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Probability and Partial Belief

In Frank Ramsey (ed.), Philosophical Papers. Cambridge University Press. pp. 95-96 (1929)

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  1. Comparativism and the Measurement of Partial Belief.Edward J. R. Elliott - forthcoming - Erkenntnis.
    According to comparativism, degrees of belief are reducible to a system of purely ordinal comparisons of relative confidence. (For example, being more confident that P than that Q, or being equally confident that P and that Q.) In this paper, I raise several general challenges for comparativism, relating to (i) its capacity to illuminate apparently meaningful claims regarding intervals and ratios of strengths of belief, (ii) its capacity to draw enough intuitively meaningful and theoretically relevant distinctions between doxastic states, and (...)
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  • The Quest for Plausibility: A Negative Heuristic for Science?R. W. Byrne - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):217-218.
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  • The Quest for Optimality: A Positive Heuristic of Science?Paul J. H. Schoemaker - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):205-215.
    This paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of one of science's most pervasive and flexible metaprinciples;optimalityis used to explain utility maximization in economics, least effort principles in physics, entropy in chemistry, and survival of the fittest in biology. Fermat's principle of least time involves both teleological and causal considerations, two distinct modes of explanation resting on poorly understood psychological primitives. The rationality heuristic in economics provides an example from social science of the potential biases arising from the extreme flexibility of (...)
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  • Dutch Books, Additivity, and Utility Theory.Brad Armendt - 1993 - Philosophical Topics 21 (1):1-20.
    One guide to an argument's significance is the number and variety of refutations it attracts. By this measure, the Dutch book argument has considerable importance.2 Of course this measure alone is not a sure guide to locating arguments deserving of our attention—if a decisive refutation has really been given, we are better off pursuing other topics. But the presence of many and varied counterarguments at least suggests that either the refutations are controversial, or that their target admits of more than (...)
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  • Games, Beliefs and Credences.Brian Weatherson - 2016 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 92 (2):209-236.
    In previous work I’ve defended an interest-relative theory of belief. This paper continues the defence. It has four aims. -/- 1. To offer a new kind of reason for being unsatis ed with the simple Lockean reduction of belief to credence. 2. To defend the legitimacy of appealing to credences in a theory of belief. 3. To illustrate the importance of theoretical, as well as practical, interests in an interest-relative account of belief. 4. To revise my account to cover propositions (...)
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  • Keynes and Wittgenstein.Brian Weatherson - manuscript
    Three recent books have argued that Keynes’s philosophy, like Wittgenstein’s, underwent a radical foundational shift. It is argued that Keynes, like Wittgenstein, moved from an atomic Cartesian individualism to a more conventionalist, intersubjective philosophy. It is sometimes argued this was caused by Wittgenstein’s concurrent conversion. Further, it is argued that recognising this shift is important for understanding Keynes’s later economics. In this paper I argue that the evidence adduced for these theses is insubstantial, and other available evidence contradicts their claims.
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  • Leibniz’s Theory of Universal Expression Explicated.Ari Maunu - 2008 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 38 (2):247-267.
    According Leibniz's thesis of universal expression, each substance expresses the whole world, i.e. all other substances, or, as Leibniz frequently states, from any given complete individual notion (which includes, in internal terms, everything truly attributable to a substance) one can "deduce" or "infer" all truths about the whole world. On the other hand, in Leibniz's view each (created) substance is internally individuated, self-sufficient and independent of other (created) substances. What may be called Leibniz's expression problem is, how to reconcile these (...)
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  • Should the Quest for Optimality Worry Us?Nils-Eric Sahlin - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):231-231.
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  • Vaulting Optimality.Peter Dayan & Jon Oberlander - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):221-222.
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  • The Strategy of Optimality Revisited.Paul J. H. Schoemaker - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):237-245.
  • Is Economics Still Immersed in the Old Concepts of the Enlightenment Era?Andrzej P. Wierzbicki - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):236-237.
  • The Human Being as a Bumbling Optimalist: A Psychologist's Viewpoint.Masanao Toda - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):235-235.
  • Optimal Confusion.Stephanie Stolarz-Fantino & Edmund Fantino - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):234-234.
  • Avoid the Push-Pull Dilemma in Explanation.Kenneth M. Steele - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):233-234.
  • Extremum Descriptions, Process Laws and Minimality Heuristics.Elliott Sober - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):232-233.
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  • Rational Agents, Real People and the Quest for Optimality.Eldar Shafir - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):232-232.
  • Optimality as a Prescriptive Tool.Alexander H. G. Rinnooy Kan - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):230-231.
  • Don't Just Sit There, Optimise Something.J. H. P. Paelinck - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):230-230.
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  • The Infinite Regress of Optimization.Philippe Mongin - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):229-230.
    A comment on Paul Schoemaker's target article in Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 14 (1991), p. 205-215, "The Quest for Optimality: A Positive Heuristic of Science?" (https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X00066140). This comment argues that the optimizing model of decision leads to an infinite regress, once internal costs of decision (i.e., information and computation costs) are duly taken into account.
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  • Two Dynamic Criteria for Validating Claims of Optimality.Geoffrey F. Miller - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):228-229.
  • Complexity and Optimality.Dauglas A. Miller & Steven W. Zucker - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):227-228.
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  • Straining the Word “Optimal”.James E. Mazur - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):227-227.
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  • The Example of Psychology: Optimism, Not Optimality.Daniel S. Levine - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):225-226.
  • Why Optimality is Not Worth Arguing About.Stephen E. G. Lea - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):225-225.
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  • Natural Science, Social Science and Optimality.Oleg Larichev - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):224-225.
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  • Types of Optimality: Who is the Steersman?Michael E. Hyland - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):223-224.
  • Optimality and Constraint.David A. Helweg & Herbert L. Roitblat - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):222-223.
  • Organisms, Scientists and Optimality.Michael Davison - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):220-221.
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  • Natural Selection Doesn't Have Goals, but It's the Reason Organisms Do.Martin Daly - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):219-220.
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  • Some Optimality Principles in Evolution.James F. Crow - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):218-219.
  • Criteria for Optimality.Michel Cabanac - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):218-218.
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  • Optimality as a Mathematical Rhetoric for Zeroes.Fred L. Bookstein - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):216-217.
  • Optimality as an Evaluative Standard in the Study of Decision-Making.Jonathan Baron - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):216-216.
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  • Optimality and Human Memory.John R. Anderson - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):215-216.
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