Econometrics

In recent decades, economists have developed methods for measuring the country-wide level of inequality of opportunity. The most popular method, called the ex-ante method, uses data on the distribution of outcomes stratified by groups of individuals with the same circumstances, in order to estimate the part of outcome inequality that is due to these circumstances. I argue that these methods are potentially biased, both upwards and downwards, and that the unknown size of this bias could be large. To argue that (...) the methods are biased, I show that they ought to measure causal or counterfactual quantities, while the methods are only capable of identifying correlational information. To argue that the bias is potentially large, I illustrate how the causal complexity of the real world leads to numerous non-causal correlations between circumstances and outcomes and respond to objections claiming that such correlations are nonetheless indicators of unfair disadvantage, that is, inequality of opportunity. (shrink)

To support my Phd theses and results of my grant research in 1999, I asked 1) prominent chemist Antonín Holý, author of substances to treat hepatitis and HIV, about the indivisibility of the art and science (published in Slovak Narodna Obroda and Czech blisty,cz), 2) the distinguished economist William Baumol about the alternative activities (published in Slovak Nove Slovo, Czech Respekt and blisty.cz), 3) Nobel Laureate Clive Granger about the significance of the economics (published in 2004 in Czech weekly Tyden). (...) The interviews were exhibited in Holland Park, W8 6LU, The Ice House between 18. Oct - 3. Nov. 2013. (shrink)

In attempts to compare different distributions with regards to need, so-called “measures of need-based distributive justice” have emerged in recent years. Each of the proposed measures relies on a single dimension of need that is taken into account. This is shown to be problematic since humans experience different kinds of need that appear to be incommensurable. A strategy to deal with this problem is introduced by using multidimensional measures.

The most plausible of Yarkoni's paths to recovery for psychology is the least radical one: psychologists need truly quantitative methods that exploit the informational power of variance and heterogeneity in multiple variables. If they drop ambitions to explain entire behaviors, they could find a box full of design and econometric tools in the parts of experimental economics that don't ape psychology.

The interventionist theory of causation has been advertised as an empirically informed and more nuanced approach to causality than the competing theories. However, previous literature has not yet analyzed the regression discontinuity (hereafter, RD) and the difference-in-differences (hereafter, DD) within an interventionist framework. In this paper, I point out several drawbacks of using the interventionist methodology for justifying the DD and RD designs. However, I argue that the first step towards enhancing our understanding of the DD and RD designs from (...) an interventionist perspective is to take advantage of the assumptions of common trend and continuity. (shrink)

The current economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has created new changes and challenges for society, which has led to a deeper identification of pressing problems and to develop strategies and models for overcoming crises in various countries, industries and businesses. The formation and improvement of modern strategies and models of crisis management is impossible without optimizing the resources of economic entities, providing assistance at various levels of government to support priority sectors of the economy, finding additional sources of (...) funding to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure the effective develop and implementation of modern strategies and models of crisis management it is necessary to have information about the state of economic entities, relevant commodity, raw materials, financial markets, explore the internal and external environment, determine the impact of risks on current activities business entities or industries. The effectiveness of crisis management strategies and models is determined by the ability of the management system to ensure the support of business activity of economic entities in the relevant market and to stimulate effective consumer demand. The purpose of writing this scientific monograph is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations and to form and improve strategies and models of crisis management taking into account new changes and challenges for society related to the COVID-19 pandemic and declining business activity of economic entities. The object of the author’s research was the process of formation and improvement of crisis management strategies and models in the conditions of market imbalance and change of the external environment, reduction of activity volumes of economic entities, growth of budget expenditures to combat the COVID-19, formation of new forms of activities and penetration of information technology into various spheres of life to optimize the negative consequences of a pandemic. The subject of the study were socio-economic, organizational and institutional processes of formation and effective implementation of strategies and models of crisis management in various areas of economic activity; substantiation of mechanisms for ensuring the competitiveness of economic entities and the formation new forms of entrepreneurship; development of modern information technologies; consideration of best practices in business process management and digitalization using world experience in various sectors of the economy caused by the COVID-19. (shrink)

The problem of corruption in Ukraine has been examined, as well as Blockchain technology application feasibility in combating the phenomenon has been analyzed in the article. Blockchain instrumental features and properties, making the technology unique and determining its potential applications in many sectors of the economy, have been covered with much attention. The authors have analyzed both advantages and obstacles for a distributed data registry implementation. Analysis of benchmarks and application of the best practices of Blockchain technology in the public (...) sector, including the fiscal process, have been presented in the study. Profound interest in exploring the technology feasibility has been emphasized on the part of the world's leading governments. Information on pilot Blockchain projects in the public sector of Ukraine has been presented. The article focuses on the fact that alongside with the technology area and ways of scaling its application, a new era of digital society development is emerging. (shrink)

In economics, thought experiments are frequently justified by the difficulty of conducting controlled experiments. They serve several functions, such as establishing causal facts, isolating tendencies, and allowing inferences from models to reality. In this paper, I argue that thought experiments served a further function in economics: facilitating the quantitative definition and measurement of the theoretical concept of utility, thereby bridging the gap between theory and statistical data. I support my argument by a case study, the “hypothetical experiments” of the Norwegian (...) economist Ragnar Frisch (1895-1973). Frisch aimed to eliminate introspection and a subjective concept of utility from economic reasoning. At the same time, he sought behavioral foundations for economic theory that enabled quantitative reasoning. By using thought experiments to justify his set of choice axioms and facilitating the operationalization of utility, Frisch circumvented the problem of observing utility via actual experiments without eliminating the concept of utility from economic theory altogether. As such, these experiments helped Frisch to empirically support the theory’s most important results, such as the laws of demand and supply, without the input of new empirical findings. I suggest that Frisch’s experiments fulfill the main characteristics of thought experiments. (shrink)

The article deals with a new financial tool of attracting capital, known as Initial Coin Offering (ICO). In conditions of reduced banking lending and difficult access to finance for SMEs, ICO is viewed to be one of the possible ways to access capital. It considers the main advantages and disadvantages of ICO performance, including its typical features, challenges and regulatory approaches to tax regulation, cybersecurity. The authors of the article determine stages of the ICO mechanism, identifying potential risks and ways (...) to mitigate them, focusing primarily on the need to control and regulate ICO projects. The authors identify the main types of ICO funding, including hybrid and pure funding. The research contains an analysis of ICO trends and their duration for the period of 2013-2017. The capital raised through ICO performance over the period of 2013-2017 is analysed, and determination of the exponential trend line showing the level of its approximation is determined. The study covers the territorial distribution of ICO, in which the top positions regarding the amount of capital raised by ICO are attributed to the USA and EU member states. The existence of ICO regulation in European countries, such as Switzerland and UK, was defined positive in terms of further development of the relevant regulation in the financial market. The article considers the best ICO practices in EU member states. To mitigate risks relating to ICO performance and to increase the level of investment, it would be reasonable to create regulatory rules in every country where cases of ICO performance are reported, based on the practice of the mentioned European countries. The authors give recommendations regarding ICO regulation in Ukraine, taking into consideration the relevant European experience. (shrink)

This research article was championed as a way of providing discourses pertaining to the concept of "Critical Realism (CR)" approach, which is amongst many othe forms of competing postmodern philosophical concepts for the engagement of dialogical discourses in the area of established econonetric methodologies for effective policy prescription in the economic science discipline. On the the whole, there is no doubt surrounding the value of empirical endeavours in econometrics to address real world economic problems, but equally so, the heavy weighted (...) use and reliance on mathematical contents as a way of justifying its scientific base seemed to be loosing traction of the intended focus of economics when it comes to confronting real world problems in the domain of social interaction. In this vein, the construction of mixed methods discourse(s), which favour that of CR philosophy is hereby suggested in this article as a way forward in confronting with issues raised by critics of mainstream economics and other professionals in the postmodern era. (shrink)

Стаття присвячена дослідженню питань формування нової стратегії самодостатнього розвитку транспортно- комунікативної системи України. Проаналізовано стратегічний документ «Транспортна стратегія України на період до 2020 р.» та виявлено низку недоліків. Було виокремлено недоліки стратегічного та методич- ного характеру. Окрему увагу автором приділено недосконалості системи стратегічних документів, які регулюють розвиток ТКС, відсутності деяких стратегій розвитку галузей ТКС, проблемам фінансування, а також проблемам, пов’язаним з цільовими програмами розвитку. Вказано на проблеми, пов’язані із структурним наповненням зазначеної стратегії. -/- Статья посвящена исследованию вопросов формирования новой стратегии (...) самодостаточного развития транспортно-коммуникативной системы Украины. Проанализирован стратегический документ «Транс- портная стратегия Украины на период до 2020 г.» и выявлен ряд недостатков. Были выделены недостатки стратегического и методического характера. Особое внимание автором уделено несовершенству системы стратегических документов, регулирующих развитие ТКС, отсутствию некоторых стратегий развития отраслей ТКС, проблемам финансирования, а также проблемам, связанным с целевыми программами развития. Указано на проблемы, связанные со структурным наполнением действующей стратегии. (shrink)

Recent studies have shown that the indigenous population has been subject to social exclusion (Medel, 2016; Tetreault,2012; Rionda,2010; Del Popolo et al.,2009; World Bank,2004; Uquillas et al.,2003; Appasamy,1996). However, in the case of Mexico, there is no indicator to measure the degree of social exclusion. This article presents a methodology for estimating social exclusion index (IES) by estimating main components. Our proposal is to incorporate the index of social exclusion as a factor that can explain the current status of poverty (...) in the localities that have a high concentration of indigenous population and high economic marginalization in the state of Veracruz, and thus analyze the scope social policy to combat poverty, as the case Development Program Priority Areas (PDZP). (shrink)

In Southeast Asian countries (SEA), road transport accounts for the main energy consumption and CO2 emission. Air pollution is a major concern in densely populated cities such as Bangkok, Manila, and Kuala Lumpur. The main objective of this paper is to give insights on trends of transport development, car ownership, and CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia. This study also attempts to review the successful transportation policies around the globe and to introduce the possible instruments that can help reduce air pollution (...) in Southeast Asian countries. Economic instruments to estimate the benefits of a cleaner environment due to new policies are introduced as well. The results of this research could help policy makers consider approaches that could internalize external costs of transportation and maximize the societal welfare. (shrink)

Choice experiment (CE) is a questionnaire based method that the accuracy of research questionnaire determines the validity of the research outcomes. Attribute selection has a prime importance in every CE studies. If respondents do not understand or do not have preference for a certain attribute, the attribute non-attendance problem might happen that biases overall results of the research. Qualitative approaches such as literature review, focus group discussion, and in depth discussion commonly applied in CE researches. However, especially in the developing (...) countries context where ethnical and cultural diversity is a challenge in conducting survey based questionnaires, qualitative methods are not sufficient in selecting attributes. Present study investigates the application of relative importance index (RII) in respondents¡¯ preference for attributes in a modal shift study in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The 5 point Likert scale questions were employed to enhance respondents¡¯ preferences for initial 24 selected attributes. The results of this study showed that from 24 pre-selected attributes, only 18 of them had RII>0.5 and could be included in the final CE design. The results of this study could help researchers to control for unobserved problems in selecting the attributes which could not be discovered through qualitative approaches. -/- . (shrink)

This paper explores the potential of data mining as a technique that could be used by malicious data miners to threaten the privacy of social network sites users. It applies a data mining algorithm to a real dataset to provide empirically-based evidence of the ease with which characteristics about the SNS users can be discovered and used in a way that could invade their privacy. One major contribution of this article is the use of the decision forest data mining algorithm (...) to the context of SNS, which does not only build a decision tree but rather a forest allowing the exploration of more logic rules from a dataset. One logic rule that SysFor built in this study, for example, revealed that anyone having a profile picture showing just the face or a picture showing a family is less likely to be lonely. Another contribution of this article is the discussion of the implications of the data mining problem for governments, businesses, developers and the SNS users themselves. (shrink)

This paper looks at an appeal to the authority of biomedical research that has recently been used by empirical economists to motivate and justify their methods. I argue that those who make this appeal mistake the nature of biomedical research. Randomised trials, which are said to have revolutionised biomedical research, are a central methodology, but according to only one paradigm. There is another paradigm at work in biomedical research, the inferentialist paradigm, in which randomised trials play no special role. I (...) outline the inferentialist alternative in broad strokes, apply it to a recent controversy in econometrics and draw some general conclusions concerning econometric methodology. (shrink)

The objective of the paper is threefold. First, to argue that some of Haavelmo's methodological ideas and insights have been neglected because they are largely at odds with the traditional perspective that views empirical modeling in economics as an exercise in curve-fitting. Second, to make a case that this neglect has contributed to the unreliability of empirical evidence in economics that is largely due to statistical misspecification. The latter affects the reliability of inference by inducing discrepancies between the actual and (...) nominal error probabilities. Third, to argue that the ‘bridge pier’ between theory and data, as envisaged by Haavelmo, T [The Probability Approach to Econometrics, Econometrica, 12, 1–115], can be completed by blending some of his key methodological ideas and insights into a refined/extended version of the frequentist approach to inference. This new perspective is used to revisit dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling in an attempt to bring.. (shrink)

Decision makers in banking, insurance or employment mitigate many of their risks by telling “good” individuals and “bad” individuals apart. Laws codify societal understandings of which factors are legitimate grounds for differential treatment —or are considered unfair discrimination, including gender, ethnicity or age. Discrimination-aware data mining implements the hope that information technology supporting the decision process can also keep it free from unjust grounds. However, constraining data mining to exclude a fixed enumeration of potentially discriminatory features is insufficient. We argue (...) for complementing it with exploratory DADM, where discriminatory patterns are discovered and flagged rather than suppressed. This article discusses the relative merits of constraint-oriented and exploratory DADM from a conceptual viewpoint. In addition, we consider the case of loan applications to empirically assess the fitness of both discrimination-aware data mining approaches for two of their typical usage scenarios: prevention and detection. Using Mechanical Turk, 215 US-based participants were randomly placed in the roles of a bank clerk or a citizen / policy advisor. They were tasked to recommend or predict the approval or denial of a loan, across three experimental conditions: discrimination-unaware data mining, exploratory, and constraint-oriented DADM. The discrimination-aware tool support in the eDADM and cDADM treatments led to significantly higher proportions of correct decisions, which were also motivated more accurately. There is significant evidence that the relative advantage of discrimination-aware techniques depends on their intended usage. For users focussed on making and motivating their decisions in non-discriminatory ways, cDADM resulted in more accurate and less discriminatory results than eDADM. For users focussed on monitoring for preventing discriminatory decisions and motivating these conclusions, eDADM yielded more accurate results than cDADM. (shrink)

Experimental data on social preferences present a number of features that need to be incorporated in econometric modelling. We explore a variety of econometric modelling approaches to the analysis of such data. The approaches under consideration are: the Random Utility approach ; the Random Behavioural approach ; and the Random Preference approach. These approaches are applied in various ways to an experiment on fairness conducted by Cappelen et al. :818–827, 2007). Various models that we estimate succeed in capturing the key (...) features of the dataset. Conclusions concerning fairness-related behaviour depend crucially on the choice of econometric model. (shrink)

Social research, from economics to demography and epidemiology, makes extensive use of statistical models in order to establish causal relations. The question arises as to what guarantees the causal interpretation of such models. In this paper we focus on econometrics and advance the view that causal models are ‘augmented’ statistical models that incorporate important causal information which contributes to their causal interpretation. The primary objective of this paper is to argue that causal claims are established on the basis of a (...) plurality of evidence. We discuss the consequences of ‘evidential pluralism’ in the context of econometric modelling. (shrink)

Summary In the second half of the eighteenth century, the Prussian State supported savants who combined learned inquiry into nature with technical work. Members of the physical and mathematical classes of the Royal Prussian Academy of Sciences were involved in State projects such as surveying for the construction of canals, chemical analysis of Silesian iron, production of porcelain and of beet sugar. Some of these men were truly ?hybrid? experts living both in the worlds of State-directed manufacture and academic natural (...) inquiry. Among these savant experts there was a particular sub-group that is at the centre of this paper: mining officials who were also recognized as mineralogists, geologists and chemists. The paper describes and analyses the training and the varied technical and scientific activities of these ?savant officials?. At the centre of attention are the travels of inspection of the mineralogist and mining official Carl Abraham Gerhard (1738?1821) in the late 1760s. I argue that Gerhard's travels of inspection were at the same time geological travels and that savant officials like Gerhard made a significant contribution to the fledgling science of geology. (shrink)

Summary In the course of the 18th century a new type of scientifically educated functional elites developed, who were trained to administer mines. The educational project that led to the formation of a corps of mining engineers was part of a programme of administrative and economic reforms that led to a new configuration of bonds between state, economy and science. At the same time the status of this new group of experts was predicated substantially by the new emerging corpora of (...) the scientific, technological and cameralist knowledge of the period between 1760 and 1800. The aim of this paper is to discuss this group using the example of a leading expert in the context of the mining and metallurgy of this period. Anton von Ruprecht (1748?1814) was strongly grounded in the social and epistemic context of the Habsburg mining bureaucracy, which employed his scientific and technical savoir faire to serve their mercantile goals in several areas of mining expertise. (shrink)

This paper provides a critical analysis of the modelling strategies adopted in the trade?growth literature. Despite a huge number of econometric studies, there is a growing dissatisfaction with such studies and serious questions over what exactly has been learnt from them. Econometric work has been criticized for, amongst other things, its lack of clear relationship to underlying theory and questionable use of proxies for trade policy. It is frequently unclear what hypothesis is being tested in this literature. Universalist assumptions of (...) the effects of trade policy have been undermined by earlier confident predictions of the effects of trade liberalization having not been borne out systematically by the past quarter century experience. This paper argues that the results of econometric analyses of the trade?growth relations are indicative of fundamental difficulties with the cross-country modeling strategy. The failure to find a clear trade?growth relationship consistently across countries and between time periods could, though, provide the starting point for further investigation. Alternative modelling strategies are considered here. An incipient research agenda has proposed a return to the comparative case study approach, incorporating the institutional and historical specificities of each country and thereby (implicitly or explicitly) rejecting universalist or homogeneity assumptions. Nevertheless, such a careful work has not been able thus far to provide a clear research agenda; there has been no consensus on the conclusions or methods of this approach in relation to trade?growth linkages. Whilst this has undoubtedly stimulated further research it has yet to produce a clear corpus of alternative work. This paper provides a critical analysis of the strategies adopted to address the theoretical and econometric critiques advanced of this work. (shrink)

Originally published in 1981, this book considers one particular area of econometrics- the linear model- where significant recent advances have been made. It considers both single and multiequation models with varying co-efficients, explains the various theories and techniques connected with these and goes on to describe the various applications of the models. Whilst the detailed explanation of the models will interest primarily econometrics specialists, the implications of the advances outlined and the applications of the models will intrest a wide range (...) of economists. (shrink)

Econometric reduction theory provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the analysis and classification of the reductions (simplifications) associated with empirical econometric models. However, the available approaches to econometric reduction theory are unable to satisfactorily accommodate a commonplace theory of social reality, namely that the course of history is indeterministic, that history does not repeat itself and that the future depends on the past. Using concepts from philosophy this paper proposes a solution to these shortcomings, which in addition permits new reductions, (...) interpretations and definitions. (shrink)

Econometric Theory and Methods International Edition provides a unified treatment of modern econometric theory and practical econometric methods. The geometrical approach to least squares is emphasized, as is the method of moments, which is used to motivate a wide variety of estimators and tests. Simulation methods, including the bootstrap, are introduced early and used extensively. The book deals with a large number of modern topics. In addition to bootstrap and Monte Carlo tests, these include sandwich covariance matrix estimators, artificial regressions, (...) estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, indirect inference, and kernel estimation. Every chapter incorporates numerous exercises, some theoretical, some empirical, and many involving simulation. (shrink)

I comment on the controversy between McCloskey and Ziliak and Hoover and Siegler on statistical versus economic significance, in the March 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology. I argue that while McCloskey and Ziliak are right in emphasizing ?real error?, i.e. non-sampling error that cannot be eliminated through specification testing, they fail to acknowledge those areas in economics, e.g. rational expectations macroeconomics and asset pricing, where researchers clearly distinguish between statistical and economic significance and where statistical testing plays (...) a relatively minor role in model evaluation. In these areas models are treated as inherently misspecified and, consequently, are evaluated empirically by other methods than statistical tests. I also criticize McCloskey and Ziliak for their strong focus on the size of parameter estimates while neglecting the important question of how to obtain reliable estimates, and I argue that significance tests are useful tools in those cases where a statistical model serves as input in the quantification of an economic model. Finally, I provide a specific example from economics ? asset return predictability ? where the distinction between statistical and economic significance is well appreciated, but which also shows how statistical tests have contributed to our substantive economic understanding. (shrink)

For more than 20 years, Deidre McCloskey has campaigned to convince the economics profession that it is hopelessly confused about statistical significance. She argues that many practices associated with significance testing are bad science and that most economists routinely employ these bad practices: ?Though to a child they look like science, with all that really hard math, no science is being done in these and 96 percent of the best empirical economics ?? (McCloskey 1999). McCloskey's charges are analyzed and rejected. (...) That statistical significance is not economic significance is a jejune and uncontroversial claim, and there is no convincing evidence that economists systematically mistake the two. Other elements of McCloskey's analysis of statistical significance are shown to be ill?founded, and her criticisms of practices of economists are found to be based in inaccurate readings and tendentious interpretations of those economists' work. Properly used, significance tests are a valuable tool for assessing signal strength, for assisting in model specification, and for determining causal structure. (shrink)

This paper argues that econometricians' explicit adoption of identification conditions in structural equation modelling commits them to read the functional form of their equations in a strong, nonmathematical way. This content, which is implicitly attributed to the functional form of structural equations, is part of what makes equation structural. Unfortunately, econometricians are not explicit about the role functional form plays in signifying structural content. In order to remedy this, the second part of this paper presents an interpretation of the functional (...) form based on Herbert Simon 's definition of causal order. This begins to set out just what the functional form of structural equations represents. ‡I would like to thank Nancy Cartwright and attendants at UCSD Graduate Seminar 2006 for helpful comments. I also want to thank the AHRC for supporting the research for this paper. †To contact the author, please write to: Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom; e-mail: [email protected] (shrink)

Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Since the mid?1950s the spread of formal models and econometric method has greatly improved the study of the past, giving rise to the ?new? economic history; at the same time, the influence of economic history on economists and economics has markedly declined. This paper argues that the contribution of history to the advancement of economics is still paramount, as is evident from the evolution of monetary theory and institutions.JEL classification: NO1, A12.