Randomness, uncertainty, and lack of regularity had concerned savants for a long time. As early as the seventeenth century, Blaise Pascal conceived the arithmetic of chance for gambling. At the height of positional astronomy, mathematicians developed a theory of errors to cope with random deviations in astronomical observations. In the nineteenth century, pioneers of statistics employed probabilistic calculus to define “normal” and “pathological” in the distribution of social characters, while physicists devised the statistical-mechanical interpretation of thermodynamic effects. By the end (...) of the century, a probabilistic worldview—as historians Lorrain Daston, Theodore Porter, and Stephen Stigler. (shrink)

In this paper, we examine the pioneering research on electronic noise—the current fluctuations in electronic circuit devices due to their intrinsic physical characteristics rather than their defects—in Germany and the U.S. during the 1910s–1920s. Such research was not just another demonstration of the general randomness of the physical world Einstein’s work on Brownian motion had revealed. In contrast, we stress the importance of a particular engineering context to electronic noise studies: the motivation to design and improve high-gain thermionic-tube amplifiers for (...) radio and wired communications. Engineering scientists’ endeavors to understand electronic noise started in 1918, when Walter Schottky at Siemens formulated a theory of “shot noise,” current fluctuations owing to the random emissions of discrete electrons in a tube. Schottky’s theory was revised and experimentally tested at Siemens, General Electric, and AT&T during the 1920s, leading to the discoveries of several other types of noise and an increasing interest in the thermal fluctuations in electronic circuits. In 1925–1928, J.B. Johnson and Harry Nyquist at Bell Labs developed a theory of thermal noise for any electrical resistor at a non-zero temperature. Although these studies were initiated to chart the fundamental performance limit of electronic technology, they ended up assisting the empirical determination of individual electronic components’ characteristics. (shrink)

The correspondence between Richard von Mises and George Pólya of 1919/20 contains reflections on two well-known articles by von Mises on the foundations of probability in the Mathematische Zeitschrift of 1919, and one paper from the Physikalische Zeitschrift of 1918. The topics touched on in the correspondence are: the proof of the central limit theorem of probability theory, von Mises' notion of randomness, and a statistical criterion for integer-valuedness of physical data. The investigation will hint at both the fruitfulness and (...) the limits of several of von Mises' notions such as ``collective'', ``distribution'' and ``complex adjuncts'' (characteristic functions) for further developments in probability theory and in ``directional statistics''. By pointing to the selectiveness of Pólya's criticism, the historical analysis shows the differing expectations of the two men with respect to the further development of the theory of probability and its applications. The paper thus gives a glimpse of the provisional state of the theory around 1920, before others such as P. Lévy (1886–1971) and A. N. Kolmogorov (1903–1987) stepped in and created a new paradigm for probability theory. (shrink)

A variety of ideas arising in decoherence theory, and in the ongoing debate over Everett's relative-state theory, can be linked to issues in relativity theory and the philosophy of time, specifically the relational theory of tense and of identity over time. These have been systematically presented in companion papers (Saunders 1995; 1996a); in what follows we shall consider the same circle of ideas, but specifically in relation to the interpretation of probability, and its identification with relations in the Hilbert Space (...) norm. The familiar objection that Everett's approach yields probabilities different from quantum mechanics is easily dealt with. The more fundamental question is how to interpret these probabilities consistent with the relational theory of change, and the relational theory of identity over time. I shall show that the relational theory needs nothing more than the physical, minimal criterion of identity as defined by Everett's theory, and that this can be transparently interpreted in terms of the ordinary notion of the chance occurrence of an event, as witnessed in the present. It is in this sense that the theory has empirical content. (shrink)

In a world awash in statistical patterns, should we conclude that the universe’s evolution or genesis is somehow subject to chance? I draw attention to alternatives that must be acknowledged if we are to have an adequate assessment of what chance the universe might have had.

The physiologist and neo-Kantian philosopher Johannes von Kries (1853-1928) wrote one of the most philosophically important works on the foundation of probability after P.S. Laplace and before the First World War, his Principien der Wohrscheinlich-keitsrechnung (1886, repr. 1927). In this book, von Kries developed a highly original interpretation of probability, which maintains it to be both logical and objectively physical. After presenting his approach I shall pursue the influence it had on Ludwig Wittgenstein and Friedrich Waismann. It seems that von (...) Kries's approach had more potential than recognized in his time and that putting Waismann's and Wittgenstein's early work in a von Kries perspective is able to shed light on the notion of an elementary proposition. (shrink)

Prompted by Hasok Chang’s conception of the history and philosophy of science (HPS) as the continuation of science by other means, I examine the possibility of obtaining scientific knowledge through philosophical criticism and reflection, in the light of four historical cases, concerning (i) the role of absolute space in Newtonian dynamics, (ii) the purported contraction of rods and retardation of clocks in Special Relativity, (iii) the reality of the electromagnetic ether, and (iv) the so-called problem of time’s arrow. In all (...) four cases it is clear that a better understanding of such matters can be achieved —and has been achieved— through conceptual analysis. On the other hand, however, it would seem that this kind of advance has more to do with philosophical questions in science than with narrowly scientific questions. Hence, if HPS in effect continues the work of science by other means, it could well be doing it for other ends than those that working scientists ordinarily have in mind. (shrink)

Tässä artikkelissa käsittelen Descartesin ikuisten totuuksien välttämättömyyteen liittyvää ongelmaa. Teoksessa Mietiskelyjä ensimmäisestä filosofiasta (1641–1642) Descartes nostaa esiin käsitteen ikuisista totuuksista, käyttäen esimerkkinään kolmiota. Kolmion muuttumattomaan ja ikuiseen luontoon kuuluu esimerkiksi, että sen kolme kulmaa ovat yhteenlaskettuna 180°. Se on totta kolmiosta, vaikka yhtään yksittäistä kolmiota ei olisi koskaan ollutkaan olemassa. Eräät ajattelemieni asioiden piirteet ovat siis Descartesin mukaan ajattelustani riippumattomia. Ikuisia totuuksia ovat ainakin matemaattiset ja geometriset tosiseikat sekä ristiriidan laki. Samoin Descartesin kuuluisa lause “ajattelen, siis olen” lukeutuu ikuisten totuuksien (...) joukkoon. Descartesin ikuiset totuudet olisivatkin siis loogisesti välttämättömiä. Niillä on kyseinen olemus riippumatta ulkoisten kohteiden olemassaolosta tai siitä, ajattelenko niitä lainkaan. Kuitenkin kirjeenvaihdossaan Descartes pitää itsepintaisesti kiinni käsityksestään, että ikuiset totuudet ovat Jumalan vapaasti luomia ja Jumala olisi voinut luoda ne erilailla. Näin ollen luodut ikuiset totuudet eivät tarkkaan ottaen olisikaan välttämättömiä vaan kontingentteja. Ne voisivat olla myös toisella tavalla. Artikkelin alkuun esittelen Descartesin modaalista metafysiikkaa sekä luotujen ikuisten totuuksien kontingenttiudesta seuraavia tulkinnallisia vaikeuksia. Tämän jälkeen pureudun kolmeen erilaiseen ratkaisuyritykseen kommentaarikirjallisuudessa (Frankfurt 1977; Curley 1984 & Bennett 1994) ja osoitan, miksi ne eivät riitä vastaamaan ongelmaan. Lopussa vedän johtopäätöksiä ja luonnostelen mahdollisen ratkaisun. (shrink)