About this topic
Summary In this category belong a range of puzzles that are analysed using probabililty and have philosophical implications. Perhaps the best known is Goodman's New Riddle of Induction (Grue), which can be seen as a strengthened version of Hume's problem of induction. The Paradox of the Ravens (the paradox of confirmation) is one of the central problems for theories of confirmation. It seems to show that obvious principles of confirmation generate the result that a white sneaker confirms that all ravens are black. The Sleeping Beauty problem concerns an agent who is woken on either one day or two, and faces the question of whether the current waking is part of the single waking or the double waking. This raises the issue of incorporating self-locating beliefs into the Bayesian framework. The Doomsday Argument purports to show that humans will die out sooner than we previously thought, based merely on our own birth rank among humans. The Monty Hall Problem is about whether you should swap doors, after tentatively choosing one of the three doors, one of which contains a prize, and finding that the door you selected does not have the prize.
Key works The New Riddle of Induction was introduced in Goodman 1954. The Paradox of the Ravens was introduced by Hosiasson-Lindenbaum 1940 and influentially discussed by Hempel 1945 I and Hempel 1945 II. Sleeping Beauty was introduced by Elga 2000, shortly followed by Lewis 2001. The Doomsday Argument was popularized largely by Leslie 1989.
Introductions The new riddle of induction and the paradox of the ravens are explained in section 5 of Vickers 2008. This Bostrom manuscript explains the Doomsday Argument and Titelbaum forthcoming gives a summary of the responses to Sleeping Beauty
  Show all references
Related categories
Subcategories:
354 found
Search inside:
(import / add options)   Order:
1 — 50 / 354
Material to categorize
  1. Stefan Bauer-Mengelberg (1971). Goldberg Samuel. Probability. An Introduction. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1960, Xiv + 322 Pp. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 36 (3):543-544.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  2. George D. W. Berry (1944). Goodman Nelson. On the Simplicity of Ideas. Journal of Symbolic Logic 9 (2):52-53.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  3. Max Black (1946). Goodman Nelson. A Query on Confirmation. The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 43 , Pp. 383–385. Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (3):81.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  4. Max Black (1946). Hempel Carl G. And Oppenheim Paul. A Definition of “Degree of Confirmation.” Philosophy of Science, Vol. 12 , Pp. 98–115. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (1):18-19.
  5. Max Black (1946). Hempel Carl G.. A Note on the Paradoxes of Confirmation. Mind, N. S. Vol. 55 , Pp. 79–82. Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (4):124.
  6. Max Black (1945). Whiteley C. H.. Hempel's Paradoxes of Confirmation. Mind, N. S. Vol. 54 , Pp. 156–158. Journal of Symbolic Logic 10 (3):104.
  7. Max Black (1944). Hempel. Carl G. A Purely Syntactical Definition of Confirmation. Journal of Symbolic Logic 9 (2):47.
  8. Nick Bostrom (2002). Self-Locating Belief in Big Worlds: Cosmology's Missing Link to Observation. Journal of Philosophy 99 (12):607-623.
    Current cosmological theories say that the world is so big that all possible observations are in fact made. But then, how can such theories be tested? What could count as negative evidence? To answer that, we need to consider observation selection effects.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (10 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   6 citations  
  9. Michael Caie (forthcoming). Agreement Theorems for Self-Locating Belief. Review of Symbolic Logic.
  10. Robert L. Causey (1972). Goodman Nelson. Axiomatic Measurement of Simplicity. The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 52 , Pp. 709–722. Journal of Symbolic Logic 37 (1):174-175.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  11. Robert L. Causey (1972). Goodman Nelson. Condensation Versus Simplification. Theoria , Vol. 27 , Pp. 47–48. Journal of Symbolic Logic 37 (1):177.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  12. Robert L. Causey (1972). Goodman Nelson. Recent Developments in the Theory of Simplicity. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Vol. 19 No. 4 , Pp. 429–446. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 37 (1):176-177.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  13. Robert L. Causey (1972). Goodman Nelson. The Test of Simplicity. Science, Vol. 128 , Pp. 1064–1069. Journal of Symbolic Logic 37 (1):176.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  14. Alonzo Church (1950). Goodman Nelson. On Likeness of Meaning. Analysis , Vol. 10 No. 1 , Pp. 1–7. Journal of Symbolic Logic 15 (2):150-151.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  15. Alonzo Church (1946). Hempel C. G.. Geometry and Empirical Science. The American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 52 , Pp. 7–17. Journal of Symbolic Logic 11 (3):100.
  16. Romane Clark (1959). Adams E. M.. Hall's Analysis of “Ought.” The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 55 , Pp. 73–75.Hall Everett W.. Existential Normatives. The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 55 , Pp. 75–77. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 24 (3):265-266.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  17. Romane Clark (1959). Hall Everett W.. What is Value? An Essay in Philosophical Analysis. The Humanities Press, New York 1952, and Routledge & Kegan Paul, London 1952, Xi + 255 Pp.Hochberg Herbert. ‘Fitting’ as a Semantical Predicate. Mind, N.S. Vol. 65 , Pp. 530–533.Hall Everett W.. Hochberg on What is ‘Fitting’ for Ewing and Hall. Mind, N.S. Vol. 67 , Pp. 104–106.Adams E. M.. The Nature of Ought. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 7 , Pp. 36–42.Hall Everett W.. Further Words on ‘Ought.’ Philosophical Studies , Vol. 7 , Pp. 74–78.Adams E. M.. ‘Ought’ Again. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 8 , Pp. 86–89. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 24 (1):89-91.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  18. Jodi Cranston (2013). The Disordered Bedin the Sleeping Venus. In Iris Wenderholm, Jörg Trempler & Markus Rath (eds.), Das Haptische Bild: Körperhafte Bilderfahrung in der Neuzeit. De Gruyter. pp. 31-50.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  19. William Eckhardt (1997). A Shooting-Room View of Doomsday. Journal of Philosophy 94 (5):244.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  20. Frederic B. Fitch (1953). Goodman Nelson. New Notes on Simplicity. Journal of Symbolic Logic 18 (2):179.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  21. Frederic B. Fitch (1950). Goodman Nelson. Some Reflections of the Theory of Systems. English with Spanish Abstract. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, Vol. 9 No. 3 , Pp. 620–626. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 15 (3):218.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  22. Branden Fitelson (2008). Goodman’s “New Riddle”. Journal of Philosophical Logic 37 (6):613-643.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  23. Jean H. Gallier (1984). Lewis Harry R. And Papadimitriou Christos H.. Elements of the Theory of Computation. Prentice-Hall Software Series. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1981, Xiv + 466 Pp. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 49 (3):989-990.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  24. I. J. Good (1961). The Paradox of Confirmation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 12 (45):63-64.
  25. L. J. Good (1960). The Paradox of Confirmation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 11 (42):145-b-145.
  26. René Hague (1974). The Sleeping Lord. New Blackfriars 55 (652):402-415.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  27. William W. Heist (1944). Welsh Prose Versions of the Fifteen Signs Before Doomsday. Speculum 19 (4):421-432.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  28. Paul Henle (1938). Hempel Carl G.. Ein System Verallgemeinerter Negationen. Travaux du IXe Congrès International de Philosophie, VI Logique Et Mathématiques, Actualités Scientifiques Et Industrielles 535, Hermann Et Cie, Paris 1937, Pp. 26–32. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 3 (4):164.
    Remove from this list  
    Translate
      Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  29. Terry Horgan (2008). Synchronic Bayesian Updating and the Sleeping Beauty Problem: Reply to Pust. Synthese 160 (2):155-159.
    I maintain, in defending “thirdism,” that Sleeping Beauty should do Bayesian updating after assigning the “preliminary probability” 1/4 to the statement S: “Today is Tuesday and the coin flip is heads.” (This preliminary probability obtains relative to a specific proper subset I of her available information.) Pust objects that her preliminary probability for S is really zero, because she could not be in an epistemic situation in which S is true. I reply that the impossibility of being in such an (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  30. Richard Jackson (1969). The Sleeping King. Bibliothèque d'Humanisme Et Renaissance 31 (3):525-551.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  31. David Kaplan (1967). Sharpe R. A.. Validity and the Paradox of Confirmation. The Philosophical Quarterly , Vol. 14 , Pp. 170–173. Journal of Symbolic Logic 32 (2):251.
  32. David Kaplan (1967). Vincent R. H.. The Paradoxes of Confirmation. Mind, N.S. Vol. 73 , Pp. 273–279. Journal of Symbolic Logic 32 (2):250-251.
  33. David Kaplan (1967). Watkins J. W. N.. Between Analytic and Empirical. Philosophy, Vol. 32 , Pp. 112–131.Hempel Carl G.. Empirical Statements and Falsifiability. Philosophy, Vol. 33 , Pp. 342–348.Watkins J. W. N.. A Rejoinder to Professor Hempel's Reply. Philosophy, Pp. 349–355.Scheffler Israel. A Note on Confirmation. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 11 , Pp. 21–23.Watkins J. W. N.. Professor Scheffler's Note. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 12 , Pp. 16–19.Scheffler Israel. A Rejoinder on Confirmation. Philosophical Studies , Vol. 12 , Pp. 19–20. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 32 (2):246-249.
  34. Asa Kasher (1972). Hempel Carl G.. Aspects of Scientific Explanation. Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science, by Hempel Carl G., The Free Press, New York, and Collier-Macmillan Ltd., London, 1965, Pp. 331–496. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 37 (4):747-749.
  35. Francis J. Kovach (1985). About Beauty, A Thomistic Interpretation. Review of Metaphysics 38 (3):662-664.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  36. Laurence J. Lafleur (1940). Leonard Henry S. And Goodman Nelson. The Calculus of Individuals and its Uses. Journal of Symbolic Logic 5 (3):113-114.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  37. C. H. Langford (1937). Hempel C. G.. Le Problème de la Vérité. Theoria, Vol. 3 , Pp. 206–246. Journal of Symbolic Logic 2 (4):170-171.
    Remove from this list  
    Translate
      Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  38. Robin Le Poidevin (2016). The Two-Way Doomsday Machine. Think 15 (42):9-14.
    A thought experiment invites us to examine our intuitive beliefs about the reality of the past, the reality of the future, and our capacity to affect either, and provides a test of our attitudes towards life. Given an inescapable choice and extraordinary power, would it be our duty to destroy the whole of reality, both past and future?
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  39. Guy Lemieux (1935). Outline of the Problem of Beauty. Modern Schoolman 12 (4):93-94.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  40. Guy Lemieux (1935). Outline of the Problem of Beauty, Conclusion. Modern Schoolman 12 (4):96-96.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  41. Y. Liu, A. Bisazza, M. M. Botvinick, N. Chomsky, C. DiYanni, L. Feigenson, W. T. Fitch, J. I. Flombaum, U. Hahn & M. D. Hauser (2005). Leslie, AM, 153. Cognition 97:337.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  42. Colin Lyas (1980). LESLIE, JOHN "Value and Existence". [REVIEW] Philosophy 55:275.
    Remove from this list  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  43. R. M. Martin (1960). Review: Nelson Goodman, Fact, Fiction, & Forecast. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 25 (3):250-251.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  44. Gerald J. Massey (1974). Oliver Leslie Reiser 1895-1974. Proceedings and Addresses of the American Philosophical Association 48:179 - 180.
    Remove from this list   Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  45. Randall G. McCutcheon, This is the End, Beautiful Friend.
    The main theses of this paper are roughly as follows: 1. The solution to Sleeping Beauty is a matter of convention in the explication of "credence". The halfer view is basically that credences are analogous to population proportions, while the thirder view is that credences are analogous to sample proportions. 2. The rival explications of "credence" have underpinnings in two competing conventions about the accrual of certain decision-theoretic quantities. Following Jacob Ross, I term these conventions "Single Awakening Legitimacy" and "Every (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  46. Randall G. McCutcheon, Sleeping Beauty: Why Violations of Probability Laws Are `Deal' Breakers.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  47. Mary Kate McGowan (2002). Gruesome Connections. Philosophical Quarterly 52 (206):21-33.
    It is widely recognized that Goodman's grue example demonstrates that the rules for induction, unlike those for deduction, cannot be purely syntactic. Ways in which Goodman's proof generalizes, however, are not widely recognized. Gruesome considerations demonstrate that neither theories of simplicity nor theories of empirical confirmation can be purely syntactic. Moreover, the grue paradox can be seen as an instance of a much more general phenomenon. All empirical investigations require semantic constraints, since purely structural constraints are inadequate. Both Russell's theory (...)
    Remove from this list   Direct download (8 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography   1 citation  
  48. J. C. C. McKinsey (1942). Goodman Nelson. Sequences. Journal of Symbolic Logic 7 (3):120.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
  49. Henry Mehlberg (1958). Hempel Carl G.. A Logical Appraisal of Operationism. The Scientific Monthly, Vol. 79 , Pp. 215–220. Journal of Symbolic Logic 23 (3):354-356.
  50. Henry Mehlberg (1958). Review: Carl G. Hempel, A Logical Appraisal of Operationism. [REVIEW] Journal of Symbolic Logic 23 (3):354-356.
    Remove from this list   Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    My bibliography  
1 — 50 / 354