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Old Evidence and New Explanation III

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Carl G. Wagner
Carl G. Wagner*
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee
*
†Send requests for reprints to the author, Department of Mathematics, 121 Ayres Hall, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996–1300; email: wagner@math.utk.edu.
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Abstract

Garber (1983) and Jeffrey (1991, 1995) have both proposed solutions to the old evidence problem. Jeffrey's solution, based on a new probability revision method called reparation, has been generalized to the case of uncertain old evidence and probabilistic new explanation in Wagner 1997, 1999. The present paper reformulates some of the latter work, highlighting the central role of Bayes factors and their associated uniformity principle, and extending the analysis to the case in which an hypothesis bears on a countable family of evidentiary propositions. This extension shows that no Garber-type approach is capable of reproducing the results of generalized reparation.

Type
Bayesian Methodology
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 68 , Issue S3: No. 3 Supplement: Proceedings of the 2000 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. Part I: Contributed Papers Sep., 2001 , 2001 , pp. S165 - S175
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 2001

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Footnotes

‡

Research supported by the National Science Foundation (SES - 9984005). Thanks to Richard Jeffrey and Brian Skyrms for enlightening discussions.

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