|Summary||Bayesian Reasoning includes issues related to: 1. the probabilistic logic of evidential support for hypotheses; 2. the logic of comparative belief, belief strengths, and belief updating as represented by classical probability functions; 3. the logic of decision as represented in terms of utilities, probabilities, and expected utility maximization, including ways in which this logic may represent comparative preferences among acts or states of affairs; 4. Bayesian probabilistic treatments of causal influence (e.g. via Bayes nets); 5. studies of relationships between human performance and models of reasoning and decision of a Bayesian kind (as described in 1-4 above).|
Bayesian reasoning includes a wide variety of topics and issues. For introductory overviews of Bayesian confirmation theory and decision theory, among the best texts available are Skyrms 1966 and Hacking 2001; at a somewhat more advanced level Urbach & Howson 1993 is essential reading. Key sources for Bayesian probability and decision theory include Ramsey 1926, Savage 1954, Jeffrey 1965, and Joyce 1999. The classic treatment of Bayes nets is Pearl 1988. Chater & Oaksford 2008 is an excellent collection of articles on Bayesian modeling of natural human reasoning. Also see the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (online, Zalta 2004) for helpful articles on various aspects of Bayesian reasoning: e.g. on Bayes' Theorem, Bayesian Epistemology, Inductive Logic, Decision Theory, etc.
|Introductions||Hájek 2007; Joyce 2008; Hawthorne 2011; Talbott 2008; Vineberg 2011; Weirich 2009; Hitchcock 2008.|
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David Bourget (Western Ontario)
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