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  1. An Eye-Tracking Study of Statistical Reasoning With Tree Diagrams and 2 × 2 Tables.Georg Bruckmaier, Karin Binder, Stefan Krauss & Han-Min Kufner - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
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  • Effect of Probability Information on Bayesian Reasoning: A Study of Event-Related Potentials.Zifu Shi, Lin Yin, Jian Dong, Xiang Ma & Bo Li - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
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  • Why Can Only 24% Solve Bayesian Reasoning Problems in Natural Frequencies: Frequency Phobia in Spite of Probability Blindness.Patrick Weber, Karin Binder & Stefan Krauss - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  • Can Evolution Get Us Off the Hook? Evaluating the Ecological Defence of Human Rationality.Maarten Boudry, Michael Vlerick & Ryan McKay - 2015 - Consciousness and Cognition 33:524-535.
    This paper discusses the ecological case for epistemic innocence: does biased cognition have evolutionary benefits, and if so, does that exculpate human reasoners from irrationality? Proponents of ‘ecological rationality’ have challenged the bleak view of human reasoning emerging from research on biases and fallacies. If we approach the human mind as an adaptive toolbox, tailored to the structure of the environment, many alleged biases and fallacies turn out to be artefacts of narrow norms and artificial set-ups. However, we argue that (...)
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  • Natural Frequencies Improve Bayesian Reasoning in Simple and Complex Inference Tasks.Ulrich Hoffrage, Stefan Krauss, Laura Martignon & Gerd Gigerenzer - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  • On the Supposed Evidence for Libertarian Paternalism.Gerd Gigerenzer - 2015 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology 6 (3):361-383.
    Can the general public learn to deal with risk and uncertainty, or do authorities need to steer people’s choices in the right direction? Libertarian paternalists argue that results from psychological research show that our reasoning is systematically flawed and that we are hardly educable because our cognitive biases resemble stable visual illusions. For that reason, they maintain, authorities who know what is best for us need to step in and steer our behavior with the help of “nudges.” Nudges are nothing (...)
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  • The Frequency Hypothesis and Evolutionary Arguments.Yuichi Amitani - 2008 - Kagaku Tetsugaku 41 (1):79-94.
    Gerd Gigerenzer's views on probabilistic reasoning in humans have come under close scrutiny. Very little attention, however, has been paid to his evolutionary component of his argument. According to Gigerenzer, reasoning about probabilities as frequencies is so common today because it was favored by natural selection in the past. This paper presents a critical examination of this argument. It will show first, that, _pace_ Gigerenzer, there are some reasons to believe that using the frequency format was not more adaptive than (...)
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  • Two Types of Ecological Rationality: Or How to Best Combine Psychology and Economics.Erwin Dekker & Blaž Remic - forthcoming - Journal of Economic Methodology:1-16.
    ABSTRACTThis paper argues that the notion of ‘ecological rationality’ as used in economics has two rival meanings. The first type of ecological rationality as used by Gerd Gigerenzer, refers to the use of cognitive strategies, heuristics in particular, in real-world decisions. The second type of ecological rationality as used in the work of Vernon Smith, refers to the rationality of cognitive systems consisting of multiple individuals, institutions, and social norms. We demonstrate in this paper that their use originates in different (...)
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  • Bayesian Probability Estimates Are Not Necessary to Make Choices Satisfying Bayes’ Rule in Elementary Situations.Artur Domurat, Olga Kowalczuk, Katarzyna Idzikowska, Zuzanna Borzymowska & Marta Nowak-Przygodzka - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  • Comprehension and Computation in Bayesian Problem Solving.Eric D. Johnson & Elisabet Tubau - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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  • The Logic of Natural Sampling.David E. Over - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):277-277.
    Barbey & Sloman (B&S) relegate the logical rule of the excluded middle to a footnote. But this logical rule is necessary for natural sampling. Making the rule explicit in a logical tree can make a problem easier to solve. Examples are given of uses of the rule that are non-constructive and not reducible to a domain-specific module.
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  • Children’s Understanding of Posterior Probability.Vittorio Girotto & Michel Gonzalez - 2008 - Cognition 106 (1):325-344.
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  • The Origins of Probabilistic Inference in Human Infants.Stephanie Denison & Fei Xu - 2014 - Cognition 130 (3):335-347.
  • Evolutionary Modules and Bayesian Facilitation: The Role of General Cognitive Resources.Elise Lesage, Gorka Navarrete & Wim De Neys - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (1):27 - 53.
    (2013). Evolutionary modules and Bayesian facilitation: The role of general cognitive resources. Thinking & Reasoning: Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 27-53. doi: 10.1080/13546783.2012.713177.
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  • Base-Rate Respect: From Statistical Formats to Cognitive Structures.Aron K. Barbey & Steven A. Sloman - 2007 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):287-292.
    The commentaries indicate a general agreement that one source of reduction of base-rate neglect involves making structural relations among relevant sets transparent. There is much less agreement, however, that this entails dual systems of reasoning. In this response, we make the case for our perspective on dual systems. We compare and contrast our view to the natural frequency hypothesis as formulated in the commentaries.
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  • Towards a Pattern-Based Logic of Probability Judgements and Logical Inclusion “Fallacies”.Momme von Sydow - 2016 - Thinking and Reasoning 22 (3):297-335.
    ABSTRACTProbability judgements entail a conjunction fallacy if a conjunction is estimated to be more probable than one of its conjuncts. In the context of predication of alternative logical hypothesis, Bayesian logic provides a formalisation of pattern probabilities that renders a class of pattern-based CFs rational. BL predicts a complete system of other logical inclusion fallacies. A first test of this prediction is investigated here, using transparent tasks with clear set inclusions, varying in observed frequencies only. Experiment 1 uses data where (...)
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  • The Natural Frequency Hypothesis and Evolutionary Arguments.Yuichi Amitani - 2015 - Mind and Society 15 (1):1-19.
    In the rationality debate, Gerd Gigerenzer and his colleagues have argued that human’s apparent inability to follow probabilistic principles does not mean our irrationality, because we can do probabilistic reasoning successfully if probability information is given in frequencies, not percentages (the natural frequency hypothesis). They also offered an evolutionary argument to this hypothesis, according to which using frequencies was evolutionarily more advantageous to our hominin ancestors than using percentages, and this is why we can reason correctly about probabilities in the (...)
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  • General Practitioners Are the Future Intermediaries.Roman Boutellier & Frank A. Zoller - 2011 - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 17 (2):405-409.