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  1. added 2020-02-07
    Introducing Knowledge-Based Medicine - Conference Presentation - Medicine is Not Science: Guessing the Future, Predicting the Past.Clifford Miller - 2014 - Conference Presentation Universidad Franscisco de Vitoria Person Centered Medicine July 2014; 07/2014.
    There is a middle ground of imperfect knowledge in fields like medicine and the social sciences. It stands between our day-to-day relatively certain knowledge obtained from ordinary basic observation of regularities in our world and our knowledge from well-validated theories in the physical sciences. -/- The latter enable reliable prediction a great deal of the time of the happening of events never before experienced. The former enable prediction only of what has happened before and beyond that of educated guesses which (...)
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  2. added 2019-12-10
    When Does HARKing Hurt? Identifying When Different Types of Undisclosed Post Hoc Hypothesizing Harm Scientific Progress.Mark Rubin - 2017 - Review of General Psychology 21:308-320.
    Hypothesizing after the results are known, or HARKing, occurs when researchers check their research results and then add or remove hypotheses on the basis of those results without acknowledging this process in their research report (Kerr, 1998). In the present article, I discuss three forms of HARKing: (1) using current results to construct post hoc hypotheses that are then reported as if they were a priori hypotheses; (2) retrieving hypotheses from a post hoc literature search and reporting them as a (...)
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  3. added 2019-12-04
    Evidence and Explanation in Cicero's On Divination.Frank Cabrera - forthcoming - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A.
    In this paper, I examine Cicero’s oft-neglected De Divinatione, a dialogue investigating the legitimacy of the practice of divination. First, I offer a novel analysis of the main arguments for divination given by Quintus, highlighting the fact that he employs two logically distinct argument forms. Next, I turn to the first of the main arguments against divination given by Marcus. Here I show, with the help of modern probabilistic tools, that Marcus’ skeptical response is far from the decisive, proto-naturalistic assault (...)
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  4. added 2019-11-12
    To Explain or to Predict: Which One is Mandatory?Robert Luk - 2018 - Foundations of Science 23 (2):411-414.
    Recently, Luk mentioned that scientific knowledge both explains and predicts. Do these two functions of scientific knowledge have equal significance, or is one of the two functions more important than the other? This commentary explains why prediction may be mandatory but explanation may be only desirable and optional.
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  5. added 2019-09-14
    Big Data and Prediction: Four Case Studies.Robert Northcott - forthcoming - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A.
    Has the rise of data-intensive science, or ‘big data’, revolutionized our ability to predict? Does it imply a new priority for prediction over causal understanding, and a diminished role for theory and human experts? I examine four important cases where prediction is desirable: political elections, the weather, GDP, and the results of interventions suggested by economic experiments. These cases suggest caution. Although big data methods are indeed very useful sometimes, in this paper’s cases they improve predictions either limitedly or not (...)
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  6. added 2019-05-07
    What Do Implicit Measures Measure?Michael Brownstein, Alex Madva & Bertram Gawronski - 2019 - WIREs Cognitive Science:1-13.
    We identify several ongoing debates related to implicit measures, surveying prominent views and considerations in each debate. First, we summarize the debate regarding whether performance on implicit measures is explained by conscious or unconscious representations. Second, we discuss the cognitive structure of the operative constructs: are they associatively or propositionally structured? Third, we review debates whether performance on implicit measures reflects traits or states. Fourth, we discuss the question of whether a person’s performance on an implicit measure reflects characteristics of (...)
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  7. added 2019-01-09
    Twierdzenie Bayesa w projektowaniu strategii diagnostycznych w medycynie.Tomasz Rzepiński - 2018 - Diametros 57:39-60.
    The paper will compare two methods used in the design of diagnostic strategies. The first one is a method that precises predictive value of diagnostic tests. The second one is based on the use of Bayes’ theorem. The main aim of this article is to identify the epistemological assumptions underlying both of these methods. For the purpose of this objective, example projects of one and multi-stage diagnostic strategy developed using both methods will be considered.
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  8. added 2019-01-07
    Logical Conditions for Truth in Scientific Prediction.A. G. Nikitina - 1971 - Russian Studies in Philosophy 10 (2):176-186.
    In recent years the problem of scientific prediction has attracted a constantly increasing number of researchers. The fact that a number of philosophers, logicians, and representatives of concrete disciplines have turned to investigating the nature of scientific prediction is first of all because of the needs of the development of scientific knowledge itself, as well as of industry. The rapid progress of the natural and the social sciences puts in the foreground the task of studying the internal regularities of the (...)
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  9. added 2018-12-21
    Rational Prediction.Wesley C. Salmon - 1981 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 32 (2):115-125.
  10. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction, Explanation, and Freedom.David L. Perry - 1965 - The Monist 49 (2):234-247.
    The aim of this article is to provide a way of resolving the apparent dilemma between our requirement as agents that actions should be free and our demand as spectators that all events should be predictable and explicable on the basis of antecedent conditions. I hope to show that what has often been incorrectly regarded as a logical incompatibility between freedom and determinism is, in fact, a disparity but not an over-all contradiction between the viewpoint of an agent and that (...)
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  11. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction and Scientific Law.John Arthur Passmore - 1946 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 24 (1-2):1 – 33.
  12. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction and Scientific Law.J. A. Passmore - 1946 - Australasian Journal of Psychology and Philosophy 24 (1-2):1-33.
  13. added 2018-09-06
    What to Make of Mendeleev’s Predictions?K. Wray - 2019 - Foundations of Chemistry 21 (2):139-143.
    I critically examine Stewart’s suggestion that we should weigh the various predictions Mendeleev made differently. I argue that in his effort to justify discounting the weight of some of Mendeleev’s failures, Stewart invokes a principle that will, in turn, reduce the weight of some of the successful predictions Mendeleev made. So Stewart’s strategy will not necessarily lead to a net gain in Mendeleev’s favor.
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  14. added 2018-08-26
    Review of Eric Barnes' The Paradox of Predictivism. [REVIEW]David W. Harker - 2011 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (1):219-223.
  15. added 2018-08-26
    Eric Christian Barnes * the Paradox of Predictivism.D. Harker - 2011 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (1):219-223.
  16. added 2018-08-26
    Reichenbach's Concept of Prediction.Wenceslao J. Gonz - 1995 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 9 (1):37 – 58.
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  17. added 2018-08-26
    Accuracy of Prediction: A Note on David Miller's Problem.Deryck Horton - 1978 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 29 (2):179-183.
  18. added 2018-08-26
    Whewell’s Cosilience of Inductions and Predictions: Appendix: Discussion and Comment.Mary Hesse - 1971 - The Monist 55 (3):520-524.
    In his paper “William Whewell on the Consilience of Inductions” Professor Laudan has suggested that Whewell’s use of “consilience of inductions” is not the same as mine in my paper of that title. Suppose we have a theory T which entails three empirical laws L1, L2, L3. L1 is supposed already confirmed by direct evidence of its instances, but we have as yet no direct evidence for L2 or for L3. Then Laudan distinguishes two problems: Whewell’s problem: T is suggested (...)
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  19. added 2018-06-16
    Prediction in General Relativity.C. McCoy - 2017 - Synthese 194 (2):491-509.
    Several authors have claimed that prediction is essentially impossible in the general theory of relativity, the case being particularly strong, it is said, when one fully considers the epistemic predicament of the observer. Each of these claims rests on the support of an underdetermination argument and a particular interpretation of the concept of prediction. I argue that these underdetermination arguments fail and depend on an implausible explication of prediction in the theory. The technical results adduced in these arguments can be (...)
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  20. added 2018-02-19
    Review: Cornelis Menke: Zum Methodologischen Wert von Vorhersagen . Paderborn: Mentis, 2009, 188 Pages. [REVIEW]Christian J. Feldbacher - 2013 - Kriterion - Journal of Philosophy 27 (1):53-64.
  21. added 2018-02-16
    The Role of Hypotheses in Biomechanical Research.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom & R. Mcneill Alexander - 2012 - Science in Context 25 (2):247-262.
    This paper investigates whether there is a discrepancy between stated and actual aims in biomechanical research, particularly with respect to hypothesis testing. We present an analysis of one hundred papers recently published in The Journal of Experimental Biology and Journal of Biomechanics, and examine the prevalence of papers which have hypothesis testing as a stated aim, contain hypothesis testing claims that appear to be purely presentational, and have exploration as a stated aim. We found that whereas no papers had exploration (...)
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  22. added 2017-10-13
    Scientific Method.James Kern Feibleman - 1972 - The Hague: M. Nijhoff.
  23. added 2017-10-09
    Cosmic Censorship.John Earman - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:171 - 180.
    The cosmic censorship hypothesis states that the general theory of relativity has built in mechanisms to prevent the formation of "naked singularities," pathologies in the spacetime structure that lead to a breakdown in predictability and determinism. This paper discusses some attempts to turn the vague hypothesis into a precise conjecture. Evidence in favor of and against the conjecture is briefly reviewed. Finally the possibility of forming naked singularities via black hole evaporation due to Hawking radiation is discussed.
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  24. added 2017-10-07
    Deterministisches Chaos: Einige Wissenschaftstheoretisch Interessante Aspekte. [REVIEW]Klaus Jürgen Düsberg - 1995 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 26 (1):11 - 24.
    Deterministic Chaos: Some Interesting Points of View from the Philosophy of Science. A comparatively simple example is used to present some of the main features of deterministic chaos. From the point of view of the philosophy of science, three questions are dealt with: if the equations of motion of chaotic systems are falsifiable in a strict sense; whether experiments on chaotic systems are reproducible; to what extent the development of chaotic systems is predictable. It emerges that in these respects chaotic (...)
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  25. added 2017-10-04
    Determinism in Classical Physics.G. F. Dear - 1960 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 11 (44):289-304.
  26. added 2017-09-21
    Foundations of the Theory of Prediction. [REVIEW]P. K. H. - 1967 - Review of Metaphysics 21 (1):164-164.
    This is a book about statistical theory without sample theory. A very substantial portion of the modern theory of statistics can be treated without involving oneself in problems of analysis consequent upon the treatment of sampling. Accordingly, Rozeboom has written a book which, while sophisticated, does not demand any high-powered mathematical knowledge or competence. A good deal of the theories of distribution, statistical regression, factor analysis, variance structure, reliability, and miscellaneous applications of probability theory is covered. The author concentrates upon (...)
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  27. added 2017-07-04
    Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation in the Social Sciences: Realm and Limits" (University of Amsterdam, 26-27 October 2009): Workshop of the Program "The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective. [REVIEW]Wenceslao J. Gonzalez - 2010 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 41 (2):389 - 394.
  28. added 2017-07-04
    Reichenbach's Concept of Prediction.Wenceslao J. González - 1995 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 9 (1):37-58.
    Abstract Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is?for him?the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with (...)
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  29. added 2017-07-04
    Economic Prediction and Human Activity. An Analysis of Prediction in Economics From Action Theory.W. Gonzalez - 1994 - Epistemologia 17 (2):253-294.
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  30. added 2017-07-04
    Explanation and Prediction in the Labour Process Theory.Richard Douglas Gordon - 1990 - Dissertation, The University of British Columbia (Canada)
    The view that large-scale, long-range social theories cannot be predictive other than "in principle" is sufficiently widespread as to be considered the orthodox view. It is widely held that, lacking this predictive quality, social theories are cut off from a crucial form of vindication enjoyed by the experimental sciences. Thus many would agree with Ryan's assessment that while with regard to large-scale social changes "long-range prediction is not in principle impossible," nonetheless as a matter of practical methodology such a goal (...)
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  31. added 2017-06-07
    Prediction and Accommodation Revisited.John Worrall - unknown
    The paper presents a further articulation and defence of the view on prediction and accommodation that I have proposed earlier. It operates by analysing two accounts of the issue-by Patrick Maher and by Marc Lange-that, at least at first sight, appear to be rivals to my own. Maher claims that the time-order of theory and evidence may be important in terms of degree of confirmation, while that claim is explicitly denied in my account. I argue, however, that when his account (...)
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  32. added 2017-05-11
    Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers Are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?Spencer Phillips Hey & Jonathan Kimmelman - 2016 - Bioethics 30 (8):609-617.
    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach – forecast analysis – that would enable direct and (...)
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  33. added 2016-12-12
    Underdetermination, Model-Ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-Analysis in Climatology.Gregor Betz - 2009 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 40 (1):3-21.
    As climate policy decisions are decisions under uncertainty, being based on a range of future climate change scenarios, it becomes a crucial question how to set up this scenario range. Failing to comply with the precautionary principle, the scenario methodology widely used in the Third Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seems to violate international environmental law, in particular a provision of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To place climate policy advice on a (...)
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  34. added 2016-12-05
    Scientific Innovation and the Limits of Social Scientific Prediction.Alex Rosenberg - 1993 - Synthese 97 (2):161 - 181.
    Philosophers and historians of philosophy have come to recognize that at the core of logical positivism was an attachment to prediction as the necessary condition for scientific knowledge.1 The inheritors of their tradition, especially the Bayesians among us, continue to seek a theory of confirmation that reflects this epistemic commitment. The importance of prediction in the growth of scientific knowledge is a commitment I share with the positivists, so I do not blanch at that designation, much less employ it as (...)
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  35. added 2016-11-28
    Experience and Prediction.Hans Reichenbach - 1938 - University of Chicago Press.
  36. added 2016-11-14
    Howson and Franklin on Prediction.Patrick Maher - 1993 - Philosophy of Science 60 (2):329-340.
    Evidence for a hypothesis typically confirms the hypothesis more if the evidence was predicted than if it was accommodated. Or so I argued in previous papers, where I also developed an analysis of why this should be so. But this was all a mistake if Howson and Franklin (1991) are to be believed. In this paper, I show why they are not to be believed. I also identify a grain of truth that may have been dimly grasped by those Bayesians (...)
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  37. added 2016-11-14
    Numerical Weather Prediction.Sir John Mason - 1986 - In B. J. Mason, Peter Mathias & J. H. Westcott (eds.), Predictability in Science and Society: A Joint Symposium of the Royal Society and the British Academy Held on 20 and 21 March 1986. Scholium International.
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  38. added 2016-11-04
    Zur Verteidigung Einiger Hempelscher Thesen Gegen Kritiken Stegmüllers.Michael Küttner - 1985 - Erkenntnis 22 (1-3):475 - 484.
    The aim of this paper is to defend some of C. G. Hempel's basic theses concerning the logic of explanation and prediction against criticisms recently made by W. Stegmüller. It is argued (very concisely) thatthese is no need for essentially pragmatic conditions in DN-arguments;only the structural identity sub-thesis “Every adequate prediction is ... an adequate explanation” can be held instead of the one Hempel has in mind;the notion of the ambiguity of probabilistic explanations should be reformulated;there is no need for (...)
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  39. added 2016-10-02
    Beyond Belief Randomness, Prediction and Explanation in Science.J. L. Casti, Anders Karlqvist & Sweden - 1991
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  40. added 2016-09-30
    An Introduction to Experimentation.Brian Joseph Brinkworth - 1968 - New York: American Elsevier Pub. Co..
  41. added 2016-05-19
    The Risk GP Model: The Standard Model of Prediction in Medicine.Jonathan Fuller & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:49-61.
    With the ascent of modern epidemiology in the Twentieth Century came a new standard model of prediction in public health and clinical medicine. In this article, we describe the structure of the model. The standard model uses epidemiological measures-most commonly, risk measures-to predict outcomes (prognosis) and effect sizes (treatment) in a patient population that can then be transformed into probabilities for individual patients. In the first step, a risk measure in a study population is generalized or extrapolated to a target (...)
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  42. added 2016-05-19
    Prediction in Epidemiology and Medicine.Jonathan Fuller, Alex Broadbent & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:45-48.
  43. added 2016-05-19
    Therapeutic Inferences for Individual Patients.Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 21 (3):440-447.
    RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Increased awareness of the gap between controlled research and medical practice has raised concerns over whether the special attention of doctors to probability estimates from clinical trials really improves the care of individuals. Evidence-based medicine has acknowledged that research results are not applicable to all kinds of patients, and consequently, has attempted to overcome this limitation by introducing improvements in the design and analysis of clinical trials. METHODS: A clinical case is used to highlight the premises (...)
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  44. added 2016-04-03
    The Curious Case of the Self-Refuting Straw Man: Trafimow and Earp’s Response to Klein (2014).Stan Klein - 2016 - Theory and Psychology 26:549– 556.
    In their critique of Klein (2014a), Trafimow and Earp present two theses. First, they argue that, contra Klein, a well-specified theory is not a necessary condition for successful replication. Second, they contend that even when there is a well-specified theory, replication depends more on auxiliary assumptions than on theory proper. I take issue with both claims, arguing that (a) their first thesis confuses a material conditional (what I said) with a modal claim (T&E’s misreading of what I said), and (b) (...)
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  45. added 2015-09-16
    Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction.Gregor Betz - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):191-215.
    Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch as climate models rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider their implications as possible if their assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way to address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world, and discusses whether climate models can be interpreted as imperfect credible worlds. That would allow one to (...)
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  46. added 2015-09-16
    Mehr Besonnenheit, bitte! Über Prognosegrenzen und Politikberatung.Gregor Betz - 2011 - Ökologisches Wirtschaften 2011 (2):35-38.
    In einer Welt, in der der Umgang mit Komplexität und Unsicherheit an Bedeutung gewinnt, sind politische Entscheidungsträger immer stärker auf eine wissenschaftliche Beratung angewiesen. Trotz des Bedarfs der politischen Akteure nach konkreten Handlungsempfehlungen sollte seriöse Politikberatung die grundlegenden Werte wissenschaftlichen Arbeitens nicht aus den Augen verlieren.
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  47. added 2015-09-04
    Space-Time Dimension Problem as a Stumbling Block of Inflationary Cosmology.Rinat M. Nugayev - 2013 - In Vadim V. Kazutinsky, Elena A. Mamchur, Alexandre D. Panov & V. D. Erekaev (eds.), Metauniverse,Space,Time. Institute of Philosophy of RAS. pp. 52-73.
    It is taken for granted that the explanation of the Universe’s space-time dimension belongs to the host of the arguments that exhibit the superiority of modern (inflationary) cosmology over the standard model. In the present paper some doubts are expressed . They are based upon the fact superstring theory is too formal to represent genuine unification of general relativity and quantum field theory. Neveretheless, the fact cannot exclude the opportunity that in future the superstring theory can become more physical. Hence (...)
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  48. added 2015-09-02
    A More Fulfilling (and Frustrating) Take on Reflexive Predictions.Matthew Kopec - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (5):1249-1259.
    Even though social scientists continue to discuss the problems posed by self-fulfilling and self-frustrating predictions, philosophers of science have ignored the topic since the 1970s. Back then, the prevailing view was that the methodological problems posed by reflexive predictions are either minor or easily avoided. I believe that this consensus was premature, ultimately relying on an overly narrow understanding of the phenomenon. I present an improved way to understand reflexive predictions (framed in probabilistic terms) and show that, once such predictions (...)
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  49. added 2015-04-04
    On Embodiment in Predictions. A Book Review. [REVIEW]Przemysław Nowakowski - 2015 - Avant: Trends in Interdisciplinary Studies (3):155-159.
  50. added 2015-04-04
    Reflections on Predictive Processing and the Mind. An Interview.Jakob Hohwy - 2014 - Avant: Trends in Interdisciplinary Studies (3):145-152.
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