About this topic
Summary In this category belong a range of puzzles that are analysed using probabililty and have philosophical implications. Perhaps the best known is Goodman's New Riddle of Induction (Grue), which can be seen as a strengthened version of Hume's problem of induction. The Paradox of the Ravens (the paradox of confirmation) is one of the central problems for theories of confirmation. It seems to show that obvious principles of confirmation generate the result that a white sneaker confirms that all ravens are black. The Sleeping Beauty problem concerns an agent who is woken on either one day or two, and faces the question of whether the current waking is part of the single waking or the double waking. This raises the issue of incorporating self-locating beliefs into the Bayesian framework. The Doomsday Argument purports to show that humans will die out sooner than we previously thought, based merely on our own birth rank among humans. The Monty Hall Problem is about whether you should swap doors, after tentatively choosing one of the three doors, one of which contains a prize, and finding that the door you selected does not have the prize.
Key works The New Riddle of Induction was introduced in Goodman 1954. The Paradox of the Ravens was introduced by Hosiasson-Lindenbaum 1940 and influentially discussed by Hempel 1945 I and Hempel 1945 II. Sleeping Beauty was introduced by Elga 2000, shortly followed by Lewis 2001. The Doomsday Argument was popularized largely by Leslie 1989.
Introductions The new riddle of induction and the paradox of the ravens are explained in section 5 of Vickers 2008. This Bostrom manuscript explains the Doomsday Argument and Titelbaum 2016 gives a summary of the responses to Sleeping Beauty
Related categories

420 found
Order:
1 — 50 / 420
Material to categorize
  1. Immortal Beauty: Does Existence Confirm Infinite Reincarnation?Jens Jaeger - manuscript
    In “Existence Is Evidence of Immortality”, Michael Huemer argues that our existence at a time gives us evidence that we are infinitely reincarnated. I argue that his argument is flawed, since it fails to account for the total evidence we gain from observing our existence at the current time. In particular, it neglects essentially de se, or self-locational, evidence. I then present a new, limited, argument for immortality. The argument takes its cue from the well-known Sleeping Beauty puzzle. It argues (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  2. R. A. Sharpe. Validity and the Paradox of Confirmation. The Philosophical Quarterly , Vol. 14 , Pp. 170–173. [REVIEW]David Kaplan - 1967 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 32 (2):251.
  3. Samuel Goldberg. Probability. An Introduction. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1960, Xiv + 322 Pp. [REVIEW]Stefan Bauer-Mengelberg - 1971 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 36 (3):543-544.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  4. Leblanc Hugues. Évidence Logique Et Degré de Confirmation. Revue Philosophique de Louvain, Vol. 52 , Pp. 619–625.Richard Montague - 1960 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 25 (1):86-86.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  5. Adams E. M.. Hall's Analysis of “Ought.” The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 55 , Pp. 73–75.Hall Everett W.. Existential Normatives. The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 55 , Pp. 75–77. [REVIEW]Romane Clark - 1959 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 24 (3):265-266.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  6. Everett W. Hall. What is Value? An Essay in Philosophical Analysis. The Humanities Press, New York1952, and Routledge & Kegan Paul, London 1952, Xi + 255 Pp. - Herbert Hochberg. ‘Fitting’ as a Semantical Predicate. Mind, N.S. Vol. 65 , Pp. 530–533. - Everett W. Hall. Hochberg on What is ‘Fitting’ for Ewing and Hall. Mind, N.S. Vol. 67 , Pp. 104–106. - E. M. Adams. The Nature of Ought. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 7 , Pp. 36–42. - Everett W. Hall. Further Words on ‘Ought.’Philosophical Studies , Vol. 7 , Pp. 74–78. - E. M. Adams. ‘Ought’ Again. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 8 , Pp. 86–89. [REVIEW]Romane Clark - 1959 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 24 (1):89-91.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  7. Hempel Carl G.. A Logical Appraisal of Operationism. The Scientific Monthly, Vol. 79 , Pp. 215–220.Henry Mehlberg - 1958 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 23 (3):354-356.
  8. Freund John E.. On the Problem of Confirmation. Methodos, Vol. 3 , Pp. 33–42Somenzi Vittorio. Discussion. Methodos, Vol. 3 , P. 42. [REVIEW]Hilary Putnam - 1958 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 23 (1):76-77.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  9. Crawshay-Williams Rupert. Equivocal Confirmation. Analysis , Vol. 11 No. 4 , Pp. 73–79.Hilary Putnam - 1957 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 22 (4):406-407.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  10. Goodman Nelson. New Notes on Simplicity.Frederic B. Fitch - 1953 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 18 (2):179-179.
  11. Goodman Nelson. Some Reflections of the Theory of Systems. English with Spanish Abstract. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Vol. 9 No. 3 , Pp. 620–626. [REVIEW]Frederic B. Fitch - 1950 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 15 (3):218-218.
  12. Goodman Nelson. On Likeness of Meaning. Analysis , Vol. 10 No. 1 , Pp. 1–7.Alonzo Church - 1950 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 15 (2):150-151.
  13. Miller David L.. Comments on “Studies in the Logic of Explanation.” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 15 , Pp. 348–349.Thomas Storer - 1949 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 14 (2):133-133.
  14. Morris Charles. Signs, Language, and Behavior. Prentice-Hall, Inc., New York 1946, V + 356 Pp. [REVIEW]Arthur Francis Smullyan - 1947 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 12 (2):49-51.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  15. Hempel Carl G.. A Note on the Paradoxes of Confirmation. Mind, N. S. Vol. 55 , Pp. 79–82.Max Black - 1946 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (4):124-124.
  16. Goodman Nelson. A Query on Confirmation. The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 43 , Pp. 383–385.Max Black - 1946 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (3):81-81.
  17. Hempel C. G.. Geometry and Empirical Science. The American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 52 , Pp. 7–17.Alonzo Church - 1946 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (3):100-100.
  18. Hempel Carl G. And Oppenheim Paul. A Definition of “Degree of Confirmation.” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 12 , Pp. 98–115. [REVIEW]Max Black - 1946 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (1):18-19.
  19. Whiteley C. H.. Hempel's Paradoxes of Confirmation. Mind, N. S. Vol. 54 , Pp. 156–158.Max Black - 1945 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 10 (3):104-104.
  20. Hempel. Carl G. A Purely Syntactical Definition of Confirmation.Max Black - 1944 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 9 (2):47-47.
  21. Goodman Nelson. On the Simplicity of Ideas.George D. W. Berry - 1944 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 9 (2):52-53.
  22. Goodman Nelson. Sequences.J. C. C. McKinsey - 1942 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 7 (3):120-120.
  23. Leonard Henry S. And Goodman Nelson. The Calculus of Individuals and its Uses. [REVIEW]Laurence J. Lafleur - 1940 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 5 (3):113-114.
  24. Gonseth F.. Qu'est-Ce Que la Logique? Actualités Scientifiques Et Industrielles 524, Hermann & Cie, Paris 1937, 89 Pp. [REVIEW]Paul Henle - 1938 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 3 (4):164-164.
  25. Hempel C. G.. Le Problème de la Vérité. Theoria, Vol. 3 , Pp. 206–246.C. H. Langford - 1937 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 2 (4):170-171.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  26. The Sleeping Lord.René Hague - 1974 - New Blackfriars 55 (652):402-415.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  27. Updating a Progic.Eric Raidl - 2016 - Journal of Applied Logic 14:65-94.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  28. The Goodman Paradox: Three Different Problems and a Naturalistic Solution to Two of Them.Nathan Stemmer - 2004 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 35 (2):351-370.
    It is now more than 50 years that the Goodman paradox has been discussed, and many different solutions have been proposed. But so far no agreement has been reached about which is the correct solution to the paradox. In this paper, I present the naturalistic solutions to the paradox that were proposed in Quine (1969, 1974), Quine and Ullian (1970/1978), and Stemmer (1971). At the same time, I introduce a number of modifications and improvements that are needed for overcoming shortcomings (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (7 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  29. A Defense of the Principle of Indifference.Greg Novack - 2010 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 39 (6):655-678.
    The principle of indifference (hereafter ‘Poi’) says that if one has no more reason to believe A than B (and vice versa ), then one ought not to believe A more than B (nor vice versa ). Many think it’s demonstrably false despite its intuitive plausibility, because of a particular style of thought experiment that generates counterexamples. Roger White ( 2008 ) defends Poi by arguing that its antecedent is false in these thought experiments. Like White I believe Poi, but (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  30. Testability and Ockham’s Razor: How Formal and Statistical Learning Theory Converge in the New Riddle of Induction.Daniel Steel - 2009 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 38 (5):471-489.
    Nelson Goodman's new riddle of induction forcefully illustrates a challenge that must be confronted by any adequate theory of inductive inference: provide some basis for choosing among alternative hypotheses that fit past data but make divergent predictions. One response to this challenge is to distinguish among alternatives by means of some epistemically significant characteristic beyond fit with the data. Statistical learning theory takes this approach by showing how a concept similar to Popper's notion of degrees of testability is linked to (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  31. Goodman’s “New Riddle”.Branden Fitelson - 2008 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 37 (6):613-643.
    First, a brief historical trace of the developments in confirmation theory leading up to Goodman's infamous "grue" paradox is presented. Then, Goodman's argument is analyzed from both Hempelian and Bayesian perspectives. A guiding analogy is drawn between certain arguments against classical deductive logic, and Goodman's "grue" argument against classical inductive logic. The upshot of this analogy is that the "New Riddle" is not as vexing as many commentators have claimed. Specifically, the analogy reveals an intimate connection between Goodman's problem, and (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   15 citations  
  32. Sleeping Beauty, Countable Additivity, and Rational Dilemmas.J. Ross - 2010 - Philosophical Review 119 (4):411-447.
    Currently, the most popular views about how to update de se or self-locating beliefs entail the one-third solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem.2 Another widely held view is that an agent‘s credences should be countably additive.3 In what follows, I will argue that there is a deep tension between these two positions. For the assumptions that underlie the one-third solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem entail a more general principle, which I call the Generalized Thirder Principle, and there are situations (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (10 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   20 citations  
  33. An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument – Gott's Line and Leslie's Wedge.E. Sober - 2003 - Synthese 135 (3):415-430.
    I discuss two versions of the doomsday argument. According to "Gott's Line", the fact that the human race has existed for 200,000 years licences the prediction that it will last between 5100 and 7.8 million more years. According to "Leslie's Wedge", the fact that I currently exist is evidence that increases the plausibility of the hypothesis that the human race will come to an end sooner rather than later. Both arguments rest on substantive assumptions about the sampling process that underlies (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   8 citations  
  34. ‘Yes:—No:—I Have Been Sleeping—and Now—Now—I Am Dead’: Undeath, the Body and Medicine.Megan Stern - 2008 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 39 (3):347-354.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  35. Incoherence and Inconsistency.Michael Schippers - 2014 - Review of Symbolic Logic 7 (3):511-528.
  36. 34. The Problem of the Enjoyment of Beauty.Guy Sircello - 2015 - In New Theory of Beauty. Princeton University Press. pp. 126-129.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  37. 25. The Problem of Moral Beauty.Guy Sircello - 2015 - In New Theory of Beauty. Princeton University Press. pp. 81-84.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  38. The Disordered Bedin the Sleeping Venus.Jodi Cranston - 2013 - In Iris Wenderholm, Jörg Trempler & Markus Rath (eds.), Das Haptische Bild: Körperhafte Bilderfahrung in der Neuzeit. De Gruyter. pp. 31-50.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  39. The Sleeping King.Richard Jackson - 1969 - Bibliothèque d'Humanisme Et Renaissance 31 (3):525-551.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  40. On the Problem of Confirmation.John E. Freund - 1958 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 23 (1):76-77.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  41. LESLIE, JOHN "Value and Existence". [REVIEW]Colin Lyas - 1980 - Philosophy 55:275.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  42. Locating Dutrochet.J. V. Pickstone - 1978 - British Journal for the History of Science 11 (1):49-64.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  43. Subtitles: A Sampling of Subtleties, Subterfuges, and Subtopics.A. Weissman - 1986 - Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 30 (4):575-580.
  44. A Shooting Room View Oj Doomsday, William Eckhardt.Temporal Horizons oj Justice - 1997 - Mind 106 (421).
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  45. Leslie, J.-The End of the World.A. G. Padgett - 1998 - Philosophical Books 39:222-224.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  46. From Typical Areas to Random Sampling: Sampling Methods in Russia From 1875 to 1930.Martine Mespoulet - 2002 - Science in Context 15 (3):411-425.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  47. Problem Decomposition for Problem Solution.Leona F. Fass - 2001 - Bulletin of Symbolic Logic 7 (3):431-432.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  48. Introduction: Sleeping Bodies.Simon Johnson Williams & Nick Crossley - 2008 - Body and Society 14 (4):1-13.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  49. The Poet in the Poem: A Phenomenological Analysis of Anne Sexton's: Briar Rose (Sleeping Beauty) in The Existential Coordinates of the Human Condition: Poetic, Epic, Tragic. The Literary Genre.Ca Miller - 1984 - Analecta Husserliana 18:61-73.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  50. Hindutva: Whipping Up Sleeping Slaves.V. T. Rajshekar - 2004 - Journal of Dharma 29 (1):73-78.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
1 — 50 / 420