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Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion

In Vincent Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence. Springer. pp. 553-571 (2016)

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  1. Zukunft.Anja Leser - 2016 - Swiss Philosophical Preprints.
    Welche Zukunft erwartet die Menschheit? Oder müsste man fragen: Welche möglichen Zukünfte liegen im Gestaltungsbereich des Menschen? Was passiert, wenn wir eine superintelligente Maschine erfinden, die uns sogar ermöglicht, der Vergänglichkeit zu entrinnen? Welchen Einfluss haben die Technologien auf die Arbeit oder auf unsere Wahrnehmung der Zeit?
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  • Friendly Superintelligent AI: All You Need is Love.Michael Prinzing - 2017 - In Vincent Müller (ed.), The Philosophy & Theory of Artificial Intelligence. Berlin: Springer. pp. 288-301.
    There is a non-trivial chance that sometime in the (perhaps somewhat distant) future, someone will build an artificial general intelligence that will surpass human-level cognitive proficiency and go on to become "superintelligent", vastly outperforming humans. The advent of superintelligent AI has great potential, for good or ill. It is therefore imperative that we find a way to ensure-long before one arrives-that any superintelligence we build will consistently act in ways congenial to our interests. This is a very difficult challenge in (...)
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  • Nonconscious Cognitive Suffering: Considering Suffering Risks of Embodied Artificial Intelligence.Steven Umbrello & Stefan Lorenz Sorgner - 2019 - Philosophies 4 (2):24.
    Strong arguments have been formulated that the computational limits of disembodied artificial intelligence (AI) will, sooner or later, be a problem that needs to be addressed. Similarly, convincing cases for how embodied forms of AI can exceed these limits makes for worthwhile research avenues. This paper discusses how embodied cognition brings with it other forms of information integration and decision-making consequences that typically involve discussions of machine cognition and similarly, machine consciousness. N. Katherine Hayles’s novel conception of nonconscious cognition in (...)
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  • Robust Computer Algebra, Theorem Proving, and Oracle AI.Gopal P. Sarma & Nick J. Hay - unknown
    In the context of superintelligent AI systems, the term “oracle” has two meanings. One refers to modular systems queried for domain-specific tasks. Another usage, referring to a class of systems which may be useful for addressing the value alignment and AI control problems, is a superintelligent AI system that only answers questions. The aim of this manuscript is to survey contemporary research problems related to oracles which align with long-term research goals of AI safety. We examine existing question answering systems (...)
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  • Superintelligence and the Future of Governance: On Prioritizing the Control Problem at the End of History.Phil Torres - forthcoming - In Roman Yampolskiy (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security. CRC Press.
    This chapter argues that dual-use emerging technologies are distributing unprecedented offensive capabilities to nonstate actors. To counteract this trend, some scholars have proposed that states become a little “less liberal” by implementing large-scale surveillance policies to monitor the actions of citizens. This is problematic, though, because the distribution of offensive capabilities is also undermining states’ capacity to enforce the rule of law. I will suggest that the only plausible escape from this conundrum, at least from our present vantage point, is (...)
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  • How Philosophy of Mind Can Shape the Future.Susan Schneider & Pete Mandik - 2018 - In Amy Kind (ed.), Philosophy of Mind in the Twentieth and Twenty-first Centuries. New York, NY, USA: pp. 303-319.
  • Agential Risks: A Comprehensive Introduction.Phil Torres - 2016 - Journal of Evolution and Technology 26 (2):31-47.
    The greatest existential threats to humanity stem from increasingly powerful advanced technologies. Yet the “risk potential” of such tools can only be realized when coupled with a suitable agent who; through error or terror; could use the tool to bring about an existential catastrophe. While the existential risk literature has provided many accounts of how advanced technologies might be misused and abused to cause unprecedented harm; no scholar has yet explored the other half of the agent-tool coupling; namely the agent. (...)
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  • Measuring Progress in Robotics: Benchmarking and the ‘Measure-Target Confusion’.Vincent C. Müller - 2019 - In Fabio Bonsignorio, John Hallam, Elena Messina & Angel P. Del Pobil (eds.), Metrics of sensory motor coordination and integration in robots and animals. Berlin: Springer. pp. 169-179.
    While it is often said that robotics should aspire to reproduc- ible and measurable results that allow benchmarking, I argue that a fo- cus on benchmarking can be a hindrance for progress in robotics. The reason is what I call the ‘measure-target confusion’, the confusion be- tween a measure of progress and the target of progress. Progress on a benchmark (the measure) is not identical to scientific or technological progress (the target). In the past, several academic disciplines have been led (...)
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  • Autonomous Killer Robots Are Probably Good News.Vincent C. Müller - 2016 - In Ezio Di Nucci & Filippo Santonio de Sio (eds.), Drones and responsibility: Legal, philosophical and socio-technical perspectives on the use of remotely controlled weapons. Ashgate. pp. 67-81.
    Will future lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS), or ‘killer robots’, be a threat to humanity? The European Parliament has called for a moratorium or ban of LAWS; the ‘Contracting Parties to the Geneva Convention at the United Nations’ are presently discussing such a ban, which is supported by the great majority of writers and campaigners on the issue. However, the main arguments in favour of a ban are unsound. LAWS do not support extrajudicial killings, they do not take responsibility away (...)
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  • Editorial: Risks of Artificial Intelligence.Vincent C. Müller - 2016 - In Risks of artificial intelligence. CRC Press - Chapman & Hall. pp. 1-8.
    If the intelligence of artificial systems were to surpass that of humans significantly, this would constitute a significant risk for humanity. Time has come to consider these issues, and this consideration must include progress in AI as much as insights from the theory of AI. The papers in this volume try to make cautious headway in setting the problem, evaluating predictions on the future of AI, proposing ways to ensure that AI systems will be beneficial to humans – and critically (...)
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  • Inteligencia artificial y ética de la responsabilidad.Antonio Luis Terrones Rodriguez - 2018 - Cuestiones de Filosofía 22 (4):141-170.
    La Inteligencia Artificial (IA) ha supuesto un gran avance para la humanidad en diversos campos; sin embargo, eso no implica que su actividad esté exenta de reflexión ética. La humanidad está enfrentado, y va a enfrentar en el futuro, numerosos desafíos que van a obligar a elaborar nuevas ideas para poder vivir a la altura de los tiempos. Entre esos desafíos encontramos el laboral y económico, el de mejoramiento humano, el militar y de seguridad y el político y jurídico, entre (...)
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