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Daniel G. Campos (2009). The Framing of the Fundamental Probability Set: A Historical Case Study on the Context of Mathematical Discovery.

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    "The Real 'Letter to Arbuthnot'? A Motive For Hume's Probability Theory in an Early Modern Design Argument".Catherine Kemp - 2014 - British Journal for the History of Philosophy 22 (3):468-491.
    John Arbuthnot's celebrated but flawed paper in the Philosophical Transactions of 1711-12 is a philosophically and historically plausible target of Hume's probability theory. Arbuthnot argues for providential design rather than chance as a cause of the annual birth ratio, and the paper was championed as a successful extension of the new calculations of the value of wagers in games of chance to wagers about natural and social phenomena. Arbuthnot replaces the earlier anti-Epicurean notion of chance with the equiprobability assumption of (...)
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