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  1. R. A. A. (1957). Probability in Logic. [REVIEW] Review of Metaphysics 11 (2):348-348.
  2. Edward H. Allen (1976). Negative Probabilities and the Uses of Signed Probability Theory. Philosophy of Science 43 (1):53-70.
    The use of negative probabilities is discussed for certain problems in which a stochastic process approach is indicated. An extension of probability theory to include signed (negative and positive) probabilities is outlined and both philosophical and axiomatic examinations of negative probabilities are presented. Finally, a class of applications illustrates the use and implications of signed probability theory.
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  3. Carl Martin Allwood & Marcus Selart (2010). Decision Making: Social and Creative Dimensions. In Carl Martin Allwood & Marcus Selart (eds.), Decision making: Social and creative dimensions. Springer Media
    This volume presents research that integrates decision making and creativity within the social contexts in which these processes occur. The volume is an essential addition to and expansion of recent approaches to decision making. Such approaches attempt to incorporate more of the psychological and socio-cultural context in which human decision making takes place. The authors come from different disciplines and also belong to a broad spectrum of research traditions. They present innovative chapters dealing with both theoretical and empirical aspects of (...)
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  4. Carl Martin Allwood & Marcus Selart (2010). Social and Creative Decision Making. In Carl Martin Allwood & Marcus Selart (eds.), Decision making: Social and creative dimensions. Springer Media
    Research on human decision making is at the present time undergoing rapid changes. From previously being much focused on models and approaches with an origin in economy, much of the present day research finds its inspiration from disciplinary approaches concerned with incorporating more of the context that the decision making takes place in. This context includes psychological aspects of the decision maker and social-cultural aspects of the situation he or she acts in. All human decision making occurs in dynamically changing (...)
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  5. Arnold Baise (2013). Probability, Objectivity, and Induction. Journal of Ayn Rand Studies 13 (2):81-95.
    The main purpose of this article is to use Ayn Rand’s analysis of the meaning of objectivity to clarify the much-discussed question of whether probability is “objective” or “subjective.” This results in a classification of probability theories as frequentist, subjective Bayesian, or objective Bayesian. The work of objective Bayesian E. T. Jaynes is emphasized, and is used to provide a formal definition of probability. The relation between probability and induction is covered briefly, with probability theory presented as the basis of (...)
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  6. Sorin Bangu (2010). On Bertrand's Paradox. Analysis 70 (1):30-35.
    The Principle of Indifference is a central element of the ‘classical’ conception of probability, but, for all its strong intuitive appeal, it is widely believed that it faces a devastating objection: the so-called (by Poincare´) ‘Bertrand paradoxes’ (in essence, cases in which the same probability question receives different answers). The puzzle has fascinated many since its discovery, and a series of clever solutions (followed promptly by equally clever rebuttals) have been proposed. However, despite the long-standing interest in this problem, an (...)
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  7. Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer (2011). Updating: A Psychologically Basic Situation of Probability Revision. Thinking and Reasoning 16 (4):253-287.
    The Bayesian model has been used in psychology as the standard reference for the study of probability revision. In the first part of this paper we show that this traditional choice restricts the scope of the experimental investigation of revision to a stable universe. This is the case of a situation that, technically, is known as focusing. We argue that it is essential for a better understanding of human probability revision to consider another situation called updating (Katsuno & Mendelzon, 1992), (...)
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  8. Jonny Blamey (2013). Upping the Stakes and the Preface Paradox. In Frank Zenker (ed.), Bayesian Argumentation. Springer 195-210.
    Abstract The Preface Paradox, first introduced by David Makinson (1961), presents a plausible scenario where an agent is evidentially certain of each of a set of propositions without being evidentially certain of the conjunction of the set of propositions. Given reasonable assumptions about the nature of evidential certainty, this appears to be a straightforward contradiction. We solve the paradox by appeal to stake size sensitivity, which is the claim that evidential probability is sensitive to stake size. The argument is that (...)
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  9. Jonny Blamey (2013). Upping the Stakes and the Preface Paradox. In Frank Zenker (ed.), Bayesian Argumentation. Springer 195-210.
  10. G. Spencer Brown & G. B. Keene (1957). Symposium: Randomness. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 31:145 - 160.
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  11. Franz Dietrich & Christian List (forthcoming). Probabilistic Opinion Pooling. In A. Hajek & C. Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Philosophy and Probability. Oxford University Press
    Suppose several individuals (e.g., experts on a panel) each assign probabilities to some events. How can these individual probability assignments be aggregated into a single collective probability assignment? This article reviews several proposed solutions to this problem. We focus on three salient proposals: linear pooling (the weighted or unweighted linear averaging of probabilities), geometric pooling (the weighted or unweighted geometric averaging of probabilities), and multiplicative pooling (where probabilities are multiplied rather than averaged). We present axiomatic characterisations of each class of (...)
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  12. Antony Eagle (2010). Chance Versus Randomness. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
    This article explores the connection between objective chance and the randomness of a sequence of outcomes. Discussion is focussed around the claim that something happens by chance iff it is random. This claim is subject to many objections. Attempts to save it by providing alternative theories of chance and randomness, involving indeterminism, unpredictability, and reductionism about chance, are canvassed. The article is largely expository, with particular attention being paid to the details of algorithmic randomness, a topic relatively unfamiliar to philosophers.
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  13. Antony Eagle (2005). Randomness Is Unpredictability. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56 (4):749-790.
    The concept of randomness has been unjustly neglected in recent philosophical literature, and when philosophers have thought about it, they have usually acquiesced in views about the concept that are fundamentally flawed. After indicating the ways in which these accounts are flawed, I propose that randomness is to be understood as a special case of the epistemic concept of the unpredictability of a process. This proposal arguably captures the intuitive desiderata for the concept of randomness; at least it should suggest (...)
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  14. Kenny Easwaran (2011). Varieties of Conditional Probability. In Prasanta Bandyopadhyay & Malcolm Forster (eds.), Handbook for Philosophy of Statistics. North Holland
    I consider the notions of logical probability, degree of belief, and objective chance, and argue that a different formalism for conditional probability is appropriate for each.
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  15. Kenny Easwaran (2010). Logic and Probability. Journal of the Indian Council of Philosophical Research 27 (2):229-253.
    As is clear from the other articles in this volume, logic has applications in a broad range of areas of philosophy. If logic is taken to include the mathematical disciplines of set theory, model theory, proof theory, and recursion theory (as well as first-order logic, second-order logic, and modal logic), then the only other area of mathematics with such wide-ranging applications in philosophy is probability theory.
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  16. Daniel Eek & Marcus Selart (2009). The Choice Between Allocation Priciples. International Journal of Psychology 44 (2):109-119.
    One hundred and ninety participants (95 undergraduates and 95 employees) responded to a factorial survey in which a number of case-based organizational allocation tasks were described. Participants were asked to imagine themselves as employees in fictitious organizations and chose among three allocations of employee development schemes invested by the manager in different work groups. The allocations regarded how such investments should be allocated between two parties. Participants chose twice, once picking the fairest and once the best allocation. One between-subjects factor (...)
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  17. Ellery Eells, Brian Skyrms & Ernest W. Adams (eds.) (1994). Probability and Conditionals: Belief Revision and Rational Decision. Cambridge University Press.
    This is a 'state of the art' collection of essays on the relation between probabilities, especially conditional probabilities, and conditionals. It provides new negative results which sharply limit the ways conditionals can be related to conditional probabilities. There are also positive ideas and results which will open up new areas of research. The collection is intended to honour Ernest W. Adams, whose seminal work is largely responsible for creating this area of inquiry. As well as describing, evaluating, and applying Adams (...)
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  18. David Ellerman, On the Duality Between Existence and Information.
    Recent developments in pure mathematics and in mathematical logic have uncovered a fundamental duality between "existence" and "information." In logic, the duality is between the Boolean logic of subsets and the logic of quotient sets, equivalence relations, or partitions. The analogue to an element of a subset is the notion of a distinction of a partition, and that leads to a whole stream of dualities or analogies--including the development of new logical foundations for information theory parallel to Boole's development of (...)
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  19. Branden Fitelson & Lara Buchak, Separability Assumptions in Scoring-Rule-Based Arguments for Probabilism.
    - In decision theory, an agent is deciding how to value a gamble that results in different outcomes in different states. Each outcome gets a utility value for the agent.
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  20. Joseph S. Fulda, Remarks on the Argument From Design.
    Gives two pared-down versions of the argument from design, which may prove more persuasive as to a Creator, discusses briefly the mathematics underpinning disbelief and nonbelief and its misuse and some proper uses, moves to why the full argument is needed anyway, viz., to demonstrate Providence, offers a theory as to how miracles (open and hidden) occur, viz. the replacement of any particular mathematics underlying a natural law (save logic) by its most appropriate nonstandard variant. -/- Note: This is an (...)
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  21. Shan Gao, Derivation of the Meaning of the Wave Function.
    We show that the physical meaning of the wave function can be derived based on the established parts of quantum mechanics. It turns out that the wave function represents the state of random discontinuous motion of particles, and its modulus square determines the probability density of the particles appearing in certain positions in space.
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  22. Shan Gao, Protective Measurement and the Meaning of the Wave Function.
    This article analyzes the implications of protective measurement for the meaning of the wave function. According to protective measurement, a charged quantum system has mass and charge density proportional to the modulus square of its wave function. It is shown that the mass and charge density is not real but effective, formed by the ergodic motion of a localized particle with the total mass and charge of the system. Moreover, it is argued that the ergodic motion is not continuous but (...)
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  23. Shan Gao, The Wave Function and Its Evolution.
    The meaning of the wave function and its evolution are investigated. First, we argue that the wave function in quantum mechanics is a description of random discontinuous motion of particles, and the modulus square of the wave function gives the probability density of the particles being in certain locations in space. Next, we show that the linear non-relativistic evolution of the wave function of an isolated system obeys the free Schrödinger equation due to the requirements of spacetime translation invariance and (...)
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  24. Tommy Gärling, Niklas Karlsson, Joakim Romanus & Marcus Selart (1997). Influences of the Past on Choices of the Future. In Rob Ranyard, Ray Crozier & Ola Svenson (eds.), Decision making: Cognitive models and explanations. Routledge 167-189.
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  25. Tommy Gärling, Niklas Karlsson & Marcus Selart (1999). The Role of Mental Accounting in Everyday Economic Decision Making. In Peter Juslin & Henry Montgomery (eds.), Judgment and decision making. Erlbaum 199-218.
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  26. D. Gillies (2007). Maria Carla Galavotti. Philosophical Introduction to Probability. Stanford: Center for the Study of Language and Information Publications, 2005. Pp. X + 265. ISBN 1-57586-490-8 (Pbk), 1-57586-489-4 (Hardback). [REVIEW] Philosophia Mathematica 15 (1):129-132.
    Galavotti begins her book by stressing the centrality of probability to a whole range of philosophical problems. She writes 1: "Probability invests all branches of philosophical investigation, from epistemology to moral and political philosophy, and impinges upon major controversies, like that between determinism and indeterminism, or between free will and moral obligation, and problems such as: ‘What degree of certainty can human knowledge attain?’ ‘What is the relationship between probability and certainty?’" She then explains that her book will focus on (...)
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  27. Donald Gillies (2010). An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals). Routledge.
    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises’ views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises’ definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should (...)
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  28. Donald Gillies (1994). Review of John Earman Bayes or Bust? [REVIEW] Mind 103 (411):376-379.
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  29. James Goetz (2006). Classical Probability, Shakespearean Sonnets, and Multiverse Hypotheses. International Society for Complexity, Information, and Design Archive.
    We evaluate classical probability in relation to the random generation of a Shakespearean sonnet by a typing monkey and the random generation of universes in a World Ensemble based on various multiverse models involving eternal inflation. We calculate that it would take a monkey roughly 10^942 years to type a Shakespearean sonnet, which pushes the scenario into a World Ensemble. The evaluation of a World Ensemble based on various models of eternal inflation suggests that there is no middle ground between (...)
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  30. Amit Hagar (2014). Demons in Physics. [REVIEW] Metascience 23 (2):1-10.
    In their book The Road to Maxwell's Demon Hemmo & Shenker re-describe the foundations of statistical mechanics from a purely empiricist perspective. The result is refreshing, as well as intriguing, and it goes against much of the literature on the demon. Their conclusion, however, that Maxwell's demon is consistent with statistical mechanics, still leaves open the question of why such a demon hasn't yet been observed on a macroscopic scale. This essay offers a sketch of what a possible answer could (...)
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  31. Alan Hájek (2008). A Philosopher’s Guide to Probability. In G. Bammer & M. Smithson (eds.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives. Routledge
    Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities.
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  32. Sven Hansson (2009). From the Casino to the Jungle. Synthese 168 (3):423-432.
    Clear-cut cases of decision-making under risk (known probabilities) are unusual in real life. The gambler’s decisions at the roulette table are as close as we can get to this type of decision-making. In contrast, decision-making under uncertainty (unknown probabilities) can be exemplified by a decision whether to enter a jungle that may contain unknown dangers. Life is usually more like an expedition into an unknown jungle than a visit to the casino. Nevertheless, it is common in decision-supporting disciplines to proceed (...)
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  33. Cael L. Hasse, A Comprehensive Theory of Induction and Abstraction, Part I.
    I present a solution to the epistemological or characterisation problem of induction. In part I, Bayesian Confirmation Theory (BCT) is discussed as a good contender for such a solution but with a fundamental explanatory gap (along with other well discussed problems); useful assigned probabilities like priors require substantive degrees of belief about the world. I assert that one does not have such substantive information about the world. Consequently, an explanation is needed for how one can be licensed to act as (...)
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  34. James Hawthorne (2014). A Primer on Rational Consequence Relations, Popper Functions, and Their Ranked Structures. Studia Logica 102 (4):731-749.
    Rational consequence relations and Popper functions provide logics for reasoning under uncertainty, the former purely qualitative, the latter probabilistic. But few researchers seem to be aware of the close connection between these two logics. I’ll show that Popper functions are probabilistic versions of rational consequence relations. I’ll not assume that the reader is familiar with either logic. I present them, and explicate the relationship between them, from the ground up. I’ll also present alternative axiomatizations for each logic, showing them to (...)
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  35. James Hawthorne (2004). Three Models of Sequential Belief Updating on Uncertain Evidence. Journal of Philosophical Logic 33 (1):89-123.
    Jeffrey updating is a natural extension of Bayesian updating to cases where the evidence is uncertain. But, the resulting degrees of belief appear to be sensitive to the order in which the uncertain evidence is acquired, a rather un-Bayesian looking effect. This order dependence results from the way in which basic Jeffrey updating is usually extended to sequences of updates. The usual extension seems very natural, but there are other plausible ways to extend Bayesian updating that maintain order-independence. I will (...)
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  36. James Hawthorne (1996). On the Logic of Nonmonotonic Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities. Journal of Philosophical Logic 25 (2):185-218.
    I will describe the logics of a range of conditionals that behave like conditional probabilities at various levels of probabilistic support. Families of these conditionals will be characterized in terms of the rules that their members obey. I will show that for each conditional, →, in a given family, there is a probabilistic support level r and a conditional probability function P such that, for all sentences C and B, 'C → B' holds just in case P[B | C] ≥ (...)
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  37. Wesley H. Holliday & Thomas F. Icard (2013). Measure Semantics and Qualitative Semantics for Epistemic Modals. Proceedings of SALT 23:514-534.
    In this paper, we explore semantics for comparative epistemic modals that avoid the entailment problems shown to result from Kratzer’s (1991) semantics by Yalcin (2006, 2009, 2010). In contrast to the alternative semantics presented by Yalcin and Lassiter (2010, 2011), based on finitely additive probability measures, we introduce semantics based on qualitatively additive measures, as well as semantics based on purely qualitative orderings, including orderings on propositions derived from orderings on worlds in the tradition of Kratzer (1991). All of these (...)
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  38. Andrew Holster, The Time Flow Manifesto CHAPTER 2 TIME SYMMETRY IN PHYSICS.
    This chapter starts with a simple conventional presentation of time reversal in physics, and then returns to analyse it, rejects the conventional analysis, and establishes correct principles in their place.
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  39. Andrew Holster, The Time Flow Manifesto CHAPTER 3 REVERSIBILTY IN PHYSICS.
    The conventional claims and concepts of 5* - 8* are a hang-over from the classical theory of thermodynamics – i.e. thermodynamics based on a fully deterministic micro-theory, developed in the time of Boltzmann, Loschmidt and Gibbs in the late C19th. The classical theory has well-known ‘reversibility paradoxes’ when applied to the universe as a whole. But the introduction of intrinsic probabilities in quantum mechanics, and its consequent time asymmetry, fundamentally changes the picture.
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  40. James M. Joyce (2005). How Probabilities Reflect Evidence. Philosophical Perspectives 19 (1):153–178.
  41. Niklas Karlsson, Tommy Gärling & Marcus Selart (1999). Explanations of Effects of Prior Income Changes on Bying Decisions. Journal of Economic Psychology 20:449-463.
    Two experiments with undergraduates as subjects tested explanations of how a prior temporary income change influences choices between buying and deferred buying. In Experiment 1 predictions from the behavioral life-cycle theory (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988), the renewable resources model (Linville & Fischer, 1991) and the loss-sensitivity principle (Garling & Romanus, 1997) were contrasted. The results are inconsistent with the latter two explanations since the framing of buying as positive (buying a new model of a product) or negative (replacing a broken (...)
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  42. Niklas Karlsson, Tommy Gärling & Marcus Selart (1997). Effects of Mental Accounting on Intertemporal Choice. Göteborg Psychological Reports 27 (5).
    Two experiments with undergraduates as subjects were carried out with the aim of replicating and extending previous results showing that the implication of the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis (H. M. Shefrin & R. H. Thaler, 1988) that people classify assets in different mental accounts (current income, current assets, and future income) may explain how consumption choices are influenced by temporary income changes. In both experiments subjects made fictitious choices between paying for a good in cash or according to a more expensive (...)
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  43. Pawel Kawalec (2012). Bayesianizm w polskiej tradycji probabilizmu – studium stanowiska Kazimierza Ajdukiewicza. Ruch Filozoficzny 1 (1).
    Abstract The opening section outlines probabilism in the 20th century philosophy and shortly discusses the major accomplishments of Polish probabilist thinkers. A concise characterization of Bayesianism as the major recent form of probabilism follows. It builds upon the core personalist version of Bayesianism towards more objectively oriented versions thereof. The problem of a priori probability is shortly discussed. A tentative characterization of Kazimierz Ajdukiewicz’s standpoint regarding the inductive inference is cast in Bayesian terms. His objections against it presented in Pragmatic (...)
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  44. John-Michael Kuczynski (2006). THE ANALOGUE-DIGITAL DISTINCTION AND THE COGENCY OF KANT'S TRANSCENDENTAL ARGUMENTS. Existentia: An International Journal of Philosophy (3-4):279-320.
    Hume's attempt to show that deduction is the only legitimate form of inference presupposes that enumerative induction is the only non-deductive form of inference. In actuality, enumerative induction is not even a form of inference: all supposed cases of enumerative induction are disguised cases of Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE), so far as they aren't simply cases of mentation of a purely associative kind and, consequently, of a kind that is non-inductive and otherwise non-inferential. The justification for IBE lies (...)
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  45. Bård Kuvaas & Marcus Selart (2004). Effects of Attribute Framing on Cognitive Processing and Evaluation. Organizional Behavior and Human Decision Processes 95:198-207.
    Whereas there is extensive documentation that attribute framing influences the content of peoples thought, we generally know less about how it affects the processes assumed to precede those thoughts. While existing explanations for attribute framing effects rely completely on valence-based associative processing, the results obtained in the present study are also consistent with the notion that negative framing stimulates more effortful and thorough information processing than positive framing. Specifically, results from a simulated business decision-making experiment showed that decision makers receiving (...)
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  46. Michael LaPorte (2013). Philosophy Paper.
  47. Wing-Shing Lee & Marcus Selart (2014). The Influence of Emotions on Trust in Ethical Decision Making. Problems a Perspectives in Management 12 (4):573-580.
    This paper attempts to delineate the interaction between trust, emotion, and ethical decision making. The authors first propose that trust can either incite an individual toward ethical decisions or drag him or her away from ethical decisions, depending on different situations. The authors then postulate that the feeling of guilt is central in understanding how trust affects the ethical decision making process. Several propositions based on these assumptions are introduced and implications for practice discussed.
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  48. Christian List & Marcus Pivato (2015). Emergent Chance. Philosophical Review 124 (1):119-152.
    We offer a new argument for the claim that there can be non-degenerate objective chance (“true randomness”) in a deterministic world. Using a formal model of the relationship between different levels of description of a system, we show how objective chance at a higher level can coexist with its absence at a lower level. Unlike previous arguments for the level-specificity of chance, our argument shows, in a precise sense, that higher-level chance does not collapse into epistemic probability, despite higher-level properties (...)
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  49. Rupert Macey-Dare, Expected Loss Balance of Probability Theorem.
    This paper shows how for every Contingent Loss whose associated probability fails the Balance of Probability test, there is a corresponding Expected Loss whose probability passes the Balance of Probability test and so constitutes a preferable head of damage for a civil claim. Recent English Mesothelioma and Asbestos-related judgements including Gregg v Scott 2005, Fairchild v Glenhaven 2002 and Barker v Corus 2006 are considered in the light of this theorem.
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  50. Rupert Macey-Dare, Expected Loss Divisibility Theorem.
    This paper proposes and analyses the following theorem: For every total actual loss caused to a claimant with given probabilities by a single unidentified member of a defined group, there is a corresponding total expected loss, divisible and separable into discrete component expected sub-losses, each individually "caused" by a corresponding specific member of that defined group. Moreover, for every total estimated loss caused to a claimant in the past or present or prospectively in the future with estimable probabilities by one (...)
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