This category needs an editor. We encourage you to help if you are qualified.
Volunteer, or read more about what this involves.
Related categories

68 found
Order:
1 — 50 / 68
  1. added 2019-01-09
    Twierdzenie Bayesa w projektowaniu strategii diagnostycznych w medycynie.Tomasz Rzepiński - 2018 - Diametros 57:39-60.
    The paper will compare two methods used in the design of diagnostic strategies. The first one is a method that precises predictive value of diagnostic tests. The second one is based on the use of Bayes’ theorem. The main aim of this article is to identify the epistemological assumptions underlying both of these methods. For the purpose of this objective, example projects of one and multi-stage diagnostic strategy developed using both methods will be considered.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  2. added 2019-01-07
    Logical Conditions for Truth in Scientific Prediction.A. G. Nikitina - 1971 - Russian Studies in Philosophy 10 (2):176-186.
    In recent years the problem of scientific prediction has attracted a constantly increasing number of researchers. The fact that a number of philosophers, logicians, and representatives of concrete disciplines have turned to investigating the nature of scientific prediction is first of all because of the needs of the development of scientific knowledge itself, as well as of industry. The rapid progress of the natural and the social sciences puts in the foreground the task of studying the internal regularities of the (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  3. added 2018-12-21
    Rational Prediction.Wesley C. Salmon - 1981 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 32 (2):115-125.
  4. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction, Explanation, and Freedom.David L. Perry - 1965 - The Monist 49 (2):234-247.
  5. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction and Scientific Law.John Arthur Passmore - 1946 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 24 (1-2):1 – 33.
  6. added 2018-12-21
    Prediction and Scientific Law.J. A. Passmore - 1946 - Australasian Journal of Psychology and Philosophy 24 (1-2):1-33.
  7. added 2018-09-06
    What to Make of Mendeleev’s Predictions?K. Brad Wray - forthcoming - Foundations of Chemistry:1-5.
    I critically examine Stewart’s suggestion that we should weigh the various predictions Mendeleev made differently. I argue that in his effort to justify discounting the weight of some of Mendeleev’s failures, Stewart invokes a principle that will, in turn, reduce the weight of some of the successful predictions Mendeleev made. So Stewart’s strategy will not necessarily lead to a net gain in Mendeleev’s favor.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  8. added 2018-08-26
    Review of Eric Barnes' The Paradox of Predictivism. [REVIEW]David W. Harker - 2011 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (1).
  9. added 2018-08-26
    Eric Christian Barnes * the Paradox of Predictivism.D. Harker - 2011 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (1):219-223.
  10. added 2018-08-26
    Reichenbach's Concept of Prediction.Wenceslao J. Gonz - 1995 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 9 (1):37 – 58.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  11. added 2018-08-26
    Accuracy of Prediction: A Note on David Miller's Problem.Deryck Horton - 1978 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 29 (2):179-183.
  12. added 2018-08-26
    Whewell’s Cosilience of Inductions and Predictions: Appendix: Discussion and Comment.Mary Hesse - 1971 - The Monist 55 (3):520-524.
  13. added 2018-06-16
    Prediction in General Relativity.C. McCoy - 2017 - Synthese 194 (2):491-509.
    Several authors have claimed that prediction is essentially impossible in the general theory of relativity, the case being particularly strong, it is said, when one fully considers the epistemic predicament of the observer. Each of these claims rests on the support of an underdetermination argument and a particular interpretation of the concept of prediction. I argue that these underdetermination arguments fail and depend on an implausible explication of prediction in the theory. The technical results adduced in these arguments can be (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (8 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  14. added 2018-02-19
    Review: Cornelis Menke: Zum Methodologischen Wert von Vorhersagen . Paderborn: Mentis, 2009, 188 Pages. [REVIEW]Christian J. Feldbacher - 2013 - Kriterion - Journal of Philosophy 27 (1):53-64.
  15. added 2018-02-16
    The Role of Hypotheses in Biomechanical Research.Darrell Patrick Rowbottom & R. Mcneill Alexander - 2012 - Science in Context 25 (2):247-262.
    This paper investigates whether there is a discrepancy between stated and actual aims in biomechanical research, particularly with respect to hypothesis testing. We present an analysis of one hundred papers recently published in The Journal of Experimental Biology and Journal of Biomechanics, and examine the prevalence of papers which have hypothesis testing as a stated aim, contain hypothesis testing claims that appear to be purely presentational, and have exploration as a stated aim. We found that whereas no papers had exploration (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  16. added 2017-10-13
    Scientific Method.James Kern Feibleman - 1972 - The Hague: M. Nijhoff.
  17. added 2017-10-09
    Cosmic Censorship.John Earman - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:171 - 180.
    The cosmic censorship hypothesis states that the general theory of relativity has built in mechanisms to prevent the formation of "naked singularities," pathologies in the spacetime structure that lead to a breakdown in predictability and determinism. This paper discusses some attempts to turn the vague hypothesis into a precise conjecture. Evidence in favor of and against the conjecture is briefly reviewed. Finally the possibility of forming naked singularities via black hole evaporation due to Hawking radiation is discussed.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  18. added 2017-10-07
    Deterministisches Chaos: Einige Wissenschaftstheoretisch Interessante Aspekte. [REVIEW]Klaus Jürgen Düsberg - 1995 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 26 (1):11 - 24.
    Deterministic Chaos: Some Interesting Points of View from the Philosophy of Science. A comparatively simple example is used to present some of the main features of deterministic chaos. From the point of view of the philosophy of science, three questions are dealt with: if the equations of motion of chaotic systems are falsifiable in a strict sense; whether experiments on chaotic systems are reproducible; to what extent the development of chaotic systems is predictable. It emerges that in these respects chaotic (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  19. added 2017-10-04
    Determinism in Classical Physics.G. F. Dear - 1960 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 11 (44):289-304.
  20. added 2017-09-21
    Foundations of the Theory of Prediction. [REVIEW]P. K. H. - 1967 - Review of Metaphysics 21 (1):164-164.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  21. added 2017-07-04
    Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation in the Social Sciences: Realm and Limits" (University of Amsterdam, 26-27 October 2009): Workshop of the Program "The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective. [REVIEW]Wenceslao J. Gonzalez - 2010 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 41 (2):389 - 394.
  22. added 2017-07-04
    Reichenbach's Concept of Prediction.J. González Wenceslao - 1995 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 9 (1):37-58.
    Abstract Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is?for him?the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  23. added 2017-07-04
    Economic Prediction and Human Activity. An Analysis of Prediction in Economics From Action Theory.W. Gonzalez - 1994 - Epistemologia 17 (2):253-294.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  24. added 2017-07-04
    Explanation and Prediction in the Labour Process Theory.Richard Douglas Gordon - 1990 - Dissertation, The University of British Columbia (Canada)
    The view that large-scale, long-range social theories cannot be predictive other than "in principle" is sufficiently widespread as to be considered the orthodox view. It is widely held that, lacking this predictive quality, social theories are cut off from a crucial form of vindication enjoyed by the experimental sciences. Thus many would agree with Ryan's assessment that while with regard to large-scale social changes "long-range prediction is not in principle impossible," nonetheless as a matter of practical methodology such a goal (...)
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  25. added 2017-06-07
    Prediction and Accommodation Revisited.John Worrall - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45 (1):54-61.
    The paper presents a further articulation and defence of the view on prediction and accommodation that I have proposed earlier. It operates by analysing two accounts of the issue-by Patrick Maher and by Marc Lange-that, at least at first sight, appear to be rivals to my own. Maher claims that the time-order of theory and evidence may be important in terms of degree of confirmation, while that claim is explicitly denied in my account. I argue, however, that when his account (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   7 citations  
  26. added 2017-05-11
    Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers Are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?Spencer Phillips Hey & Jonathan Kimmelman - 2016 - Bioethics 30 (8):609-617.
    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach – forecast analysis – that would enable direct and (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  27. added 2016-12-12
    Underdetermination, Model-Ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-Analysis in Climatology.Gregor Betz - 2009 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 40 (1):3-21.
    As climate policy decisions are decisions under uncertainty, being based on a range of future climate change scenarios, it becomes a crucial question how to set up this scenario range. Failing to comply with the precautionary principle, the scenario methodology widely used in the Third Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seems to violate international environmental law, in particular a provision of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To place climate policy advice on a (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  28. added 2016-12-05
    Scientific Innovation and the Limits of Social Scientific Prediction.Alex Rosenberg - 1993 - Synthese 97 (2):161 - 181.
    Philosophers and historians of philosophy have come to recognize that at the core of logical positivism was an attachment to prediction as the necessary condition for scientific knowledge.1 The inheritors of their tradition, especially the Bayesians among us, continue to seek a theory of confirmation that reflects this epistemic commitment. The importance of prediction in the growth of scientific knowledge is a commitment I share with the positivists, so I do not blanch at that designation, much less employ it as (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  29. added 2016-11-28
    Experience and Prediction.Hans Reichenbach - 1938 - University of Chicago Press.
  30. added 2016-11-14
    Howson and Franklin on Prediction.Patrick Maher - 1993 - Philosophy of Science 60 (2):329-340.
    Evidence for a hypothesis typically confirms the hypothesis more if the evidence was predicted than if it was accommodated. Or so I argued in previous papers, where I also developed an analysis of why this should be so. But this was all a mistake if Howson and Franklin (1991) are to be believed. In this paper, I show why they are not to be believed. I also identify a grain of truth that may have been dimly grasped by those Bayesians (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  31. added 2016-11-14
    Numerical Weather Prediction.Sir John Mason - 1986 - In B. J. Mason, Peter Mathias & J. H. Westcott (eds.), Predictability in Science and Society: A Joint Symposium of the Royal Society and the British Academy Held on 20 and 21 March 1986. Scholium International.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  32. added 2016-11-04
    Zur Verteidigung Einiger Hempelscher Thesen Gegen Kritiken Stegmüllers.Michael Küttner - 1985 - Erkenntnis 22 (1-3):475 - 484.
    The aim of this paper is to defend some of C. G. Hempel's basic theses concerning the logic of explanation and prediction against criticisms recently made by W. Stegmüller. It is argued (very concisely) thatthese is no need for essentially pragmatic conditions in DN-arguments;only the structural identity sub-thesis “Every adequate prediction is ... an adequate explanation” can be held instead of the one Hempel has in mind;the notion of the ambiguity of probabilistic explanations should be reformulated;there is no need for (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  33. added 2016-10-02
    Beyond Belief Randomness, Prediction and Explanation in Science.J. L. Casti, Anders Karlqvist & Sweden - 1991
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  34. added 2016-09-30
    An Introduction to Experimentation.Brian Joseph Brinkworth - 1968 - New York: American Elsevier Pub. Co..
  35. added 2016-05-19
    The Risk GP Model: The Standard Model of Prediction in Medicine.Jonathan Fuller & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:49-61.
    With the ascent of modern epidemiology in the Twentieth Century came a new standard model of prediction in public health and clinical medicine. In this article, we describe the structure of the model. The standard model uses epidemiological measures-most commonly, risk measures-to predict outcomes (prognosis) and effect sizes (treatment) in a patient population that can then be transformed into probabilities for individual patients. In the first step, a risk measure in a study population is generalized or extrapolated to a target (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  36. added 2016-05-19
    Prediction in Epidemiology and Medicine.Jonathan Fuller, Alex Broadbent & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:45-48.
  37. added 2016-05-19
    Therapeutic Inferences for Individual Patients.Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 21 (3):440-447.
    RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Increased awareness of the gap between controlled research and medical practice has raised concerns over whether the special attention of doctors to probability estimates from clinical trials really improves the care of individuals. Evidence-based medicine has acknowledged that research results are not applicable to all kinds of patients, and consequently, has attempted to overcome this limitation by introducing improvements in the design and analysis of clinical trials. METHODS: A clinical case is used to highlight the premises (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  38. added 2016-04-03
    The Curious Case of the Self-Refuting Straw Man: Trafimow and Earp’s Response to Klein (2014).Stan Klein - 2016 - Theory and Psychology 26:549– 556.
    In their critique of Klein (2014a), Trafimow and Earp present two theses. First, they argue that, contra Klein, a well-specified theory is not a necessary condition for successful replication. Second, they contend that even when there is a well-specified theory, replication depends more on auxiliary assumptions than on theory proper. I take issue with both claims, arguing that (a) their first thesis confuses a material conditional (what I said) with a modal claim (T&E’s misreading of what I said), and (b) (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  39. added 2015-09-16
    Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction.Gregor Betz - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):191-215.
    Climate models don’t give us probabilistic forecasts. To interpret their results, alternatively, as serious possibilities seems problematic inasmuch as climate models rely on contrary-to-fact assumptions: why should we consider their implications as possible if their assumptions are known to be false? The paper explores a way to address this possibilistic challenge. It introduces the concepts of a perfect and of an imperfect credible world, and discusses whether climate models can be interpreted as imperfect credible worlds. That would allow one to (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  40. added 2015-09-16
    Mehr Besonnenheit, bitte! Über Prognosegrenzen und Politikberatung.Gregor Betz - 2011 - Ökologisches Wirtschaften 2011 (2):35-38.
    In einer Welt, in der der Umgang mit Komplexität und Unsicherheit an Bedeutung gewinnt, sind politische Entscheidungsträger immer stärker auf eine wissenschaftliche Beratung angewiesen. Trotz des Bedarfs der politischen Akteure nach konkreten Handlungsempfehlungen sollte seriöse Politikberatung die grundlegenden Werte wissenschaftlichen Arbeitens nicht aus den Augen verlieren.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  41. added 2015-09-04
    Space-Time Dimension Problem as a Stumbling Block of Inflationary Cosmology.Rinat M. Nugayev - 2013 - In Vadim V. Kazutinsky, Elena A. Mamchur, Alexandre D. Panov & V. D. Erekaev (eds.), Metauniverse,Space,Time. Institute of Philosophy of RAS. pp. 52-73.
    It is taken for granted that the explanation of the Universe’s space-time dimension belongs to the host of the arguments that exhibit the superiority of modern (inflationary) cosmology over the standard model. In the present paper some doubts are expressed . They are based upon the fact superstring theory is too formal to represent genuine unification of general relativity and quantum field theory. Neveretheless, the fact cannot exclude the opportunity that in future the superstring theory can become more physical. Hence (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  42. added 2015-09-02
    A More Fulfilling (and Frustrating) Take on Reflexive Predictions.Matthew Kopec - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (5):1249-1259.
    Even though social scientists continue to discuss the problems posed by self-fulfilling and self-frustrating predictions, philosophers of science have ignored the topic since the 1970s. Back then, the prevailing view was that the methodological problems posed by reflexive predictions are either minor or easily avoided. I believe that this consensus was premature, ultimately relying on an overly narrow understanding of the phenomenon. I present an improved way to understand reflexive predictions (framed in probabilistic terms) and show that, once such predictions (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  43. added 2015-04-04
    On Embodiment in Predictions. A Book Review. [REVIEW]Przemysław Nowakowski - 2015 - Avant: Trends in Interdisciplinary Studies (3):155-159.
  44. added 2015-04-04
    Reflections on Predictive Processing and the Mind. An Interview.Jakob Hohwy - 2014 - Avant: Trends in Interdisciplinary Studies (3):145-152.
  45. added 2014-09-25
    Ethics and Epistemology of Accurate Prediction in Clinical Research.Spencer Phillips Hey - 2015 - Journal of Medical Ethics 41 (7):559-562.
    All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  46. added 2014-04-03
    Predicting the Unpredictable.S. L. Zabell - 1992 - Synthese 90 (2):205-232.
    A major difficulty for currently existing theories of inductive inference involves the question of what to do when novel, unknown, or previously unsuspected phenomena occur. In this paper one particular instance of this difficulty is considered, the so-called sampling of species problem.The classical probabilistic theories of inductive inference due to Laplace, Johnson, de Finetti, and Carnap adopt a model of simple enumerative induction in which there are a prespecified number of types or species which may be observed. But, realistically, this (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  47. added 2014-03-31
    Non-Bayesian Foundations for Statistical Estimation, Prediction, and the Ravens Example.Malcolm R. Forster - 1994 - Erkenntnis 40 (3):357 - 376.
    The paper provides a formal proof that efficient estimates of parameters, which vary as as little as possible when measurements are repeated, may be expected to provide more accurate predictions. The definition of predictive accuracy is motivated by the work of Akaike (1973). Surprisingly, the same explanation provides a novel solution for a well known problem for standard theories of scientific confirmation — the Ravens Paradox. This is significant in light of the fact that standard Bayesian analyses of the paradox (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  48. added 2014-03-27
    A Theory of Evidence for Evidence-Based Policy.Nancy Cartwright & Jacob Stegenga - 2011 - In Philip Dawid, William Twining & Mimi Vasilaki (eds.), Evidence, Inference and Enquiry. Oup/British Academy. pp. 291.
    WE AIM HERE to outline a theory of evidence for use. More specifically we lay foundations for a guide for the use of evidence in predicting policy effectiveness in situ, a more comprehensive guide than current standard offerings, such as the Maryland rules in criminology, the weight of evidence scheme of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), or the US ‘What Works Clearinghouse’. The guide itself is meant to be well-grounded but at the same time to give practicable (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  49. added 2014-03-25
    What is the Problem of Ad Hoc Hypotheses?Greg Bamford - 1999 - Science & Education 8 (4):375 - 86..
    The received view of an ad hochypothesis is that it accounts for only the observation(s) it was designed to account for, and so non-ad hocness is generally held to be necessary or important for an introduced hypothesis or modification to a theory. Attempts by Popper and several others to convincingly explicate this view, however, prove to be unsuccessful or of doubtful value, and familiar and firmer criteria for evaluating the hypotheses or modified theories so classified are characteristically available. These points (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  50. added 2014-03-18
    Years of Successful Predictive Modeling Should Be Enough: Lessons for Philosophy of Science.Michael Bishop - 2002 - Philosophy of Science 69 (S3):S197-S208.
    Our aim in this paper is to bring the woefully neglected literature on predictive modeling to bear on some central questions in the philosophy of science. The lesson of this literature is straightforward: For a very wide range of prediction problems, statistical prediction rules (SPRs), often rules that are very easy to implement, make predictions than are as reliable as, and typically more reliable than, human experts. We will argue that the success of SPRs forces us to reconsider our views (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   6 citations  
1 — 50 / 68