The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)

Population  AOS Normalization (set other=0)(?)
Note: |error| = absolute error

A priori knowledge: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes54.2%71.1%-16.9%21.3%48%34%
No32.5%18.4%14.1%17.2%32%18%
Other13.3%10.5%2.7%9.0%7%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 204

Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Nominalism45.5%37.7%7.8%16.3%34%16%
Platonism34.8%39.3%-4.5%14.7%25%8%
Other19.7%23.0%-3.3%14.1%28%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 196

Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Subjective57.9%34.5%23.4%25.8%61%41%
Objective26.9%41.0%-14.1%17.8%44%20%
Other15.2%24.5%-9.3%15.2%26%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 193

Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Yes42.8%64.9%-22.1%24.6%60%35%
No42.2%27.1%15.1%18.2%36%24%
Other15.0%8.1%7.0%11.0%17%6%

Sample size (non-skipped): 201

Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism44.8%42.7%2.1%11.7%17%4%
Internalism36.9%26.4%10.5%13.3%21%10%
Other18.3%30.8%-12.5%16.8%43%18%

Sample size (non-skipped): 191

External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-skeptical realism69.4%81.6%-12.2%15.1%31%15%
Skepticism12.1%4.8%7.3%8.3%12%3%
Other9.9%9.2%0.7%7.2%5%3%
Idealism8.5%4.3%4.2%5.3%3%0%

Sample size (non-skipped): 204

Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Compatibilism51.0%59.1%-8.1%14.5%28%8%
Libertarianism22.3%13.7%8.6%11.2%15%5%
No free will16.5%12.2%4.3%8.3%7%2%
Other10.1%14.9%-4.8%10.1%4%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 196

God: theism or atheism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Atheism68.1%72.8%-4.7%12.8%18%9%
Theism20.8%14.6%6.2%9.4%10%5%
Other11.1%12.6%-1.5%9.4%6%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 209

Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Invariantism36.7%31.1%5.6%14.5%25%8%
Contextualism32.5%40.1%-7.5%13.5%29%5%
Other16.9%25.9%-9.0%16.1%38%3%
Relativism13.9%2.9%11.0%11.1%13%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 178

Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Empiricism54.4%35.0%19.4%22.1%48%31%
Rationalism26.6%27.8%-1.3%10.8%15%3%
Other19.1%37.2%-18.1%22.6%59%31%

Sample size (non-skipped): 200

Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Non-Humean42.4%57.1%-14.7%19.9%46%23%
Humean38.7%24.7%14.0%16.8%36%17%
Other18.9%18.2%0.7%13.2%14%7%

Sample size (non-skipped): 183

Logic: classical or non-classical?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Classical62.5%51.6%11.0%19.5%51%20%
Non-classical23.1%15.4%7.7%11.5%16%9%
Other14.4%33.1%-18.7%21.0%59%24%

Sample size (non-skipped): 188

Mental content: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Externalism53.6%51.1%2.5%13.4%23%5%
Internalism31.5%20.0%11.6%13.2%30%13%
Other14.9%28.9%-14.0%17.1%33%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 189

Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Moral realism45.0%56.4%-11.4%16.3%37%10%
Moral anti-realism39.7%27.7%12.0%14.7%28%12%
Other15.3%15.9%-0.6%10.0%6%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 201

Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Naturalism57.3%49.8%7.4%17.2%40%16%
Non-naturalism27.7%25.9%1.8%11.3%12%6%
Other15.0%24.3%-9.2%15.0%28%2%

Sample size (non-skipped): 187

Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Physicalism64.2%56.5%7.7%14.8%31%6%
Non-physicalism23.9%27.1%-3.2%9.4%8%1%
Other11.9%16.4%-4.5%9.9%5%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 200

Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Cognitivism50.8%65.7%-14.9%18.0%40%19%
Non-cognitivism34.0%17.0%17.1%18.7%42%21%
Other15.1%17.3%-2.2%10.8%7%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 195

Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Internalism43.6%34.9%8.7%15.3%31%14%
Externalism36.4%29.8%6.7%12.1%23%9%
Other19.9%35.3%-15.4%20.9%51%27%

Sample size (non-skipped): 172

Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Two boxes48.3%31.4%17.0%22.2%46%27%
One box31.4%21.3%10.2%15.3%28%9%
Other20.2%47.4%-27.1%31.7%77%58%

Sample size (non-skipped): 158

Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Consequentialism35.9%23.6%12.3%15.0%25%9%
Deontology29.6%25.9%3.8%10.1%12%5%
Virtue ethics20.7%18.2%2.6%7.3%4%2%
Other13.7%32.3%-18.6%21.5%61%25%

Sample size (non-skipped): 197

Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Representationalism32.9%31.5%1.4%11.7%15%3%
Qualia theory21.2%12.2%8.9%11.5%14%4%
Other19.5%42.2%-22.7%26.1%73%44%
Disjunctivism16.2%11.0%5.3%8.3%7%1%
Sense-datum theory10.2%3.1%7.1%7.5%4%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 158

Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Psychological view41.3%33.6%7.7%13.8%23%8%
Biological view27.0%16.9%10.2%13.0%19%9%
Further-fact view16.5%12.2%4.3%7.9%5%1%
Other15.2%37.3%-22.1%24.1%65%33%

Sample size (non-skipped): 182

Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Egalitarianism41.5%34.8%6.7%14.4%27%12%
Communitarianism21.0%14.3%6.8%9.5%12%2%
Libertarianism18.8%9.9%8.9%10.1%19%8%
Other18.6%41.0%-22.4%25.5%73%47%

Sample size (non-skipped): 172

Proper names: Fregean or Millian?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Millian44.6%34.5%10.1%17.6%41%16%
Fregean34.8%28.7%6.1%13.2%24%12%
Other20.6%36.8%-16.2%22.2%57%30%

Sample size (non-skipped): 182

Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Scientific realism57.9%75.1%-17.2%19.1%39%22%
Scientific anti-realism27.9%11.6%16.3%16.9%30%10%
Other14.2%13.3%0.9%9.4%8%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 204

Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Survival42.6%36.2%6.4%15.6%32%12%
Death36.4%31.1%5.3%15.4%28%12%
Other21.0%32.7%-11.7%18.3%44%22%

Sample size (non-skipped): 183

Time: A-theory or B-theory?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
B-theory44.0%26.3%17.7%20.5%48%26%
A-theory30.0%15.5%14.5%15.9%29%12%
Other26.0%58.2%-32.2%34.3%74%59%

Sample size (non-skipped): 141

Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Switch60.5%68.2%-7.7%17.7%37%15%
Don't switch24.6%7.6%16.9%17.8%35%20%
Other14.9%24.2%-9.3%15.6%31%3%

Sample size (non-skipped): 191

Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Correspondence40.8%50.8%-10.0%15.3%39%14%
Deflationary29.6%24.8%4.8%10.6%17%5%
Epistemic15.5%6.9%8.7%9.5%13%4%
Other14.0%17.5%-3.5%11.9%7%4%

Sample size (non-skipped): 196

Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?

OptionMean estimateActualMean errorMean |error||error| >= 20%|error| >= 30%
Conceivable but not metaphysically possible35.0%35.6%-0.5%13.8%25%8%
Metaphysically possible30.6%23.3%7.3%12.9%21%10%
Inconceivable18.9%16.0%2.9%8.2%6%2%
Other15.5%25.1%-9.6%14.7%38%1%

Sample size (non-skipped): 177

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