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  1. added 2018-08-13
    Probability: A Philosophical Introduction.D. H. Mellor - 2004 - Routledge.
    _Probability: A Philosophical Introduction_ introduces and explains the principal concepts and applications of probability. It is intended for philosophers and others who want to understand probability as we all apply it in our working and everyday lives. The book is not a course in mathematical probability, of which it uses only the simplest results, and avoids all needless technicality. The role of probability in modern theories of knowledge, inference, induction, causation, laws of nature, action and decision-making makes an understanding of (...)
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  2. added 2018-07-15
    A Response to Prelec.Luc Bovens - 2013 - In Adam Oliver (ed.), Essays in Behavioural Public Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 228-33.
    At the heart of Drazen Prelec’s chapter is the distinction between outcome utility and diagnostic utility. There is a particular distinction in the literature on causal networks (Pearl 2000), namely the distinction between observing and intervening, that maps onto Prelec’s distinction between diagnostic and outcome utility. I will explore the connection between both frameworks.
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  3. added 2018-03-30
    Coping with Ethical Uncertainty.John R. Welch - 2017 - Diametros 53:150-166.
    Most ethical decisions are conditioned by formidable uncertainty. Decision makers may lack reliable information about relevant facts, the consequences of actions, and the reactions of other people. Resources for dealing with uncertainty are available from standard forms of decision theory, but successful application to decisions under risk requires a great deal of quantitative information: point-valued probabilities of states and point-valued utilities of outcomes. When this information is not available, this paper recommends the use of a form of decision theory that (...)
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  4. added 2018-02-16
    Pragmatic Warrant for Frequentist Statistical Practice: The Case of High Energy Physics.Kent Staley - 2017 - Synthese 194 (2).
    Amidst long-running debates within the field, high energy physics has adopted a statistical methodology that primarily employs standard frequentist techniques such as significance testing and confidence interval estimation, but incorporates Bayesian methods for limited purposes. The discovery of the Higgs boson has drawn increased attention to the statistical methods employed within HEP. Here I argue that the warrant for the practice in HEP of relying primarily on frequentist methods can best be understood as pragmatic, in the sense that statistical methods (...)
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  5. added 2018-02-16
    Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings.Antony Eagle (ed.) - 2010 - Routledge.
    _Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings_ is the first anthology to collect essential readings in this important area of philosophy. Featuring the work of leading philosophers in the field such as Carnap, Hájek, Jeffrey, Joyce, Lewis, Loewer, Popper, Ramsey, van Fraassen, von Mises, and many others, the book looks in depth at the following key topics: subjective probability and credence probability updating: conditionalization and reflection Bayesian confirmation theory classical, logical, and evidential probability frequentism physical probability: propensities and objective chances. The book (...)
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  6. added 2017-09-11
    Frequencies, Probabilities, and Positivism.Gustav Bergmann - 1945 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 6 (1):26-44.
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  7. added 2017-03-29
    La Interpretación Frecuentista de la Probabilidad: Su Inaplicabilidad a Sucesos Singulares.José Luis Rolleri - 2003 - Signos Filosóficos 6 (11):159-171.
    The interpretation of probability, dominant in mathematics and other scientific disciplines, that defines the probability of an event S, relatively to a sequence or class of events C, as the quotient of the number of cases in which S occurs and the total number of occurrences of events in C, that..
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  8. added 2017-03-10
    A Frequency Theory of Probability.Ernest Nagel - 1933 - Journal of Philosophy 30 (20):533-554.
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  9. added 2017-02-26
    On the Frequency Theory of Probability.Henry Margenau - 1945 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 6 (1):11-25.
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  10. added 2017-02-15
    On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, Or: Probability Is Subjective Too!Mark Crovelli - 2009 - Libertarian Papers 1:26.
    Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the (...)
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  11. added 2017-02-15
    Has David Howden Vindicated Richard von Mises's Definition of Probability?Mark Crovelli - 2009 - Libertarian Papers 1:44.
    In my recent article on these pages I argued that members of the Austrian School of economics have adopted and defended a faulty definition of probability. I argued that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon the nature of the world in which we live. I claimed that if the nature of the world is such that every event and phenomenon which occurs has a cause of some sort, then probability must be defined subjectively; that is, “as a measure of (...)
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  12. added 2017-02-11
    Verbal Discrimination Learning: A Distinction Between Frequency and "Frequency-Rule" Effects.Hadassah Paul - 1972 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 94 (3):343.
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  13. added 2017-02-11
    Frequency Discrimination as a Function of Frequency of Repetition and Trials.Robert C. Radtke, Larry L. Jacoby & George D. Goedel - 1971 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1):78.
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  14. added 2017-02-07
    Book Review:Probability, Statistics and Truth Richard von Mises, Hilda Geiringer. [REVIEW]Wesley C. Salmon - 1959 - Philosophy of Science 26 (4):387-.
  15. added 2017-02-01
    Randomness and the Frequency Definition of Probability.F. C. Benenson - 1977 - Synthese 36 (2):207 - 233.
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  16. added 2017-01-27
    Traditional Logic and the Venn Diagram. [REVIEW]G. N. T. - 1972 - Review of Metaphysics 25 (3):551-552.
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  17. added 2017-01-18
    A Limiting Frequency Approach to Probability Based on the Weak Law of Large Numbers.Richard E. Neapolitan - 1992 - Philosophy of Science 59 (3):389-407.
    Von Mises defined a "physical" probability as a strict limit of the relative frequency of occurrence of an event in repeated trials. As a result of a number of criticisms of von Mises's approach, the more favored approach became the "propensity" interpretation. It is argued here that this interpretation is not compelling and that the only problem in von Mises's approach is the assumption that the relative frequency converges in a strict sense. This problem is then remedied by deducing the (...)
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  18. added 2016-12-05
    Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism.Alan Hájek - 2009 - Erkenntnis 70 (2):211-235.
    This is the sequel to my “Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism” ( Erkenntnis 1997), the second half of a long paper that attacks the two main forms of frequentism about probability. Hypothetical frequentism asserts: The probability of an attribute A in a reference class B is p iff the limit of the relative frequency of A ’s among the B ’s would be p if there were an infinite sequence of B ’s. I offer fifteen arguments against this analysis. I (...)
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  19. added 2016-10-13
    The Undetectable Difference: An Experimental Look at the ‘Problem’ of P-Values.William M. Goodman - 2010 - Statistical Literacy Website/Papers: Www.Statlit.Org/Pdf/2010GoodmanASA.Pdf.
    In the face of continuing assumptions by many scientists and journal editors that p-values provide a gold standard for inference, counter warnings are published periodically. But the core problem is not with p-values, per se. A finding that “p-value is less than α” could merely signal that a critical value has been exceeded. The question is why, when estimating a parameter, we provide a range (a confidence interval), but when testing a hypothesis about a parameter (e.g. µ = x) we (...)
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  20. added 2015-10-25
    What is Probability and Why Does It Matter.Zvonimir Šikić - 2014 - European Journal of Analytic Philosophy 10 (1):21-43.
    The idea that probability is a degree of rational belief seemed too vague for a foundation of a mathematical theory. It was certainly not obvious that degrees of rational belief had to be governed by the probability axioms as used by Laplace and other prestatistical probabilityst. The axioms seemed arbitrary in their interpretation. To eliminate the arbitrariness, the stat- isticians of the early 20th century drastically restricted the possible applications of the probability theory, by insisting that probabilities had to be (...)
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  21. added 2015-10-21
    Good Just Isn't Good Enough - Humean Chances and Boltzmannian Statistical Physics.Claus Beisbart - 2014 - In Maria C. Galavotti (ed.), New Directions in the Philosophy of Science, The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective 5. Springer. pp. 511-529.
    Statistical physicists assume a probability distribution over micro-states to explain thermodynamic behavior. The question of this paper is whether these probabilities are part of a best system and can thus be interpreted as Humean chances. I consider two Boltzmannian accounts of the Second Law, viz. a globalist and a localist one. In both cases, the probabilities fail to be chances because they have rivals that are roughly equally good. I conclude with the diagnosis that well-defined micro-probabilities under-estimate the robust character (...)
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  22. added 2015-07-10
    On the Correct Interpretation of P Values and the Importance of Random Variables.Guillaume Rochefort-Maranda - 2016 - Synthese 193 (6):1777-1793.
    The p value is the probability under the null hypothesis of obtaining an experimental result that is at least as extreme as the one that we have actually obtained. That probability plays a crucial role in frequentist statistical inferences. But if we take the word ‘extreme’ to mean ‘improbable’, then we can show that this type of inference can be very problematic. In this paper, I argue that it is a mistake to make such an interpretation. Under minimal assumptions about (...)
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  23. added 2015-04-04
    The One and the Many of Frequentism.Berna Kilic Eden - 1997 - Dissertation, The University of Chicago
    This dissertation is a conceptual and historical examination of the writings of nineteenth-century British frequentists Robert Leslie Ellis, John Stuart Mill, George Boole and John Venn. I focus on two issues in their works: the rise of anti-psychologism as a concern for objectivity, and the reference class problem as a challenge to the objectivity of probability. I thereby aim to reassess the modern claim that the frequency conceptions of probability provided an objective interpretation of probability. Anti-psychologism refers to the ways (...)
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  24. added 2015-02-16
    Remarks on the Idealist and Empiricist Interpretation of Frequentism: Robert Leslie Ellis Versus John Venn.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2014 - BSHM Bulletin: Journal of the British Society for the History of Mathematics 29 (3):184-195.
    The goal of this paper is to correct a widespread misconception about the work of Robert Leslie Ellis and John Venn, namely that it can be considered as the ‘British empiricist’ reaction against the traditional theory of probability. It is argued, instead, that there was no unified ‘British school’ of frequentism during the nineteenth century. Where Ellis arrived at frequentism from a metaphysical idealist transformation of probability theory’s mathematical calculations, Venn did so on the basis of an empiricist critique of (...)
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  25. added 2015-02-16
    Robert Leslie Ellis's Work on Philosophy of Science and the Foundations of Probability Theory.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2013 - Historia Mathematica 40 (4):423-454.
    The goal of this paper is to provide an extensive account of Robert Leslie Ellisʼs largely forgotten work on philosophy of science and probability theory. On the one hand, it is suggested that both his ‘idealist’ renovation of the Baconian theory of induction and a ‘realism’ vis-à-vis natural kinds were the result of a complex dialogue with the work of William Whewell. On the other hand, it is shown to what extent the combining of these two positions contributed to Ellisʼs (...)
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  26. added 2014-09-15
    Probability and Randomness.Antony Eagle - 2016 - In Alan Hájek & Christopher Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. pp. 440-459.
    Early work on the frequency theory of probability made extensive use of the notion of randomness, conceived of as a property possessed by disorderly collections of outcomes. Growing out of this work, a rich mathematical literature on algorithmic randomness and Kolmogorov complexity developed through the twentieth century, but largely lost contact with the philosophical literature on physical probability. The present chapter begins with a clarification of the notions of randomness and probability, conceiving of the former as a property of a (...)
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  27. added 2014-07-13
    Operationism, Probability and Quantum Mechanics.Maria Carla Galavotti - 1995 - Foundations of Science 1 (1):99-118.
    This paper investigates the kind of empiricism combined with an operationalist perspective that, in the first decades of our Century, gave rise to a turning point in theoretical physics and in probability theory. While quantum mechanics was taking shape, the classical (Laplacian) interpretation of probability gave way to two divergent perspectives: frequentism and subjectivism. Frequentism gained wide acceptance among theoretical physicists. Subjectivism, on the other hand, was never held to be a serious candidate for application to physical theories, despite the (...)
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  28. added 2014-05-15
    John Venn's Hypothetical Infinite Frequentism and Logic.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2014 - History and Philosophy of Logic 35 (3):248-271.
    The goal of this paper is to provide a detailed reading of John Venn's Logic of Chance as a work of logic or, more specifically, as a specific portion of the general system of so-called ‘material’ logic developed in his Principles of Empirical or Inductive Logic and to discuss it against the background of his Boolean-inspired views on the connection between logic and mathematics. It is by means of this situating of Venn 1866 [The Logic of Chance. An Essay on (...)
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  29. added 2014-05-15
    A Frequentist Interpretation of Probability for Model-Based Inductive Inference.Aris Spanos - 2013 - Synthese 190 (9):1555-1585.
    The main objective of the paper is to propose a frequentist interpretation of probability in the context of model-based induction, anchored on the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) and justifiable on empirical grounds. It is argued that the prevailing views in philosophy of science concerning induction and the frequentist interpretation of probability are unduly influenced by enumerative induction, and the von Mises rendering, both of which are at odds with frequentist model-based induction that dominates current practice. The differences between (...)
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  30. added 2014-05-15
    A Challenge To Ludwig Von Mises"s Theory Of Probability".Mark Crovelli - 2010 - Libertarian Papers 2:23.
    The most interesting and completely overlooked aspect of Ludwig von Mises’s theory of probability is the total absence of any explicit definition for probability in his theory. This paper examines Mises’s theory of probability in light of the fact that his theory possesses no definition for probability. It is argued, first, that Mises’s theory differs in important respects from his brother’s famous theory of probability. A defense of the subjective definition for probability is then provided, which is subsequently used to (...)
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  31. added 2014-05-15
    The Definition of Probability.Richard von Mises - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge.
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  32. added 2014-05-15
    John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig von Mises on Probability.Ludwig van den Hauwe - 2010 - Journal of Libertarian Studies 22 (1):471-507.
    The economic paradigms of Ludwig von Mises on the one hand and of John Maynard Keynes on the other have been correctly recognized as antithetical at the theoretical level, and as antagonistic with respect to their practical and public policy implications. Characteristically they have also been vindicated by opposing sides of the political spectrum. Nevertheless the respective views of these authors with respect to the meaning and interpretation of probability exhibit a closer conceptual affinity than has been acknowledged in the (...)
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  33. added 2014-04-03
    Review Essay: A Theory of Logical Frequentism. [REVIEW]Peter M. Williams - 1992 - Synthese 91 (3):337 - 346.
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  34. added 2014-04-02
    Jeffrey Conditionalization, the Principal Principle, the Desire as Belief Thesis, and Adams's Thesis.Ittay Nissan-Rozen - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (4):axs039.
    I show that David Lewis’s principal principle is not preserved under Jeffrey conditionalization. Using this observation, I argue that Lewis’s reason for rejecting the desire as belief thesis and Adams’s thesis applies also to his own principal principle. 1 Introduction2 Adams’s Thesis, the Desire as Belief Thesis, and the Principal Principle3 Jeffrey Conditionalization4 The Principal Principles Not Preserved under Jeffrey Conditionalization5 Inadmissible Experiences.
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  35. added 2014-03-29
    “Mises Redux” — Redux: Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism.Alan Hájek - 1996 - Erkenntnis 45 (2-3):209--27.
    According to finite frequentism, the probability of an attribute A in a finite reference class B is the relative frequency of actual occurrences of A within B. I present fifteen arguments against this position.
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  36. added 2014-03-26
    On Chance in Causal Loops.J. Berkovitz - 2001 - Mind 110 (437):1-23.
    A common line of argument for the impossibility of closed causal loops is that they would involve causal paradoxes. The usual reply is that such loops impose heavy consistency constraints on the nature of causal connections in them; constraints that are overlooked by the impossibility arguments. Hugh Mellor has maintained that arguments for the possibility of causal loops also overlook some constraints, which are related to the chances (single-case, objective probabilities) that causes give to their effects. And he argues that (...)
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  37. added 2014-03-26
    Robert Leslie Ellis and John Stuart Mill on the One and the Many of Frequentism.Berna Kilinç - 2000 - British Journal for the History of Philosophy 8 (2):251-274.
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  38. added 2014-03-25
    Quantum Mechanics and Frequentism: A Reply to Ismael.M. Strevens - 1996 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47 (4):575-577.
  39. added 2014-03-24
    The Concept of Probability in Physics: An Analytic Version of von Mises’ Interpretation.Louis Vervoort - manuscript
    In the following we will investigate whether von Mises’ frequency interpretation of probability can be modified to make it philosophically acceptable. We will reject certain elements of von Mises’ theory, but retain others. In the interpretation we propose we do not use von Mises’ often criticized ‘infinite collectives’ but we retain two essential claims of his interpretation, stating that probability can only be defined for events that can be repeated in similar conditions, and that exhibit frequency stabilization. The central idea (...)
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  40. added 2014-03-17
    The Logic of Chance.John Venn - 1888 - Dover Publications.
    No mathematical background is necessary to appreciate this classic of probability theory, which remains unsurpassed in its clarity, readability, and sheer charm. Its author, British logician John Venn (1834-1923), popularized the famous Venn Diagrams that are commonly used in teaching elementary mathematics.
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  41. added 2014-03-12
    Repertoires, Frequentism, and Predictability.Noeul Bonneuil - 2004 - History and Theory 43 (1):117–123.
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  42. added 2014-03-12
    Some Thoughts on Wesley Salmon’s Contributions to the Philosophy of Probability.Paul Humphreys - 2004 - Philosophy of Science 71 (5):942-949.
    Wesley Salmon provided three classic criteria of adequacy for satisfactory interpretations of probability. A fourth criterion is suggested here. A distinction is drawn between frequency‐driven probability models and theory‐driven probability models and it is argued that single case accounts of chance are superior to frequency accounts at least for the latter. Finally it is suggested that theories of chance should be required only to be contingently true, a position which is a natural extension of Salmon's ontic account of probabilistic causality (...)
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  43. added 2014-03-09
    Should Bayesians Bet Where Frequentists Fear to Tread?Max Albert - 2005 - Philosophy of Science 72 (4):584-593.
  44. added 2014-03-06
    Reichenbach’s Posits Reposited.David Atkinson & Jeanne Peijnenburg - 2007 - Erkenntnis 69 (1):93 - 108.
    Reichenbach’s use of ‘posits’ to defend his frequentistic theory of probability has been criticized on the grounds that it makes unfalsifiable predictions. The justice of this criticism has blinded many to Reichenbach’s second use of a posit, one that can fruitfully be applied to current debates within epistemology. We show first that Reichenbach’s alternative type of posit creates a difficulty for epistemic foundationalists, and then that its use is equivalent to a particular kind of Jeffrey conditionalization. We conclude that, under (...)
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  45. added 2013-08-05
    Chance.Isaac Levi - 1990 - Philosophical Topics 18 (2):117-149.
  46. added 2013-07-14
    Chance.Henry E. Kyburg - 1976 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 5 (3):355-393.
  47. added 2012-05-27
    A Philosophical Guide to Chance: Physical Probability.Toby Handfield - 2012 - Cambridge University Press.
    Contents: 1. The concept of chance; 2. The classical picture; 3. Ways the world might be; 4. Possibilities of thought; 5. Chance in phase space; 6. Possibilist theories of chance; 7. Actualist theories of chance; 8. Anti-realist theories of chance; 9. Chance in quantum physics; 10. Chance in branching worlds; 11. Time and evidence; 12. Debunking chance.
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  48. added 2011-06-09
    Probability Out Of Determinism.Michael Strevens - 2011 - In Claus Beisbart & Stephan Hartmann (eds.), Probabilities in Physics. Oxford University Press. pp. 339--364.
    This paper offers a metaphysics of physical probability in (or if you prefer, truth conditions for probabilistic claims about) deterministic systems based on an approach to the explanation of probabilistic patterns in deterministic systems called the method of arbitrary functions. Much of the appeal of the method is its promise to provide an account of physical probability on which probability assignments have the ability to support counterfactuals about frequencies. It is argued that the eponymous arbitrary functions are of little philosophical (...)
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  49. added 2011-01-09
    Counting Steps: A Finitist Interpretation of Objective Probability in Physics.Amit Hagar & Giuseppe Sergioli - 2015 - Epistemologia 37 (2):262-275.
    We propose a new interpretation of objective deterministic chances in statistical physics based on physical computational complexity. This notion applies to a single physical system (be it an experimental set--up in the lab, or a subsystem of the universe), and quantifies (1) the difficulty to realize a physical state given another, (2) the 'distance' (in terms of physical resources) from a physical state to another, and (3) the size of the set of time--complexity functions that are compatible with the physical (...)
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  50. added 2009-06-20
    Objectively Homogeneous Reference Classes.Wesley C. Salmon - 1977 - Synthese 36 (4):399 - 414.
1 — 50 / 54