Abstract
This study extends experimental tests of (cumulative) prospect theory (PT) over prospects with more than three outcomes and tests second-order stochastic dominance principles (Levy and Levy, Management Science 48:1334–1349, 2002; Baucells and Heukamp, Management Science 52:1409–1423, 2006). It considers choice behavior of people facing prospects of three different types: gain prospects (losing is not possible), loss prospects (gaining is not possible), and mixed prospects (both gaining and losing are possible). The data supports the distinction of risk behavior into these three categories of prospects, Further, probability weighting and diminishing sensitivity of utility as predicted by PT are observed. Loss aversion is, however, less pronounced, except for choices where one prospect is degenerate. The data suggests that the probability of losing may be relevant for loss aversion.
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Notes
Experimental analyses for dominance criteria of higher order are discussed elsewhere (e.g., Deck and Schlesinger 2010). The independence axiom of expected utility entails itself a dominance principle that is appealing: first-order stochastic dominance (FSD) requires that the prospect should be preferred that has higher decumulative probability among all outcomes than a second prospect. FSD is a simple criterion, people agree with this principle and apply it in simple situations. However, in nontransparent choice situations many violate this dominance criterion; see Birnbaum and Navarrete (1998) and Birnbaum (2005) for experimental evidence. The aforementioned biases have little influence on FSD.
As degenerate lotteries are identified with the corresponding outcome, the prospect \((p_{1:}0,\ldots ,p_{n}:0)\), that has no gains and no losses, is identified with the reference outcome zero.
In the experiment we use prospects in which each outcome has probability \( 1/5 \); for prospects with equal outcomes the latter are displayed with the coalesced probabilities, e.g., two 1/5 chances of obtaining £5 are presented as a single 2/5 chance for £5.
As we restrict attention to prospects that have the same mean this definition makes sense. SSD is, in general, also defined for prospects without equal means. The more general definition implies our definition used here but the reverse implication does not hold.
Based on the aggregate data of Abdellaoui (2000) the decision weights of 0.33 (0.25) are approximately 0.33 for gains and 0.35 for losses (0.29 for gains and 0.29 for losses) for the one-parameter Tversky and Kahneman (1992) probability weighting function. For the two-parameter Goldstein and Einhorn (1987) probability weighting function we have \( w^{+}(0.33)\approx 0.30\) and \(w^{-}(0.33)\approx 0.35\) (\(w^{+}(0.25)\approx 0.3\) and \(w^{-}(0.25)\approx 0.29\))
See Appendix 1.
The descriptions “safer” or “riskier” are short for “safer in the SSD-sense” or “riskier in the SSD-sense,” respectively.
Adding the data for the mixed condition and a parameter, \(\lambda \), for LA gives similar estimates. \(\lambda =0.93\) (\(\mathrm{SE}=0.059\)), is found insignificantly different from one.
The estimated value for the slope of the regression line, \(\hat{\beta }=1.3\), has a standard error of 0.1732. This results in a test statistic value of 7.506 while the upper \(5\,\%\) critical value of the \(t_{1}\) distribution is 6.314. The intercept for this regression line takes the value of 37 with a standard error of 1.8707.
Because very few subjects were MWSD for gains and for losses we skip the corresponding table.
We observe that this test is equivalent to verifying if common outcomes being gains or being losses matters for choice behavior
Another explanation could be that the high number tasks involving mixed prospects and loss prospects may have generated pessimism about gaining any amount of money out of this experiment. This would explain why most subjects were not willing to pay a large proportion of their earnings from the experiment to participate again in the same study (a finding which can be interpretted as a form of loss aversion). 82 subjects provided us with such information: on average, those who lost from their fixed payment (31 subjects earned £6.64 on average) were willing to pay \(44, 66\,\%\) of their ernings; those who gained (27 subjects earned £24.22 on average) were willing to pay \(23.85\,\%\) of their earnings, and those who neither gained nor lost (24 subjects received £17) were willing to pay \(24.5\,\%\) of their earnings to repeat the experiment.
Recall that the expected pay from the experiment was £17, while the minimum one can ensure is £2. Thus, it may well be, that the frequent reoccurence of tasks with potential losses has induced many subjects to exhibit more risk neutral behavior in the SSD-sense.
However, this result is obtained using a valuation task (i.e., assessing the value of an experiment where losing is likely) which may trigger additional LA.
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Acknowledgments
Horst Zank acknowledges the financial support from the British Academy for the Research Grant SG-36804
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Appendices
Appendix 1:“Experiments on Individual Choice” instructions
(This experiment has been approved by the Senate Committee on the Ethics of Research on Human Beings of the University of Manchester)
Welcome to this session. The aim of this experiment is to investigate how people make decisions. We will ask you to make several decisions, and will record your choice. The records will be used for scientific purposes only. Our published results will not identify any individuals. Our general interest is to observe and analyse how people make decisions. We expect that 100 or more people will participate in this experiment.
This experiment is not a test. There is no way for us to tell whether your decisions are good or bad. That is for you to judge. People are different, and faced with the same situation they will prefer to take different courses of action. What you need to consider is the fact that the amount of money that you receive by participating in this experiment depends partly on your decisions, and partly on luck.
We will ask you to perform 105 tasks. Each task consists of choosing one of two gambles. An example of a task is described below:
After deciding which gamble to play by marking “left” or “right” and pressing the “Submit” button the next task appears.
Now we explain what a gamble is and how it is played. A complete gamble is visualised on the screen as 15 balls numbered consecutively from 1 to 15 with amounts of money underneath balls of the same colour. An example is the following gamble:
This is how a gamble is played: A bag contains all 15 balls. One ball is drawn at random. Each ball in the bag is equally likely to be drawn. The outcome of a gamble is the sum of money indicated underneath the drawn ball.
In the example above, the red balls indicate that £15.00 will be gained for a ball with the number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 on it. The green balls indicate that £3.00 will be lost for a ball with the number 7, 8, or 9 on it. The blue balls indicate that £5.00 will be lost for a ball with the number 10, 11, or 12 on it. Finally, the orange balls indicate that £3.00 will be gained for a ball with the number 13, 14, or 15 on it.
In this experiment there will be several types of gambles. Three examples of gambles are explained below.
Gamble type 1 A bag contains 15 balls numbered from 1 to 15. One ball is drawn at random. Each ball in the bag is equally likely to be drawn. If the ball is numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 40 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 40 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 13, 14, or 15, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). We represent this gamble with balls in the respective colours, as follows:
Gamble type 2 A bag contains 15 balls numbered from 1 to 15. One ball is drawn at random. Each ball in the bag is equally likely to be drawn. If the ball is numbered 1, 2, or 3, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 4, 5, or 6, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 7, 8, or 9, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 10, 11, or 12, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). If the ball is numbered 13, 14, or 15, the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 20 % chance of getting that amount). We represent this gamble with balls in the respective colours, as follows:
Gamble type 3 A bag contains 15 balls numbered from 1 to 15. One ball is drawn at random. Each ball in the bag is equally likely to be drawn. If the ball is numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or 15 the outcome is the amount of money indicated underneath those balls (therefore, there is a 100 % chance of getting that amount). We represent this gamble with balls in the respective colour, as follows:
Most gambles involve negative and positive amounts of money. In such a gamble one may lose some amount of money from the fixed payment (£17.00) that you receive if you complete all tasks. For example the gamble below indicates that you can either lose £15.00 with 20 % chance, or gain £2.00 with 20 % chance, or gain £10.00 with 40 % chance, or gain 15 with a 20 % chance.
If you complete all tasks, then you receive a participation fee of £17.00 plus an additional amount of money determined by your decision in one randomly selected task. The computer will select this gamble after all tasks have been completed, and we will play that gamble for real. The additional amount of money ranges from £\(-\) 15.00 to £15.00. Therefore the final sum of money that you receive will be a positive amount in the range of £2.00 and £32.00; it will never be negative.
There is enough time allocated for completing all tasks. You may withdraw from the experiment at any time. If you withdraw from the experiment, we will not be able to compensate you for your effort.
Take your time to make sure that you have understood everything. The window with these instructions will be accessible at all times. You may also ask the experimenters for help. Please do not use the “Back” button of your internet browser unless you are asked on the computer screen. Also, please do not distract (or talk to) other people taking part in the experiment. If you completed all tasks please remain seated and indicate to the experimenter that you have finished.
When you are ready to start with the tasks, press the “Proceed with the Experiment” link below, and then follow the instructions set by the computer.
Proceed with the experiment.
Appendix 2: “Experiments on Individual Choice” payment form
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Brooks, P., Peters, S. & Zank, H. Risk behavior for gain, loss, and mixed prospects. Theory Decis 77, 153–182 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-013-9396-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-013-9396-x