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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Cambridge University Press (1982)

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  1. Now that we know how low the reliability is, what shall we do?Kurt Salzinger - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):162-162.
  • Self-deception and emotional coherence.Baljinder Sahdra & Paul R. Thagard - 2003 - Minds and Machines 13 (2):213-231.
    This paper proposes that self-deception results from the emotional coherence of beliefs with subjective goals. We apply the HOTCO computational model of emotional coherence to simulate a rich case of self-deception from Hawthorne's The Scarlet Letter.We argue that this model is more psychologically realistic than other available accounts of self-deception, and discuss related issues such as wishful thinking, intention, and the division of the self.
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  • Should the quest for optimality worry us?Nils-Eric Sahlin - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):231-231.
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  • Physicians under the Influence: Social Psychology and Industry Marketing Strategies.Sunita Sah & Adriane Fugh-Berman - 2013 - Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics 41 (3):665-672.
    It is easier to resist at the beginning than at the end.– Leonardo da VinciPhysicians often believe that a conscious commitment to ethical behavior and professionalism will protect them from industry influence. Despite increasing concern over the extent of physician-industry relationships, physicians usually fail to recognize the nature and impact of subconscious and unintentional biases on therapeutic decision-making. Pharmaceutical and medical device companies, however, routinely demonstrate their knowledge of social psychology processes on behavior and apply these principles to their marketing. (...)
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  • Rationality disputes – psychology and epistemology.Patrick Rysiew - 2008 - Philosophy Compass 3 (6):1153-1176.
    This paper reviews the largely psychological literature surrounding apparent failures of human rationality (sometimes referred to as 'the Rationality Wars') and locates it with respect to concepts and issues within more traditional epistemological inquiry. The goal is to bridge the gap between these two large and typically disconnected literatures – concerning rationality and the psychology of human reasoning, on the one hand, and epistemological theories of justified or rational belief, on the other – and to do so in such as (...)
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  • The Power of the Past: A Contribution to a Cognitive Sociology of Ethnic Conflict.Jens Rydgren - 2007 - Sociological Theory 25 (3):225-244.
    The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ways in which the past matters for ethnic conflict in the present. More specifically, by presenting a sociocognitive approach to the problem, this article sets out to specify macro-micro bridging mechanisms that explain why a history of prior conflict is likely to increase the likelihood that new conflicts will erupt. People's inclination toward simplified and/or invalid inductive reasoning in the form of analogism, and their innate disposition for ordering events in teleological (...)
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  • The Nature of the Beast and the Beast in Nature: Broadening the Perspective of Technology.Matthias Ruth - 2009 - Bulletin of Science, Technology and Society 29 (5):374-382.
    This article traces conceptualizations of technology from narrow definitions to a broader understanding that encompasses the larger social and environmental context within which technology operates. In doing so, the associated social and environmental drivers and impacts of technology are identified and conclusions are drawn for the roles of technology and technology change in achieving sustainability.
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  • Re-enchanting Realism in Debate with Kyle Stanford.Emma Ruttkamp-Bloem - 2013 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 44 (1):201-224.
    In this article, against the background of a notion of ‘assembled’ truth, the evolutionary progressiveness of a theory is suggested as novel and promising explanation for the success of science. A new version of realism in science, referred to as ‘naturalised realism’ is outlined. Naturalised realism is ‘fallibilist’ in the unique sense that it captures and mimics the self-corrective core of scientific knowledge and its progress. It is argued that naturalised realism disarms Kyle Stanford’s anti-realist ‘new induction’ threats by showing (...)
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  • Delusions, irrationality and cognitive science.John Rust - 1990 - Philosophical Psychology 3 (1):123-138.
    Abstract Studies of irrationality in cognitive psychology have usually looked at areas where humans might be expected to be rational, yet appear not to be. In this paper the other extreme of human irrationality is examined: the delusion as it occurs in psychiatric illness. A parallel is suggested between the delusion as an aberration of cognition and some illusions which result from aberrations within optics. It is argued that, because delusions are found predominantly within certain limited areas of cognitive functioning, (...)
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  • What is this thing called 'commonsense psychology'?Lynne Rudder Baker - 1999 - Philosophical Explorations 2 (1):3-19.
    What is this thing called ‘Commonsense Psychology’? The first matter to settle is what the issue is here. By ‘commonsense psychology,’ I mean primarily the systems of describing, explaining and predicting human thought and action in terms of beliefs, desires, hopes, fears, expectations, intentions and other so-called propositional attitudes. Although commonsense psychology encompasses more than propositional attitudes--e.g., emotions, traits and abilities are also within its purview--belief-desire reasoning forms the core of commonsense psychology. Commonsense psychology is what we use to explain (...)
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  • Toward openness and fairness in the review process.Byron P. Rourke - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):161-161.
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  • New philosophies of science in north America — twenty years later.Joseph Rouse - 1998 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 29 (1):71-122.
    This survey of major developments in North American philosophy of science begins with the mid-1960s consolidation of the disciplinary synthesis of internalist history and philosophy of science (HPS) as a response to criticisms of logical empiricism. These developments are grouped for discussion under the following headings: historical metamethodologies, scientific realisms, philosophies of the special sciences, revivals of empiricism, cognitivist naturalisms, social epistemologies, feminist theories of science, studies of experiment and the disunity of science, and studies of science as practice and (...)
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  • Introduction to clinical reasoning.Alison Round - 2001 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 7 (2):109-117.
  • Undermining, circularity, and disagreement.Andrew Rotondo - 2013 - Synthese 190 (3):563-584.
    Sometimes we get what seem to be good reasons for believing that we’ve misevaluated our evidence for a proposition P. In those cases, can we use our evidence for P itself to show that we haven’t misevaluated our evidence for P? I show why doing so appears to employ viciously circular reasoning. However, I then argue that this appearance is illusory in certain cases and that we sometimes can legitimately reason in that way. This claim sheds new light on the (...)
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  • Why do Spatiotemporally Restricted Regularities Explain in the Social Sciences?Alex Rosenberg - 2012 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 63 (1):1-26.
    Employing a well-known local regularity from macroeconomics, the Phillips curve, I examine Woodward’s ([2000], [2003]) account of the explanatory power of such historically restricted generalizations and the mathematical models with which they are sometimes associated. The article seeks to show that, pace Woodward, to be explanatory such generalizations need to be underwritten by more fundamental ones, and that rational choice theory would not avail in this case to provide the required underwriting. Examining how such explanatory restricted regularities are underwritten in (...)
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  • The Role of Research Ethics Committees in Making Decisions About Risk.Allison Ross & Nafsika Athanassoulis - 2014 - HEC Forum 26 (3):203-224.
    Most medical research and a substantial amount of non-medical research, especially that involving human participants, is governed by some kind of research ethics committee (REC) following the recommendations of the Declaration of Helsinki for the protection of human participants. The role of RECs is usually seen as twofold: firstly, to make some kind of calculation of the risks and benefits of the proposed research, and secondly, to ensure that participants give informed consent. The extent to which the role of the (...)
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  • Theorizing Political Psychology: Doing Integrative Social Science Under the Condition of Postmodernity.Shawn W. Rosenberg - 2003 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 33 (4):427-459.
    The field of political psychology, like the social sciences more generally, is being challenged. New theoretical direction is being demanded from within and a greater epistemological sophistication and ethical relevance is being demanded from without. In response, an outline for a reconstructed political psychology is offered here. To begin, a theoretical framework for a truly integrative political psychology is sketched. In the attempt to transcend the reductionist quality of cross-disciplinary or multidisciplinary inquiry, the theoretical approach offered here emphasizes the dually (...)
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  • Seeing truth or just seeming true?Adina Roskies - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):682-683.
  • Some indices of the reliability of peer review.Robert Rosenthal - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):160-161.
  • A Field Guide to Recent Species of Naturalism.Alex Rosenberg - 1996 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47 (1):1-29.
    This review of recent work in the philosophy of science motivated by a commitment to 'naturalism' begins by identifying three key axioms and one theorem shared by philosophers thus self-styled. Owing much to Quine and Ernest Nagel, these philosophers of science share a common agenda with naturalists elsewhere in philosophy. But they have disagreed among themselves about how the axioms and the theorems they share settle long-standing disputes in the philosophy of science. After expounding these disagreements in the work of (...)
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  • Risk interpretation: Between doctor and patient.Fernando Rosa - 2004 - Topoi 23 (2):165-176.
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  • On being accessible to consciousness.David M. Rosenthal - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):621-621.
  • Institutional Futility Policies are Inherently Unfair.Philip M. Rosoff - 2013 - HEC Forum 25 (3):191-209.
    For many years a debate has raged over what constitutes futile medical care, if patients have a right to demand what doctors label as futile, and whether physicians should be obliged to provide treatments that they think are inappropriate. More recently, the argument has shifted away from the difficult project of definitions, to outlining institutional policies and procedures that take a measured and patient-by-patient approach to deciding if an existing or desired intervention is futile. The prototype is the Texas Advance (...)
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  • A practical educational tool for teaching child‐care hospital professionals attending evidence‐based practice courses for continuing medical education to appraise internal validity in systematic reviews.Paola Rosati & Franz Porzsolt - 2013 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 19 (4):648-652.
  • Quality of Life, Disability, and Hedonic Psychology.Ron Amundson - 2010 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 40 (4):374-392.
  • The Unbearable Uncertainty Paradox.Sabine Roeser - 2014 - Metaphilosophy 45 (4-5):640-653.
    People can be risk seeking and risk averse, but people can also be uncertainty averse: in other words, if risk is at least the possibility of an unwanted affect, then it is not only the unwanted effect that they want to avoid, it can also be the uncertainty inherent in the possibility that they wish to avoid. This uncertainty aversion can even lead to a state where someone prefers a certain outcome at all costs, even when it is the worst (...)
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  • Systematic, unconscious thought is the place to anchor quantum mechanics in the mind.Thomas Roeper - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):681-682.
  • Is unreliability in peer review harmful?Henry L. Roediger - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):159-160.
  • Emotional Engineers: Toward Morally Responsible Design. [REVIEW]Sabine Roeser - 2012 - Science and Engineering Ethics 18 (1):103-115.
    Engineers are normally seen as the archetype of people who make decisions in a rational and quantitative way. However, technological design is not value neutral. The way a technology is designed determines its possibilities, which can, for better or for worse, have consequences for human wellbeing. This leads various scholars to the claim that engineers should explicitly take into account ethical considerations. They are at the cradle of new technological developments and can thereby influence the possible risks and benefits more (...)
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  • When and why do people avoid unknown probabilities in decisions under uncertainty? Testing some predictions from optimal foraging theory.Catrin Rode, Leda Cosmides, Wolfgang Hell & John Tooby - 1999 - Cognition 72 (3):269-304.
  • Faculties, modules, and computers.Daniel N. Robinson - 1985 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 8 (1):28-29.
  • A social epistemology of aesthetics: belief polarization, echo chambers and aesthetic judgement.Jon Robson - 2014 - Synthese 191 (11):2513-2528.
    How do we form aesthetic judgements? And how should we do so? According to a very prominent tradition in aesthetics it would be wrong to form our aesthetic judgements about a particular object on the basis of anything other than first-hand acquaintance with the object itself (or some very close surrogate) and, in particular, it would be wrong to form such judgements merely on the basis of testimony. Further this tradition presupposes that our actual practice of forming aesthetic judgements typically (...)
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  • Models of misbelief: Integrating motivational and deficit theories of delusions.Ryan McKay, Robyn Langdon & Max Coltheart - 2007 - Consciousness and Cognition 16 (4):932-941.
    The impact of our desires and preferences upon our ordinary, everyday beliefs is well-documented [Gilovich, T. . How we know what isn’t so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: The Free Press.]. The influence of such motivational factors on delusions, which are instances of pathological misbelief, has tended however to be neglected by certain prevailing models of delusion formation and maintenance. This paper explores a distinction between two general classes of theoretical explanation for delusions; the motivational (...)
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  • Concepts and Perceptual Belief: How (Not) to Defend Recognitional Concepts.Bradley Rives - 2010 - Acta Analytica 25 (4):369-391.
    Recognitional concepts have the following characteristic property: thinkers are disposed to apply them to objects merely on the basis of undergoing certain perceptual experiences. I argue that a prominent strategy for defending the existence of constitutive connections among concepts, which appeals to thinkers’ semantic-cum-conceptual intuitions, cannot be used to defend the existence of recognitional concepts. I then outline and defend an alternative argument for the existence of recognitional concepts, which appeals to certain psychological laws.
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  • Jonathan E. Adler and Lance J. Rips : Reasoning: Studies of Human Inference and Its Foundations: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2008, ISBN: 978-0-521-84815-2.Juho Ritola - 2014 - Argumentation 28 (4):493-500.
    IntroductionThis title is an important collection of articles on the principles, methods, and facts of human reasoning. It is of interest to argumentation theorists, philosophers, psychologists, cognitive scientists, and researchers in related fields. Out of the 53 articles, 16 were written specifically for this volume by prominent representatives of their fields, and it makes an important contribution to the research on reasoning. The size of the collection enables it to include papers from classic philosophical articles to important new theorizing on (...)
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  • Can goals be uniquely defined?Ilana Ritov - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):28-29.
  • Optimality as a prescriptive tool.Alexander H. G. Rinnooy Kan - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):230-231.
  • Daniel Kahneman: the Nobel Prize for Economics awarded for Decision-making psychology.Rino Rumiati & Nicolao Bonini - 2002 - Mind and Society 3 (1):VII-XI.
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  • Setting risk thresholds in biomedical research: lessons from the debate about minimal risk.Annette Rid - 2014 - Monash Bioethics Review 32 (1-2):63-85.
    One of the fundamental ethical concerns about biomedical research is that it frequently exposes participants to risks for the benefit of others. To protect participants’ rights and interests in this context, research regulations and guidelines set out a mix of substantive and procedural requirements for research involving humans. Risk thresholds play an important role in formulating both types of requirements. First, risk thresholds serve to set upper risk limits in certain types of research. Second, risk thresholds serve to demarcate risk (...)
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  • Epistemology Naturalized and "Epistemology Naturalized".Richard E. Grandy - 1994 - Midwest Studies in Philosophy 19 (1):341-349.
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  • Comparing the axiomatic and ecological approaches to rationality: fundamental agreement theorems in SCOP.Patricia Rich - 2018 - Synthese 195 (2):529-547.
    There are two prominent viewpoints regarding the nature of rationality and how it should be evaluated in situations of interest: the traditional axiomatic approach and the newer ecological rationality. An obstacle to comparing and evaluating these seemingly opposite approaches is that they employ different language and formalisms, ask different questions, and are at different stages of development. I adapt a formal framework known as SCOP to address this problem by providing a comprehensive common framework in which both approaches may be (...)
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  • Quinity, isotropy, and Wagnerian rapture.Georges Rey - 1985 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 8 (1):27-28.
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  • Constituent causation and the reality of mind.Georges Rey - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):620-621.
  • The reinterpretation of dreams: An evolutionary hypothesis of the function of dreaming.Antti Revonsuo - 2000 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (6):877-901.
    Several theories claim that dreaming is a random by-product of REM sleep physiology and that it does not serve any natural function. Phenomenal dream content, however, is not as disorganized as such views imply. The form and content of dreams is not random but organized and selective: during dreaming, the brain constructs a complex model of the world in which certain types of elements, when compared to waking life, are underrepresented whereas others are over represented. Furthermore, dream content is consistently (...)
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  • The logic is in the representation.Russell Revlin - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):259-259.
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  • Human inference: The notion of reasonable rationality.Russell Revlin - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (3):507.
  • Financial interests and research bias.David B. Resnik - 2000 - Perspectives on Science 8 (3):255-285.
    : In the last two decades, scientists, government officials, and science policy experts have expressed concerns about the increasing role of financial interests in research. Many believe that these interests are undermining research by causing bias and error, suppression of results, and even outright fraud. This paper seeks to shed some light on this view by (1) explicating the concept research bias, (2) describing some ways that financial interests can cause research biases, and (3) discussing some strategies for mitigating or (...)
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  • A unified framework for addiction: Vulnerabilities in the decision process.A. David Redish, Steve Jensen & Adam Johnson - 2008 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 31 (4):415-437.
    The understanding of decision-making systems has come together in recent years to form a unified theory of decision-making in the mammalian brain as arising from multiple, interacting systems (a planning system, a habit system, and a situation-recognition system). This unified decision-making system has multiple potential access points through which it can be driven to make maladaptive choices, particularly choices that entail seeking of certain drugs or behaviors. We identify 10 key vulnerabilities in the system: (1) moving away from homeostasis, (2) (...)
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  • Reasons, cognition and society.Raymond Boudon & Riccardo Viale - 2000 - Mind and Society 1 (1):41-56.
    Homo sociologicus and homo oeconomicus are, for different reasons, unsatisfactory models for the social sciences. A third model, called “rational model in the broad sense”, seems better endowed to cope with the many different expressions of rationality of the social agent. Some contributions by Weber, Durkheim and Marx are early examples of the application of this model of social explanation based on good subjective reasons. According to this model and to the evidence of cognitive anthropology, it is possible to reconcile (...)
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  • Perspectives on a Pair of Envelopes.Piers Rawling - 1997 - Theory and Decision 43 (3):253-277.
    The two envelopes problem has generated a significant number of publications (I have benefitted from reading many of them, only some of which I cite; see the epilogue for a historical note). Part of my purpose here is to provide a review of previous results (with somewhat simpler demonstrations). In addition, I hope to clear up what I see as some misconceptions concerning the problem. Within a countably additive probability framework, the problem illustrates a breakdown of dominance with respect to (...)
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