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Dutch Book against Lewis

Synthese 199 (3-4):9185-9217 (2021)

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  1. A graph model for probabilities of nested conditionals.Anna Wójtowicz & Krzysztof Wójtowicz - 2022 - Linguistics and Philosophy 45 (3):511-558.
    We define a model for computing probabilities of right-nested conditionals in terms of graphs representing Markov chains. This is an extension of the model for simple conditionals from Wójtowicz and Wójtowicz. The model makes it possible to give a formal yet simple description of different interpretations of right-nested conditionals and to compute their probabilities in a mathematically rigorous way. In this study we focus on the problem of the probabilities of conditionals; we do not discuss questions concerning logical and metalogical (...)
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  • A Minimal Probability Space for Conditionals.Anna Wójtowicz & Krzysztof Wójtowicz - 2023 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 52 (5):1385-1415.
    One of central problems in the theory of conditionals is the construction of a probability space, where conditionals can be interpreted as events and assigned probabilities. The problem has been given a technical formulation by van Fraassen (23), who also discussed in great detail the solution in the form of Stalnaker Bernoulli spaces. These spaces are very complex – they have the cardinality of the continuum, even if the language is finite. A natural question is, therefore, whether a technically simpler (...)
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  • Dutch‐booking indicative conditionals.Melissa Fusco - 2022 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 107 (1):208-231.
    Recent literature on Stalnaker's Thesis, which seeks to vindicate it from Lewis (1976)'s triviality results, has featured linguistic data that is prima facie incompatible with Conditionalization in iterated cases (McGee 1989, 2000; Kaufmann 2015; Khoo & Santorio, 2018). In a recent paper (2021), Goldstein & Santorio make a bold claim: they hold that these departures light the way to a new, non‐conditionalizing theory of rational update.Here, I consider whether this new form of update is subject to a Dutch book. On (...)
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