Global Research Report – South and East Asia Jonathan Adams, David Pendlebury, Gordon Rogers & Dr Martin Szomszor Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science Group ISBN 978-1-9160868-5-2 2019 Global Research Report – South and East Asia Professor Jonathan Adams, David Pendlebury, Gordon Rogers & Dr Martin Szomszor 2 Author biographies Jonathan Adams is Director of the Institute for Scientific Information, a part of the Web of Science Group. He is also a Visiting Professor at King's College London, Policy Institute, and was awarded an Honorary D.Sc. in 2017 by the University of Exeter, for his work in higher education and research policy. Gordon Rogers is a Senior Data Scientist at the Institute for Scientific Information He has worked in the fields of bibliometrics and data analysis for the past 10 years, supporting clients around the world in evaluating their research portfolio and strategy. Martin Szomszor is Head of Research Analytics at the Institute for Scientific Information. He joined from Digital Science where, as Chief Data Scientist he applied his extensive knowledge of machine learning, data integration and visualization techniques to found the Global Research Identifier Database. He was named a 2015 top50 UK Information Age data leader for his work in creating the REF2014 impact case studies database for the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE). David Pendlebury is Head of Research Analysis at the Institute for Scientific Information, a part of Clarivate Analytics. Since 1983 he has used Web of Science data to study the structure and dynamics of research. He worked for many years with ISI founder Eugene Garfield. With Henry Small, David developed ISI's Essential Science Indicators. Foundational past, visionary future The Institute for Scientific Information ISI builds on the work of Dr. Eugene Garfield – the original founder and a pioneer of information science. Named after the company he founded – the forerunner of the Web of Science Group – ISI was re-established in 2018 and serves as a home for analytic expertise, guided by his legacy and adapted to respond to technological advancements. Our global team of industryrecognized experts focus on the development of existing and new bibliometric and analytical approaches, whilst fostering collaborations with partners and academic colleagues across the global research community. ISBN 978-1-9160868-5-2 Cover image: Jantar Mantar, Jaipur, India Today, as the 'university' of the Web of Science Group, ISI both: • Maintains the foundational knowledge and editorial rigor upon which the Web of Science index and its related products and services are built. Our robust evaluation and curation have been informed by research use and objective analysis for almost half a century. Selective, structured and complete data in the Web of Science provide rich insights into the contribution and value of the world's most impactful scientific and research journals. These expert insights enable researchers, publishers, editors, librarians and funders to explore the key drivers of a journal's value for diverse audiences, making better use of the wide body of data and metrics available. • Carries out research to sustain, extend and improve the knowledge base and disseminates that knowledge to our colleagues, partners and all those who deal with research in academia, corporations, funders, publishers and governments via our reports and publications and at events and conferences. 3 Global Research Report – S&E Asia In the development of our series of Global Research Reports, it has been our intention for some time to describe the state of the research base in Asia beyond the growing and well researched Asia-Pacific group that covers China, Japan and South Korea. This Global Research Report surveys an area described as South and East Asia (S&E Asia), which includes the ASEAN group of nations and extends to a wider network. The 14 countries examined here, from West to East, are: Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh plus the ASEAN states of Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, and the Philippines. The ASEAN regional forum includes 27 member states, including the EU and the USA, which are partners with but not embedded in the region. We recognize that definitions of regions differ and change and apologize to those who find ours unduly restrictive or too broad. S&E Asia countries differ markedly in geographical size, in population and in their economies. They nonetheless form an evident global region. They have historical relationships with former colonial powers in the European Union (EU) and contemporary alliances with states further North and South in the Pacific. They have deep roots in learning, culture and technology over millennia – Singapore has been recognized for 200 years as a crossroads in commerce and in ideas between the Indian and Pacific oceans. For some of the S&E Asia region, it is evident that many recent research achievements have been dependent on international links. Now, these countries are in an increasingly strong position to benefit from their own potential to grow through their national investments, through the emergence of a regional network and through their collaboration with partners in neighbouring regions. This report looks at all these characteristics. These countries are in an increasingly strong position to benefit from their own potential to grow Map 1. The South and East Asia countries under examination. 4 There have been few in-depth bibliometric studies of national activity and performance in S&E Asia. Papers published over the past decade have focused on the ASEAN members as a group or individual ASEAN member nations in specific research areas. Individual scientists from countries in S&E Asia have made significant contributions to research – but often while working in other countries. Historical levels of research investment have generally been lower than in Europe and the relative size of the researcher workforce has been small. In fact, the economic potential of the region is massive and could underpin a research network with global impact. India has been spoken of as a 'sleeping giant' of research and the opportunities that might be realized in Indonesia are also huge, as it too turns towards building greater capacity and improving quality in higher education and research. Already at hand, Singapore (with two of the world's 50 leading research universities) and Malaysia have well established research economies and Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam already have rapidly growing research profiles. (Table 1) It is important to note data for Category-Normalised Citation Impact (CNCI) in Table 1. This is an index that reflects a publication's academic impact using the number of times it is subsequently cited by later work. Because citation counts rise over time at a rate that is discipline-dependent, these counts are 'normalised' for the appropriate subject category and year of publication, and then an average is taken. The world average, as a reference benchmark, is always 1.0. Two figures are quoted in Table 1: CNCI-gross and CNCIdomestic. CNCI-gross refers to all the publications with at least one national address while CNCI-domestic is the data pool from which all publications with international co-authorship have been removed. This enables a comparison for the research impact of a country in its partnerships and standing alone. All countries, including the G7, have higher collaborative than domestic impact. For the S&E Asia nations, with the exception of Singapore, the impact gained through international collaboration is very substantial and it is this activity that lifts their average citation impact above world average. Moed (Moed and Halevi, 2015; Moed, 2016) has drawn attention to the need to interpret national scientometric indicators in the context of their evolving research development. This region contains very different stages of research development. For Singapore, international collaboration is just a part of national strategy: the outcome of researchers elsewhere collaborating with scientists in world leading institutions. For the smaller ASEAN nations, international collaboration forms the bulk of their high-performance research activity as their domestic research base builds up. Table 1. Descriptive statistics by country, ranked by annual publication output. CNCI is an index of research publication impact (where world average = 1.0, see text) and is expressed as gross (for the country as a whole) and domestic (for publications with only national authors) Source World Bank 2017 UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2017 Web of Science average for 2014-18 Population Thousands GDP current $US million GERD as % GDP Researchers per million population Publication output CNCI gross CNCI domestic Laos 7,169 18,131 0.04 16 1 179 1.23 0.44 Myanmar 54,045 71,215 0.16 15 203 2.13 0.61 Brunei 433 13,567 0.04 283 1 207 1.30 0.67 Cambodia 16,486 24,572 0.12 30 300 1.34 0.45 Sri Lanka 21,323 88,901 0.11 107 931 1.86 0.44 Philippines 108,117 330,910 0.14 188 1 1,438 1.46 0.39 Bangladesh 163,046 274,025 n/a n/a 2,092 1.27 0.55 Indonesia 270,626 1,042,173 0.08 89 1 2,462 1.19 0.52 Vietnam 96,462 244,948 0.44 672 3,766 1.20 0.67 Thailand 69,626 504,993 0.78 1,210 8,261 0.95 0.56 Pakistan 216,565 312,570 0.25 294 10,112 1.03 0.56 Malaysia 31,950 354,348 1.30 2,274 11,924 1.06 0.76 Singapore 5,804 364,157 2.16 6,730 13,916 1.64 1.28 India 1,366,420 2,726,323 0.62 216 66,400 0.86 0.68 GDP = gross domestic product, GERD = gross expenditure on research and development CNCI = average category normalised citation impact 1 = Researcher data for these countries is from sources more than five years old 5 Research capacity Research activity in South and East Asia has grown rapidly since 2000. From an annual regional total of about 12,000 papers (articles and reviews), output has risen ten-fold and now accounts for more than 8% of global publications every year. 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 Regional share of world output (%) Annual count of papers for region Figure 1. Regional growth of research in S&E Asia in numbers of publications (articles and reviews) and share of world output. Vietnam has increased its indexed publication volume more than five-fold since 2009 This regional growth is reflected at national level and it is pervasive. The region might best be considered as three groups plus India. The major research producers are India (around 75,000 papers per year) plus Singapore, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (more than 5,000 papers per year). These countries have roughly doubled in research output over the last decade. By far the fastest rate of growth in this group is that of Vietnam which has increased its indexed publication volume more than five-fold since 2009 and shows every sign of continuing expansion. Research growth for Thailand, which has the second largest economy in this group, has slowed compared to the others. (Figure 2) 6 The medium-sized research economies are Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, with 1,000-5,000 papers per year. The four nations with fewer than 500 papers per year are Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Brunei. The indicators for the smaller research economies remain very dependent on their involvement in international collaborations, but they too are expanding and all of these countries have more than doubled its output since 2009, which is a welcome sign. Myanmar which had been producing very little earlier in the 2000s demonstrates the fastest rate of growth. Indonesia – which surely has the resource capacity to become a major research nation – has increased its output nearly four-fold in ten years. Its location, increasing economic power and vast human resources give it the potential to become a significant regional research and technology hub.It is not by chance that the ASEAN group headquarters was established in Jakarta. These data demonstrate the extent of research development across the region but the disparities between population, wealth and research intensity shown in Table 1 also reflect unrealised potential for further development in many areas. That development must drive the infra-structure for higher education and research that is expected to lead to sustained growth in national knowledge capacity, reduce dependency on international partnerships and underpin technology innovation and economic competitiveness. Data later in this report will demonstrate that such dependency remains a worrying factor in some instances. Further development will require some re-iteration of research already performed elsewhere, in order to build training, understanding and capability. This may appear redundant, but without this recapitulation it will not be feasible to realise latent capacity and build a useful technological infrastructure for wholly independent research in the future. India -annual count of papers 15,000 10,000 5,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 O th er c ou nt rie s a nn ua l c ou nt o f p ap er s 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Pakistan Singapore India India -annual count of papers 15,000 10,000 5,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 O th er c ou nt rie s a nn ua l c ou nt o f p ap er s 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Pakistan Singapore India 3,000 2,000 1,000A nn ua l c ou nt o f p ap er s 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Laos Brunei Myanmar Philippines Bangladesh Indonesia Cambodia Sri Lanka 3,000 2,000 1,000A nn ua l c ou nt o f p ap er s 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Laos Brunei Myanmar Philippines Bangladesh Indonesia Cambodia Sri Lanka Figure 2. Annual publication output (articles and reviews) for major research producers in S&E Asia. Figure 3. Annual publication output (articles and reviews) for medium-sized and smaller research producers in S&E Asia. 7 International collaboration To visualize the regional collaboration network, we present two complementary views of the data that illustrate the strongest ties between nations, both within S&E Asia countries, and beyond. Collaboration is measured as the percentage of co-authored research papers (articles and reviews) indexed in the Web of Science, 2009-18 and is shown in two forms: as a collaboration network (Figure 4), and as a collaboration heat-map (Figure 5). The network gives an overall sense of the topology, with key external collaborators (USA, China and the UK) in the centre, linking the smaller nations to the largest research producing countries (India, Singapore, Malaysia and Pakistan) in the outer ring. The heat-map supplies more granular information and highlights similarities and differences in the collaboration patterns. For example, by looking at rows (countries that collaborate with S&E Asia) it is possible to identify that the UK and Australia have similar profiles, and that China and Japan are collaborating with different groups. Two S&E Asia countries stand apart from the main group in terms of their collaboration profile: India • India (left column, Figure 5) produces far fewer papers with international collaborators as a percentage of its total research output when compared to others. Sri Lanka • Sri Lanka (right column, Figure 5) has a much higher percentage of collaboration with many partners. This is due to a large number of massively co-authored papers published in High Energy Physics through participation in the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector collaboration and international groups that utilise data from the ATLAS project at CERN's Large Hadron Collider. Given Sri Lanka's total research output is relatively small otherwise, these publications have a substantial impact on the overall collaboration profile. International research links have become rich and complex. The research base in some S&E Asia countries has a long history of association with former colonial economies. They established higher education systems in the region and remain prominent research partners today. Examples are the UK's links to Malaysia, the Netherlands' links to Indonesia, and France's links to Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. The growth of collaboration is driven partly by the opportunity to use information networks and travel more easily to international conferences, partly by the number of international programmes and major international projects – notably in health, the environment and natural resources, and physics – and partly by the nature of contemporary research challenges that need to draw on global intellectual resources. A consequence of international collaboration is that the average domestic CNCI is less, and in these cases often much less, than the apparent national average CNCI (Table 1). A particular problem arises where there are highly multinational papers, such as epidemiology studies in medicine and fundamental particle physics. Authorship can run across dozens of countries in these instances as well as including scientists and practitioners in S&E Asia. There is as yet only limited evidence to demonstrate the regional network. The UK and Germany are linked to many of the countries and are at the centre of the network while the USA has very strong ties to all the larger research economies, though somewhat less to India than might be expected. A key feature is the role of neighbouring regional partners of which China is most central and where Australia, Japan and South Korea are evidently playing an important role. This suggests that a broader network combining S&E Asia, Asia-Pacific and Australasia is emerging. This will be a powerful counter-balance to the transAtlantic axis which has dominated global research for centuries. A broader network combining S&E Asia, Asia-Pacific and Australasia is emerging. This will be a powerful counterbalance to the trans-Atlantic axis 8 Figure 4. Network diagram of most frequent research collaborations for countries and regions in S&E Asia. Collaboration is indexed by the number of co-authored research papers (articles and reviews) indexed in the Web of Science, 2009-18. Each node represents a country and node size is proportional to the number of publications. Edges joining these nodes link a country to its ten most frequent collaborators. Edge thickness is proportional to the percentage of publications co-authored by the two countries. No data are shown for four small research economies (Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Brunei). Colors are used to group countries by region, as described in the figure legend. IT AU NL IN IR SA MY PK TR ID CA SG FR BD GB TH PH CN LK KR DEVN JP RU TW US South and East Asia Bangladesh (BD), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Malaysia (MY), Pakistan (PK), Philippines (PH), Sri Lanka (LK), Singapore (SG), Thailand (TH), Vietnam (VN) Continental Europe France (FR), Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Netherlands (NL), Russia (RU), Turkey (TR), United Kingdom (GB) Asia and Pacific Australia (AU), China Mainland (CN), Japan (JP), South Korea (KR), Taiwan (TW) North America Canada (CA), USA (US) Arab States Iran (IR), Saudi, Arabia (SA) 9 Figure 5. Heat-map of research collaboration for countries or regions in S&E Asia highlighting most frequent bilateral co-authorship for papers (articles and reviews) indexed in the Web of Science, 2009-18. The horizontal axis is ordered by publication output of the country in the region. The most frequent collaborators are listed on the vertical axis and ordered by volume of their total collaboration with countries in the region. Values in each cell display the percentage of papers for which there is co-authorship for the two relevant countries or regions. 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 93 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 73 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 72 4 0 0 5 1 0 1 1 82 1 1 3 2 2 2 4 4 52 2 0 2 1 2 9 2 4 31 4 0 2 2 2 4 0 7 81 4 0 0 3 1 1 3 1 90 0 1 0 4 1 1 3 1 59 1 0 1 2 0 5 2 6 91 4 1 3 2 4 5 1 5 83 9 0 3 5 3 3 5 7 133 3 0 1 0 3 11 9 6 104 2 2 3 2 3 5 6 7 105 11 2 3 2 4 8 4 7 104 7 1 3 5 10 20 14 14 81 11 1 7 6 5 14 9 11 162 9 1 23 5 6 5 5 11 1312 8 2 8 8 8 9 10 9 217 8 7 18 6 17 14 19 24 229 13USA United Kingdom China Mainland Australia Japan Germany South Korea Malaysia India France Thailand Saudi Arabia Pakistan Taiwan Netherlands Canada Iran Russia Turkey Italy Si ng ap or e M ala ys ia Pa kis tsa n Th ail an d Vi et na m In do ne sia Ba ng lad es h Ph ilip pi ne s Sr i L an ka In di a 10 Impact Profiles Research activity needs to be seen in the light of research quality. A widely-used indicator of research quality has been the CNCI index (Table 1). This is a quick reference guideline but, like all simple metrics, it necessarily absorbs and hides a great deal of information. To reveal that information we use Impact Profiles (see page 16, GRRI:Profiles, not metrics). Impact Profiles display the distribution of CNCI values of journal papers (here, for the ten-year window 2009-18). Papers are assigned to categories as either uncited, or cited less often than world average (down to half, less than half to one-quarter and so on), or cited more often (up to 2 times, 2-4 times and so on) than world average (Adams et al., 2007). In Figures 6 below, the uncited papers are shown as blocks and the cited papers as a smoothed curve from low to highly cited. Each country's data are shown in three curves plus a table. The three curves track: • The Impact Profile for all papers with at least one national address • The Impact Profile for the purely domestic papers with only national authors • The Impact Profile for those papers with one or more international co-authors. The table summarizes the numbers of papers used to calculate the curves and the total for the most recent full year. The average CNCI across the period and the CNCI for 2018 are also given for each set of papers. Figure 6. Impact Profiles for papers (articles and reviews) published during 2009-2018 by countries in S&E Asia. Papers in each analysis have at least one author address for the given country and are shown as national totals, papers with only national authors and papers with an international co-author. In reviewing an Impact Profile, attention should be paid to: the proportion of papers that remain uncited (even by their authors); the balance of papers cited less often than world average; the height and position of the peak of the curve; the balance of papers cited more often than world average; and the proportion of papers that are in the most highly-cited categories more than four and more than eight times world average. For detailed methodology see text. Impact Profiles display the distribution of CNCI values of journal papers 11 25% 20% 15% 10% 0 India Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI India Total India Domestic India International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 565,873 73,951 0.82 0.85 429,967 53,577 0.67 0.68 135,907 20,375 1.30 1.32 24 28 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Singapore Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Singapore Total Singapore Domestic Singapore International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 120,185 14,918 1.61 1.59 43,946 4,153 1.29 1.26 76,239 10,765 1.80 1.72 63 72 India Singapore 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Pakistan Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Pakistan Total Pakistan Domestic Pakistan International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 77,527 13,393 0.89 1.04 38,004 5,246 0.51 0.60 39,523 8,147 1.28 1.32 51 61 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Malaysia Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Malaysia Total Malaysia Domestic Malaysia International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 97,152 12,193 0.94 1.04 46,867 4,848 0.74 0.66 50,285 7,345 1.12 1.28 52 60 Pakistan Malaysia 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Thailand Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Thailand Total Thailand Domestic Thailand International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 70,937 9,448 0.93 0.94 34,162 4,356 0.62 0.53 36,775 5,092 1.23 1.29 52 54 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Vietnam Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Vietnam Total Vietnam Domestic Vietnam International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 26,742 5,457 1.09 1.09 5,859 1,155 0.62 0.68 20,883 4,302 1.22 1.19 78 79 Thailand Vietnam 12 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Philippines Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Philippines Total Philippines Domestic Philippines International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 11,964 1,622 1.31 1.40 3,432 413 0.38 0.44 8,532 1,209 1.69 1.73 71 75 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Cambodia Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Cambodia Total Cambodia Domestic Cambodia International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 2,351 350 1.38 0.93 106 12 0.56 0.00 2,245 338 1.42 0.97 95 97 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Indonesia Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Indonesia Total Indonesia Domestic Indonesia International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 18,625 3,350 1.11 0.87 3,411 791 0.52 0.45 15,214 2,559 1.23 1.00 82 76 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Sri Lanka Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Sri Lanka Total Sri Lanka Domestic Sri Lanka International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 7,178 1,132 1.49 1.20 2,216 306 0.43 0.42 4,962 826 1.96 1.49 69 73 Myanmar Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Myanmar Total Myanmar Domestic Myanmar International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 1,292 337 1.45 1.22 48 9 0.58 0.39 1,244 328 1.48 1.24 96 97 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Bangladesh Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Bangladesh Total Bangladesh Domestic Bangladesh International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 16,477 2,559 1.06 1.06 4,221 531 0.50 0.48 12,256 2,028 1.25 1.21 74 79 Philippines Cambodia Indonesia Sri Lanka Myanmar Bangladesh Brunei Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Brunei Total Brunei Domestic Brunei International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 1,376 218 1.04 1.60 294 37 0.55 1.00 1,082 181 1.19 1.72 79 83 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Laos Uncited 0 <&< = 0.125 0.125 <& < = 0.25 0.25 <& < = 0.50 0.5 <& < = 1 1 <& < = 2 2 <& < = 4 4 <& < = 8 8 < World average CNCI Laos Total Laos Domestic Laos International International as a % Total papers 2018 papers Average CNCI 2018 CNCI 1,493 204 1.12 0.90 36 6 0.38 0.62 1,457 198 1.14 0.91 98 97 Brunei Laos 13 Research activity and performance data are skewed, exhibiting many low and only a few high values. The benefits of Impact Profiles are that they show the distribution underpinning the average values and explain the balance between uncited, less well cited and more highly cited outputs. With the exception of India, (where about one-quarter of papers have an international co-author,) every other country in S&E Asia has at least 50% international co-authorship. For Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos this is over 95%. By separating the domestic and international components, we can see how reliant each country is on its partnerships for its overall profile as well as its capacity. Singapore stands out. Singapore National University, Nanyang Technological University and the National Research Foundation's A* research agency are recognised as world-leading institutions. Its Impact Profile peak is above world average and it has a substantial percentage of publications in the highest two categories. India is notable for a strong domestic research base but despite its volume it has yet to sustain high citation impact across the breadth of its research portfolio and its international collaborative output is visibly more highly-cited than the domestic output. The other larger research economies (see Figure 2) have domestic profiles that broadly overlap with their overall profile (including international papers) and while left-shifted (towards lower impact) are similarly bell-shaped. For the four medium-sized economies (see figure 3), the domestic Impact Profile is less symmetrical and is more evidently shifted towards low impact categories and a relatively high proportion of uncited papers. The domestic pattern for the four smallest economies loses the standard 'bell-shape' and the overall Impact Profile is clearly driven primarily by international collaboration. As noted earlier, it is a universal truth that international collaboration boosts the citation rates for research publications. In the case of the smaller research economies, the total and international Impact Profiles are almost indistinguishable because the innate domestic research capacity remains small. The Impact Profiles demonstrate that – whatever the average CNCI – there are excellent research papers produced by researchers in all these countries. What is less immediately evident is the research base tackling research that addresses local and regional policy and economic concerns. This is often because such research is close to application and transferred directly to users or published in non-journal formats not indexed in the Web of Science. Regional citation indexes that capture this local research are now making the information available to regional researchers. These include the Malaysian Citation Index (http:// www.mycite.my/) established by the Ministry of Education in 2011 and the Thai Journal Citation Index (http:// www.kmutt.ac.th/jif/public_html/). Indonesia does not have its own citation database but it lists and tiers journals for assessment (http:// sinta2.ristekdikti.go.id/journals). Impact Profiles demonstrate that there are excellent research papers produced by researchers in all these countries. 14 Summary Historically, Asia is recognized as having contributed to the foundation of much of the world's understanding of science. However, S&E Asia has generally featured less prominently during the modern era, with the exception of some outstanding individuals and the exceptional performance of Singapore's universities and research institutions, built on the vision of Lee Kuan Yew. The data reported here show a region where research generally still lags significantly on its European associates and more established Asian neighbours (China, Japan, South Korea) but which is nonetheless growing steadily. There are three essential ingredients that would address the gap in performance and the development. • Human capital is the first of these. The relative number of researchers in the workforce is still very small for many S&E Asia countries and that must be linked to the funding and development of higher education. • A research environment strongly promoted through universities free to pursue their own programs of thought and innovation will be critical to change in this regard. • The resources that the region could deploy are enormous and the potential for achievement and innovation is vast. If only to keep pace with others prospering through expanding their knowledge economies, S&E Asia nations cannot afford to underinvest in scientific and technology education and research. The analysis in this report presents a complex picture, and contrasts are marked. Some nations have experienced very rapid growth. Conversely these are continuing low levels of research activity and output elsewhere. The possibility of a truly effective regional network of collaborative endeavour is not yet fully realized, because there is simply insufficient capacity in some countries to engage even locally. Levels of collaboration are, for most of the region, substantial but there is much still to be put in place in translating this into the growth of domestic capacity. Partnerships are a route to development – not only regional partnerships but links to the rest of the world. This need not be about diffuse aid – an issue of concern – because the rest of the world should be able to identify emerging centres of excellence. Although national average citation impact may lag behind world averages, the Impact Profiles demonstrate a growing volume of excellence that will hopefully enable further growth of high-quality capacity. It is difficult, and perhaps unnecessary, to provide any simple summary of the current state of the research environment across S&E Asia. Institutional growth and development will surely turn emerging strengths into a new reality. It is essential that this should not only deliver top-end research but also create more robust educational and social transformation through human resource capacity. How widespread that change becomes and how it translates into different research fields will be an interesting narrative to follow. 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