Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-tj2md Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T03:50:24.171Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Case for Modelled Democracy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 May 2020

Kristoffer Ahlstrom-Vij*
Affiliation:
Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK

Abstract

The fact that most of us are ignorant on politically relevant matters presents a problem for democracy. In light of this, some have suggested that we should impose epistemic constraints on democratic participation, and specifically that the franchise be restricted along competency lines – a suggestion that in turn runs the risk of violating a long-standing condition on political legitimacy to the effect that legitimate political arrangements cannot be open to reasonable objections. The present paper therefore outlines a way to solve the problem of public ignorance without restricting the franchise. The proposal involves filtering the electoral input of a universal franchise through a statistical model that simulates what the public's political preferences would have been, had they been informed on politically relevant matters. The result is modelled democracy. A case is made that such democracy both solves the problem of public ignorance and satisfies the aforementioned condition on legitimacy.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ahlstrom-Vij, K. (Forthcoming). ‘The Epistemic Benefits of Democracy: A Critical Assessment.’ In Fricker, M., Graham, P., Henderson, D., Pedersen, N. and Wyatt, J. (eds), The Routledge Handbook of Social Epistemology. New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
Althaus, S. (2003). Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arrow, K. (1977). ‘Current Developments in the Theory of Social Choice.’ Social Research 44, 607–22.Google Scholar
Bartels, L. (1996). ‘Uninformed Voters: Information Effects in Presidential Elections.’ American Journal of Political Science 40(1), 194230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, A.J. (2009). In Time of War: Understanding Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhatti, Y. (2010). ‘What Would Happen if We Were Better Informed? Simulating Increased Knowledge in European Parliament (EP) Elections?Representation 46(4), 391410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binder, M., Childers, M., Hopkins, A. and Hampsey, C. (2016). ‘In Voters’ Minds, Are All Politics Really Local? Comparing Voters Knowledge of National and Local Politics.’ In State Policies and Policy Conference, Dallas, 19–21 May. https://www.utdallas.edu/sppc/pdf/Binder%20Childers%20Hopkins%20and%20Hampsey.pdf.Google Scholar
Bishop, G., Oldendick, R. and Tuchfarber, A. (1983). ‘Effects of Filter Questions in Public Opinion Surveys.’ Public Opinion Quarterly 47, 528–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blais, A., Gidengil, E., Fournier, P. and Nevitte, N. (2008). ‘Information, Visibility and Elections: Why Electoral Outcomes Differ When Voters are Better Informed.’ European Journal of Political Research 48, 256–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brandt, R. (1979). A Theory of the Good and the Right. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Brennan, J. (2011). ‘The Right to a Competent Electorate.’ Philosophical Quarterly 61(245), 700–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brennan, J. (2016). Against Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Buchanan, A. (2004). ‘Political Liberalism and Social Epistemology.’ Philosophy and Public Affairs 31(2), 95130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caplan, B. (2007). The Myth of the Rational Voter. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Chalmers, P. (2012). ‘A Multidimensional Item Response Theory Package for the R Environment.’ Journal of Statistical Software 48(6), 129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, T. (2013). ‘Democracy.’ In LaFollette, H. (ed.), The International Encyclopedia of Ethics, pp. 1250–63. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
Condorcet, M.J.A.N.C. (1976 [1785]). ‘Essay on the Application of Mathematics to the Theory of Decision-making.’ In Baker, K.M. (ed.), Condorcet: Selected Writings. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill.Google Scholar
Converse, P. (1990). ‘Popular Representation and the Distribution of Information.’ In Ferejohn, J. and Kuklinski, J. (eds), Information and Democratic Process, pp. 369–88. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, M.X. and Keeter, S. (1993). ‘Measuring Political Knowledge: Putting First Things First.’ American Journal of Political Science 37(4), 1179–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delli Carpini, M.X. and Keeter, S. (1996). What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York, NY: Harper.Google Scholar
Estlund, D. (1990). ‘Democracy Without Preference.’ Philosophical Review 99(3), 397423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Estlund, D. (2006). ‘The Expert/Boss Fallacy.’ In Majority Fools? Rationality and the Limits of Democracy, www.cato-unbound.org/issues/november-2006/majority-fools-irrationality-limits-democracy.Google Scholar
Estlund, D. (2008). Democratic Authority: A Philosophical Framework. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Feinberg, J. (1986). The Moral Limits of Criminal Law, Volume Three: Harm to Self. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Field, T. (2015). ‘Who Votes? Congressional Elections and the American Electorate: 1978–2014.’ United States Census Bureau. www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p20-577.pdf.Google Scholar
Fieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Schmitt, H., van der Eijk, C., Mellon, J. and Prosser, C. (2018). British Election Study, 2017: Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey [data collection]. http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-8418-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishkin, J. (1999). ‘Toward a Deliberative Democracy: Experimenting with an Ideal.’ In Elkin, S. and Soltan, K.E. (eds), Citizen Competence and Democratic Institutions, pp. 279290. University Park, PA: Penn State University Press.Google Scholar
Friedman, J. (1998). ‘Introduction: Public Ignorance and Democratic Theory.’ Critical Review 12(4), 397411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodin, R.E. (1995). Utilitarianism as Public Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Grill, K. (2007). ‘The Normative Core of Paternalism.’ Res Publica 13, 441–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gutmann, A. and Thompson, D. (2004). Why Deliberative Democracy? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, K.P. (2009). ‘Changing Patterns in the Impact of Information on Party Choice in a Multiparty System.’ International Journal of Public Opinion Research 21(4), 525–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harsanyi, J.C. (1997). ‘Utilities, Preferences, and Substantive Goods.’ Social Choice and Welfare 14, 129–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hawkins, S., Yudkin, D., Juan-Torres, M. and Dixon, T. (2018). Hidden Tribes: A Study of American's Polarized Landscape. New York, NY: More in Common.Google Scholar
Hong, L. and Page, S. (2004). ‘Groups of Diverse Problem Solvers Can Outperform Groups of High-Ability Problem Solvers.’ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 101(46), 16385–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hosmer, D.W. and Lemeshow, S. (2000). Applied Logistic Regression, 2nd edition. New York, NY: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Landemore, H. (2013). Democratic Reason: Politics, Collective Intelligence, and the Rule of the Many. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lauderdale, B. (2013). ‘Does Inattention to Political Debate Explain the Polarization Gap Between the U.S. Congress and Public?’ Public Opinion Quarterly 77, 223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lenz, G. (2012). Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians, Policies, and Performance. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, J.S. (1997). Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
López-Guerra, C. (2014). Democracy and Disenfranchisement. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mill, J.S. (2008 [1861]). ‘Considerations on Representative Government.’ In Gray, J. (ed.), On Liberty and Other Essays, pp. 205470. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mulligan, T. (2015). ‘On the Compatibility of Epistocracy and Public Reason.’ Social Theory and Practice 41(3), 458–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oscarsson, H. (2007). ‘A Matter of Fact? Knowledge Effects on the Vote in Swedish General Elections, 1985–2002.’ Scandinavian Political Studies 30(3), 301–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
R Core Team (2017). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.Google Scholar
Railton, P. (2003). ‘Facts and Values.’ In Facts, Values and Norms. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rapeli, L. (2014). ‘Comparing Local, National and EU Knowledge: The Ignorant Public Reassessed.’ Scandinavian Political Studies 37(4), 428–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rawls, J. (1971). A Theory of Justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rizopoulos, D. (2006). ‘ltm: An R package for Latent Variable Modelling and Item Response Theory Analyses,’ Journal of Statistical Software 17(5): 125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rousseau, J.-J. (2008 [1762]). The Social Contract, transl. Betts, C.. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Samuelson, P.A. (1938). ‘A Note on the Pure Theory of Consumers’ Behaviour.’ Economica 5(17), 6171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaker, L. (2012). ‘Local Political Knowledge and Assessments of Citizen Competence.’ Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3), 525–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, M. (1995). ‘Internal Reasons.’ Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 55(1), 109–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stenner, K. (2005). The Authoritarian Dynamic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Talisse, R. (2005). Democracy After Liberalism. New York, NY: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toka, G. (2008). ‘Citizen Information, Election Outcomes and Good Governance.’ Electoral Studies 27, 3144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, T.R. (2006). Why People Obey the Law, 2nd edition. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyler, T.R. (2011). Why People Cooperate: The Role of Social Motivations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Venables, W.N. and Ripley, B.D. (2002). Modern Applied Statistics with S, 4th edition. New York, NY: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yen, W.M. (1993). ‘Scaling Performance Assessments: Strategies for Managing Local Item Dependence.’ Journal of Educational Measurement 30, 187213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, J. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, J. (2012). ‘What Nature and Origins Leaves Out.’ Critical Review 24(4), 569642.CrossRefGoogle Scholar