The PhilPapers SurveysPreliminary Metasurvey results (Back to contents)
Note: |error| = absolute error
A priori knowledge: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 54.5% | 71.1% | -16.6% | 22.0% | 50% | 25% |
| No | 29.3% | 18.4% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 25% | 13% |
| Other | 16.3% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 8% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 24
Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Nominalism | 46.6% | 37.7% | 8.9% | 19.4% | 37% | 26% |
| Platonism | 32.3% | 39.3% | -7.0% | 15.7% | 42% | 5% |
| Other | 21.2% | 23.0% | -1.8% | 15.6% | 21% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 19
Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Subjective | 60.7% | 34.5% | 26.2% | 29.9% | 71% | 57% |
| Objective | 20.7% | 41.0% | -20.4% | 20.4% | 52% | 33% |
| Other | 18.6% | 24.5% | -5.9% | 17.5% | 29% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 21
Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Yes | 47.4% | 64.9% | -17.5% | 20.6% | 48% | 22% |
| No | 35.2% | 27.1% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 26% | 17% |
| Other | 17.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 13% | 13% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 23
Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 42.7% | 42.7% | -0.0% | 12.6% | 16% | 0% |
| Internalism | 36.8% | 26.4% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 26% | 11% |
| Other | 20.4% | 30.8% | -10.4% | 18.2% | 53% | 16% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 19
External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-skeptical realism | 68.5% | 81.6% | -13.1% | 15.2% | 32% | 9% |
| Other | 12.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 8.7% | 9% | 9% |
| Skepticism | 11.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5% | 0% |
| Idealism | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 22
Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Compatibilism | 49.1% | 59.1% | -10.0% | 17.1% | 43% | 5% |
| No free will | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 14% | 5% |
| Libertarianism | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 10% | 5% |
| Other | 14.5% | 14.9% | -0.4% | 10.8% | 10% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 21
God: theism or atheism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Atheism | 72.9% | 72.8% | 0.1% | 10.8% | 12% | 4% |
| Theism | 19.3% | 14.6% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 8% | 4% |
| Other | 7.8% | 12.6% | -4.7% | 8.9% | 0% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 25
Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Contextualism | 34.2% | 40.1% | -5.8% | 13.0% | 22% | 6% |
| Invariantism | 31.2% | 31.1% | 0.1% | 11.4% | 11% | 6% |
| Other | 19.7% | 25.9% | -6.2% | 17.8% | 39% | 6% |
| Relativism | 14.8% | 2.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 17% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 18
Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Empiricism | 52.8% | 35.0% | 17.8% | 19.1% | 35% | 17% |
| Rationalism | 29.7% | 27.8% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 9% | 4% |
| Other | 17.5% | 37.2% | -19.7% | 21.7% | 57% | 17% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 23
Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Non-Humean | 38.9% | 57.1% | -18.2% | 20.3% | 41% | 29% |
| Humean | 38.4% | 24.7% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 29% | 12% |
| Other | 22.6% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 16.1% | 29% | 6% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 17
Logic: classical or non-classical?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Classical | 58.2% | 51.6% | 6.7% | 19.2% | 47% | 16% |
| Non-classical | 27.5% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 32% | 11% |
| Other | 14.3% | 33.1% | -18.8% | 21.6% | 63% | 21% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 19
Mental content: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Externalism | 53.9% | 51.1% | 2.7% | 14.0% | 19% | 10% |
| Internalism | 27.1% | 20.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 19% | 0% |
| Other | 19.0% | 28.9% | -9.8% | 17.8% | 33% | 10% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 21
Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Moral realism | 42.5% | 56.4% | -13.9% | 15.7% | 44% | 8% |
| Moral anti-realism | 38.2% | 27.7% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 28% | 12% |
| Other | 19.3% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 12% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 25
Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Naturalism | 58.0% | 49.8% | 8.2% | 18.2% | 43% | 22% |
| Non-naturalism | 27.1% | 25.9% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 13% | 9% |
| Other | 14.9% | 24.3% | -9.4% | 15.3% | 26% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 23
Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Physicalism | 58.9% | 56.5% | 2.4% | 16.2% | 29% | 14% |
| Non-physicalism | 27.0% | 27.1% | -0.1% | 11.3% | 10% | 5% |
| Other | 14.2% | 16.4% | -2.2% | 10.9% | 10% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 21
Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Cognitivism | 53.6% | 65.7% | -12.2% | 14.7% | 28% | 12% |
| Non-cognitivism | 29.3% | 17.0% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 12% | 8% |
| Other | 17.2% | 17.3% | -0.1% | 9.7% | 8% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 25
Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Internalism | 42.4% | 34.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 26% | 13% |
| Externalism | 36.2% | 29.8% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 26% | 4% |
| Other | 21.4% | 35.3% | -13.9% | 19.1% | 48% | 17% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 23
Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Two boxes | 46.5% | 31.4% | 15.1% | 18.0% | 28% | 17% |
| One box | 32.3% | 21.3% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 28% | 11% |
| Other | 21.2% | 47.4% | -26.1% | 28.7% | 78% | 39% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 18
Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Consequentialism | 38.5% | 23.6% | 14.8% | 16.4% | 28% | 8% |
| Deontology | 28.9% | 25.9% | 3.0% | 9.7% | 4% | 0% |
| Virtue ethics | 16.5% | 18.2% | -1.7% | 6.0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 16.1% | 32.3% | -16.2% | 21.0% | 64% | 16% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 25
Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Representationalism | 28.9% | 31.5% | -2.5% | 13.1% | 25% | 6% |
| Other | 22.8% | 42.2% | -19.4% | 23.0% | 75% | 25% |
| Qualia theory | 19.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 13% | 13% |
| Disjunctivism | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6% | 0% |
| Sense-datum theory | 11.6% | 3.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 13% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 16
Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Psychological view | 39.4% | 33.6% | 5.8% | 13.2% | 29% | 10% |
| Biological view | 25.1% | 16.9% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10% | 5% |
| Other | 20.9% | 37.3% | -16.4% | 23.7% | 62% | 33% |
| Further-fact view | 14.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 0% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 21
Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Egalitarianism | 44.9% | 34.8% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 36% | 9% |
| Communitarianism | 20.0% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 14% | 5% |
| Libertarianism | 18.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 18% | 5% |
| Other | 17.0% | 41.0% | -24.0% | 24.4% | 73% | 41% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 22
Proper names: Fregean or Millian?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Millian | 43.1% | 34.5% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 32% | 16% |
| Fregean | 32.6% | 28.7% | 3.9% | 14.5% | 37% | 21% |
| Other | 24.3% | 36.8% | -12.5% | 21.7% | 53% | 37% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 19
Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Scientific realism | 57.1% | 75.1% | -18.0% | 20.2% | 41% | 32% |
| Scientific anti-realism | 25.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 27% | 5% |
| Other | 17.2% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 10.5% | 14% | 5% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 22
Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Survival | 43.2% | 36.2% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 30% | 15% |
| Death | 40.2% | 31.1% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 25% | 10% |
| Other | 16.7% | 32.7% | -16.0% | 18.4% | 45% | 15% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 20
Time: A-theory or B-theory?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| B-theory | 37.7% | 26.3% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 30% | 20% |
| A-theory | 32.6% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 17.2% | 30% | 10% |
| Other | 29.7% | 58.2% | -28.5% | 30.9% | 60% | 50% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 10
Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Switch | 58.4% | 68.2% | -9.8% | 20.1% | 48% | 28% |
| Other | 21.0% | 24.2% | -3.1% | 14.4% | 28% | 4% |
| Don't switch | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 14.5% | 28% | 8% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 25
Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Correspondence | 38.4% | 50.8% | -12.4% | 15.4% | 48% | 13% |
| Deflationary | 29.7% | 24.8% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 22% | 0% |
| Other | 17.4% | 17.5% | -0.1% | 10.7% | 9% | 9% |
| Epistemic | 14.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 17% | 4% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 23
Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?
| Option | Mean estimate | Actual | Mean error | Mean |error| | |error| >= 20% | |error| >= 30% |
| Conceivable but not metaphysically possible | 30.7% | 35.6% | -4.8% | 15.8% | 24% | 12% |
| Metaphysically possible | 29.2% | 23.3% | 5.9% | 12.7% | 24% | 0% |
| Inconceivable | 20.7% | 16.0% | 4.7% | 10.0% | 6% | 6% |
| Other | 19.4% | 25.1% | -5.7% | 13.6% | 29% | 0% |
Sample size (non-skipped): 17
|
Back to contents |
