Philosophy of Probability

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  1. Bayesian Confirmation or Ordinary Confirmation?Yongfeng Yuan - 2020 - Studia Logica 108 (3):425-449.
    This article reveals one general scheme for creating counter examples to Bayesian confirmation theory. The reason of the problems is that: in daily life the degree of confirmation is affected not only by probability but also by some non-probabilistic factors, e.g., structural similarity, quantity of evidence, and marginal utility, while Bayesian confirmation theory considers only probabilities to measure the degree of confirmation. This article resolves these problems after some detail analyses, and proposes a new confirmation measure based on these factors.
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  2. Introduction to the Neoclassical Interpretation: Quantum Steampunk.Shiva Meucci - forthcoming - Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy.
    In a previous paper we outlined a series of historical touchpoints between classical aether theories and modern theoretical physics which showed a shared conceptual lineage for the modern tools and methods of the most common interpretations and fluid based “Hydrodynamic” treatments of an electromagnetic medium. It was proposed that, though the weight of modern experimentation leaves an extremely narrow and convoluted window for even a reconceptualization of a medium, all of modern physics recognizes a plethora of behaviors and attributes for (...)
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    Chance and Objective Probability
     Chance and Determinism
     Chance and Objective Probability, Misc
     Frequentism
     Logical Probability
     Probabilistic Laws
     Propensities
     Chance-Credence Principles
     Humeanism and Nonhumeanism about Chance
    Subjective Probability
     Betting Interpretations and Dutch Books
     Conditional Probability
     Degrees of Belief
     Imprecise Credences
     Subjective Probability, Misc
    Probabilistic Reasoning
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    Mathematics of Probability
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    Phil of Statistics
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     Probability in the Philosophy of Religion
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  3. The Quantum Revolution in Philosophy. [REVIEW]Eddy Keming Chen - 2020 - Philosophical Review 129 (2):302-308.
    In this thought-provoking book, Richard Healey proposes a new interpretation of quantum theory inspired by pragmatist philosophy. Healey puts forward the interpretation as an alternative to realist quantum theories on the one hand such as Bohmian mechanics, spontaneous collapse theories, and many-worlds interpretations, which are different proposals for describing what the quantum world is like and what the basic laws of physics are, and non-realist interpretations on the other hand such as quantum Bayesianism, which proposes to understand quantum theory as (...)
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    Chance and Objective Probability
     Chance and Determinism
     Chance and Objective Probability, Misc
     Frequentism
     Logical Probability
     Probabilistic Laws
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     Humeanism and Nonhumeanism about Chance
    Subjective Probability
     Betting Interpretations and Dutch Books
     Conditional Probability
     Degrees of Belief
     Imprecise Credences
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    Probabilistic Reasoning
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    Phil of Statistics
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  4. Sure-Wins Under Coherence: A Geometrical Perspective.Stefano Bonzio, Tommaso Flaminio & Paolo Galeazzi - 2019 - In Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty. ECSQARU 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science.
    In this contribution we will present a generalization of de Finetti's betting game in which a gambler is allowed to buy and sell unknown events' betting odds from more than one bookmaker. In such a framework, the sole coherence of the books the gambler can play with is not sucient, as in the original de Finetti's frame, to bar the gambler from a sure-win opportunity. The notion of joint coherence which we will introduce in this paper characterizes those coherent books (...)
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    Chance and Objective Probability
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     Chance and Objective Probability, Misc
     Frequentism
     Logical Probability
     Probabilistic Laws
     Propensities
     Chance-Credence Principles
     Humeanism and Nonhumeanism about Chance
    Subjective Probability
     Betting Interpretations and Dutch Books
     Conditional Probability
     Degrees of Belief
     Imprecise Credences
     Subjective Probability, Misc
    Probabilistic Reasoning
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    Mathematics of Probability
     Axioms of Probability
     Infinitesimals and Probability
     Mathematics of Probability, Misc
    Phil of Statistics
    Applications of Probability
     Probability in the Philosophy of Religion
     Probability in the Physical Sciences
     Applications of Probability, Misc
     Decision Theory
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    Phil of Probability, Misc
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  5. The Big Four - Their Interdependence and Limitations.Matheus Silva - manuscript
    Four intuitions are recurrent and influential in theories about conditionals: the Ramsey’s test, the Adams’ Thesis, the Equation, and the robustness requirement. For simplicity’s sake, I call these intuitions ‘the big four’. My aim is to show that: (1) the big four are interdependent; (2) they express our inferential dispositions to employ a conditional on a modus ponens; (3) the disposition to employ conditionals on a modus ponens doesn’t have the epistemic significance that is usually attributed to it, since the (...)
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     Probabilistic Laws
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     Humeanism and Nonhumeanism about Chance
    Subjective Probability
     Betting Interpretations and Dutch Books
     Conditional Probability
     Degrees of Belief
     Imprecise Credences
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    Probabilistic Reasoning
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    Phil of Statistics
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     Topics in Decision Theory
    Phil of Probability, Misc
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  6. Why Be Random?Thomas Icard - forthcoming - Mind:fzz065.
    When does it make sense to act randomly? A persuasive argument from Bayesian decision theory legitimizes randomization essentially only in tie-breaking situations. Rational behaviour in humans, non-human animals, and artificial agents, however, often seems indeterminate, even random. Moreover, rationales for randomized acts have been offered in a number of disciplines, including game theory, experimental design, and machine learning. A common way of accommodating some of these observations is by appeal to a decision-maker’s bounded computational resources. Making this suggestion both precise (...)
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     Betting Interpretations and Dutch Books
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     Degrees of Belief
     Imprecise Credences
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  7. Scientific Metaphysics and Information.Bruce Long - forthcoming - Springer.
    This book investigates the interplay between two new and influential subdisciplines in the philosophy of science and philosophy: contemporary scientific metaphysics and the philosophy of information. Scientific metaphysics embodies various scientific realisms and has a partial intellectual heritage in some forms of neo-positivism, but is far more attuned than the latter to statistical science, theory defeasibility, scale variability, and pluralist ontological and explanatory commitments, and is averse to a-priori conceptual analysis. The philosophy of information is the combination of what has (...)
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     Imprecise Credences
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  8. Sarah Moss, Probabilistic Knowledge.Tim Smartt - 2018 - Ethics 129 (2):430-438.
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  9. A Study of Mathematical Determination Through Bertrand’s Paradox.Davide Rizza - 2018 - Philosophia Mathematica 26 (3):375-395.
    Certain mathematical problems prove very hard to solve because some of their intuitive features have not been assimilated or cannot be assimilated by the available mathematical resources. This state of affairs triggers an interesting dynamic whereby the introduction of novel conceptual resources converts the intuitive features into further mathematical determinations in light of which a solution to the original problem is made accessible. I illustrate this phenomenon through a study of Bertrand’s paradox.
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  10. Probability and Certainty.Jonny Blamey - 2008 - Praxis 1 (1).
    Probability can be used to measure degree of belief in two ways: objectively and subjectively. The objective measure is a measure of the rational degree of belief in a proposition given a set of evidential propositions. The subjective measure is the measure of a particular subject’s dispositions to decide between options. In both measures, certainty is a degree of belief 1. I will show, however, that there can be cases where one belief is stronger than another yet both beliefs are (...)
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  11. Ramsey and Joyce on Deliberation and Prediction.Yang Liu & Huw Price - 2020 - Synthese 197:4365-4386.
    Can an agent deliberating about an action A hold a meaningful credence that she will do A? 'No', say some authors, for 'Deliberation Crowds Out Prediction' (DCOP). Others disagree, but we argue here that such disagreements are often terminological. We explain why DCOP holds in a Ramseyian operationalist model of credence, but show that it is trivial to extend this model so that DCOP fails. We then discuss a model due to Joyce, and show that Joyce's rejection of DCOP rests (...)
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  12. Petroleum & Public Safety: Risk Management in the Gulf South 1901-2015 (LSU 2018).James B. Mcswain - 2018 - Baton Rouge, LA, USA: Louisiana State University Press.
    Throughout the twentieth century, cities such as Houston, Galveston, New Orleans, and Mobile grappled with the safety hazards created by oil and gas industries as well as the role municipal governments should play in protecting the public from these threats. James B. McSwain’s Petroleum and Public Safety reveals how officials in these cities created standards based on technical, scientific, and engineering knowledge to devise politically workable ordinances related to the storage and handling of fuel. -/- Each of the cities studied (...)
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  13. Logic of Probability and Conjecture.Harry Crane - unknown
    I introduce a formalization of probability which takes the concept of 'evidence' as primitive. In parallel to the intuitionistic conception of truth, in which 'proof' is primitive and an assertion A is judged to be true just in case there is a proof witnessing it, here 'evidence' is primitive and A is judged to be probable just in case there is evidence supporting it. I formalize this outlook by representing propositions as types in Martin-Lof type theory (MLTT) and defining a (...)
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  14. Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science.Bernd I. Dahn - 1978 - Studia Logica 37 (2):213-219.
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  15. The Design Inference: Eliminating Chance Through Small Probabilities.Jordan Howard Sobel - 2003 - Mind 112 (447):521-525.
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  16. Probability Theory and Probability Semantics.Peter Roeper & Hugues Leblanc (eds.) - 1999 - University of Toronto Press.
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  17. From Values to Probabilities.Wlodek Rabinowicz - 2017 - Synthese 194 (10):3901-3929.
    According to the fitting-attitude analysis of value, to be valuable is to be a fitting object of a pro-attitude. In earlier publications, setting off from this format of analysis, I proposed a modelling of value relations which makes room for incommensurability in value. In this paper, I first recapitulate the value modelling and then move on to suggest adopting a structurally similar analysis of probability. Indeed, many probability theorists from Poisson onwards did adopt an analysis of this kind. This move (...)
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  18. Hegel's Philosophical Psychology.Luca Corti - 2016
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  19. Relacja między nauką o logicznych możliwościach a zasadą zachowania energii. Rola badań Huygensa i Leibniza dla nowożytnej refleksji nad wolnością woli.Anna Szyrwińska - 2015 - IDEA – Studia Nad Strukturą I Rozwojem Pojęć Filozoficznych:191-202.
    The article investigates the relationship between Leibniz’s and Huygens’ theory of possibility and the principle of conservation of energy. It assumes that their criticisms of Cartesian views concerning those questions as well as their own achievements contributed to the formation of a new metaphysical basis for modern discussions on the freedom of the will. There are especially two problems whose role is crucial in this context, namely the question of God’s knowledge of future conditionals (contingentia futura) and the mind-body distinction.
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  20. Johannes von Kries's Conception of Probability, its Roots, Impact, and Modern Developments: Introduction.Jacob Rosenthal & Carsten Seck - 2016 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 47 (1):105-107.
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  21. On Quantum Conditional Probability.Isabel Guerra Bobo - 2013 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 28 (1):115-137.
    We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.Argumentamos que la teoría cuántica no admite una generalización de la noción clásica de probabilidad condicionada. Mostramos que la probabilidad definida por la regla de Lüders, interpretada generalmente como la regla de condicionalización mecánico-cuántica, no puede ser interpretada como (...)
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  22. A Study in Probability.D. Taylor - 1935 - Australasian Journal of Psychology and Philosophy 13 (4):290-298.
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  23. Probability Dynamics.Amos Nathan - 2006 - Synthese 148 (1):229-256.
    ‘Probability dynamics’ (PD) is a second-order probabilistic theory in which probability distribution d X = (P(X 1), . . . , P(X m )) on partition U m X of sample space Ω is weighted by ‘credence’ (c) ranging from −∞ to +∞. c is the relative degree of certainty of d X in ‘α-evidence’ α X =[c; d X ] on U m X . It is shown that higher-order probabilities cannot provide a theory of PD. PD applies to (...)
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  24. The No Probabilities For Acts-Principle.Marion Ledwig - 2005 - Synthese 144 (2):171-180.
    One can interpret the No Probabilities for Acts-Principle, namely that any adequate quantitative decision model must in no way contain subjective probabilities for actions in two ways: it can either refer to actions that are performable now and extend into the future or it can refer to actions that are not performable now, but will be in the future. In this paper, I will show that the former is the better interpretation of the principle.
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  25. Against Probabilistic Measures of Coherence.Mark Siebel - 2005 - Erkenntnis 63 (3):335-360.
    It is shown that the probabilistic theories of coherence proposed up to now produce a number of counter-intuitive results. The last section provides some reasons for believing that no probabilistic measure will ever be able to adequately capture coherence. First, there can be no function whose arguments are nothing but tuples of probabilities, and which assigns different values to pairs of propositions {A, B} and {A, C} if A implies both B and C, or their negations, and if P(B)=P(C). But (...)
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  26. The Place of Probability in Hilbert’s Axiomatization of Physics, Ca. 1900–1928.Lukas M. Verburgt - 2016 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 53:28-44.
    Although it has become a common place to refer to the ׳sixth problem׳ of Hilbert׳s (1900) Paris lecture as the starting point for modern axiomatized probability theory, his own views on probability have received comparatively little explicit attention. The central aim of this paper is to provide a detailed account of this topic in light of the central observation that the development of Hilbert׳s project of the axiomatization of physics went hand-in-hand with a redefinition of the status of probability theory (...)
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  27. Foundations of Probability with Applications: Selected Papers 1974–1995.Patrick Suppes & Mario Zanotti - 1996 - Cambridge University Press.
    This is an important collection of essays dealing with the foundations of probability that will be of value to philosophers of science, mathematicians, statisticians, psychologists and educationalists. The collection falls into three parts. Part I comprises five essays on the axiomatic foundations of probability. Part II contains seven articles on probabilistic causality and quantum mechanics, with an emphasis on the existence of hidden variables. The third part consists of a single extended essay applying probabilistic theories of learning to practical questions (...)
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  28. A New Way to Block a Dutch Book Argument, or The Stubborn Non-Probabilist.Leszek Wronski - manuscript
    We point out a yet unnoticed flaw in Dutch Book arguments that relates to a link between degrees of belief and betting quotients. We offer a set of precise conditions governing when a nonprobabilist is immune to the classical Dutch Book argument. We suggest that diachronic Dutch Book arguments are also affected.
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  29. A History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: From the Time of Pascal to That of Laplace.Isaac Todhunter - 1865 - Macmillan and Company: London.
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  30. Mellor. 2005 Probability: A Philosophical Introduction.Mauricio Suárez - 2011 - Theoria : An International Journal for Theory, History and Fundations of Science 26 (1):99-103.
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  31. Modern Chinese Court Buildings, Regime Legitimacy and the Public.Björn Ahl & Hendrik Tieben - 2015 - International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue Internationale de Sémiotique Juridique 28 (3):603-626.
    This study investigates the interrelation of outer appearance and spatial configuration of modern Chinese court buildings with the party-state’s strategy of building regime legitimacy. The spatial element of this relation is explored in four different court buildings in Kunming, Chongqing, Shanghai and Xi’an. It is argued that court buildings contribute to the empowerment of individuals who appear as parties in trials. Courthouses also facilitate the courts’ function of exercising social control and the application of an instrumentalist approach to the principle (...)
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  32. Probability and Evidence.A. J. Ayer & Graham MacDonald - 1972 - Cambridge University Press.
    A. J. Ayer was one of the foremost analytical philosophers of the twentieth century, and was known as a brilliant and engaging speaker. In essays based on his influential Dewey Lectures, Ayer addresses some of the most critical and controversial questions in epistemology and the philosophy of science, examining the nature of inductive reasoning and grappling with the issues that most concerned him as a philosopher. This edition contains revised and expanded versions of the lectures and two additional essays. Ayer (...)
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  33. Unificatory Power in the Old Quantum Theory: Informational Relevance of the Quantum Hypothesis.Molly Kao - forthcoming - Philosophy of Science.
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  34. WEATHERFORD, R.: "Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory". [REVIEW]Peter Milne - 1984 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35:95.
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  35. À propos du terme "probabilité".H. Breny - 1983 - Logique Et Analyse 26 (2):129.
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  36. "Wolgang Stegmüller", Personnelle Und Statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit. [REVIEW]Louis Valcke - 1974 - Dialogue 13 (3):597.
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  37. Deception in the Single-Blind Run-In Phase of Clinical Trials.Howard Mann - 2007 - IRB: Ethics & Human Research 29 (2).
    A single-blind run-in phase is often employed in randomized controlled trials. During these types of trials, all participants are given a placebo but are not informed of this fact. In many trials, participants who are judged to be “placebo responders” or who don’t follow instructions for taking the drug are excluded from further participation at the conclusion of this phase. Because participants are not informed of these procedures, this represents the use of deception in research.
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  38. The Notion of Probability in the Theistic Argument of F. R. Tennant.John Thomas Stahl - 1967 - Dissertation, Boston University Graduate School
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  39. HACKING, I. "The Emergence of Probability". [REVIEW]J. R. Lucas - 1977 - Mind 86:466.
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  40. REICHENBACH, H. -The Theory of Probability. [REVIEW]J. O. Urmson - 1951 - Mind 60:290.
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  41. Classical Fundamentals and a Modern Foundation of Probability Calculus.M. Malatesta - 1989 - Metalogicon 2:94-132.
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  42. The Pragmatic Justification of Induction: A Critical Examination.Lewis Graham Creary - 1969 - Dissertation, Princeton University
    The dissertation is a detailed critique of the main elements of Hans Reichenbach's pragmatic treatment of the problem of induction. In the introductory Chapter I we give a broad overview of Reichenbach's theory of probability and induction, indicating that he approaches the problem of justifying inductive inference in general by attempting first to reduce all kinds of non-deductive reasoning to combinations of inferences in accordance with the rules of deductive logic together with RRI -- the "rule of induction." Having thus (...)
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  43. Foundations of Huygens' Theory of Probability.Giuseppina Fenaroli - 1983 - Epistemologia 6 (2):297.
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  44. The Theory of Probability. An Inquiry Into the Logical and Mathematical Foundations of the Calculus of Probability.Ernest Nagel, Hans Reichenbach, Ernest H. Hutten & Maria Reichenbach - 1950 - Journal of Philosophy 47 (19):551-555.
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  45. Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Generalised. Part Two: The Premise-Based Approach.Franz Dietrich & Christian List - 2017 - Social Choice and Welfare 48 (4):787–814.
    How can different individuals' probability functions on a given sigma-algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem often require 'event-wise independence': the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals' probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be 'basic' and others 'derivative', so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize (...)
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  46. Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Generalized. Part One: General Agendas.Franz Dietrich & Christian List - 2017 - Social Choice and Welfare 48 (4):747–786.
    How can different individuals' probability assignments to some events be aggregated into a collective probability assignment? Classic results on this problem assume that the set of relevant events -- the agenda -- is a sigma-algebra and is thus closed under disjunction (union) and conjunction (intersection). We drop this demanding assumption and explore probabilistic opinion pooling on general agendas. One might be interested in the probability of rain and that of an interest-rate increase, but not in the probability of rain or (...)
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  47. Poincaré’s Probabilities, Kantified, Post-Modernized.Clark Glymour - 2014 - Biological Theory 9 (1):113-114.
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  48. How to Solve Probability Teasers-Discussion.M. Barhillel - 1989 - Philosophy of Science 56 (2):348-358.
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  49. Probability and Choice in the Selection Task.David W. Green, David E. Over & Robin A. Pyne - 1997 - Thinking and Reasoning 3 (3):209-235.
    Two experiments using a realistic version of the selection task examined the relationship between participants' probability estimates of finding a counter example and their selections. Experiment 1 used everyday categories in the context of a scenario to determine whether or not the number of instances in a category affected the estimated probability of a counter-example. Experiment 2 modified the scenario in order to alter participants' estimates of finding a specific counter-example. Unlike Kirby 1994a, but consistent with his proposals, both studies (...)
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  50. Empiricism, Probability, and Knowledge of Arithmetic.Sean Walsh - 2014 - Journal of Applied Logic 12 (3):319–348.
    The topic of this paper is our knowledge of the natural numbers, and in particular, our knowledge of the basic axioms for the natural numbers, namely the Peano axioms. The thesis defended in this paper is that knowledge of these axioms may be gained by recourse to judgements of probability. While considerations of probability have come to the forefront in recent epistemology, it seems safe to say that the thesis defended here is heterodox from the vantage point of traditional philosophy (...)
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