Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is—for him—the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with his (...) contemporaries—Carnap and Popper—(section 2). Pointing out these differences gives an additional basis for understanding how Reichenbach saw “prediction” in the period when EP was written. Third, Reichenbach's theoretical framework of prediction is analysed following EP. This analysis studies the semantical, logical, epistemological and methodological bases of his concept of prediction (section 3). Fourth, Reichenbach's conception of prediction, based on an objectivist interpretation of probabilities, is compared with the perspective on prediction of subjective Bayesians (the present personalists). This comparison (section 4) illustrates Reichenbach's views regarding the links of prediction with probability. Fifth, innovations and elements of continuity after EP are noted which give a more complete picture of Reichenbach's thought on prediction (section 5). This contributes to a comprehensive characterization of his concept of prediction. Finally, there is an assessment of his whole view of the matter and a presentation of the ingredients for a satisfactory alternative (section 6). (shrink)

Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is—for him—the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbach's disagreements with his (...) contemporaries—Carnap and Popper—(section 2). Pointing out these differences gives an additional basis for understanding how Reichenbach saw “prediction” in the period when EP was written. Third, Reichenbach's theoretical framework of prediction is analysed following EP. This analysis studies the semantical, logical, epistemological and methodological bases of his concept of prediction (section 3). Fourth, Reichenbach's conception of prediction, based on an objectivist interpretation of probabilities, is compared with the perspective on prediction of subjective Bayesians (the present personalists). This comparison (section 4) illustrates Reichenbach's views regarding the links of prediction with probability. Fifth, innovations and elements of continuity after EP are noted which give a more complete picture of Reichenbach's thought on prediction (section 5). This contributes to a comprehensive characterization of his concept of prediction. Finally, there is an assessment of his whole view of the matter and a presentation of the ingredients for a satisfactory alternative (section 6). (shrink)

Après le rappel de différents contextes dans lesquels a émergé et s’est affirmée en Allemagne au xixe siècle l’idée de philosophie scientifique, l’article a pour objectif une description de la conception de Reichenbach, contrastée avec celle de plusieurs membres du Cercle de Vienne. Je montre en particulier le lien épistémologique et institutionnel entre le groupe de Reichenbach à Berlin et celui de Göttingen autour de Hilbert. J’esquisse aussi un rapprochement entre certains traits caractéristiques de la position de Reichenbach et la (...) conception régionale de l’épistémologie historique française. L’axiomatique et la métamathématique de Hilbert sont bien entendu une racine commune aux orientations suivies par Reichenbach et les épistémologues français des mathématiques. Mais l’impact de la théorie de la relativité, de la mécanique quantique et du calcul des probabilités ne fut pas moins grand et renouvela en profondeur les concepts de temps, d’espace, de substance, de cause et de loi dans une mise en question des thèses du transcendantalisme kantien qui tourna l’intérêt vers les pratiques scientifiques effectives. (shrink)

Après le rappel de différents contextes dans lesquels a émergé et s’est affirmée en Allemagne au xixe siècle l’idée de philosophie scientifique, l’article a pour objectif une description de la conception de Reichenbach, contrastée avec celle de plusieurs membres du Cercle de Vienne. Je montre en particulier le lien épistémologique et institutionnel entre le groupe de Reichenbach à Berlin et celui de Göttingen autour de Hilbert. J’esquisse aussi un rapprochement entre certains traits caractéristiques de la position de Reichenbach et la (...) conception régionale de l’épistémologie historique française. L’axiomatique et la métamathématique de Hilbert sont bien entendu une racine commune aux orientations suivies par Reichenbach et les épistémologues français des mathématiques. Mais l’impact de la théorie de la relativité, de la mécanique quantique et du calcul des probabilités ne fut pas moins grand et renouvela en profondeur les concepts de temps, d’espace, de substance, de cause et de loi dans une mise en question des thèses du transcendantalisme kantien qui tourna l’intérêt vers les pratiques scientifiques effectives. (shrink)

The Berlin Group was an equal partner with the Vienna Circle as a school of scientific philosophy, albeit one that pursued an itinerary of its own. But while the latter presented its defining projects in readily discernible terms and became immediately popular, the Berlin Group, whose project was at least as sig-nificant as that of its Austrian counterpart, remained largely unrecognized. The task of this chapter is to distinguish the Berliners’ work from that of the Vienna Circle and to bring (...) to light its impact in the history of scientific philosophy. (shrink)