Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
Assistant editor: Joshua Luczak (University of Western Ontario)
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  1. Symposium on “the Epistemical Application of the Concept of Probability in the Empirical Sciences”.K. Abt - 1987 - Erkenntnis 26 (3):423-427.
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  2. Die Falsifikation Statistischer Hypothesen.Max Albert - 1992 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 23 (1):1 - 32.
    The Falsification of Statistical Hypotheses. It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by (...)
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  3. Die Falsifikation Statistischer HypothesenThe Falsification of Statistical Hypotheses.Max Albert - 1992 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 23 (1):1-32.
    It is widely held that falsification of statistical hypotheses is impossible. This view is supported by an analysis of the most important theories of statistical testing: these theories are not compatible with falsificationism. On the other hand, falsificationism yields a basically viable solution to the problems of explanation, prediction and theory testing in a deterministic context. The present paper shows how to introduce the falsificationist solution into the realm of statistics. This is done mainly by applying the concept of empirical (...)
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  4. Mr. Kneale on Probability and Induction I.F. J. Anscombe - 1951 - Mind 60 (239):299-309.
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  5. Are Probabilities Necessary for Evolutionary Explanations?André Ariew - 1998 - Biology and Philosophy 13 (2):245-253.
    Several philosophers of science have advanced an instrumentalist thesis about the use of probabilities in evolutionary biology. I investigate the consequences of instrumentalism on evolutionary explanations. I take issue with Barbara Horan's (1994) argument that probabilities are unnecessary to explain evolutionary change given the underlying deterministic character of evolutionary processes. First, I question Horan's deterministic assumption. Then, I attempt to undermine her Laplacian argument by demonstrating that whether probabilities are necessary depends upon the sort of questions one is asking.
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  6. Iterative Probability Kinematics.Horacio Arló-Costa & Richmond Thomason - 2001 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 30 (5):479-524.
    Following the pioneer work of Bruno De Finetti, conditional probability spaces (allowing for conditioning with events of measure zero) have been studied since (at least) the 1950's.
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  7. What Makes Induction Rational?David Malet Armstrong - 1991 - Dialogue 30 (4):503-11.
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  8. How to Commit the Gambler's Fallacy and Get Away with It.Davis Baird & Richard E. Otte - 1982 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1982:169 - 180.
    In a recent article Ian Hacking argues that there can be cases where no probabilities may correctly be ascribed to individual members of a population, while probabilities are correctly ascribable to the population as a whole. In this paper a simple artificial coin-flipping model for such probabilities, not 'grounded from below' is constructed. The inferences licensed by this model and a consequence of the model for the theory of statistical tests is explored.
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  9. Proof of Kolmogorovian Censorship.Gergely Bana & Thomas Durt - 1997 - Foundations of Physics 27 (10):1355-1373.
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  10. A Commentary on Mel Rutherford’s ‘On the Use and Misuse of the “Two Children” Brainteaser’.Maya Bar-Hillel - 2010 - Pragmatics and Cognitionpragmatics and Cognition 18 (1):175-179.
    Rutherford criticizes the way some people have analyzed the 2-children problem, claiming that slight nuances in the problem's formulation can change the correct answer. However, his own data demonstrate that even when there is a unique correct answer, participants give intuitive answers that differ from it systematically — replicating the data reported by those he criticizes. Thus, his critique reduces to an admonition to use care in formulating and analyzing this brainteaser — which is always a good idea — but (...)
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  11. Two Examples in Noncommutative Probability.Dror Bar-Natan - 1989 - Foundations of Physics 19 (1):97-104.
    A simple noncommutative probability theory is presented, and two examples for the difference between that theory and the classical theory are shown. The first example is the well-known formulation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in terms of a variance inequality and the second example is an interpretatio of the Bell paradox in terms of noncommuntative probability.
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  12. Betting on Conditionals.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2011 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197.
    A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B , and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B . The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional— true , false , or void for indicative conditionals and win , lose (...)
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  13. How to Solve Probability Teasers-Discussion.M. Barhillel - 1989 - Philosophy of Science 56 (2):348-358.
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  14. Ensemble Steering, Weak Self-Duality, and the Structure of Probabilistic Theories.Howard Barnum, Carl Philipp Gaebler & Alexander Wilce - 2013 - Foundations of Physics 43 (12):1411-1427.
    In any probabilistic theory, we say that a bipartite state ω on a composite system AB steers its marginal state ω B if, for any decomposition of ω B as a mixture ω B =∑ i p i β i of states β i on B, there exists an observable {a i } on A such that the conditional states $\omega_{B|a_{i}}$ are exactly the states β i . This is always so for pure bipartite states in quantum mechanics, a fact (...)
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  15. The Second Law of Probability Dynamics.Martin Barrett & Elliott Sober - 1994 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45 (4):941-953.
    When the probability of causes, and the probability of effects, given causes, are each randomly assigned, entropy ‘usually’ increases.
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  16. Causality, Probability and Organization.E. Bass Robert - 1951 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 12 (4):562-564.
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  17. The One Systematically Ambiguous Concept of Probability.William H. Baumer - 1967 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 28 (2):264-268.
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  18. Book Reviews. [REVIEW]David Bellhouse - 1996 - Philosophia Mathematica 4 (3):290-291.
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  19. Some Aspects of Probability and Induction (I).Jonathan Bennett - 1956 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (27):220-230.
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  20. Some Aspects of Probability and Induction (II).Jonathan Bennett - 1956 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (28):316-322.
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  21. Calcul des Probabilités.Joseph Louis François Bertrand - 1888 - Gauthier-Villars Et Fils.
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  22. Probability and Infinite Sets.Thomas Bittner - 1993 - Cogito 7 (2):150-152.
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  23. Concerning a Controversy on the Meaning of 'Probability'.Siri Blom - 1955 - Theoria 21 (2-3):65-98.
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  24. The Suppression of Modus Ponens as a Case of Pragmatic Preconditional Reasoning.Jean-Francois Bonnefon & Denis J. Hilton - 2002 - Thinking and Reasoning 8 (1):21 – 40.
    The suppression of the Modus Ponens inference is described as a loss of confidence in the conclusion C of an argument ''If A1 then C; If A2 then C; A1'' where A2 is a requirement for C to happen. It is hypothesised that this loss of confidence is due to the derivation of the conversational implicature ''there is a chance that A2 might not be satisfied'', and that different syntactic introductions of the requirement A2 (e.g., ''If C then A2'') will (...)
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  25. Probability and Certainty.Emile Borel - 1963 - New York: Walker.
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  26. Multidimensional Possible-World Semantics for Conditionals.R. Bradley - 2012 - Philosophical Review 121 (4):539-571.
    Adams’s Thesis, the claim that the probabilities of indicative conditionals equal the conditional probabilities of their consequents given their antecedents, has proven impossible to accommodate within orthodox possible-world semantics. This essay proposes a modification to the orthodoxy that removes this impossibility. The starting point is a proposal by Jeffrey and Stalnaker that conditionals take semantic values in the unit interval, interpreting these (à la McGee) as their expected truth-values at a world. Their theories imply a false principle, namely, that the (...)
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  27. Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem. [REVIEW]Steven J. Brams & D. Marc Kilgour - 1998 - Theory and Decision 45 (3):263-289.
    A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in (...)
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  28. À propos du terme "probabilité".H. Breny - 1983 - Logique Et Analyse 26 (2):129.
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  29. Probability Logic.John P. Burgess - 1969 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 34 (2):264-274.
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  30. Probability and Opinion.Edmund F. Byrne - 1968 - The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff.
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  31. The Common Thread of Induction. [REVIEW]Peter C. -H. Cheng - 1991 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (2):269-272.
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  32. Probability Theory. I. Background.C. W. Churchman - 1945 - Philosophy of Science 12 (3):147-157.
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  33. Much Ado About Probability.C. West Churchman - 1947 - Philosophy of Science 14 (2):176-178.
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  34. Total Control and Chance in Musics: A Philosophical Analysis.Robert Charles Clark - 1970 - Journal of Aesthetics and Art Criticism 28 (3):355-360.
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  35. Probability as a Guide to Life. Co-Authored & Helen Beebee - 2003 - In David Papineau (ed.), The Roots of Reason: Philosophical Essays on Rationality, Evolution, and Probability. Oxford University Press.
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  36. Quantum Theory: A Hilbert Space Formalism for Probability Theory. [REVIEW]R. Eugene Collins - 1977 - Foundations of Physics 7 (7-8):475-494.
    It is shown that the Hilbert space formalism of quantum mechanics can be derived as a corrected form of probability theory. These constructions yield the Schrödinger equation for a particle in an electromagnetic field and exhibit a relationship of this equation to Markov processes. The operator formalism for expectation values is shown to be related to anL 2 representation of marginal distributions and a relationship of the commutation rules for canonically conjugate observables to a topological relationship of two manifolds is (...)
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  37. Hegel's Philosophical Psychology.Luca Corti - 2016
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  38. Decision-Theoretic Contraction and Sequential Change.Horacio Arlo Costa - 2006 - In Erik J. Olsson (ed.), Knowledge and Inquiry: Essays on the Pragmatism of Isaac Levi. Cambridge University Press.
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  39. Pragmatic Probability.Newton C. A. Costa - 1986 - Erkenntnis 25 (2):141-162.
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  40. Probability.D. R. Cousin - 1954 - Philosophical Quarterly 4 (14):82-84.
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  41. Sets of Probability Distributions, Independence, and Convexity.Fabio G. Cozman - 2012 - Synthese 186 (2):577-600.
    This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli’s discussion of “convex Bayesianism” (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of “strong independence” (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli’s results and recent developments (...)
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  42. All Probabilistic Methods Assume a Subjective Definition of Probability.Mark Crovelli - 2012 - Libertarian Papers 4.
    In previous publications on probability, I have followed I.J. Good in arguing that probability must be defined subjectively if we accept that the world is causally deterministic. In this article I go significantly beyond this position, arguing that we are forced to accept a subjective definition of probability if we use any probabilistic methods at all. In other words, all probabilistic methods tacitly assume a subjective definition of probability.
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  43. Can Probability Be Subjective and Objective at the Same Time? A Reply to Arnold Baise.Mark Crovelli - 2011 - Libertarian Papers 3.
    My claim that probability ought to be defined as a purely subjective measure of human belief has been challenged in a recent and interesting article on these pages by Arnold Baise . Baise argues that probability ought to be defined, not as a purely subjective measure of human belief, as I have claimed, but rather in the following way: Probability P is a number between 0 and 1 that indicates how plausible it is that proposition A is true, based on (...)
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  44. Review of 'Quitting Certainties'. [REVIEW]Simon D'Alfonso - 2014 - Philosophy in Review 34:34-36.
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  45. Pragmatic Probability.Newton C. A. da Costa - 1986 - Erkenntnis 25 (2):141 - 162.
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  46. Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science.Bernd I. Dahn - 1978 - Studia Logica 37 (2):213-219.
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  47. Probability Logic and \Scrf.A. I. Dale - 1976 - Philosophy of Science 43 (2):254-265.
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  48. Epistemic Probabilities.Francis W. Dauer - 1980 - Mind 89 (353):37-48.
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  49. The Logic of Probability.Bruno de Finetti - 1995 - Philosophical Studies 77 (1):181-190.
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  50. Serendipity: Fortune and the Prepared Mind.Mark de Rond & Iain Morley (eds.) - 2010 - Cambridge University Press.
    Machine generated contents note: Introduction. Fortune and the prepared mind Iain Morley and Mark de Rond; 1. The stratigraphy of serendipity Susan E. Alcock; 2. Understanding humans - serendipity and anthropology Richard Leakey; 3. HIV and the naked ape Robin Weiss; 4. Cosmological serendipity Simon Singh; 5. Serendipity in astronomy Andrew C. Fabian; 6. Serendipity in physics Richard Friend; 7. Liberalism and uncertainty Oliver Letwin; 8. The unanticipated pleasures of the writing life Simon Winchester.
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