This category needs an editor. We encourage you to help if you are qualified.
Volunteer, or read more about what this involves.
Related categories

19 found
Order:
  1. added 2020-10-26
    Rebooting the New Evidence Scholarship.John R. Welch - 2020 - International Journal of Evidence and Proof 24 (4):351-373.
    The new evidence scholarship addresses three distinct approaches: legal probabilism, Bayesian decision theory and relative plausibility theory. Each has major insights to offer, but none seems satisfactory as it stands. This paper proposes that relative plausibility theory be modified in two substantial ways. The first is by defining its key concept of plausibility, hitherto treated as primitive, by generalising the standard axioms of probability. The second is by complementing the descriptive component of the theory with a normative decision theory adapted (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  2. added 2019-12-19
    When Econs Are Human.John R. Welch - 2020 - Journal of Economic Methodology 27 (3):212-225.
    Econs are presumed to be unboundedly rational, while Humans are boundedly rational. Nevertheless, in certain conditions, Econs aiming to optimize would choose like Humans trying to satisfice. The conditions are imposed by Knightian uncertainty. Although expected utilities are incalculable in these conditions, an Econ could still optimize by relying on a comparative version of decision theory that takes inputs of comparative plausibility and desirability and produces outputs of plausibilistic expectation. The paper shows that comparative decision theory is a special case (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  3. added 2018-03-30
    Coping with Ethical Uncertainty.John R. Welch - 2017 - Diametros 53:150-166.
    Most ethical decisions are conditioned by formidable uncertainty. Decision makers may lack reliable information about relevant facts, the consequences of actions, and the reactions of other people. Resources for dealing with uncertainty are available from standard forms of decision theory, but successful application to decisions under risk requires a great deal of quantitative information: point-valued probabilities of states and point-valued utilities of outcomes. When this information is not available, this paper recommends the use of a form of decision theory that (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  4. added 2018-03-22
    On the Martingale Representation Theorem and on Approximate Hedging a Contingent Claim in the Minimum Deviation Square Criterion.Nguyen Van Huu & Quan-Hoang Vuong - 2007 - In Ta-Tsien Li Rolf Jeltsch (ed.), Some Topics in Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Shanghai, China: World Scientific. pp. 134-151.
    In this work we consider the problem of the approximate hedging of a contingent claim in the minimum mean square deviation criterion. A theorem on martingale representation in case of discrete time and an application of the result for semi-continuous market model are also given.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  5. added 2016-02-27
    Three Floors for the Theory of Theory Change.Hans Rott - 2014 - In Vít Punčochář & Michal Dančák (eds.), The Logica Yearbook 2013. London: College Publications. pp. 187–205.
    The theory of theory change due to Alchourrón, Gärdenfors and Makinson ("AGM") has been widely known as being characterized by two sets of postulates, one being very weak and the other being very strong. Commenting on the three classic constructions of partial meet contraction, safe contraction and entrenchment-based construction, I argue that three intermediate levels can be distinguished that play decisive roles within the AGM theory.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  6. added 2016-02-27
    Four Floors for the Theory of Theory Change: The Case of Imperfect Discrimination.Hans Rott - 2014 - In Eduardo Fermé & João Leite (eds.), Logics in Artificial Intelligence: 13th European Conference (JELIA 2014). Cham: Springer. pp. 368–382.
    The classical qualitative theory of belief change due to Alchourrón, Gärdenfors and Makinson has been widely known as being characterised by two packages of postulates. While the basic package consists of six postulates and is very weak, the full package that adds two further postulates is very strong. I revisit two classic constructions of theory contraction, viz., relational possible worlds contraction and entrenchment-based contraction and argue that four intermediate levels can be distinguished that play - or ought to play - (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  7. added 2016-02-27
    Two Concepts of Plausibility in Default Reasoning.Hans Rott - 2014 - Erkenntnis 79 (S6):1219–1252.
    In their unifying theory to model uncertainty, Friedman and Halpern (1995–2003) applied plausibility measures to default reasoning satisfying certain sets of axioms. They proposed a distinctive condition for plausibility measures that characterizes “qualitative” reasoning (as contrasted with probabilistic reasoning). A similar and similarly fundamental, but more general and thus stronger condition was independently suggested in the context of “basic” entrenchment-based belief revision by Rott (1996–2003). The present paper analyzes the relation between the two approaches to formalizing basic notions of plausibility (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  8. added 2015-09-09
    A Quantitative Approach to Measuring Assurance with Uncertainty in Data Provenance.Stephen Bush, Moitra F., Crapo Abha, Barnett Andrew, Dill Bruce & J. Stephen - manuscript
    A data provenance framework is subject to security threats and risks, which increase the uncertainty, or lack of trust, in provenance information. Information assurance is challenged by incomplete information; one cannot exhaustively characterize all threats or all vulnerabilities. One technique that specifically incorporates a probabilistic notion of uncertainty is subjective logic. Subjective logic allows belief and uncertainty, due to incomplete information, to be specified and operated upon in a coherent manner. A mapping from the standard definition of information assurance to (...)
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  9. added 2014-06-09
    Moral Strata: Another Approach to Reflective Equilibrium.John R. Welch - 2014 - Springer.
    This volume recreates the received notion of reflective equilibrium. It reconfigures reflective equilibrium as both a cognitive ideal and a method for approximating this ideal. The ideal of reflective equilibrium is restructured using the concept of discursive strata, which are formed by sentences and differentiated by function. Sentences that perform the same kind of linguistic function constitute a stratum. The book shows how moral discourse can be analyzed into phenomenal, instrumental, and teleological strata, and the ideal of reflective equilibrium reworked (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  10. added 2014-03-04
    Decision Theory and Cognitive Choice.John R. Welch - 2011 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 1 (2):147-172.
    The focus of this study is cognitive choice: the selection of one cognitive option (a hypothesis, a theory, or an axiom, for instance) rather than another. The study proposes that cognitive choice should be based on the plausibilities of states posited by rival cognitive options and the utilities of these options' information outcomes. The proposal introduces a form of decision theory that is novel because comparative; it permits many choices among cognitive options to be based on merely comparative plausibilities and (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  11. added 2013-04-20
    New Tools for Theory Choice and Theory Diagosis.John R. Welch - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (3):318-329.
    Theory choice can be approached in at least four ways. One of these calls for the application of decision theory, and this article endorses this approach. But applying standard forms of decision theory imposes an overly demanding standard of numeric information, supposedly satisfied by point-valued utility and probability functions. To ameliorate this difficulty, a version of decision theory that requires merely comparative utilities and plausibilities is proposed. After a brief summary of this alternative, the article illustrates how comparative decision theory (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  12. added 2012-02-22
    Formal Representations of Belief.Franz Huber - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
    Epistemology is the study of knowledge and justified belief. Belief is thus central to epistemology. It comes in a qualitative form, as when Sophia believes that Vienna is the capital of Austria, and a quantitative form, as when Sophia's degree of belief that Vienna is the capital of Austria is at least twice her degree of belief that tomorrow it will be sunny in Vienna. Formal epistemology, as opposed to mainstream epistemology (Hendricks 2006), is epistemology done in a formal way, (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  13. added 2011-04-26
    Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory.John R. Welch - 2012 - In Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin & Martin Peterson (eds.), Handbook of Risk Theory. Springer.
    Some decisions result in cognitive consequences such as information gained and information lost. The focus of this study, however, is decisions with consequences that are partly or completely noncognitive. These decisions are typically referred to as ‘real-life decisions’. According to a common complaint, the challenges of real-life decision making cannot be met by decision theory. This complaint has at least two principal motives. One is the maximizing objection that to require agents to determine the optimal act under real-world constraints is (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  14. added 2009-06-27
    Reasoning About Uncertainty.Joseph Y. Halpern - 2003 - MIT Press.
  15. added 2009-06-27
    Possibility Theory, Probability Theory, and Muliple-Valued Logics: A Clarification.Henri Prade & D. Dubois - 2001 - Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 32:35--66.
    Remove from this list  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   14 citations  
  16. added 2009-06-27
    First-Order Conditional Logic for Default Reasoning Revisited.Nir Friedman, Joseph Halpern, Koller Y. & Daphne - 2000 - Acm Trans. Comput. Logic 1 (2):175--207.
    Remove from this list  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  17. added 2009-06-27
    Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Applications.Didier DuBois - 1997 - Academic Press.
    / Part INTRODUCTION Fuzziness is not a priori an obvious concept and demands some explanation. "Fuzziness" is what Black (NF) calls "vagueness" when ...
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  18. added 2009-06-27
    Rough Sets.Zdzislaw Pawlak, Jerzy Grzymala-Busse, Roman Slowinski & Wojciech Ziarko - 1995 - Commun. Acm 38 (11):88--95.
    Remove from this list  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   29 citations  
  19. added 2009-06-27
    Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems.Judea Pearl - 1988 - Morgan Kaufmann.
    The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   233 citations