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Formal Epistemology

Assistant editor: Mackenzie Marcotte (University of Western Ontario)
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  1. Credal Imprecision and the Value of Evidence.Nilanjan Das - forthcoming - Noûs.
    This paper is about a tension between two theses. The first is Value of Evidence: roughly, the thesis that it is always rational for an agent to gather and use cost-free evidence for making decisions. The second is Rationality of Imprecision: the thesis that an agent can be rationally required to adopt doxastic states that are imprecise, i.e., not representable by a single credence function. While others have noticed this tension, I offer a new diagnosis of it. I show that (...)
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  2. Diachronic and Interpersonal Coherence.Kenny Easwaran & Reuben Stern - forthcoming - In A. K. Flowerree & Baron Reed (eds.), Towards an Expansive Epistemology: Norms, Action, and the Social Sphere. Routledge.
    Bayesians standardly claim that there is rational pressure for agents’ credences to cohere across time because they face bad (epistemic or practical) consequences if they fail to diachronically cohere. But as David Christensen has pointed out, groups of individual agents also face bad consequences if they fail to interpersonally cohere, and there is no general rational pressure for one agent's credences to cohere with another’s. So it seems that standard Bayesian arguments may prove too much. Here, we agree with Christensen (...)
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  3. What of Multi- and Interdisciplinarity? A (Personal) Case Study.Luis M. Augusto - 2022 - Journal of Knowledge Structures and Systems 3 (2):1-3.
    An analysis of--yet another--case of academic failure in multi- and interdisciplinarity. An editorial of the Journal of Knowledge Structures & Systems.
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  4. Downwards Propriety in Epistemic Utility Theory.Alejandro Pérez Carballo - forthcoming - Mind.
    Epistemic Utility Theory is often identified with the project of *axiology-first epistemology*—the project of vindicating norms of epistemic rationality purely in terms of epistemic value. One of the central goals of axiology-first epistemology is to provide a justification of the central norm of Bayesian epistemology, Probabilism. The first part of this paper presents a new challenge to axiology first epistemology: I argue that in order to justify Probabilism in purely axiological terms, proponents of axiology first epistemology need to justify a (...)
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  5. Degrees of Incoherence, Dutch Bookability & Guidance Value.Jason Konek - forthcoming - Philosophical Studies.
    Why is it good to be less, rather than more incoherent? Julia Staffel, in her excellent book "Unsettled Thoughts," answers this question by showing that if your credences are incoherent, then there is some way of nudging them toward coherence that is guaranteed to make them more accurate and reduce the extent to which they are Dutch-bookable. This seems to show that such a nudge toward coherence makes them better fit to play their key epistemic and practical roles: representing the (...)
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  6. Actual Value in Decision Theory.Andrew Bacon - forthcoming - Analysis.
    Decision theory is founded on the principle that we ought to take the action that has the maximum expected value from among actions we are in a position to take. But prior to the notion of expected value is the notion of the actual value of that action: roughly, a measure of the good outcomes you would in fact procure if you were to take it. Surprisingly many decision theories operate without an analysis of actual value. I offer a definition (...)
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  7. Diachronic trends in the topic distributions of formal epistemology abstracts.David Kinney - 2022 - Synthese 200 (1):1-34.
    Formal epistemology is a growing field of philosophical research. It is also evolving, with the subject matter of formal epistemology papers changing considerably over the past two decades. To quantify the ways in which formal epistemology is changing, I generate a stochastic block topic model of the abstracts of papers classified by PhilPapers.org as pertaining to formal epistemology. This model identifies fourteen salient topics of formal epistemology abstracts at a first level of abstraction, and four topics at a second level (...)
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  8. EXTREME PERMISSIVISM REVISITED.Tamaz Tokhadze - 2022 - European Journal of Analytic Philosophy 18 (1):(A1)5-26.
    Extreme Permissivism is the view that a body of evidence could rationally permit both the attitude of belief and disbelief towards a proposition. This paper puts forward a new argument against Extreme Permissivism, which improves on a similar style of argument due to Roger White (2005, 2014). White’s argument is built around the principle that the support relation between evidence and a hypothesis is objective: so that if evidence E makes it rational for an agent to believe a hypothesis H, (...)
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  9. Best Laid Plans: Idealization and the Rationality–Accuracy Bridge.Brett Topey - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    Hilary Greaves and David Wallace argue that conditionalization maximizes expected accuracy and so is a rational requirement, but their argument presupposes a particular picture of the bridge between rationality and accuracy: the Best-Plan-to-Follow picture. And theorists such as Miriam Schoenfield and Robert Steel argue that it's possible to motivate an alternative picture—the Best-Plan-to-Make picture—that does not vindicate conditionalization. I show that these theorists are mistaken: it turns out that, if an update procedure maximizes expected accuracy on the Best-Plan-to-Follow picture, it's (...)
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  10. Topological Epistemology as Epistemology First.Thomas Mormann - manuscript
    Abstract. The aim of this paper is to sketch a topological epistemology that can be characterized as a knowledge first epistemology. For this purpose, the standard topological semantics for knowledge in terms of the interior kernel operator K of a topological space is extended to a topological semantics of belief operators B in a new way. It is shown that a topological structure has a kind of “derivation” (its “assembly” or “lattice of nuclei”) that defines a profusion of belief operators (...)
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  11. Bayesian Epistemology.Jürgen Landes - 2022 - Kriterion – Journal of Philosophy 36 (1):1-7.
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  12. Prison Break? In Defense of Correlationism.Emanuel Rutten - manuscript
    A core presumption of object oriented ontology and other speculative realisms is that there is a world independent of the mind that can be successfully inquired and should take center stage in our reflections again. A profound case for this realist presumption is found in Meillassoux’s After Finitude. He aims to secure our access to reality as it is in itself by refuting correlationism according to which we cannot escape reality as it is thought by us. He presents three arguments: (...)
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  13. A Primer on Bartlett's CRITIQUE OF IMPURE REASON.Steven James Bartlett - 2021 - Willamette Univesity Faculty Research Website.
    This is a primer on Steven James Bartlett's book CRITIQUE OF IMPURE REASON: HORIZONS OF POSSIBILITY AND MEANING. ●●●●● -/- Some books are long and complex. The Critique of Impure Reason is such a book. It is long enough and complex enough so that it may be a service to some readers to offer a primer to introduce and partially summarize the book’s objectives and method. Here, the author of Critique of Impure Reason: Horizons of Possibility and Meaning provides such (...)
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  14. Risco: modal ou probablístico?Gustavo Oliva de Oliveira - 2021 - In Valentinne Serpa, Vinícius Felipe Posselt, Bruna Diedrich & Darlan Lorenzetti (eds.), XXI SEMANA ACADÊMICA DO PPG EM FILOSOFIA DA PUCRS VOLUME II – FILOSOFIA MEDIEVAL / FEMINISMO / FILOSOFIA ANALÍTICA. Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil: pp. 125-140.
    The traditional conception of risk is probabilistic, according to which the degree of risk of an event is determined by the probability of its occurence. Recently this view was challenged by Duncan Pritchard (2015, 2016), who suggested a modal theory of risk, centered in the idea that the riskiness of events depends on the modal distance between the actual world and worlds where the event obtains. What is attractive about this theory, according to Pritchard, is that it explains our judgement (...)
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  15. Accurate Believers Are Deductively Cogent.Matt Hewson - 2021 - Noûs.
    This paper argues that the agent concerned to have accurate (outright) beliefs will have a consistent and multi-premise closed belief set, and not a (merely) single-premise closed and (merely) pairwise consistent belief set, as has often been thought. This argument rests on the fact that we need a notion of accuracy coherence for belief that is belief-sensitive; sensitive to one's perspective, in a way that the standard belief-insensitive notion of accuracy coherence is not. The choice of the belief-sensitive over belief-insensitive (...)
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  16. Accuracy, Probabilism, and the Insufficiency of the Alethic.Corey Dethier - forthcoming - Philosophical Studies:1-17.
    The best and most popular argument for probabilism is the accuracy-dominance argument, which purports to show that alethic considerations alone support the view that an agent's degrees of belief should always obey the axioms of probability. I argue that extant versions of the accuracy-dominance argument face a problem. In order for the mathematics of the argument to function as advertised, we must assume that every omniscient credence function is classically consistent; there can be no worlds in the set of dominance-relevant (...)
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  17. Do sistema de conhecimento de Descartes: o “eu” como “coisa em si” e a “consciência da consciência”.Luiz Carlos Mariano da Rosa - 2015 - Revista Húmus 5 (13):2-31.
    Se o sentido e a finalidade da razão como instrumento de conhecimento converge para a possibilidade de discernimento envolvendo o verdadeiro e o falso, o que se impõe ao seu exercício não é senão um método que consiste na aplicação de determinados preceitos destinados tanto ao entendimento como à vontade, cuja contradição caracteriza o fundamento metafísico do erro, segundo Descartes que, conforme assinala o referido artigo, recorre a uma dúvida que, na investigação dos fundamentos absolutos, encerra uma radicalidade que tende (...)
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  18. Popper e a objetividade do conhecimento científico: a ciência provisória e a verdade temporária.Luiz Carlos Mariano da Rosa - 2011 - Cognitio-Estudos: Revista Eletrônica de Filosofia - Philosophy Eletronic Journal 8 (1):17-28.
    Se a leitura da epistemologia clássica e a perspectiva dos adeptos do “empirismo lógico” assinalam que a ciência demanda a exclusão de tudo aquilo que não se impõe ao horizonte que envolve a dedutibilidade analítica e a verificabilidade, Karl Popper defende que mais do que saber quando e em que condição uma teoria dialoga com a verdade a relevância não acena senão para a demarcação entre ciência e não ciência, particularmente no tocante às fronteiras que abrangem a ciência que carrega (...)
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  19. Schopenhauer and Nietzsche: the metaphysical dualism the principle of multiple-unit.Luiz Carlos Mariano da Rosa - 2014 - Revista Filosofia Capital 9 (2): 85-98.
    Perfazendo a primeira filosofia existencial trágica, a doutrina de Schopenhauer atribui a origem do caráter simultaneamente trágico, absurdo e doloroso da existência ao querer viver, implicando um pessimismo que impõe à felicidade uma condição negativa, à medida que o sofrimento emerge como o fundamento de toda a vida, constituindo-se o prazer estético uma possibilidade quanto à superação da dor e do tédio, conforme assinala o artigo cujo trabalho mostra a correlação envolvendo a perspectiva da metafí­sica da vontade e o pensamento (...)
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  20. Higher-Order Evidence and the Dynamics of Self-Location: An Accuracy-Based Argument for Calibrationism.Brett Topey - manuscript
    The thesis that agents should calibrate their beliefs in the face of higher-order evidence—i.e., should adjust their first-order beliefs in response to evidence suggesting that the reasoning underlying those beliefs is faulty—is sometimes thought to be in tension with Bayesian approaches to belief update: in order to obey Bayesian norms, it's claimed, agents must remain steadfast in the face of higher-order evidence. But I argue that this claim is incorrect. In particular, I motivate a minimal constraint on a reasonable treatment (...)
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  21. Methodological and Conceptual Challenges in Rare and Severe Event Forecast-Verification.Philip A. Ebert & Peter Milne - unknown
    ***PREPRINT***There are distinctive methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event (RSE) forecast-verification, that is, in the assessment of the quality of forecasts involving natural hazards such as avalanches or tornadoes. While some of these challenges have been discussed since the inception of the discipline in the 1880s, there is no consensus about how to assess RSE forecasts. This article offers a comprehensive and critical overview of the many different measures used to capture the quality of an RSE forecast (...)
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  22. El poscolonialismo o el colonialismo de los ‘pos.José Ramón Fabelo Corzo - 2002 - Revista Internacional Marx Ahora 13 (13):130-141.
    Se realiza una valoración crítica de algunas de las propuestas teóricas fundamentales del poscolonialismo, particularmente del Grupo Latinoamericano de Estudios Subalternos, nacido en los Estados Unidos en la década de 1990. Se muestra algunos de sus méritos, pero, sobre todo, sus limitaciones teórico-prácticas. -/- .
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  23. World Domination in Decision Theory and Formal Epistemology.Stephen Yablo - manuscript
  24. Connaissance formelle.Cedric Paternotte - 2018 - Encyclopédie Philosophique.
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  25. Local Explanations Via Necessity and Sufficiency: Unifying Theory and Practice.David Watson, Limor Gultchin, Taly Ankur & Luciano Floridi - 2022 - Minds and Machines 32:185-218.
    Necessity and sufficiency are the building blocks of all successful explanations. Yet despite their importance, these notions have been conceptually underdeveloped and inconsistently applied in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), a fast-growing research area that is so far lacking in firm theoretical foundations. Building on work in logic, probability, and causality, we establish the central role of necessity and sufficiency in XAI, unifying seemingly disparate methods in a single formal framework. We provide a sound and complete algorithm for computing explanatory factors (...)
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  26. BACON E A INDUÇÃO POR SUBTRAÇÃO COMO NOVO MÉTODO INDUTIVO NA FUNDAÇÃO DO EMPIRISMO MODERNO.Luiz Carlos Mariano da Rosa - 2020 - Revista Filosofia Capital 15 (22):21-35.
    Defendendo a união entre a razão e a experiência como a possibilidade de instauração do desenvolvimento científico, Bacon se contrapõe à indução aristotélica enquanto procedimento que implica a enumeração de casos particulares tendo em vista o objetivo de encontrar o geral existente em todos e em cada um deles em um processo que se detém na soma de fatos, limitando-se à comunicação, na medida em que não tem capacidade de empreender a descoberta do conhecimento. Dessa forma, sobrepondo-se ao acúmulo de (...)
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  27. Da ciência das quatro causas à ciência conjectural: Demonstração, invenção e descoberta entre Aristóteles, Bacon, Kant e Popper.Luiz Carlos Mariano Da Rosa - 2021 - São Paulo, SP, Brasil: PZP - Politikón Zôon Publicações.
    O referido trabalho de pesquisa se detém no desenvolvimento do pensamento científico através de uma construção teórico-conceitual baseada em Aristóteles, Bacon, Kant e Popper, convergindo para uma investigação que assinala desde a fundação da ciência em um processo que traz como perspectiva a ciência da substância (ou ciência das quatro causas) de Aristóteles, mostrando a contribuição de Bacon para a instauração da ciência moderna por intermédio da concepção de um novo método indutivo e da união entre ciência e técnica com (...)
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  28. Misleading Higher-Order Evidence, Conflicting Ideals, and Defeasible Logic.Aleks Knoks - 2021 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 8 (6):141--74.
    Thinking about misleading higher-order evidence naturally leads to a puzzle about epistemic rationality: If one’s total evidence can be radically misleading regarding itself, then two widely-accepted requirements of rationality come into conflict, suggesting that there are rational dilemmas. This paper focuses on an often misunderstood and underexplored response to this (and similar) puzzles, the so-called conflicting-ideals view. Drawing on work from defeasible logic, I propose understanding this view as a move away from the default metaepistemological position according to which rationality (...)
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  29. Which Kind of Legal Order? Logical Coherence and Praxeological Coherence.Mario J. Rizzo - 1999 - Journal des Economistes Et des Etudes Humaines 9 (4):497-510.
    Nous proposons dans cet article un développement de l’idée proposée par F.A. Hayek selon laquelle l’ordre du droit coutumier est un ordre d’action, une coordination des plans individuels dans un système d’échange régi par ce droit. Cette conception s’oppose à l’idée suivant laquelle l’ordre légal doit être avant tout fondé sur la cohérence logique des concepts et doctrines de ce droit. Un exemple important de cette approche est celui de la structure de maximisation des richesses de William Landes et Richard (...)
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  30. Disagreement. Edited by Richard Feldman and Ted A. Warfield. (Oxford UP, 2010. Pp. 291. Price $35.00.).Jeffrey Glick - 2012 - Philosophical Quarterly 62 (247):422-425.
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  31. Modellings for Belief Change: Base Contraction, Multiple Contraction, and Epistemic Entrenchment.Hans Rott - unknown
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  32. On the Logic of Theory Change: More Maps Between Different Kinds of Contraction Function.Hans Rott - unknown
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  33. Tradition and Progress: And Other Historical Essays in Culture, Religion and Politics. [REVIEW]Gerald G. Walsh - 1938 - Thought: Fordham University Quarterly 13 (4):661-663.
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  34. The Possibility of Partial Agreement.Aris Koutoungos - 2003 - Philosophical Inquiry 25 (1/2):179-202.
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  35. Knowledge-Based or Knower-Based?M. W. L. Eickemeyer - unknown
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  36. Kohärenzbegriffe in der Ethikconcepts of Coherence in Ethics.Martin Hoffmann - 2008 - Walter de Gruyter.
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  37. Knowledge in Flux. [REVIEW]F. Jose Diez Ausín - 1990 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 5 (1-2):276-282.
  38. Nascimentos da Psicologia: A Natureza E o Espírito.Paul Mengal & Miotto - 2015 - Ideação 32:259-288.
    Desde sua constituição como domínio do saber no fim do século XVI, a psicologia divide-se rapidamente em duas tendências com orientações diferentes. A primeira, de inspiração naturalista, situa-se no prolongamento do comentário da Física aristotélica e se desenvolve principalmente nas universidades protestantes de Marburgo e Leiden. Nesses estabelecimentos onde reinava então um espírito humanista, racionalista e tolerante, toma lugar a primeira forma de dualismo da alma e do corpo. Mas na mesma época, em círculos místicos e herméticos, desenvolve-se uma outra (...)
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  39. Sustainable Growth of the Kenyan Dairy Sector : A Quick Scan of Robustness, Reliability and Resilience.Corné J. Rademaker, Bockline Omedo Bebe, Jan Lee, Catherine Kilelu & Charles Tonui - unknown
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  40. Une Éthique En Désir de Cohérence.Raymond Mengus - 1983 - Revue des Sciences Religieuses 57 (2):147-159.
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  41. Tummu and Par-Ṣeḫru. Note on Two Measures of Weight at NuziTummu and Par-Sehru. Note on Two Measures of Weight at Nuzi.Carlo Zaccagnini - 1976 - Journal of the American Oriental Society 96 (2):273.
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  42. A Pragmatic Approach to the Problem of Logical Omniscience.Paul Egré - unknown
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  43. Postcripts to "A Pragmatic Approach to the Problem of Logical Omniscience".Paul Egré - unknown
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  44. Progress and Process.H. E. G. Rope - 1937 - New Blackfriars 18 (202):65-66.
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  45. Probability and Paradox.F. Granger - 1929 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 9 (1):1-18.
  46. Estimation of Distribution Algorithm Based on Probabilistic Grammar with Latent Annotations.Yoshihiko Hasegawa & Hitoshi Iba - 2008 - Transactions of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence 23 (1):13-26.
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  47. Surprisingly Rational: Probability Theory Plus Noise Explains Biases in Judgment.Fintan Costello & Paul Watts - 2014 - Psychological Review 121 (3):463-480.
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  48. On the Evidence Concerning J. Huttenlocher and E. T. Higgins' Theory of Reasoning.Herbert H. Clark - 1972 - Psychological Review 79 (5):428-432.
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  49. Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition: The Wisdom of Individuals or Crowds?Michael C. Mozer, Harold Pashler & Hadjar Homaei - 2008 - Cognitive Science 32 (7):1133-1147.
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  50. The Evidentiary Value Model.Nils-Eric Sahlin & Wlodek Rabinowicz - unknown
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