Skip to main content
Log in

J. M. Keynes's position on the general applicability of mathematical, logical and statistical methods in economics and social science

  • Published:
Synthese Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The author finds no support for the claim that J. M. Keynes had severe reservations, in general, as opposed to particular, concerning the application of mathematical, logical and statistical methods in economics. These misinterpretations rest on the omission of important source material as well as a severe misconstrual ofThe Treatise on Probability (1921).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arrow, K. and F. Hahn: 1971,General Competitive Analysis, Holden-Day, San Francisco.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ayer, Alfred Julius: 1972,Probability and Evidence, Columbia University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Black, Max: 1967, ‘Probability’, in Paul Edwards (ed.),The Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Vol. VI, pp. 464–79, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borch, Karl: 1948, ‘Comment’,Economisk Tidskrift 50, 109–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borch, Karl: 1969, ‘Another Note on Keynesian Mathematics’,Economic Journal 79, 182–83.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brady, Michael E.: 1983,The Foundation of Keynes's Macroeconomics: His Logical Theory of Probability and Its Application in The General Theory and After, unpublished dissertation, UC Riverside, California.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brady, Michael E.: 1987, ‘J. M. Keynes' Theory of Evidential Weight: Its Relation to Information Processing Theory and Application in The General Theory’,Synthese 71, 37–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brady, Michael E.: 1986, ‘A Note on Milton Friedman's Application of his ‘Methodology of Positive Economics’,Journal of Economic Issues 20, 845–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Braithwaite, Richard: 1959,Scientific Explanation 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Briathwaite, Richard: 1973, ‘Foreword’,Collected Works of J. M. Keynes, Vol.VIII, xv-xxii, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Braithwaite, Richard: 1975, ‘Keynes as Philosopher’, in Milo Keynes (ed.),Essays on John Maynard Keynes, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Britto, Robert: 1973, ‘Some Recent Developments in the Theory of Economic Growth: An Interpretation’,Journal of Economic Literature 6, 1343–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • Broad, C. D.: 1918, ‘On The Relation Between Induction and Probability’.Mind 27, 389–404.

    Google Scholar 

  • Broad, C. D.: 1920, ‘On the Relation Between Induction and Probability’.Mind 29, 11–45.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruter, C. P.: 1978, ‘The Theory of Catastrophes: Some Epistemic Aspects’.Synthese 39.

  • Carabelli, Anna: 1985, ‘Keynes on Cause, Chance, and Possibility’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues, pp. 151–180, M. E. Sharpe, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carnap, Rudolf: 1950,The Logical Foundations of Probability, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carnap, Rudolf and Richard Jeffrey (eds.): 1971,Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, Vol.I, University of California Press, Berkeley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarkson, G. P. and H. Simon: 1960, ‘Simulation of Individual and Group Behavior’,American Economic Review 50, 920–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cowell, Frank: 1986,Microeconomic Principles, Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, Paul: 1978,Money and The Real World, 2nd ed., John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Debreu, Gerard: 1959,Theory of Value, John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dorfman, R., P. Samuelson, and R. Solow: 1958,Linear Programming and Economic Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dow, Alexander and Sheila Dow: 1985, ‘Animal Spirits and Rationality’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues, pp. 46–65, M. E. Sharpe, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Favereau, O.: 1983, ‘Probability and Uncertainty: After All, Keynes was Right’, presented at Conference on Methodological Issues in Keynesian Economics, Trinity College, Cambridge, England, pp. 12–14, September 1983.

  • Fischer, David H.: 1970,Historians' Fallacies, Harper and Row, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gick, M. L. and K. J. Holyoak: 1983, ‘Schema Induction and Analogical Transfer’,Cognitive Psychology 15, 1–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilmore, Robert: 1981,Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers, John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Good, I.: 1973, ‘The Contribution of Jeffries to Bayesian Statistics’, in A. Zellner (ed.),Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics, John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, Nelson: 1965,Fact, Fiction and Forecast, 2nd ed., Bobbs-Merrill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gould, Stephen J.: 1981,The Mismeasure of Man, W. W. Norton, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrod, Roy: 1951,The Life of John Maynard Keynes, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hesse, Mary B.: 1966,Models and Analysis in Science, University of Notre Dame Press, Notre Dame.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hicks, John R.: 1939,Value and Capital, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilpinen, R.: 1981, ‘Conditionals and Possible Worlds’, inContemporary Philosophy, Martinus Nijhoff, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilpinen, R.: 1980, ‘Some Epistemological Interpretations of Modal Logic’, in G. H. von Wright (ed.),Logic and Philosophy, Martinus Nijhoff, The Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hintikka, J.: 1975,Rudolf Carnap, Logical Empiricist: Materials and Perspectives, D. Reidel, Dordrecht.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hintikka, J.: 1979, ‘The Modes of Modality’, in M. J. Loux (ed.),The Possible and The Actual, Cornell University Press, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hintikka, J., Personal Communication, February 13, 1987.

  • Hodgson, Geoff: 1985, ‘Persuasion, Expectations and The Limits To Keynes’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues, pp. 10–45, M. E. Sharpe, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunt, Morton: 1982,The Universe Within, Simon and Schuster, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurwicz, Leonid: 1945, ‘The Theory of Economic Behavior’,American Economic Review 35, 909–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffery, Harold: 1939,The Theory of Probability, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffery, Harold: 1937,Scientific Inference, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jevons, W. S.: 1879,Theory of Political Economy, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, W. E.: 1932, ‘Probability: The Deductive and Inductive Problem’,Mind 61, 409–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kamin, Leon: 1986, ‘Is Crime in the Genes? The Answer May Depend on Who Chooses What Evidence’,Scientific American,254, 22–27.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kamin, Leon: 1986, ‘Reply’,Scientific American 254, 7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan, F.: 1983,The Wizards of Armageddon, Simon and Schuster, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1951,Essays in Biography, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1939, ‘Professor Tinbergen's Method’,Economic Journal 49, 559–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1940, ‘Comment’,Economic Journal 50, 154–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1964,The General Theory, Harcourt, Brace and World, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1973a, ‘A Treatise on Probability’, in D. Moggridge (ed.),The Collected Works of J. M. Keynes (CWJMK), Vol.VIII, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1973b,CWJMK. Vol.X, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M.: 1973c,CWJMK. Vol.XIV, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kirzner, I.: 1976, ‘On the Method of Austrian Economics’, in Dolan (ed.),The Foundations of Modern Austrian Economics, Sheed and Ward, Kansas City.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitcher, Philip: 1985,Vaulting Ambition: Sociobiology and the Quest for Human Nature, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Massachusetts.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kline, Morris: 1980,Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty, Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kneale, W.: 1949,Probability and Induction, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E.: 1964, ‘Recent Work in Inductive Logic’,American Philosophical Quarterly 1, 249–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E.: 1970,Probability and Inductive Logic, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, Henry E. and Howard Smokler (eds.): 1964,Studies in Subjective Probability, John Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawson, Tony: 1985, ‘Keynes, Prediction and Econometrics’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues, M. E. Sharpe, New York, pp. 116–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leamer, Edward E.: 1983, ‘Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics’,American Economic Review 73, 31–43.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K.: 1969,Convention, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K.: 1973,Counterfactuals, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewontin, R. C., Steven Rose and Leon Kamin: 1984,Not in our Genes, Random House, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Loasby, Brian J.: 1984, ‘On Scientific Methods’,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 6, 394–410.

    Google Scholar 

  • McAleer, Michael, Adrian R. Pagan and Paul A. Volker: 1985, ‘What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics’,American Economic Review,85, 293–307.

    Google Scholar 

  • Michalos, Alex C.: 1971,The Popper-Carnap Controversy, Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moggeridge, D. (ed.): 1973,Collected Works of J. M. Keynes, Vol.13, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naylor, Thomas: 1969, ‘A Third Note on Keynesian Mathematics’,Economic Journal 79, 183–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, Richard: 1973, ‘Recent Exercises in Growth Accounting: New Understanding or Dead End?’American Economic Review 63, 462–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Newman, James (ed.): 1956,The World of Mathematics, Vol.I–IV, Simon and Schuster, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicod, J.: 1930,Foundations of Geometry and Induction.

  • Ott, D., A. Ott and J. Yoo: 1975,Macroeconomic Theory, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palander, Tord: 1942, ‘Keynes' Allmanna Teori’,Economisk Tidskrift 44, 233–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patinkin, Don: 1976,Keynes' Monetary Thought: A Study of Its Development, Duke University Press, Durham.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patinkin, Don: 1979, ‘A Study of Keynes' Theory of Effective Demand’,Economic Inquiry 17, 155–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, Hashem and Ron Smith: 1985, ‘Keynes on Econometrics’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues, pp. 134–149, M. E. Sharpe, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pheby, John: 1985, ‘Are Popperian Criticisms of Keynes Justified’, in T. Lawson and M. H. Pesaran (eds.),Keynes Economics: Methodological Issues, pp. 99–115, M. E. Sharpe, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pigou, A. C. (ed.): 1925,Memorials of Alfred Marshall, Macmillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, Frank P.: 1928, ‘A Mathematical Theory of Savings’,Economic Journal 38, 543–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, Frank P.: 1926, ‘Truth and Probability’, in Richard Braithwaite (ed.),Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London., see also 1978 edition of D. Mellor.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reichenbach, Hans: 1938,Experience and Prediction, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reichenbach, Hans: 1949,The Theory of Probability, University of California, Berkeley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rescher, Nicholas: 1978,Scientific Progress, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rescher, Nicholas: 1980a,Induction, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rescher, Nicholas: 1980b,Unpopular Essays on Technological Progress, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roberts, B. and D. Schulze: 1973,Modern Mathematics and Economic Analysis, W. W. Norton, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roemer, J. E.: 1985, ‘Rationalizing Revolutionary Ideology’,Econometrics 53, 85–108.

    Google Scholar 

  • Russell, Bertrand: 1959,My Philosophical Development, George Allen and Unwin, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rutherford, Malcolm: 1984, ‘Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: A Critique’,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 6, 377–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.: 1954,The Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shackle, G. L. S.: 1984, ‘Comment’,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 6, 388–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skidelsky, Robert: 1983,John Maynard Keynes: Hopes Betrayed, Viking, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Slovic, Paul and Sarah Lichtenstein: 1983, ‘Preference Reversals: A Broader Perspective’,American Economic Review 83, 596–605.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone, Richard: 1978,Keynes, Political Arithmetic and Econometrics, The British Academy, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sussman, H. and Zahler, R.: 1978, ‘Catastrophe Theory as Applied to the Social and Biological Sciences: Critique’,Synthese 37, 117–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tinbergen, Jan: 1940, ‘On a Method of Statistical Business Cycle Research: A Reply’,Economic Journal 50, 141–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman: 1973, ‘Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability’,Cognitive Psychology 5, 207–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman: 1981, ‘The Framing of Decisions and Psychology of Choice’,Science 211, 453–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman: 1982, ‘The Psychology of Preferences’,Scientific American 246, 160–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vickers, Douglas: 1986, ‘Time, Ignorance, Surprise and Economic Decisions: A Comment’,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 9, 48–57.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Mises, Richard: 1957,Probability, Statistics and Truth, Dover Publications, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, John: 1947,The Mathematician, in Newman (ed.), 1956

    Google Scholar 

  • von Wright, G. H.: 1949,A Treatise on Induction and Probability, Routledge and Kegan Paul, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Wright, G. H.: 1957,The Logical Problem of Induction, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Wright, G. H. (ed.): 1974,Ludwig Wittgenstein — Letters to Russell, Keynes and Moore, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weintraub,.E. R.: 1983, ‘On The Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium: 1930–1954’,Journal of Economic Literature 21, 1–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weintraub, E. R.: 1977, ‘The Microfoundations of Macroeconomics: A Critical Survey’,Journal of Economic Literature 15, 1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weitzenfeld, J. S.: 1984, ‘Valid Reasoning by Analogy’,Philosophy of Science 51, 137–49.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wible, James R.: 1985, ‘An Epistemic Critique of Rational Expectations and The Neoclassical Macroeconomic Research Program’,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 7, 269–81.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, James Q. and Richard J. Herrnstein: 1985,Crime and Human Nature, Simon and Schuster, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wittgenstein, L.: 1922,Tractatus Logico Philosophicus, MacMillan, London.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

The author acknowledges substantial help from Jaakko Hintikka, but is necessarily responsible for any shortcomings.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Brady, M.E. J. M. Keynes's position on the general applicability of mathematical, logical and statistical methods in economics and social science. Synthese 76, 1–24 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00869639

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00869639

Keywords

Navigation