Abstract
An approach to inference to the best explanation integrating a Popperianconception of natural laws together with a modified Hempelian account of explanation, one the one hand, and Hacking's law of likelihood (in its nomicguise), on the other, which provides a robust abductivist model of sciencethat appears to overcome the obstacles that confront its inductivist,deductivist, and hypothetico-deductivist alternatives.This philosophy of scienceclarifies and illuminates some fundamental aspects of ontology and epistemology, especially concerning the relations between frequencies and propensities. Among the most important elements of this conception is thecentral role of degrees of nomic expectability in explanation, prediction,and inference, for which this investigation provides a theoretical defense.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Cooley, A. et al.: 1995, Madam Foreman, Dove Books, Beverly Hills, CA.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1977, ‘A World of Dispositions', Synthese 34, 397–421.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1981, Scientific Knowledge, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1983, ‘Probabilistic Explanations', in P. Asquith and T. Nickles (eds), PSA 1982, Vol. 2, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, MI., pp. 194–207.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1992, ‘What's Wrong with Salmon's History', Philosophy of Science 59, 246–262.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1993, Philosophy of Science, Paragon House, New York, NY.
Fetzer, J. H.: 1998, Assassination Science, Open Court, Chicago, IL.
Fetzer, J. H.: 2000a, ‘Editor's Introduction', in J. H. Fetzer (ed.), Science, Explanation, and Rationality: Aspects of the Philosophy of Carl G. Hempel, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, pp. xv–xxix.
Fetzer, J. H.: 2000b, ‘The Paradoxes of Hempelian Explanation', in J. H. Fetzer (ed.), Science, Explanation, and Rationality: Aspects of the Philosophy of Carl G. Hempel, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, pp. 111–137.
Fetzer, J. H.: 2000c, Murder in Dealey Plaza, Open Court, Chicago, IL.
Gnedenko, B. V. and A. N. Kolmogorov: 1954, Limit Distributions for Sums of Independent Random Variables, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
Hacking, I.: 1965, Logic of Statistical Inference, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Harshorne, C. and P. Weiss (eds): 1935, The Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peirce, Vol. 5, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Hempel, C. G.: 1962, ‘Deductive-Nomological vs. Statistical Explanation', in H. Feigl and G. Maxwell (eds)., Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science, Vol. III, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN, pp. 98–169.
Hempel, C. G.: 1965, Aspects of Scientific Explanation, The Free Press, New York, NY.
Hempel, C. G.: 1966, Philosophy of Natural Science, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Hempel, C. G.: 1968, ‘Maximal Specificity and Lawlikeness in Probabilistic Explanation', Philosophy of Science 35, 116–133.
Humphreys, P.: 1981, ‘Aleatory Explanations', Synthese 48, 225–232.
Humphreys, P.: 1983, ‘Aleatory Explanations Expanded', in P. Asquith and T. Nickles (eds), PSA 1982, Vol. 2, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, MI, pp. 208–223.
Humphreys, P.: 1985, The Chances of Explanation, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Jepson, A.: 1998, ‘I was Squished by a Steamroller', The National Enquirer,19May,p. 10.
Lipton, P.: 1991, Inference to the Best Explanation, Routledge, London, UK.
Popper, K. R.: 1959, ‘The Propensity Interpretation of Probability', British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10, 25–42.
Popper, K. R.: 1965, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Harper & Row, New York, NY.
Popper, K. R.: 1990, A World of Propensities, Thoemmes Antiquarian Books, London, UK.
Railton, P.: 1978, ‘A Deductive-Nomological Model of Probabilistic Explanation', Philosophy of Science 45, 206–226.
Railton, P.: 1981, ‘Probability, Explanation, and Information', Synthese 45, 233–356.
Reichenbach, H.: 1937, Experience and Prediction, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
Reichenbach, H.: 1949, The Theory of Probability, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
Ristau, C.: 1991, ‘Aspects of the Cognitive Ethology of an Injury-Feigning Bird', in C. Ristau (ed.), Cognitive Ethology, Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, pp. 91–126.
Ruben, S.: 1985, Handbook of the Elements, Open Court, La Salle, IL.
Salmon, W. C.: 1967, Foundations of Scientific Inference, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, PA.
Salmon, W. C.: 1971, Statistical Explanation and Statistical Relevance, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, PA.
Salmon, W. C.: 1984, Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Wald, M.: 1998, ‘Agency Grounds Scores of 737's to Check Wiring', The New York Times, 11 May, p. A1 and p. A 14.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fetzer, J.H. PROPENSITIES AND FREQUENCIES: Inference to the Best Explanation. Synthese 132, 27–61 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019614716405
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019614716405