and Metacognition. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 26 (3):317-339.score: 24.0
    Researchers have begun to explore animals' capacities for uncertainty monitoring and metacognition. This exploration could extend the study of animal self-awareness and establish the relationship of self-awareness to other-awareness. It could sharpen descriptions of metacognition in the human literature and suggest the earliest roots of metacognition in human development. We summarize research on uncertainty monitoring by humans, monkeys, and a dolphin within perceptual and metamemory tasks. We extend phylogenetically the search for metacognitive capacities by considering studies that have (...)
    Direct download (9 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  5. Jorge Wagensberg (2000). Complexity Versus Uncertainty: The Question of Staying Alive. [REVIEW] Biology and Philosophy 15 (4):493-508.score: 24.0
    Some real objects show a very particular tendency: that of becomingindependent with regard to the uncertainty of their surroundings. This isachieved by the exchange of three quantities: matter, energy andinformation. A conceptual framework, based on both Non-equilibriumThermodynamic and the Mathematical Theory of Communication is proposedin order to review the concept of change in living individuals. Three mainsituations are discussed in this context: passive independence inconnection with resistant living forms (such as seeds, spores, hibernation,...), active independence in connection with the (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  6. Paul Égré & Denis Bonnay (2010). Vagueness, Uncertainty and Degrees of Clarity. Synthese 174 (1):47 - 78.score: 24.0
    In this paper we compare different models of vagueness viewed as a specific form of subjective uncertainty in situations of imperfect discrimination. Our focus is on the logic of the operator “clearly” and on the problem of higher-order vagueness. We first examine the consequences of the notion of intransitivity of indiscriminability for higher-order vagueness, and compare several accounts of vagueness as inexact or imprecise knowledge, namely Williamson’s margin for error semantics, Halpern’s two-dimensional semantics, and the system we call Centered (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  7. John Lemons, Kristin Shrader-Frechette & Carl Cranor (1997). The Precautionary Principle: Scientific Uncertainty and Type I and Type II Errors. [REVIEW] Foundations of Science 2 (2):207-236.score: 24.0
    We provide examples of the extent and nature of environmental and human health problems and show why in the United States prevailing scientific and legal burden of proof requirements usually cannot be met because of the pervasiveness of scientific uncertainty. We also provide examples of how may assumptions, judgments, evaluations, and inferences in scientific methods are value-laden and that when this is not recognized results of studies will appear to be more factual and value-neutral than warranted. Further, we show (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  8. Lisa Warenski (2012). "Relative Uncertainty in Term Loan Projection Models: What Lenders Could Tell Risk Managers&Quot;. Journal of Experimental and Artificial Intelligence 24 (4):501-511.score: 24.0
    This article examines the epistemology of risk assessment in the context of financial modelling for the purposes of making loan underwriting decisions. A financing request for a company in the paper and pulp industry is considered in some detail. The paper and pulp industry was chosen because (1) it is subject to some specific risks that have been identified and studied by bankers, investors and managers of paper and pulp companies and (2) certain features of the industry enable analysts to (...)
    Translate to English
    | Direct download  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  9. Sven Ove Hansson (2009). Measuring Uncertainty. Studia Logica 93 (1):21 - 40.score: 24.0
    Two types of measures of probabilistic uncertainty are introduced and investigated. Dispersion measures report how diffused the agent’s second-order probability distribution is over the range of first-order probabilities. Robustness measures reflect the extent to which the agent’s assessment of the prior (objective) probability of an event is perturbed by information about whether or not the event actually took place. The properties of both types of measures are investigated. The most obvious type of robustness measure is shown to coincide with (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  10. Antonio Di Domenico, Andreas Gabriel, Beatrix C. Hiesmayr, Florian Hipp, Marcus Huber, Gerd Krizek, Karoline Mühlbacher, Sasa Radic, Christoph Spengler & Lukas Theussl (2012). Heisenberg's Uncertainty Relation and Bell Inequalities in High Energy Physics. Foundations of Physics 42 (6):778-802.score: 24.0
    An effective formalism is developed to handle decaying two-state systems. Herewith, observables of such systems can be described by a single operator in the Heisenberg picture. This allows for using the usual framework in quantum information theory and, hence, to enlighten the quantum features of such systems compared to non-decaying systems. We apply it to systems in high energy physics, i.e. to oscillating meson–antimeson systems. In particular, we discuss the entropic Heisenberg uncertainty relation for observables measured at different times (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  11. Alessandro Giordani & Luca Mari (2012). Measurement, Models, and Uncertainty. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement 61 (8):2144 - 2152.score: 24.0
    Against the tradition, which has considered measurement able to produce pure data on physical systems, the unavoidable role played by the modeling activity in measurement is increasingly acknowledged, particularly with respect to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. This paper characterizes measurement as a knowledge-based process and proposes a framework to understand the function of models in measurement and to systematically analyze their influence in the production of measurement results and their interpretation. To this aim, a general model of measurement (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  12. Alistair Isaac & Tomohiro Hoshi (2011). Synchronizing Diachronic Uncertainty. Journal of Logic, Language and Information 20 (2):137-159.score: 24.0
    Diachronic uncertainty, uncertainty about where an agent falls in time, poses interesting conceptual difficulties. Although the agent is uncertain about where she falls in time, this uncertainty can only obtain at a particular moment in time. We resolve this conceptual tension by providing a transformation from models with diachronic uncertainty relations into “equivalent” models with only synchronic uncertainty relations. The former are interpreted as capturing the causal structure of a situation, while the latter are interpreted (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  13. Tomasz Żuradzki (2012). The uncertainty about the moral status of human embryos and preimplantation genetic diagnosis (in Polish). Diametros 34:179 – 189.score: 24.0
    In this paper I report the discussion about the argument from moral uncertainty that took place in November 2012 during the debate on the website of the Polish Bioethics Society on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). The discussion was initiated by the Statement on PGD made by the Bioethics Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Here I discuss the theses of the Statement and dissenting opinions that initiated the debate, then I concentrate on the following issues: (I) the permissibility (...)
    Translate to English
    | Direct download (2 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  14. Ragnar Fjelland (2002). Facing the Problem of Uncertainty. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 15 (2):155-169.score: 24.0
    In a certain sense, uncertainty andignorance have been recognized in science andphilosophy from the time of the Greeks.However, the mathematical sciences have beendominated by the pursuit of certainty.Therefore, experiments under simplified andidealized conditions have been regarded as themost reliable source of knowledge. Normally,uncertainty could be ignored or controlled byapplying probability theory and statistics.Today, however, the situation is different.Uncertainty and ignorance have moved intofocus. In particular, the global character ofsome environmental problems has shown that theproblems cannot be disregarded. (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  15. Jonas Clausen Mork (2013). Uncertainty, Credal Sets and Second Order Probability. Synthese 190 (3):353-378.score: 24.0
    The last 20 years or so has seen an intense search carried out within Dempster–Shafer theory, with the aim of finding a generalization of the Shannon entropy for belief functions. In that time, there has also been much progress made in credal set theory—another generalization of the traditional Bayesian epistemic representation—albeit not in this particular area. In credal set theory, sets of probability functions are utilized to represent the epistemic state of rational agents instead of the single probability function of (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  16. William L. Ascher (2004). Scientific Information and Uncertainty: Challenges for the Use of Science in Policymaking. Science and Engineering Ethics 10 (3):437-455.score: 24.0
    Science can reinforce the healthy aspects of the politics of the policy process, to identify and further the public interest by discrediting policy options serving only special interests and helping to select among “science-confident” and “hedging” options. To do so, scientists must learn how to manage and communicate the degree of uncertainty in scientific understanding and prediction, lest uncertainty be manipulated to discredit science or to justify inaction. For natural resource and environmental policy, the institutional interests of government (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  17. Gert de Cooman & Peter Walley (2002). A Possibilistic Hierarchical Model for Behaviour Under Uncertainty. Theory and Decision 52 (4):327-374.score: 24.0
    Hierarchical models are commonly used for modelling uncertainty. They arise whenever there is a `correct' or `ideal' uncertainty model but the modeller is uncertain about what it is. Hierarchical models which involve probability distributions are widely used in Bayesian inference. Alternative models which involve possibility distributions have been proposed by several authors, but these models do not have a clear operational meaning. This paper describes a new hierarchical model which is mathematically equivalent to some of the earlier, possibilistic (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  18. Regula Valérie Burri (2007). Deliberating Risks Under Uncertainty: Experience, Trust, and Attitudes in a Swiss Nanotechnology Stakeholder Discussion Group. NanoEthics 1 (2):143-154.score: 24.0
    Scientific knowledge has not stabilized in the current, early, phase of research and development of nanotechnologies creating a challenge to ‘upstream’ public engagement. Nevertheless, the idea that the public should be involved in deliberative discussions and assessments of emerging technologies at this early stage is widely shared among governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders. Many forums for public debate including focus groups, and citizen juries, have thus been organized to explore public opinions on nanotechnologies in a variety of countries over the past (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  19. Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane (2010). Coherent Choice Functions Under Uncertainty. Synthese 172 (1):157 - 176.score: 24.0
    We discuss several features of coherent choice functions —where the admissible options in a decision problem are exactly those that maximize expected utility for some probability/utility pair in fixed set S of probability/utility pairs. In this paper we consider, primarily, normal form decision problems under uncertainty—where only the probability component of S is indeterminate and utility for two privileged outcomes is determinate. Coherent choice distinguishes between each pair of sets of probabilities regardless the “shape” or “connectedness” of the sets (...)
    Direct download (9 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  20. Sven Ove Hansson (2006). Uncertainty and the Ethics of Clinical Trials. Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 27 (2):149-167.score: 24.0
    A probabilistic explication is offered of equipoise and uncertainty in clinical trials. In order to be useful in the justification of clinical trials, equipoise has to be interpreted in terms of overlapping probability distributions of possible treatment outcomes, rather than point estimates representing expectation values. Uncertainty about treatment outcomes is shown to be a necessary but insufficient condition for the ethical defensibility of clinical trials. Additional requirements are proposed for the nature of that uncertainty. The indecisiveness of (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  21. Anne Ingeborg Myhr & Terje Traavik (2002). The Precautionary Principle: Scientific Uncertainty and Omitted Research in the Context of GMO Use and Release. [REVIEW] Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 15 (1):73-86.score: 24.0
    Commercialization of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have sparked profound controversies concerning adequate approaches to risk regulation. Scientific uncertainty and ambiguity, omitted research areas, and lack of basic knowledge crucial to risk assessmentshave become apparent. The objective of this article is to discuss the policy and practical implementation of the Precautionary Principle. A major conclusion is that the void in scientific understanding concerning risks posed by secondary effects and the complexity ofcause-effect relations warrant further research. Initiatives to approach the acceptance (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  22. Boudewijn de Bruin (2008). Common Knowledge of Payoff Uncertainty in Games. Synthese 163 (1):79-97.score: 24.0
    Using epistemic logic, we provide a non-probabilistic way to formalise payoff uncertainty, that is, statements such as ‘player i has approximate knowledge about the utility functions of player j.’ We show that on the basis of this formalisation common knowledge of payoff uncertainty and rationality (in the sense of excluding weakly dominated strategies, due to Dekel and Fudenberg (1990)) characterises a new solution concept we have called ‘mixed iterated strict weak dominance.’.
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  23. Mark Greene & Suzanne M. Smith (2008). Consenting to Uncertainty: Challenges for Informed Consent to Disease Screening—a Case Study. [REVIEW] Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics 29 (6):371-386.score: 24.0
    This paper uses chronic beryllium disease as a case study to explore some of the challenges for decision-making and some of the problems for obtaining meaningful informed consent when the interpretation of screening results is complicated by their probabilistic nature and is clouded by empirical uncertainty. Although avoidance of further beryllium exposure might seem prudent for any individual whose test results suggest heightened disease risk, we will argue that such a clinical precautionary approach is likely to be a mistake. (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  24. Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour (1998). Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem. [REVIEW] Theory and Decision 45 (3):263-289.score: 24.0
    A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  25. Chenghu Ma (2001). A No-Trade Theorem Under Knightian Uncertainty with General Preferences. Theory and Decision 51 (2/4):173-181.score: 24.0
    This paper derives a no-trade theorem under Knightian uncertainty, which generalizes the theorem of Milgrom and Stokey (1982, Journal of Economic Theory 26, 17) by allowing general preference relations. It is shown that the no-trade theorem holds true as long as agents' preferences are dynamically consistent in the sense of Machina and Schmeidler (1991, Econometrica 60, 745), and satisfies the so-called piece-wise monotonicity axiom. A preference satisfying the piece-wise monotonicity axiom does not necessarily imply the additive utility representation, nor (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  26. Andreas Lange (2001). A Note on Decisions Under Uncertainty: The Impact of the Choice of the Welfare Measure. Theory and Decision 51 (1):51-71.score: 24.0
    The paper addresses the question, how policy decisions under uncertainty depend on the underlying welfare concept. We study three different welfare measures: The first is directly based on the ex ante (expected) utility of a representative consumer whereas the second relies on an ex ante and the third on an ex post valuation of policy changes compared to the status quo. We show that decisions based on these measures coincide if and only if risk-neutral expected utility maximization is applied. (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  27. Patrick Brown & Michael Calnan (2013). NICE Technology Appraisals: Working with Multiple Levels of Uncertainty and the Potential for Bias. [REVIEW] Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy 16 (2):281-293.score: 24.0
    One of the key roles of the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) is technology appraisal. This essentially involves evaluating the cost effectiveness of pharmaceutical products and other technologies for use within the National Health Service. Based on a content analysis of key documents which shed light on the nature of appraisals, this paper draws attention to the multiple layers of uncertainty and complexity which are latent within the appraisal process, and the often socially constructed mechanisms (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  28. Maurice A. De Gosson (2009). The Symplectic Camel and the Uncertainty Principle: The Tip of an Iceberg? [REVIEW] Foundations of Physics 39 (2):194-214.score: 24.0
    We show that the strong form of Heisenberg’s inequalities due to Robertson and Schrödinger can be formally derived using only classical considerations. This is achieved using a statistical tool known as the “minimum volume ellipsoid” together with the notion of symplectic capacity, which we view as a topological measure of uncertainty invariant under Hamiltonian dynamics. This invariant provides a right measurement tool to define what “quantum scale” is. We take the opportunity to discuss the principle of the symplectic camel, (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  29. Stephen Morris (1997). Risk, Uncertainty and Hidden Information. Theory and Decision 42 (3):235-269.score: 24.0
    People are less willing to accept bets about an event when they do not know the true probability of that event. Such uncertainty aversion has been used to explain certain economic phenomena. This paper considers how far standard private information explanations (with strategic decisions to accept bets) can go in explaining phenomena attributed to uncertainty aversion. This paper shows that if two individuals have different prior beliefs about some event, and two sided private information, then each individual’s willingness (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  30. John Quiggin (2001). Production Under Uncertainty and Choice Under Uncertainty in the Emergence of Generalized Expected Utility Theory. Theory and Decision 51 (2/4):125-144.score: 24.0
    This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question (...)
    Direct download (8 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  31. George Wu (1999). Anxiety and Decision Making with Delayed Resolution of Uncertainty. Theory and Decision 46 (2):159-199.score: 24.0
    In many real-world gambles, a non-trivial amount of time passes before the uncertainty is resolved but after a choice is made. An individual may have a preference between gambles with identical probability distributions over final outcomes if they differ in the timing of resolution of uncertainty. In this domain, utility consists not only of the consumption of outcomes, but also the psychological utility induced by an unresolved gamble. We term this utility anxiety. Since a reflective decision maker may (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  32. Samira Guennif (2002). From Knowledge to Individual Action. Confidence, the Hidden Face of Uncertainty. A Rereading of the Works of Knight and Keynes. Mind and Society 3 (2):13-28.score: 24.0
    The works of Knight (1921) and Keynes (1921, 1936) seek to clarify confusion about uncertainty. According to these authors, a precise analysis of uncertainty is required, in order to obtain a clear significance of the concept and understand the consequences for the decision process. Consequently, Knight and Keynes study the content of the decision process in uncertainty and converge towards similar views on the mobilization of confidence. Their works thus go beyond a simple examination of uncertainty, (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  33. James Weber & Virginia W. Gerde (2011). Organizational Role and Environmental Uncertainty as Influences on Ethical Work Climate in Military Units. Journal of Business Ethics 100 (4):595 - 612.score: 24.0
    In addition to a person's character and training, the organization's ethical work climate (EWC) can assess how the organization influences an individual's ethical decision-making process by examining the individuals' perception of "what is the right thing to do" in a particular organizational environment. Relatively little research has explored which EWCs dominate military units and the impact of organizational role and environmental uncertainty on individuals in the military and their ethical decision making. In this study, we examined the predominant EWCs (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  34. Nicolas Drouhin (2001). Lifetime Uncertainty and Time Preference. Theory and Decision 51 (2/4):145-172.score: 24.0
    Despite Fisher's (1930) psychological intuitions of and the formal treatment given by Yaari (1965, Review of Economic Studies 32, 137), the intertemporal model of choice is mainly a model with certain lifetime. The purpose of this paper is to reconsider this assumption, starting from a very simple two-period model of choice with lifetime uncertainty. We examine the comparative statics of the model at the first two orders and replace the concept of `pure time preference' by taking into account the (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  35. Anna Paldam Folker & Peter Sandøe (2008). Leaping “Out of the Doubt”—Nutrition Advice: Values at Stake in Communicating Scientific Uncertainty to the Public. [REVIEW] Health Care Analysis 16 (2):176-191.score: 24.0
    This article deals with scientific advice to the public where the relevant science is subject to public attention and uncertainty of knowledge. It focuses on a tension in the management and presentation of scientific uncertainty between the uncertain nature of science and the expectation that scientific advisers will provide clear public guidance. In the first part of the paper the tension is illustrated by the presentation of results from a recent interview study with nutrition scientists in Denmark. According (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  36. Gitte Meyer, Anna Paldam Folker, Rikke Bagger Jørgensen, Martin Krayer von Krauss, Peter Sandøe & Geir Tveit (2005). The Factualization of Uncertainty: Risk, Politics, and Genetically Modified Crops – a Case of Rape. [REVIEW] Agriculture and Human Values 22 (2):235-242.score: 24.0
    Mandatory risk assessment is intended to reassure concerned citizens and introduce reason into the heated European controversies on genetically modified crops and food. The authors, examining a case of risk assessment of genetically modified oilseed rape, claim that the new European legislation on risk assessment does nothing of the sort and is not likely to present an escape from the international deadlock on the use of genetic modification in agriculture and food production. The new legislation is likely to stimulate the (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  37. Haiyan Xu, Keith W. Hipel, D. Marc Kilgour & Ye Chen (2010). Combining Strength and Uncertainty for Preferences in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Multiple Decision Makers. Theory and Decision 69 (4):497-521.score: 24.0
    A hybrid preference framework is proposed for strategic conflict analysis to integrate preference strength and preference uncertainty into the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) under multiple decision makers. This structure offers decision makers a more flexible mechanism for preference expression, which can include strong or mild preference of one state or scenario over another, as well as equal preference. In addition, preference between two states can be uncertain. The result is a preference framework that is (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  38. Erica C. Yu (2012). Planning for Uncertainty. Frontiers in Psychology 3.score: 24.0
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  39. Marko Ahteensuu & Susanna Lehvävirta (2014). Assisted Migration, Risks and Scientific Uncertainty, and Ethics: A Comment on Albrecht Et Al.'S Review Paper. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 27 (3):471-477.score: 24.0
    In response to Albrecht et al.’s (J Agric Environ Ethics 26(4):827–845, 2013) discussion on the ethics of assisted migration, we emphasize the issues of risk and scientific uncertainty as an inextricable part of a comprehensive ethical evaluation. Insisting on a separation of risk and ethical considerations, although arguably common in many policy contexts, is at best misguided and at worst damaging.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  40. Franz Baader, Hans-Jürgen Bürckert, Bernhard Nebel, Werner Nutt & Gert Smolka (1993). On the Expressivity of Feature Logics with Negation, Functional Uncertainty, and Sort Equations. Journal of Logic, Language and Information 2 (1):1-18.score: 24.0
    Feature logics are the logical basis for so-called unification grammars studied in computational linguistics. We investigate the expressivity of feature terms with negation and the functional uncertainty construct needed for the description of long-distance dependencies and obtain the following results: satisfiability of feature terms is undecidable, sort equations can be internalized, consistency of sort equations is decidable if there is at least one atom, and consistency of sort equations is undecidable if there is no atom.
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  41. Aldo Montesano (2008). Effects of Uncertainty Aversion on the Call Option Market. Theory and Decision 65 (2):97-123.score: 24.0
    This article examines the effects of uncertainty aversion in competitive call option markets using a partial equilibrium model with the Choquet-expected utility setup. We find that the trading volume of a call option is negatively affected by uncertainty aversion, whereas the price of the call is practically independent of it.
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  42. Carlotta Piscopo & Mauro Birattari (2008). The Metaphysical Character of the Criticisms Raised Against the Use of Probability for Dealing with Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Minds and Machines 18 (2):273-288.score: 24.0
    In artificial intelligence (AI), a number of criticisms were raised against the use of probability for dealing with uncertainty. All these criticisms, except what in this article we call the non-adequacy claim, have been eventually confuted. The non-adequacy claim is an exception because, unlike the other criticisms, it is exquisitely philosophical and, possibly for this reason, it was not discussed in the technical literature. A lack of clarity and understanding of this claim had a major impact on AI. Indeed, (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  43. Kevin A. Smith & Edward Vul (2013). Sources of Uncertainty in Intuitive Physics. Topics in Cognitive Science 5 (1):185-199.score: 24.0
    Recent work suggests that people predict how objects interact in a manner consistent with Newtonian physics, but with additional uncertainty. However, the sources of uncertainty have not been examined. In this study, we measure perceptual noise in initial conditions and stochasticity in the physical model used to make predictions. Participants predicted the trajectory of a moving object through occluded motion and bounces, and we compared their behavior to an ideal observer model. We found that human judgments cannot be (...)
    Direct download (7 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  44. Tomasz Żuradzki (forthcoming). Moral Uncertainty in Bioethical Argumentation: A New Understanding of the Pro-Life View on Early Human Embryos. Theoretical Medicine and Bioethics:1-17.score: 24.0
    In this article, I present a new interpretation of the pro-life view on the status of early human embryos. In my understanding, this position is based not on presumptions about the ontological status of embryos and their developmental capabilities but on the specific criteria of rational decisions under uncertainty and on a cautious response to the ambiguous status of embryos. This view, which uses the decision theory model of moral reasoning, promises to reconcile the uncertainty about the ontological (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  45. Martin Ahlbrecht & Martin Weber (1997). Preference for Gradual Resolution of Uncertainty. Theory and Decision 43 (2):167-185.score: 24.0
    Analyses of preference for the timing of uncertainty resolution usually assumes all uncertainty to resolve in one point in time. More realistically, uncertainty should be modelled to resolve gradually over time. Kreps and Porteus (1978) have introduced an axiomatically based model of time preference which can explain preferences for gradual uncertainty resolution. This paper presents an experimental test of the Kreps-Porteus model. We derive implications of the model relating preferences for gradual and one-time resolving lotteries. Our (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  46. F. Ben Abdelaziz, P. Lang & R. Nadeau (1999). Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision Under Uncertainty. Theory and Decision 47 (3):191-211.score: 24.0
    This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision ‘contexts’, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  47. Louise Cummings (2009). Emerging Infectious Diseases: Coping with Uncertainty. [REVIEW] Argumentation 23 (2):171-188.score: 24.0
    The world’s scientific community must be in a state of constant readiness to address the threat posed by newly emerging infectious diseases. Whether the disease in question is SARS in humans or BSE in animals, scientists must be able to put into action various disease containment measures when everything from the causative pathogen to route(s) of transmission is essentially uncertain. A robust epistemic framework, which will inform decision-making, is required under such conditions of uncertainty. I will argue that this (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  48. Louise Cummings (2002). Reasoning Under Uncertainty: The Role of Two Informal Fallacies in an Emerging Scientific Inquiry. Informal Logic 22 (2).score: 24.0
    lt is now commonplace in fallacy inquiry for many of the traditional informal fallacies to be viewed as reasonable or nonfallacious modes of argument. Central to this evaluative shift has been the attempt to examine traditional fallacies within their wider contexts of use. However, this pragmatic turn in fallacy evaluation is still in its infancy. The true potential of a contextual approach in the evaluation of the fallacies is yet to be explored. I examine how, in the context of scientific (...)
    Direct download (13 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  49. Jeff Davis & Daniel Werre (2008). A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Uncertainty on Reproductive Behaviors. Human Nature 19 (4):426-452.score: 24.0
    Uncertainty exerts powerful influences on life history decisions. This has been demonstrated in experiments on nonhumans and in mathematical models. Studies of human populations are suggestive of the effects of uncertainty, but they rely on measures of environmental stress. In this paper, we derive a new measure of uncertainty, upsilon (υ), for use in non-experimental studies. We estimate its association with reproductive behaviors in a longitudinal panel sample of adolescents in the United States. Results show upsilon’s internal (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
  50. Irene M. Herremans, Robert G. Isaac, Theresa J. B. Kline & Jamal A. Nazari (2011). Intellectual Capital and Uncertainty of Knowledge: Control by Design of the Management System. [REVIEW] Journal of Business Ethics 98 (4):627 - 640.score: 24.0
    This research, couched in the resourcebased view of the firm, investigates the potential for reducing an organization's decision uncertainty within its structural equation modeling, we empirically test if organizational design can reduce the perceived uncertainty related to an IC context, which we refer to as knowledge uncertainty. We found evidence that decentralization and technology infrastruture support a resultsbased IC mangement contrl system which in turn is associated with reduced support a good overall fit for our model. Our (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    My bibliography  
     
    Export citation  
1 — 50 / 1000