The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results
Note: |error| = absolute error
A priori knowledge: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 62.3% | 79.5% | -17.2% | 20.3% | 39% | 23% |
| No | 37.7% | 20.5% | 17.2% | 20.3% | 39% | 23% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Nominalism | 56.5% | 49.0% | 7.6% | 16.0% | 37% | 14% |
| Platonism | 43.5% | 51.0% | -7.6% | 16.0% | 37% | 14% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Subjective | 67.7% | 45.7% | 22.0% | 24.4% | 63% | 34% |
| Objective | 32.3% | 54.3% | -22.0% | 24.4% | 63% | 34% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 193
Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 50.0% | 70.6% | -20.6% | 23.2% | 58% | 35% |
| No | 50.0% | 29.4% | 20.6% | 23.2% | 58% | 35% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 201
Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 54.7% | 61.8% | -7.1% | 12.4% | 20% | 6% |
| Internalism | 45.3% | 38.2% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 20% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 191
External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-skeptical realism | 76.7% | 89.9% | -13.2% | 14.9% | 27% | 12% |
| Skepticism | 13.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12% | 5% |
| Idealism | 9.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Compatibilism | 56.7% | 69.4% | -12.7% | 16.4% | 28% | 15% |
| Libertarianism | 24.9% | 16.2% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 15% | 6% |
| No free will | 18.4% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 9.1% | 9% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
God: theism or atheism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Atheism | 76.0% | 83.3% | -7.3% | 11.1% | 15% | 7% |
| Theism | 24.0% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 15% | 7% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 209
Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Invariantism | 43.4% | 42.0% | 1.3% | 14.1% | 25% | 8% |
| Contextualism | 39.0% | 54.1% | -15.0% | 18.0% | 43% | 12% |
| Relativism | 17.6% | 3.9% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 23% | 8% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 178
Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Empiricism | 66.5% | 55.7% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 30% | 12% |
| Rationalism | 33.5% | 44.3% | -10.8% | 15.4% | 30% | 12% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 200
Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-Humean | 52.1% | 69.8% | -17.8% | 20.4% | 38% | 26% |
| Humean | 47.9% | 30.2% | 17.8% | 20.4% | 38% | 26% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 183
Logic: classical or non-classical?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Classical | 72.4% | 77.0% | -4.7% | 13.4% | 18% | 9% |
| Non-classical | 27.6% | 23.0% | 4.7% | 13.4% | 18% | 9% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 188
Mental content: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 62.7% | 71.9% | -9.2% | 13.6% | 26% | 11% |
| Internalism | 37.3% | 28.1% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 26% | 11% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 189
Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Moral realism | 52.9% | 67.0% | -14.1% | 17.4% | 33% | 15% |
| Moral anti-realism | 47.1% | 33.0% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 33% | 15% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 201
Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Naturalism | 67.0% | 65.8% | 1.1% | 13.5% | 21% | 7% |
| Non-naturalism | 33.0% | 34.2% | -1.1% | 13.5% | 21% | 7% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 187
Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Physicalism | 72.4% | 67.6% | 4.8% | 11.7% | 17% | 3% |
| Non-physicalism | 27.6% | 32.4% | -4.8% | 11.7% | 17% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 200
Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Cognitivism | 60.1% | 79.5% | -19.4% | 21.3% | 49% | 22% |
| Non-cognitivism | 39.9% | 20.5% | 19.4% | 21.3% | 49% | 22% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 195
Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Internalism | 54.0% | 54.0% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 22% | 5% |
| Externalism | 46.0% | 46.0% | -0.0% | 12.1% | 22% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 172
Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Two boxes | 60.0% | 59.6% | 0.4% | 15.7% | 32% | 11% |
| One box | 40.0% | 40.4% | -0.4% | 15.7% | 32% | 11% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 158
Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Consequentialism | 41.5% | 34.9% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 19% | 6% |
| Deontology | 34.4% | 38.3% | -3.9% | 10.9% | 15% | 3% |
| Virtue ethics | 24.2% | 26.8% | -2.7% | 8.2% | 5% | 1% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 197
Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Representationalism | 41.3% | 54.5% | -13.2% | 17.4% | 43% | 13% |
| Qualia theory | 25.8% | 21.2% | 4.6% | 10.8% | 16% | 3% |
| Disjunctivism | 20.4% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 9.0% | 6% | 2% |
| Sense-datum theory | 12.6% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 158
Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Psychological view | 48.5% | 53.6% | -5.1% | 13.0% | 26% | 7% |
| Biological view | 31.7% | 26.9% | 4.9% | 11.4% | 17% | 5% |
| Further-fact view | 19.8% | 19.5% | 0.3% | 8.9% | 5% | 2% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 182
Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Egalitarianism | 50.1% | 59.0% | -8.9% | 14.9% | 28% | 9% |
| Communitarianism | 26.0% | 24.2% | 1.8% | 9.1% | 11% | 2% |
| Libertarianism | 23.9% | 16.8% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 15% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 172
Proper names: Fregean or Millian?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Millian | 55.6% | 54.6% | 1.1% | 14.6% | 29% | 9% |
| Fregean | 44.4% | 45.4% | -1.1% | 14.6% | 29% | 9% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 182
Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Scientific realism | 67.0% | 86.6% | -19.6% | 20.3% | 41% | 19% |
| Scientific anti-realism | 33.0% | 13.4% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 41% | 19% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 204
Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Survival | 54.5% | 53.7% | 0.8% | 15.6% | 33% | 14% |
| Death | 45.5% | 46.3% | -0.8% | 15.6% | 33% | 14% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 183
Time: A-theory or B-theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| B-theory | 58.5% | 63.0% | -4.5% | 12.9% | 16% | 6% |
| A-theory | 41.5% | 37.0% | 4.5% | 12.9% | 16% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 141
Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Switch | 70.5% | 89.9% | -19.5% | 20.8% | 42% | 28% |
| Don't switch | 29.5% | 10.1% | 19.5% | 20.8% | 42% | 28% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 191
Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Correspondence | 47.3% | 61.6% | -14.3% | 17.6% | 39% | 17% |
| Deflationary | 34.6% | 30.1% | 4.5% | 11.5% | 18% | 6% |
| Epistemic | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 18% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 196
Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Conceivable but not metaphysically possible | 41.0% | 47.5% | -6.5% | 15.3% | 30% | 10% |
| Metaphysically possible | 36.5% | 31.1% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 24% | 11% |
| Inconceivable | 22.5% | 21.4% | 1.1% | 9.5% | 7% | 3% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 177
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