International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 1 Integrated DPSIR-ANP-SD framework for Sustainability Assessment of Water Resources System in Egypt M. Siwailam 1 , H. Abdelsalam 2 and M. Saleh 3 1National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), Cairo, Egypt 2,3Operations Research and Decision Support Department, Faculty of Computers and Information, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt 1Sewailam2003@yahoo.com, 2h.abdelsalam@fci-cu.edu.eg, 3m.saleh@fci-cu.edu.eg Abstract: Nowadays fresh water severe scarcity is a global concern and it is alarming for the future. In order to fully understand the progress of the water system and its impacts, a sustainability assessment of water resources is needed. This accelerates the achievement of sustainability and management of water resources. This work aims to assess the sustainability of the water resources system by applying the integration approach proposed by (Xu, 2011). This integration approach is based on integrating the DPSIR-ANP method to the System Dynamics (SD) model, which is considered as a unique work in water resources management field. SD is a computer simulation model to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time, while Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a decision finding method used in model complex decision problems which contains feedback connections and loops. DPSIR is an analytical framework for describing the interactions between the economy, society and the environment. This integrated approach enables decision makers to view the sustainability problems of water resources system more comprehensively. The results showed that there is an increasing impact on the sustainability of water resources systems in Egypt over the research period. This is attributed to the increase in water resources consumption due to the increase in population, agriculture expansion and an increase in the value of GDP. So, the officials for managing water resources in Egypt should take actions to increase the efficiency of water use and increasing the renewable water resources for compensating water shortage. Keywords- Water resources; Sustainability assessment; System Dynamics; ANP; DPSIR framework; Egypt 1. INTRODUCTION Water is the most vital natural resource on Earth after air where its quantities almost constant. It is essential to humans, plants, and animals to keep alive. In addition, it is important for the ecological balance of the earth. It covers 71% of the Earth's surface. Also, it frames 75% and 80% of human body weight and total composition of most vegetables respectively. In addition, water shortage or pollution cause 80% of diseases pervasive all over the world. Thus, water needs and the development process are inseparable, as the quantity of water used per day indicates human civilization and progress. (State Information Service, 2017). Nowadays severe water scarcity is a global concern and it is alarming for the future. On the demand side, the rapid growth of population and the fast development of economy worldwide have compelled on higher water demand. On the supply side, less predictable rainfall due to climate change causes less reliability of natural water sources (Xi and Poh, 2013). Sustainable water management needs innovative practices of water management, to balance water needs and water availability in the different water sectors, meanwhile to provide good quality and sufficient water in the present and future (Xi and Poh, 2013). The overview of the sustainable management of water resources is necessary because it can consolidate socio-economic and environmental themes into the management of all water resources processes (Sun et al., 2016). Water is the backbone for sustainable and integrated development in Egypt. Water resources in Egypt are the quota of Nile water, drainage water, the limit amount of rainfall, wastewater treatment, and desalination of seawater. The water demand has duplicated as a result of population growth, agricultural extension, tourist uses as well as industrial development and a rise in the standard of living. Egypt's portion of Nile water is 55.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) represents 95% of Egypt's total amount of water. Egypt highly depends on Nile water because the rainfall is rare. The per capita share of water in Egypt is 690 cubic meters which are below the water poverty line (1000 cubic meters) (Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), 2013, P.22). It is going to be reduced in the coming years as a result of the increasing population. In the coming years, Egypt will suffer from serious water shortage and water quality degradation, which results from the population growth and the economic and agricultural expansion. Moreover, disputes about the share of each Nile basin state in water and building Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (Millennium dam) increase water crisis (Soliman et al., 2016; MIT's Abdul Latif Jameel World Water and Food Security Lab, 2014; Amer, 2013; Telegraph foreign-staff, 2017). Thus, the officials of water resources International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 2 management in Egypt need to know the optimal allocation of limited water resources. This research aims to appraise the sustainability of the water resources system. An integrated approach based on DPSIRANP method and SD model proposed by (Xu, 2011) was applied. This approach identifies the interrelationship between different factors of a water problem. It enables decision-makers to investigate the sustainability problems of water resources system at present and in the future. 2. BACKGROUND The modeling of water resources that can serve as a decision support system tool is very important in the planning and management of water within the boundaries of states and abroad. It can support the analysis and evaluations of projects concerning with water resources, where it is useful in visualizing and predicting the changes in water supply and demand over time. Modeling of sustainable water resources management can be conducted by different methods; such as using System Dynamic Simulation Modeling (Xi and Poh, 2013; Adamowski and Halbe, 2011; Zhang et al., 2009; Duran-Encalada et al., 2017; Kotir et al., 2016), Expert Knowledge (Safavi et al., 2015), Fuzzy Logic (Sharma et al., 2012; Raju and Kumar, 2003), Mathematical Programming (Afify, 2010; Georgakakos, 2012; Anyata et al., 2014), the Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (Guo et al., 2010), DPSIR Approach (Sun et al., 2016). Xi and Poh (2013) developed an SD model called Singapore Water to demonstrate that SD is a powerful decision support technique to help achieve sustainable water resource management in Singapore. Zhang et al. (2009) developed a dynamic model based on water resources carrying capacity theory for water resource management using the SD technique. Among all possible desalination alternatives for Egypt, considering sites of the plants, their capacity, sources of feed water, the consumption of desalinated water, and the desalination technology, Afify (2010) used Multi-criteria Decision Analysis for ranking and selection. Georgakakos (2012) used linear programming to formulate the objective functions and constraints of water allocation problem to assist Castaic Lake Water Agency with decisions to meet annual water demands. Anyata et al. (2014) applied a mathematical model of discrete dynamic programming problem for forecasting the water demand, water uses, and net benefit of the conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources at the University of Benin, Benin City, Edo state, Nigeria. (Xi and Poh, 2014) Proposed an innovative approach from integrated SD and named Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for quantifying the priorities of various development plans to augment water supply in Singapore. (Razavi Toosi and Samani, 2012) using the ANP for ranking ten water transfer projects in Karun River-Iran. (Sun et al., 2016) designed an indicator framework based on the DPSIR model and AHP method to assess the sustainability of water resource systems in the city of Bayannur, China. As a summary, the different methods stated above could offer useful tools for sustainability assessment of the water resources system. Also, previous works not considering predicting the water resources in the future, sustainability aspects, and assesses the sustainability of water resources in one approach. So, this research will conduct the sustainability assessment of the water resources system using an integrated approach based on DPSIR-ANP method and the SD method. DPSIR is an analytical framework for describing the interactions between the economy, society and the environment, while ANP is a method accepted and widely used in the appraisal of the decision-making process with variable comparison and feedback. SD is a computer simulation model to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. The advantages of using such an approach are the following: 1From using the outcomes of the SD model, the decision makers will enable to investigate water resources problem and achieve the optimal allocation of limited water resources. 2Evaluating the sustainability of water resources with Multi-temporal data and showing feedback between different variables. 3Multi-temporal data will be used to figure out the dynamic changes in water resources. 4Multiple stakeholders share in building participatory dynamic modelling framework. 5The integrated approach enables decision policers to view the sustainability problems of water resources system more comprehensively. Moreover, a real case study of the sustainable water resources system in Egypt will be considered in the research. This paper develops a subsystem diagram of water resources management in Egypt based on previous researchers, studies and experts, mainly (Xi and Poh, 2013), (Zhang et al., 2009) and (MWRI, 2013). The configuration of this subsystem involves 4 major subsystems and minor 7 subsystems as shown in Fig. 1. The major subsystems are water demand, water supply, water uses and water surplus/shortage. Water demand determines the quantity of water that Egypt needs per year. Water supply determines the quantity of water available annually. Water uses to define the amount of water uses yearly. Finally, water surplus/shortage shows the abundance or deficits of water per year. When there are some deficits in water, the government should increase the funding for the water sector to build more wastewater and desalination water plants. Also, the increase in GDP leads to an increase in economic activities and standard of living, thus increasing the water demands. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 3 Water Demand Domestic WD Agriculture WD Population Industry WD Water Uses Gov. Funding for Water Sector Water Surplus/ Shortage Economic Activities (GDP) Water Supply Reclaimed Lands Fig. 1. Subsystem diagram for water resources management in Egypt. 3. METHODOLOGY The methodology of this work is based on an integration approach proposed by (Xu, 2011). It is built on identifying indicators of sustainable assessment of water resources system, determine the weight of each indicator using ANP method, building SD model, and calculate the sustainable index. Fig. 2 represents the methodology flowchart. Calculate Sustainable Index Building SD Model Determine Weight of each Indicator Using ANP Method Determine indicators of sustainable assessment for water resources systems under DSPIR framework Prepare the pairwise Comparisons Matrix Fig. 2. Methodology flowchart of the integrated approach (Adopted from (Xu, 2011)) 3.1 DPSIR Framework Out of the Pressure-State -Response (PSR) framework the DPSIR framework originated. The PSR was established by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development and then adopted by the European environment agency. It organizes the indicators according to the cause-effect schema under the following categories: Driver Forces, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response. DPSIR is instrumental for describing the interactions between the socio-economic and environmental sectors. Also, it's investigating framework to clarify the complexities of the system relations in sustainable development. DPSIR framework is a widely approach using for sustainable assessment of water resources systems (Zhao and Bottero, 2009; Kristensen, 2004; Pires et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2016). The evaluation framework for sustainable water resources management in Egypt is based on the DPSIR approach (Fig. 3). The driving forces index reflects the effects of changes in the agriculture area, population, GDP, and per capita GDP on sustainable water resource development. The per capita GDP can be used for reveals the standard of living in the Egyptian country. The pressure index indicates the factors which cause changes in the water system and act on the water resource system, and it is caused by the influence of the driver. In this study, the pressure index indicates the need for water resources and it impacts on the water quantity. It includes changes of agriculture water demand, changes of domestic water demand, changes of industrial water demand, and total water withdrawal. The state index refers to the state of the water system under the pressure of the driver. The state of the water system in this research includes water availability, and water adequacy index. The impact refers to the changes in the water system caused by the driving forces and pressure and contains the quality and quantity of water. These impacts include deficits in the amount of water availability Water Shortage), and salinization in the cultivated area. Finally, response denotes to the different measures adopted during the process of development and utilization of the water resource to warranty higher efficiency and sustainability of national water resources system. The response measures in this research include the following: wastewater treatment, desalination water, and elimination of subsidies water prices. Pressure Changes of Agr . Water Demand Changes of Domestic Water Demand Changes of Industry Water Demand Total Water Withdrawal Driving Forces Change in agriculture area Change in total population GDP annual rate of change Per capital GDP Impact Water shortage Salinization State Water Availability Water Adequacy Index Response Wastewater treatment Desalination Water Elimination of subsidies water prices Fig. 3. DPSIR framework for water resources management in Egypt 3.2 ANP Method The Analytic Network Process (ANP) proposed by Saati in 1999 and built on AHP. ANP is a decision finding method and is a more general of the AHP. It is considering the dependence and the interaction between the elements of the hierarchy (Piantanakulchai, 2005; Saaty, 1999). Therefore, ANP is represented by a network, rather than a hierarchy. Elements, clusters, and relationships compose the ANP International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 4 network structure. The elements (nodes) in a cluster may influence some or all of the elements in another cluster. The ANP method is used to determine the weight of each indicator. The following subsection describes the stages of a developed ANP model. 3.2.1 Problem Structuring In this research, the clusters in ANP network corresponds to the five categories of DPSIR framework framework which are Driving Forces (D), Pressure (P), State (S), Impact (I) and Response (R), as shown in Fig. 3. The elements in each cluster refer to the sustainability indicators of water resources system. The cluster and the Indicators considered in this study are represented in table 1. Table 1: Clusters and elements of the ANP model Cluster elements Driving Forces (D) D1Change in the agriculture area D2Change in total population D3GDP annual rate of change D4Per capita GDP Pressure (P) P1Changes of Agr. Water Demand P2Changes of Domestic Water Demand P3Changes of Industry Water Demand P4Total Water Withdrawal State (S) S1Water Availability S2Water Adequacy Index Impact (I) I1Water shortage I2Salinization Response ( R ) R1Wastewater treatment R2Desalination Water R3Elimination of subsidies water prices 3.2.2 Pairwise Comparison Matrices and Priority Vectors In this step, In this step, a series of pairwise comparisons are made to conform to the relative importance of the different elements. In pairwise comparisons, a ratio scale of 1-9 used to compare any two elements as represented in table 2. Table 3 gives an example of the pairwise comparison matrix. Table 2: The fundamental scale for pairwise comparisons Value Definition Explanation 1 Equal importance Two elements of decision similarly impact to the objective. 3 Moderate importance One element of decision is moderately more affecting than the other. 5 Strong importance One element of decision has a strong impact than the other. 7 Very strong importance One element of decision has a very strong impact than the other. 9 Extreme importance The difference between the impacts of the two elements to the objective is highly significant. 2,4,6,8 Judgment values between equal, moderate, strong, very stronge and extreme importance. Table 3: Change in agriculture area (D1) with respect to pressure criteria D1 P1 P2 P3 P4 Priority P1 1.00 3.00 5.00 0.33 0.26 P2 0.33 1.00 3.00 0.20 0.12 P3 0.20 0.33 1.00 0.14 0.06 P6 3.00 5.00 7.00 1.00 0.56 1.00 3.2.3 Supermatrix Formation The supermatrix (table 4) is constructed with priority vectors obtained from all comparison matrices. The supermatrix is a 15×15 elements matrix composed of a 5×5 clusters matrix (blocks). The local priority vectors of element comparison form the initial supermatrix (unweighted supermatrix). After formulating the initial supermatrix, the sum of each column of the matrix normalized to formulate weighted supermatrix (table 5). International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 5 Table 4: Initial matrix (unweighted Supermatrix) D1 D2 D3 D4 P1 P2 P3 P4 S1 S2 I1 I2 R1 R2 R3 D1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.08 0.05 0.39 D2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.40 0.50 0.46 D3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.27 0.07 D4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.16 0.17 0.07 P1 0.26 0.11 0.08 0.16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.06 0.07 0.20 P2 0.12 0.43 0.26 0.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.27 0.20 P3 0.06 0.06 0.16 0.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.13 0.18 P4 0.56 0.40 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.47 0.53 0.43 S1 0 0 0 0 0.17 0.25 0.25 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.25 S2 0 0 0 0 0.83 0.75 0.75 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.75 0.75 0.75 I1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.17 0 0 0.83 0.83 0.88 I2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.75 0.83 0 0 0.17 0.17 0.13 R1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.65 0.58 0 0 0 R2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.12 0.11 0 0 0 R3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.23 0.31 0 0 0 Table 5: Weighted Supermatrix D1 D2 D3 D4 P1 P2 P3 P4 S1 S2 I1 I2 R1 R2 R3 D1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.021 0.013 0.098 D2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.126 0.116 D3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.089 0.069 0.018 D4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0.042 0.018 P1 0.263 0.111 0.077 0.159 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.015 0.016 0.049 P2 0.122 0.431 0.263 0.077 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.09 0.068 0.049 P3 0.057 0.059 0.159 0.263 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.028 0.033 0.044 P4 0.558 0.399 0.501 0.501 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.117 0.133 0.108 S1 0 0 0 0 0.167 0.25 0.25 0.25 0 0 0 0 0.063 0.063 0.063 S2 0 0 0 0 0.833 0.75 0.75 0.75 0 0 0 0 0.188 0.188 0.188 I1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.167 0 0 0.208 0.208 0.219 I2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.75 0.833 0 0 0.042 0.042 0.031 R1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.648 0.581 0 0 0 R2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.122 0.11 0 0 0 R3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.23 0.309 0 0 0 3.2.4 Find priorities For obtaining the global priority vector, the weighted supermatrix raises to limiting powers to form the limited supermatrix (table 6). Table 7 shows the final priority deriving from limited supermatrix. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 6 Table 6: Limited Supermatrix D1 D2 D3 D4 P1 P2 P3 P4 S1 S2 I1 I2 R1 R2 R3 D1 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 D2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 D3 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 D4 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 P1 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 P2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 P3 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 P4 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 S1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 S2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 I1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 I2 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 R1 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 R2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 R3 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 Table 7: Final priority Cluster Elements Priority Value Driving Forces (D) D1Change in the agriculture area 0.01 D2Change in total population 0.03 D3GDP annual rate of change 0.02 D4Per capita GDP 0.01 Pressure (P) P1Changes of Agr. Water Demand 0.02 P2Changes of Domestic Water Demand 0.04 PChanges of Industry Water Demand 0.02 P4Total Water Withdrawal 0.07 State (S) S1Water Availability 0.05 S2Water Adequacy Index 0.16 Impact (I) I1Water shortage 0.1 I2Salinization 0.19 Response ( R ) R1Wastewater treatment 0.17 R2Desalination Water 0.03 R3Elimination of subsidies water prices 0.08 3.3 Simulation Modeling The developed model is a dynamic model for sustainable water resource management in Egypt. The authors use the system dynamic modeling software "Powersim" for developing the model. It is a simulation software based on the system dynamics technique for providing the modelers with higher capabilities to make complex business simulators. Fig. 4 shows the flowchart of the steps to build a simulation model. The presented model applies SD as a decision support tool to help achieve sustainable water management in Egypt and analyze the long-term impacts of various investment plans. In addition, the model presents the feedback between various variables. Make pilot runs Collect data Construct Causal Loop Diagram(CLD) Yes Causal loop Diagram Valid? Develop a simulation model Simulation model Valid? Analyze output data Yes No No Problem definition Identify model variables Fig. 4. Flowchart of building a simulation model. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 7 The authors collected the required data from the year 2004 to 2015. The data were collected from different sources (e.g. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS, 2009-2017, 3102; Planning ministry, 2016; Trading Economics, 2016). The elements of system dynamics are feedback loops (Causal loop diagram), accumulation of flows into stocks and time delays. Fig. 5 shows an example of Causal loop diagrams which presented in the model. In order to use the causal loop diagrams, a stock and flow diagram need to be developed for building a simulation model. Fig. 6 shows an example of the stock and flow diagrams which is presented in the model. + R1 Water Demand for Domestic Uses Water Demand Water Demand of Domestic Uses Population Economic Activities (GDP) Water Supply Water Adequacy Index Gov. Funding for Water Sector Capacity of Desalination water/ Wastewater Plants + + + - - + + Fig. 5. Water demand for domestic uses loop Latitude Water_EvaporationEff_of_GDP_on_Industry_WD Domestic_WD Standard_Of_Living Normalized_Population Agriculture_WD Normal_Agriculture_WD Reclaimed_Lands Elevation Eff_of_Reclaimed_Lands_on_Agri_WD Normalized_GDP Normalized_GDP Elasticity_GDP_on_Standard_of_Livng Normal_Industry_WD Normal_Domestic_WD Normalized_Reclaimed_Lands Normal_Standard_of_Living Eff_of_Population_on_Domestic_WD R_ann Mean_Temperature R Elasticity_Value_of_GDP_on_Ind_WD Water_Demand Industry_WD Elasticity_value_of_Pop_on_D_WD Elasticity_of_Standard_Of_Living_on_Domestic_WD Elicticity_value_of_SL_on_D_WD Elasticity_value_of_RL_on_Agr_WD Elicticity_value_of_GDP_on_SL Fig. 6. Stock and flow diagram of water demand 3.3.1 SD Model Outputs The model was constructed to interpret and simulate water demand, supply, and uses in Egypt. The model was run from the year 2004 to 2035. The outcomes are presented (Figs. 7-12).The results showed that Egypt's population would increase from about 69 million in the year 2004 to 160 million in the year 2035 as shown in Fig. 7. This increase leads to rising domestic water demand per year from about 5.6 billion in the year 2004 reaching 18.9 billion in the year 2035 as indicated in Fig. 8. The increase in population requires increasing agricultural land, establishing new factories, and expanding services and therefore increasing demand for water. Also, this increase in population leads to increasing total water demand from about 73.1 billion in the year 2004 to 93.84 billion in the year 2035 as shown in Fig. 8. Fig. 8 shows that the agriculture sector represents the largest share (82 %) of water demand in Egypt between the different sectors. Fig. 9 represents the water resources in Egypt. This Figure indicates that all water resources seemfixed except for agricultural drainage water that expected to increase from about 4.8 billion in the year 2004 to 23.68 billion in the year 2035. This means that officials should find unconventional ways to increase the amount of water available. From analyzing the results of water demand and water supply, the authors found that there is a water shortage, thus inadequacy in water as indicated in Fig. 10 and 11. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 8 As shown in Fig. 12, the water withdrawal (uses) incremental over time. This increase results from the rapidly growing population, the agricultural extension uses as well as industrial development and a rise in the standard of living. Fig. 7. Egypt's population Fig. 8. Water demand Fig. 9. Water resources Fig. 10. Water shortage Fig. 11. Water Adequacy Index Figure 12. Water withdrawal (Uses) Fig. 12. Water withdrawal (Uses) 3.4 Sustainability Assessment Of Water Resources System Sustainable water resource systems are those designed and managed to best serve people living in the future as well as International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 9 those of us living today. The goal of sustainability assessment is to pursue that plans and activities make an optimal contribution to sustainable development. So, there are needing to have an index to show the sustainability degree. The following equations depict how computing the sustainability index (Xu, 2011): 1The standard value of each indicator ( . (1) Where is the index value of the ith indicator in jth year. m means the number of the indicators in the model, and n points out the sample years considered. In this study m= 15 and n=31 (from 2005-2035). is the standardization index value of index , min means the minimum value of ith index in the sample period, max , means the maximum value of ith index in the sample period. 2Sustainability index of each layer (category) ∑ . (2) Where is the value of sustainability index of the subsystem layer (category) in jth year, i.e. "Pressure", "State", "Impact" and "Response". is the weight of ith index (Table 7). p and q refer to the indicators involved in the subsystem. 3Sustainability index of the system ∑ (3) Zj is the final value of sustainability index of the system in jth year which index obtained from the value of the Driving Forces, Pressure, State, Impact and Response categories. is the standard index value of the ith indicator in jth year. wi is the weight of ith index, m is the number of indicators in the model, n=31 here which indicates the years considered from 2005 to 2035. 4. RESULTS The identification and analysis of the five overall indexes in the DPSIR are depended on the weight of each indicator. The DPSIR categories and sustainability index of water resources systems (WRS) in Egypt are shown in Figs. (1318) as a line chart. 4.1 Driving Forces Index The driving forces index of water uses increased overall the research period (Fig. 13) because of population growth, an increase in the area of cultivated land, economic activities, and an increase in living standards of the inhabitants. This point out an increase in driving forces for Egyptian water consumption because of socio-economic development and a change in housing consumption. Fig. 13. Driving forces index of WRS in Egypt 4.2 Pressure Index Fig. 14. Pressure index of WRS in Egypt The pressure on water systems increased during the study period because of the increase in the driver indicators. The water resources system faced pressure due to the increase in water demand of domestic uses, agriculture, and industry (Fig. 14). 4.3 State index Fig. 15; represents the changes in the state of water resources over time. The figure indicates an increasing trend in the first 8 years while decreasing in the following period. This increase occurs due to an increase in the amount of water availability which resulting from agriculture drainage reuse, while the decrease in the following period is related to increasing pressure on water resources. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 10 Fig. 15. State index of WRS in Egypt 4.4 Impact index Driver and pressure have a significant influence on water resource systems. The impact indicators of the water system increased in most of the time during the study period (Fig. 16). This is attributed to the gap between water demand and water availability, and the increase in the rate of salinization. Fig. 16. Impact index of WRS in Egypt 4.4 Response index As indicated in Fig. 17, there is an incremental change in response over time. This is attributed to the measures that were taken by officials. These measures are increasing the capacity of wastewater plants, and elimination of subsidies water prices. Fig. 17. Response index of WRS in Egypt 4.5 Sustainability Index Fig. 18. Sustainability index of WRS in Egypt Generally, there is an increasing impact on the sustainability of water resources systems in Egypt over the research period (Fig. 18). This is attributed to the increase in water resources consumption due to the increase in population, agriculture expansion and an increase in the value of GDP. At the same time, the response measures taken to increase the amount of water availability. Finally, the officials for managing water resources in Egypt should take actions to increase the efficiency of water use and increasing the renewable water resources for compensating the gap between water demand and water supply. Fig. 19, shows changes of DPSIR categories and sustainability index of WRS in Egypt over time in one graph. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 11 Fig. 19. DPSIR Categories and sustainability index of WRS in Egypt 5. CONCLUSION Sustainability evaluations of international/ local water resources help to realize the evolution of the water system and its impacts. This accelerates the achievement of sustainability and management of water resources. This kind of evaluations is necessary as it guarantees the combination of socio-economic and environmental themes into all aspects of water resources management (Sun et al., 2016). To assess the sustainability of water resources systems, this research is applying an integrated approach was developed by (Xu, 2011). It is built on using DPSIR-ANP method and the SD model. This integrated approach enables decision makers to view the sustainability problems of water resources system more comprehensively. The conclusion of applying the integrated approach to appraise sustainability in Egypt can be drawn as follows: There is an increase in the driving forces overall in the research period. This is attributed to population growth, an increase in the area of cultivated land, economic activities, and an increase in living standards of the inhabitants. Also, overall the study the pressure on the water system incremented, while the status of the water resources declined as a result of driving forces indicators increase. Water system impact indicators increased in most of the time during the study period. This is attributed to the gap between water demand and water availability, and the increase in the rate of salinization. The Egyptian government adopted a set of response measures to improve water use efficiency and increase the amount of water. The procedures are increasing the capacity of wastewater plants, and elimination of subsidies water prices. Finally, there is an increasing impact on the sustainability of water resources systems in Egypt over the research period. This is attributed to the increase in water resources consumption due to the increase in population, agriculture expansion and an increase in the value of GDP. So, the officials for managing water resources in Egypt should take actions to increase the efficiency of water use and increasing the renewable water resources for compensating the gap between water demand and water supply. 6. REFERENCES [1] Xu, Z. (2011). An ANP-SD model for the early warning analysis of sustainable resiential development. Fourth International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design, IEE, 55–58. [2] State Information Service, Egypt. (2017). Water resources. [Online] Available: http://www.sis.gov.eg/section/341/1345?lang=en-us [Accessed: 10 October 2017]. [3] Xi, X., Poh, K.L. (2013). Using system dynamics for sustainable water resources management in Singapore. Procedia Comput. Sci. 16, 57-166. [4] Sun, S., Wang, Y., Liu, J., Cai, H., Wu, P., Geng, Q., Xu, L. (2016). Sustainability assessment of regional water resources under the DPSIR framework. J. Hydrol. 532, 140–148. [5] Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. (2013). National water resources plan (Water strategy till the year 2017). Giza, Egypt. [6] Zhao, X., Bottero, M. (2009). Application of System Dynamics and DPSIR framework for sustainability assessment of urban residential areas. presented at Sustainable Community buildingSMART, September 2010. Espoo, Finland. [7] Kristensen, P. (2004). The DPSIR Framework. in: Workshop on a Comprehensive / Detailed Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Environmental Change in Africa Using River Basin Approach, Nairobi, Kenya. [8] Pires, A., Morato, J., Peixoto, H., Botero, V., Zuluaga, L., Figueroa, A. (2017). Sustainability Assessment of indicators for integrated water resources management. Sci. Total Environ. 578, 139–147. [9] Soliman, G., Soussa, H., El-Sayed, S. (2016). Assessment of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam impacts using decision support system. IOSR J. Comput. Eng. 18 (5), 08-18. [10] MIT's Abdul Latif Jameel World Water and Food Security Lab. (2014). The grand Ethiopian renaissance dam: An opportunity for collaboration and shared benefits in the eastern nile basin, The International, Non-partisan Eastern Nile Working Group, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved from: http://jwafs.mit.edu/sites/default/files/documents/GERD _2014_Full_Report.pdf. [11] Amer, A. (2013). Egypt, Ethiopia, and the new dam. Retrieved from http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/News/2878.aspx. Issue 1151. [12] Telegraph foreign-staff, 2017. Death nile: Egypt fears Ethiopian dam will cut water supply. [Online] Available: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/02/death-nileegypt-fearsethiopian-dam-will-cut-water-supply/ [Accessed: 10 December 2017]. [13] Adamowski, J., Halbe, J. (2011). Participatory water resources planning and management in an agriculturally intensive watershed in Quebec, Canada using stakeholder built system dynamics models. Ann. Warsaw Univ. Life Sci. – SGGW, L. Reclam. 43 (1), 3– 11. International Journal of Academic Management Science Research (IJAMSR) ISSN: 2000-001X Vol. 3 Issue 3, March – 2019, Pages: 1-12 www.ijeais.org/ijamsr 12 [14] Zhang, X., Feng, H., Mao, X., Zheng, M., Wang, R. (2009). A dynamic water resources management approach in Beijing using system dynamics model. 2009 Int. Conf. Manag. Serv. Sci. 1–4. [15] Duran-Encalada, J.A., Paucar-Caceres, A., Bandala, E.R., Wright, G.H. (2017). The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder region. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 256, 567-581. [16] Kotir, J.H., Smith, C., Brown, G., Marshall, N., Johnstone, R. (2016). A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana. Sci. Total Environ. 573, 444-457. [17] Safavi, H.R., Golmohammadi, M.H., Sandoval-Solis S. (2015). Expert knowledge based modeling for integrated water resources planning and management in the Zayandehrud River Basin. J. Hydrol. 528, 773-789. [18] Sharma, A., Mandlik, P., Deshpande, A., Yadav, J., Ladkat, P. (2012). Fuzzy logic application in water supply system management: A case study. 2012 Annu. Meet. North Am. Fuzzy Inf. Process. Soc. 1–4. [19] Raju, K.S., kumar, D.N. (2003). Participatory irrigation management using fuzzy logic. XI World Water Congr. Madrid, Spain. 1-7. [20] Afify, A. (2010). Prioritizing desalination strategies using multi-criteria decision analysis, Journal of Desalination. 250, 928–935. [21] Georgakakos, K.P. (2012). Water supply and demand sensitivities of linear programming solutions to a water allocation problem. Appl. Maths. 03, 1285-1297. [22] Anyata, B.U., Airiofolo, I.R., Abhulimen, I.U, Haruna, i.A., Unuigbe, A.I., Akpan, E.I., Osawe, E. (2014). Application of dynamic programming in water resources management: A case study of university of benin water supply system, ugbowo, edo state Nigeria. I. J. Res. Eng. Techno. 2 (9), 123-134. [23] Guo, L., Xiao, L., Tang, X., Hu, Z. (2010). Application of GIS and remote sensing techniques for water resources management. 2nd Conf. Environ. Sci. Inf. Appl. Techno. 738-741. [24] Xi, X., Poh, K.L. (2014). A Novel Integrated Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Singapore: Synergies Between System Dynamics and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Water Resour. Manag. 29, 1329–1350. [25] Razavi Toosi, S.L., Samani, J.M.V. (2012). Evaluating water transfer projects using analytic network process (ANP). Water Resour. Manag. 26, 1999–2014. [26] Piantanakulchai, M. (2005). Analytic Network Process Model for Highway Corridor. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. Anal. Hierarchy Process Multi-criteria Decis. Mak. July 8-10, 2005 Univ. Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. [27] Saaty, T.L. (1999). Fundamentals of the analytic network process. Proc. 5th Int. Symp. Anal. hierarchy Process. August 12-14, ISAHP '99 1–14. [28] Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. (2009-2017). Egypt in figures, Water Resources. Cairo, Egypt. [29] Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. (2013). Statistical yearbook 2013. Cairo, Egypt. [30] Planning Ministry. (2016). Total economic indicators for annual Egyptian economy and quarterly (Investments), Egypt. [31] Trading Economics (2016). Egypt GDP. [Online] Available:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/gdp.