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Notes on probability and induction

Synthese 25 (3-4):269 - 298 (1973)

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  1. Inductive Logic as Explication: The Evolution of Carnap’s Notion of Logical Probability.Marta Sznajder - 2018 - The Monist 101 (4):417-440.
    According to a popular interpretation, Carnap’s interpretation of probability had evolved from a logical towards a subjective conception. However Carnap himself insisted that his basic philosophical view of probability was always the same. I address this apparent clash between Carnap's self-identification and the subsequent interpretations of his work. Following its original intentions, I reconstruct inductive logic as an explication. The emerging picture is of a versatile linguistic framework, whose main function is not the discovery of objective logical relations in the (...)
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  • The principle of signature exchangeability.Tahel Ronel & Alena Vencovská - 2016 - Journal of Applied Logic 15:16-45.
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  • Combining Analogical Support in Pure Inductive Logic.J. B. Paris & A. Vencovská - 2016 - Erkenntnis (2):01-19.
    We investigate the relative probabilistic support afforded by the combination of two analogies based on possibly different, structural similarity (as opposed to e.g. shared predicates) within the context of Pure Inductive Logic and under the assumption of Language Invariance. We show that whilst repeated analogies grounded on the same structural similarity only strengthen the probabilistic support this need not be the case when combining analogies based on different structural similarities. That is, two analogies may provide less support than each would (...)
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  • Probabilities for multiple properties: The models of Hesse and Carnap and Kemeny. [REVIEW]Patrick Maher - 2001 - Erkenntnis 55 (2):183-215.
    In 1959 Carnap published a probability model that was meant to allow forreasoning by analogy involving two independent properties. Maher (2000)derived a generalized version of this model axiomatically and defended themodel''s adequacy. It is thus natural to now consider how the model mightbe extended to the case of more than two properties. A simple extension waspublished by Hess (1964); this paper argues that it is inadequate. Amore sophisticated one was developed jointly by Carnap and Kemeny in theearly 1950s but never (...)
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  • Probabilities for two properties.Patrick Maher - 2000 - Erkenntnis 52 (1):63-91.
    Let R(X, B) denote the class of probability functions that are defined on algebra X and that represent rationally permissible degrees of certainty for a person whose total relevant background evidence is B. This paper is concerned with characterizing R(X, B) for the case in whichX is an algebra of propositions involving two properties and B is empty. It proposes necessary conditions for a probability function to be in R(X, B), some of which involve the notion of statistical dependence. The (...)
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  • Explicating formal epistemology: Carnap's legacy as Jeffrey's radical probabilism.Christopher F. French - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 53:33–42.
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  • Pragmatic probability.Newton C. A. Costa - 1986 - Erkenntnis 25 (2):141-162.
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  • Scotching Dutch Books?Alan Hájek - 2005 - Philosophical Perspectives 19 (1):139-151.
    The Dutch Book argument, like Route 66, is about to turn 80. It is arguably the most celebrated argument for subjective Bayesianism. Start by rejecting the Cartesian idea that doxastic attitudes are ‘all-or-nothing’; rather, they are far more nuanced degrees of belief, for short credences, susceptible to fine-grained numerical measurement. Add a coherentist assumption that the rationality of a doxastic state consists in its internal consistency. The remaining problem is to determine what consistency of credences amounts to. The Dutch Book (...)
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  • What is Logical about the Logical Interpretation of Probability?Torfehnezhad Parzhad - 2016 - Abstracta 9 (1).
    My goal, in this paper, is to critically assess the categorization of “interpretations of probability” as it appears in the literature. In some sources only Carnap’s treatment of probability is understood to be the best example of “logical” probability. This is surprisingly narrow and I will here suggest otherwise. In fact, I believe that certain forms of Baysianism should also be included in the logical camp.
     
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  • In Carnap’s Defense: A survey on the concept of a linguistic framework in Carnap’s philosophy.Parzhad Torfehnezhad - 2016 - Abstracta 9 (1):03-30.
    The main task in this paper is to detail and investigate Carnap’s conception of a “linguistic framework”. On this basis, we will see whether Carnap’s dichotomies, such as the analytic-synthetic distinction, are to be construed as absolute/fundamental dichotomies or merely as relative dichotomies. I argue for a novel interpretation of Carnap’s conception of a LF and, on that basis, will show that, according to Carnap, all the dichotomies to be discussed are relative dichotomies; they depend on conventional decisions concerning the (...)
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