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  1. added 2018-08-13
    Probability: A Philosophical Introduction.D. H. Mellor - 2004 - Routledge.
    _Probability: A Philosophical Introduction_ introduces and explains the principal concepts and applications of probability. It is intended for philosophers and others who want to understand probability as we all apply it in our working and everyday lives. The book is not a course in mathematical probability, of which it uses only the simplest results, and avoids all needless technicality. The role of probability in modern theories of knowledge, inference, induction, causation, laws of nature, action and decision-making makes an understanding of (...)
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  2. added 2018-02-18
    What Fitness Can’T Be.André Ariew & Zachary Ernst - 2009 - Erkenntnis 71 (3):289-301.
    Recently advocates of the propensity interpretation of fitness have turned critics. To accommodate examples from the population genetics literature they conclude that fitness is better defined broadly as a family of propensities rather than the propensity to contribute descendants to some future generation. We argue that the propensity theorists have misunderstood the deeper ramifications of the examples they cite. These examples demonstrate why there are factors outside of propensities that determine fitness. We go on to argue for the more general (...)
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  3. added 2018-02-17
    Propensities and Pragmatism.Mauricio Suárez - 2013 - Journal of Philosophy 110 (2):61-92.
    : This paper outlines a genuinely pragmatist conception of propensity, and defends it against common objections to the propensity interpretation of probability, prominently Humphreys’ paradox. The paper reviews the paradox and identifies one of its key assumptions, the identity thesis, according to which propensities are probabilities. The identity thesis is also involved in empiricist propensity interpretations deriving from Popper’s influential original proposal, and makes such interpretations untenable. As an alternative, I urge a return to Charles Peirce’s original insights on probabilistic (...)
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  4. added 2017-01-29
    T-Theoretical Single-Case Ontic Probability.David Grünberg - unknown - Yeditepe'de Felsefe (Philosophy at Yeditepe) 4.
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  5. added 2017-01-29
    Propensities and Probabilities. [REVIEW]Henry E. Kyberg - 1974 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 25:358.
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  6. added 2017-01-27
    Two Interpretations of Objective Probability. On the Ambiguity of Popper's Conception of Propensities.Christina Schneider - 1994 - Philosophia Naturalis 31 (1):107-131.
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  7. added 2017-01-26
    Frequencies and Propensities: Inference to the Best Explanation.J. H. Fetzer - 2002 - Synthese 132 (1-2).
  8. added 2017-01-25
    Mauricio Suárez, Ed. 2011. Probabilities, Causes, and Propensities in Physics.Foad Dizadji-Bahmani - 2013 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 28 (2):339-342.
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  9. added 2017-01-25
    Popper on Probability.Jozef Katina - 2010 - Filozofia 65 (4):343-355.
    One part of the paper is devoted to frequency interpretation, as advocated by early K. Popper. However, the main subject of the paper is Popper’s own propensity interpretation of probability. It outlines the fundamental principles of the propensity interpretation, as well as its relation to quantum theory and its various variants. In conclusion it examines the so called Humpreys’s paradox as related to the interpretation of causality in the frame of Popper’s propensity interpretation.
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  10. added 2017-01-22
    Don't Take Unnecessary Chances!Henry E. Kyburg Jr - 2002 - Synthese 132 (1/2):9 - 26.
    The dominant argument for the introduction of propensities or chances as an interpretation of probability depends on the difficulty of accounting for single case probabilities. We argue that in almost all cases, the "single case" application of probability can be accounted for otherwise. "Propensities" are needed only in theoretical contexts, and even there applications of probability need only depend on propensities indirectly.
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  11. added 2017-01-22
    Review: Popper, Propensities, and Quantum Theory. [REVIEW]Henry Krips - 1984 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35 (3):253 - 274.
  12. added 2017-01-22
    Review: Propensities: A Discussion Review. [REVIEW]Wesley C. Salmon - 1979 - Erkenntnis 14 (2):183 - 216.
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  13. added 2017-01-22
    Review: Propensities and Probabilities. [REVIEW]Henry E. Kyberg - 1974 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 25 (4):358 - 375.
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  14. added 2017-01-19
    Propensity and Possibility.Uwe Meixner - 1993 - Erkenntnis 38 (3):323 - 341.
  15. added 2017-01-19
    Comments on Patrick Suppes “Propensity Interpretations of Probability”.Maria Carla Galavotti - 1987 - Erkenntnis 26 (3):359 - 368.
  16. added 2017-01-19
    Some Further Remarks on Propensity: Reply to Maria-Carla Galavotti. [REVIEW]Patrick Suppes - 1987 - Erkenntnis 26 (3):369 - 376.
  17. added 2017-01-19
    Can There Be a Realist Single-Case Interpretation of Probability?Peter Milne - 1986 - Erkenntnis 25 (2):129 - 132.
  18. added 2017-01-19
    Propensity Theories of Probability Unscathed: A Reply to White.Tom Settle - 1972 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 23 (4):331-335.
  19. added 2017-01-19
    Possibility, Propensity, and Chance: Some Doubts About the Hacking Thesis.Margaret D. Wilson - 1971 - Journal of Philosophy 68 (19):610-617.
  20. added 2017-01-18
    A Propensity Interpretation for Quantum Probabilities.H. Krips - 1989 - Philosophical Quarterly 39 (156):308-333.
  21. added 2017-01-16
    Propensities and Indeterminism.David Miller - 1995 - Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 39:121-147.
    In these prefatory remarks, which are designed to locate my topic within the complex and wide-stretching field of Popper's thought and writings, I shall not say anything that those familiar with his work will not already know. Moreover, what I do say will take as understood many of the problems and theories, not to mention the terminology, that I shall later be doing my best to make understandable. My apologies are therefore due equally to those who know something about Popper's (...)
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  22. added 2017-01-15
    Suárez, Ed. 2011. Probabilities, Causes, and Propensities in Physics.Foad Dizadji-Bahmani - 2013 - Theoria: Revista de Teoría, Historia y Fundamentos de la Ciencia 28 (2):339-342.
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  23. added 2017-01-15
    Propensities and Probabilities.Nuel Belnap - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (3):593-625.
    Popper’s introduction of ‘‘propensity’’ was intended to provide a solid conceptual foundation for objective single-case probabilities. By considering the partly opposed contributions of Humphreys and Miller and Salmon, it is argued that when properly understood, propensities can in fact be understood as objective single-case causal probabilities of transitions between concrete events. The chief claim is that propensities are well-explicated by describing how they fit into the existing formal theory of branching space-times, which is simultaneously indeterministic and causal. Several problematic examples, (...)
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  24. added 2017-01-14
    The Propensity Interpretation of Probability: A Re-Evaluation.Joseph Berkovitz - 2015 - Erkenntnis 80 (S3):629-711.
    Single-case and long-run propensity theories are among the main objective interpretations of probability. There have been various objections to these theories, e.g. that it is difficult to explain why propensities should satisfy the probability axioms and, worse, that propensities are at odds with these axioms, that the explication of propensities is circular and accordingly not informative, and that single-case propensities are metaphysical and accordingly non-scientific. We consider various propensity theories of probability and their prospects in light of these objections. We (...)
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  25. added 2017-01-14
    Dispositions, Causes and Propensities in Science. Introduction.Mauricio Suárez - unknown
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  26. added 2016-12-23
    A Modest Proposal About Chance.Jenann Ismael - 2011 - Journal of Philosophy 108 (8):416-442.
    First para: Before the 17th century, there was not much discussion, and little uniformity in conception, of natural laws. The rise of science in 17th century, Newton’s mathematization of physics, and the provision of strict, deterministic laws that applied equally to the heavens and to the terrestrial realm had a profound impact in transforming the philosophical imagination. A philosophical conception of physical law built on the example of Newtonian Mechanics became quickly entrenched. Between the 17th and 20th centuries, there was (...)
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  27. added 2016-12-08
    Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem.Jan Sprenger - 2010 - Synthese 174 (3):331-340.
    The application of probabilistic arguments to rational decisions in a single case is a contentious philosophical issue which arises in various contexts. Some authors (e.g. Horgan, Philos Pap 24:209–222, 1995; Levy, Synthese 158:139–151, 2007) affirm the normative force of probabilistic arguments in single cases while others (Baumann, Am Philos Q 42:71–79, 2005; Synthese 162:265–273, 2008) deny it. I demonstrate that both sides do not give convincing arguments for their case and propose a new account of the relationship between probabilistic reasoning (...)
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  28. added 2016-12-08
    The Propensity Theory: A Decision-Theoretic Restatement.M. Albert - 2007 - Synthese 156 (3):587-603.
    Probability theory is important because of its relevance for decision making, which also means: its relevance for the single case. The propensity theory of objective probability, which addresses the single case, is subject to two problems: Humphreys’ problem of inverse probabilities and the problem of the reference class. The paper solves both problems by restating the propensity theory using (an objectivist version of) Pearl’s approach to causality and probability, and by applying a decision-theoretic perspective. Contrary to a widely held view, (...)
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  29. added 2016-12-08
    Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Physics.J. Barretto Bastos Filho & F. Selleri - 1995 - Foundations of Physics 25 (5):701-716.
    Popper's idea of propensities constituting the physical background of predictable probabilities is reviewed and developed by introducing a suitable formalism compatible with standard probability calculus and with its frequency interpretation. Quantum statistical ensembles described as pure cases (“eigenstates”) are shown to be necessarily not homogeneous if propensities are actually at work in nature. An extension of the theory to EPR experiments with local propensities leads to a new and more general proof of Bell's theorem. No joint probabilities for incompatible observables (...)
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  30. added 2015-08-24
    On Some Scientific Modalities: Propensities, Randomness and Causation.Antony Eagle - 2004 - Dissertation, Princeton University
    The essays that constitute this dissertation explore three strategies for understanding the role of modality in philosophical accounts of propensities, randomness, and causation. In Chapter 1, I discuss how the following essays are to be considered as illuminating the prospects for these strategies, which I call reductive essentialism, subjectivism and pragmatism. The discussion is framed within a survey of approaches to modality more broadly construed. ;In Chapter 2, I argue that any broadly dispositional analysis of probability as a physical property (...)
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  31. added 2015-06-05
    Leaving Things to Take Their Chances : Cause and Disposition Grounded in Chance.Stephen Barker - 2009 - In Toby Handfield (ed.), Dispositions and Causes. Oxford University Press, Clarendon Press ;.
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  32. added 2015-06-05
    Chapter Three. Cause and Chance.Paul Humphreys - 1992 - In The Chances of Explanation: Causal Explanation in the Social, Medical, and Physical Sciences. Princeton University Press. pp. 61-97.
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  33. added 2015-04-06
    Toward a Propensity Interpretation of Stochastic Mechanism for the Life Sciences.Lane DesAutels - 2015 - Synthese 192 (9):2921-2953.
    In what follows, I suggest that it makes good sense to think of the truth of the probabilistic generalizations made in the life sciences as metaphysically grounded in stochastic mechanisms in the world. To further understand these stochastic mechanisms, I take the general characterization of mechanism offered by MDC :1–25, 2000) and explore how it fits with several of the going philosophical accounts of chance: subjectivism, frequentism, Lewisian best-systems, and propensity. I argue that neither subjectivism, frequentism, nor a best-system-style interpretation (...)
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  34. added 2015-03-24
    Propensities in Quantum Mechanics.Mauricio Suárez - unknown
    I review five explicit attempts throughout the history of quantum mechanics to invoke dispositional notions in order to solve the quantum paradoxes, namely: Margenau’s latencies, Heisenberg’s potentialities, Popper’s propensity interpretation of probability, Nick Maxwell’s propensitons, and the recent selective propensities interpretation of quantum mechanics. I raise difficulties and challenges for all of them, but conclude that the selective propensities approach nicely encompasses the virtues of its predecessors. I elaborate on some of the properties of the type of propensities that I (...)
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  35. added 2015-03-24
    Characteristics and Propensities of Marmosets and Tamarins: Implications for Studies of Innovation.Hilary O. Box - 2003 - In Simon M. Reader & Kevin N. Laland (eds.), Animal Innovation. Oxford University Press.
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  36. added 2015-03-23
    Propensities and Frequencies.James H. Fetzer - 2010 - In Ellery Eells & James H. Fetzer (eds.), The Place of Probability in Science. Springer. pp. 323--351.
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  37. added 2015-03-23
    Are Some Propensities Probabilities?Tom Settle - 1973 - In Radu J. Bogdan & Ilkka Niiniluoto (eds.), Logic, Language, and Probability. Boston: D. Reidel Pub. Co.. pp. 115--120.
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  38. added 2015-03-19
    Pass It On: Towards a Political Economy of Propensity.N. J. Thrift - unknown
    The paper argues that the work of Gabriel Tarde on imitation provides a fertile means of understanding how capitalism is forging a new affective technology which conforms to a logic of propensity rather than to means-end reasoning. This it does by drawing together a biological understanding of semiconscious cognition with various practical geometric arts so as to re-stage the world as a series of susceptible situations which can be ridden rather than rigidly controlled. The paper examines the advent of technologies (...)
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  39. added 2015-03-18
    Causal Propensity: A Review.I. J. Good - 1984 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1984:829 - 850.
    The causal propensity of an event F to cause another event E is explicated as the weight of evidence against F if E does not occur, given the state of the universe just before F occurred. This definition, first given in 1961, is sharpened, defended, and applied to several examples. In this definition the concept of weight of evidence in favor of a proposition, provided by another one, is to be understood in a technical sense that is intended to capture (...)
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  40. added 2015-03-17
    Some Considerations on Conditional Chances.Paul Humphreys - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (4):667-680.
    Four interpretations of single-case conditional propensities are described and it is shown that for each a version of what has been called ‘Humphreys' Paradox’ remains, despite the clarifying work of Gillies, McCurdy and Miller. This entails that propensities cannot be a satisfactory interpretation of standard probability theory. Introduction The basic issue The formal paradox Values of conditional propensities Interpretations of propensities McCurdy's response Miller's response Other possibilities 8.1 Temporal evolution 8.2 Renormalization 8.3 Causal influence Propensities to generate frequencies Conclusion.
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  41. added 2015-03-17
    Single Case Probabilities and the Social World: The Application of Popper's Propensity Interpretation.Malcolm Williams - 1999 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 29 (2):187–201.
    This paper is a re-examination of Popper’s propensity interpretation of probability in respect of its potential methodological value in social science. A long standing problem for the frequency interpretation of probability is that whilst it is able to treat both aggregate and individual phenomena as having measurable properties, it cannot explain the ontological relationship between such concrete individual cases and aggregates. Popper’s interpretation treats single cases as both real, but also as realisations of a propensity to occur. The frequency and (...)
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  42. added 2015-03-17
    The War Propensity of International Systems.Dina A. Zinnes & Robert G. Muncaster - 1988 - Synthese 76 (2):307 - 331.
    The conjecture that international system structure determines war propensity has met with mixed results in past theory in political science. This question is reexamined within the context of a dynamic model of inter-nation hostile behavior. System structure is defined in terms of the degrees of grievance, fear, etc., among nations and also in terms of the qualitative patterns of hostile behavior that are possible. Propensity for war is measured in terms of the likelihood of progress to war within a given (...)
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  43. added 2015-03-17
    Propensity Representations of Probability.Patrick Suppes - 1987 - Erkenntnis 26 (3):335 - 358.
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  44. added 2015-03-17
    Propensity and Necessity.Ronald N. Giere - 1979 - Synthese 40 (3):439 - 451.
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  45. added 2015-03-17
    Propensity: Popper or Peirce?Richard W. Miller - 1975 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 26 (2):123-132.
  46. added 2015-03-17
    A Single Case Propensity Theory of Explanation.James H. Fetzer - 1974 - Synthese 28 (2):171 - 198.
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  47. added 2015-03-17
    The Propensity Theory of Probability.Alan R. White - 1972 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 23 (1):35-43.
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  48. added 2014-11-15
    The Great Quantum Muddle. [REVIEW]N. D. Mermin - 1983 - Philosophy of Science 50 (4):651-.
  49. added 2014-05-16
    A Critique of Empiricist Propensity Theories.Mauricio Suárez - 2014 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 4 (2):215-231.
    I analyse critically what I regard as the most accomplished empiricist account of propensities, namely the long run propensity theory developed by Donald Gillies . Empiricist accounts are distinguished by their commitment to the ‘identity thesis’: the identification of propensities and objective probabilities. These theories are intended, in the tradition of Karl Popper’s influential proposal, to provide an interpretation of probability that renders probability statements directly testable by experiment. I argue that the commitment to the identity thesis leaves empiricist theories, (...)
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  50. added 2014-05-16
    Time and Chance Propensities.Carl Hoefer - 2011 - In Craig Callender (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Time. Oxford University Press.
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1 — 50 / 119