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The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)
Note: |error| = absolute error
A priori knowledge: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 51.5% | 71.1% | -19.7% | 23.4% | 52% | 39% |
| No | 35.6% | 18.4% | 17.3% | 20.1% | 39% | 24% |
| Other | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 9.2% | 8% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 413
Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Nominalism | 47.5% | 37.7% | 9.8% | 17% | 38% | 21% |
| Platonism | 33.7% | 39.3% | -5.6% | 15.3% | 27% | 9% |
| Other | 18.8% | 23% | -4.2% | 14.1% | 28% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 399
Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Subjective | 58.1% | 34.5% | 23.6% | 26.2% | 63% | 41% |
| Objective | 27.5% | 41% | -13.5% | 18.5% | 46% | 22% |
| Other | 14.4% | 24.5% | -10% | 15% | 27% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 403
Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 43.9% | 64.9% | -21% | 23.9% | 56% | 32% |
| No | 41.5% | 27.1% | 14.4% | 18.2% | 37% | 22% |
| Other | 14.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 17% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 411
Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 46.6% | 42.7% | 3.9% | 12.9% | 21% | 6% |
| Internalism | 37.2% | 26.4% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 22% | 11% |
| Other | 16.2% | 30.8% | -14.6% | 18.3% | 52% | 21% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 387
External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-skeptical realism | 65.3% | 81.6% | -16.3% | 18.5% | 41% | 23% |
| Skepticism | 15.1% | 4.8% | 10.3% | 11% | 18% | 8% |
| Other | 9.9% | 9.2% | 0.7% | 7.6% | 6% | 4% |
| Idealism | 9.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 418
Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Compatibilism | 49.2% | 59.1% | -9.9% | 15.9% | 31% | 11% |
| Libertarianism | 22.7% | 13.7% | 9% | 11.7% | 16% | 6% |
| No free will | 18.7% | 12.2% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 11% | 5% |
| Other | 9.3% | 14.9% | -5.6% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 409
God: theism or atheism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Atheism | 65.9% | 72.8% | -7% | 14.6% | 25% | 13% |
| Theism | 22.0% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 14% | 7% |
| Other | 12.2% | 12.6% | -0.4% | 9.7% | 7% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 429
Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Invariantism | 34.4% | 31.1% | 3.3% | 14.7% | 27% | 8% |
| Contextualism | 32.8% | 40.1% | -7.3% | 13.3% | 28% | 6% |
| Relativism | 16.7% | 2.9% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 23% | 7% |
| Other | 16.2% | 25.9% | -9.7% | 16.3% | 37% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 358
Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Empiricism | 52.9% | 35% | 17.9% | 21.3% | 48% | 27% |
| Rationalism | 28.9% | 27.8% | 1.1% | 10.9% | 15% | 4% |
| Other | 18.2% | 37.2% | -19% | 23.3% | 61% | 34% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 413
Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-Humean | 42.0% | 57.1% | -15.1% | 20% | 49% | 22% |
| Humean | 40.9% | 24.7% | 16.2% | 18.9% | 41% | 21% |
| Other | 17.0% | 18.2% | -1.1% | 12.6% | 11% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 379
Logic: classical or non-classical?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Classical | 60.8% | 51.6% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 49% | 20% |
| Non-classical | 25.6% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 21% | 12% |
| Other | 13.5% | 33.1% | -19.5% | 22% | 64% | 26% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 379
Mental content: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 51.3% | 51.1% | 0.1% | 14% | 25% | 7% |
| Internalism | 34.2% | 20% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 37% | 19% |
| Other | 14.5% | 28.9% | -14.4% | 17.5% | 35% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 387
Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Moral realism | 44.5% | 56.4% | -11.9% | 17.1% | 40% | 15% |
| Moral anti-realism | 41.4% | 27.7% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 34% | 18% |
| Other | 14.1% | 15.9% | -1.8% | 10.2% | 6% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 410
Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Naturalism | 58.2% | 49.8% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 41% | 18% |
| Non-naturalism | 28.3% | 25.9% | 2.4% | 11.6% | 15% | 6% |
| Other | 13.5% | 24.3% | -10.8% | 15.4% | 31% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 391
Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Physicalism | 62.8% | 56.5% | 6.3% | 15% | 29% | 8% |
| Non-physicalism | 25.2% | 27.1% | -1.9% | 10.3% | 11% | 3% |
| Other | 12.0% | 16.4% | -4.4% | 10.4% | 4% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 417
Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Cognitivism | 50.3% | 65.7% | -15.4% | 18.6% | 41% | 21% |
| Non-cognitivism | 35.4% | 17% | 18.4% | 19.8% | 44% | 24% |
| Other | 14.3% | 17.3% | -3% | 10.6% | 6% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 404
Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Internalism | 43.4% | 34.9% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 30% | 14% |
| Externalism | 38.4% | 29.8% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 28% | 13% |
| Other | 18.2% | 35.3% | -17.1% | 21.5% | 56% | 27% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 351
Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Two boxes | 46.3% | 31.4% | 15% | 21.2% | 43% | 23% |
| One box | 32.1% | 21.3% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 28% | 9% |
| Other | 21.6% | 47.4% | -25.8% | 31.6% | 77% | 58% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 287
Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Consequentialism | 36.8% | 23.6% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 25% | 11% |
| Deontology | 30.0% | 25.9% | 4.1% | 9.8% | 11% | 3% |
| Virtue ethics | 21.0% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 7.7% | 5% | 1% |
| Other | 12.2% | 32.3% | -20.1% | 21.9% | 65% | 27% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 403
Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Representationalism | 33.8% | 31.5% | 2.4% | 12.4% | 18% | 5% |
| Qualia theory | 20.9% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11% | 3% |
| Other | 17.8% | 42.2% | -24.4% | 27.2% | 74% | 50% |
| Disjunctivism | 15.7% | 11% | 4.8% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| Sense-datum theory | 11.8% | 3.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 324
Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Psychological view | 41.1% | 33.6% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 25% | 8% |
| Biological view | 27.6% | 16.9% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 22% | 9% |
| Further-fact view | 17.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7% | 1% |
| Other | 14.3% | 37.3% | -23% | 24.8% | 68% | 36% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 370
Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Egalitarianism | 40.4% | 34.8% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 30% | 11% |
| Libertarianism | 21.9% | 9.9% | 12% | 12.9% | 27% | 12% |
| Communitarianism | 21.7% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 14% | 5% |
| Other | 15.9% | 41% | -25.1% | 27.3% | 76% | 55% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 361
Proper names: Fregean or Millian?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Millian | 44.4% | 34.5% | 9.9% | 17.5% | 38% | 17% |
| Fregean | 36.1% | 28.7% | 7.4% | 14.2% | 26% | 14% |
| Other | 19.6% | 36.8% | -17.3% | 22.7% | 58% | 30% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 351
Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Scientific realism | 57.5% | 75.1% | -17.6% | 19.3% | 42% | 24% |
| Scientific anti-realism | 28.7% | 11.6% | 17.1% | 17.6% | 31% | 13% |
| Other | 13.8% | 13.3% | 0.5% | 9.6% | 8% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 416
Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Survival | 41.7% | 36.2% | 5.5% | 16.1% | 34% | 15% |
| Death | 37.9% | 31.1% | 6.8% | 16.4% | 30% | 14% |
| Other | 20.3% | 32.7% | -12.3% | 19.2% | 48% | 23% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 371
Time: A-theory or B-theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| B-theory | 43.2% | 26.3% | 16.9% | 20.5% | 46% | 24% |
| A-theory | 31.5% | 15.5% | 16% | 17.5% | 34% | 17% |
| Other | 25.3% | 58.2% | -32.9% | 35.7% | 77% | 63% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 288
Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Switch | 59.9% | 68.2% | -8.3% | 18% | 37% | 16% |
| Don't switch | 25.2% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 18.4% | 38% | 21% |
| Other | 14.9% | 24.2% | -9.2% | 15.9% | 31% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 383
Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Correspondence | 40.6% | 50.8% | -10.2% | 16.2% | 40% | 15% |
| Deflationary | 29.1% | 24.8% | 4.3% | 10.8% | 16% | 5% |
| Epistemic | 17.4% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 19% | 7% |
| Other | 12.8% | 17.5% | -4.7% | 11.7% | 6% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 391
Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Conceivable but not metaphysically possible | 35.8% | 35.6% | 0.2% | 14.7% | 29% | 11% |
| Metaphysically possible | 29.7% | 23.3% | 6.4% | 13.5% | 21% | 10% |
| Inconceivable | 19.8% | 16% | 3.8% | 9.4% | 9% | 4% |
| Other | 14.7% | 25.1% | -10.5% | 15.6% | 41% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 360
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