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Philip A. Ebert, Martin Smith & Ian Durbach (2018). Lottery Judgments: A Philosophical and Experimental Study.

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  1.  40
    Trial by Statistics: Is a High Probability of Guilt Enough to Convict?Marcello Di Bello - forthcoming - Mind:fzy026.
    Suppose one hundred prisoners are in a yard under the supervision of a guard, and at some point, ninety-nine of them collectively kill the guard. If, after the fact, a prisoner is picked at random and tried, the probability of his guilt is 99%. But despite the high probability, the statistical chances, by themselves, seem insufficient to justify a conviction. The question is why. Two arguments are offered. The first, decision-theoretic argument shows that a conviction solely based on the statistics (...)
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